Posted on 07/30/2006 9:50:58 AM PDT by DaveLoneRanger
ASPEN - If humans do nothing to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, skiing in Aspen will be toast by 2100.
And that's probably the least of Aspen's worries, according to a new study on climate change coordinated by The Aspen Global Change Institute and unveiled this week.
Drier conditions will make it a challenge for the Roaring Fork Valley to supply its growing population with drinking water as soon as 2030, said the institute's founder, John Katzenberger. Higher temperatures and little change in precipitation will require more irrigation of hay fields and other crops.
And the Aspen area won't be able to rely as heavily on its high elevation to protect it from major wildfire outbreaks. Rising temperatures, and quicker absorption of rain and snowmelt into thirsty soil, will place greater stress on the trees of the White River National Forest, which sprawls into Eagle County.
The trees also will become more susceptible to insect outbreaks, creating the potential for longer and more intense wildfire seasons, the study concluded.
The vegetation covering Aspen Mountain probably won't look like that of today by 2100. Some plants and animals will be forced to higher elevations. Some won't make it and will probably become locally extinct, the study said. Aspen's vegetation is expected to look more like Basalt's of today, even though that town is 1,400 feet lower.
Cataclysmic change possible
Forget the effects on skiing. Global warming could bring "cataclysmic change" to everyday life in the Aspen area, said Randy Udall, director of the Community Office for Resource Efficiency and a contributor to the study.
"It's a sci-fi catastrophe - that world," Udall said.
To paint the possible picture, the Aspen Global Change Institute took three global change models that are widely accepted in the scientific community. One assumes humans get their act together in time to lower greenhouse gas emissions. A "do-nothing" scenario assumes world population continues to climb along with industrialization and emissions. The third falls in between.
Those models assume Colorado's central mountains could see a rise in annual average temperature between six and 14 degrees by 2100.
A key part of the study looked at potential impacts to Aspen's ski industry as well as to rafting and fishing. While the stakes might be higher than whether or not a ski bum can roll out of bed onto the Silver Queen Gondola in 2100, a look at the effects on skiing helps put global warming into terms Aspenites can better grasp, said Katzenberger.
"Climate change is likely to be progressively more problematic to the ski industry as the century progresses," the study said.
Temperatures would be warmer and more precipitation would fall as rain rather than snow. So ski seasons would likely have to start later and end earlier. Snowmaking wouldn't bail the industry out because of warm conditions and competition for water. Peak snowpack could occur in early February rather than March.
"By 2100, there will be no consistent winter snowpack at the base of the ski areas except possibly under the lowest greenhouse gas concentrations scenario," the study said.
Warmer springs would bring earlier peak runoff, shortening the rafting season and creating the best conditions at times when tourists traditionally don't visit, according to the study.
Earlier runoff could benefit fishing in June, but long-term implications are bleak. Lower streamflows in summer and fall along with higher water temperatures would likely harm fish and the bugs they eat.
'Lab work'
Despite the dire forecast, Katzenberger expressed hope that identifying problems will help Aspen and other resorts find ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The city conducted an earlier study to identify its major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Now, Aspen global warming project manager Dan Richardson is working on an "action plan" to reduce those emissions.
"Then the proof will be in the pudding," Katzenberger said. Five years from now, it will be evident if Aspen can successfully reduce its emissions, he said.
Susan Hassol, a highly respected environmental writer and researcher from Basalt, said efforts like Aspen's will be key to making any progress on slowing global warming. Federally mandated action is key to making a dent in the issue. However, local programs like Aspen's are like "lab work" that will show what works and what doesn't, Hassol said.
A side caption in the story says "A previous study of Aspen's greenhouse gas emissions showed that private jets were the single largest contributing factor. This picture shows jets parked at Pitkin County airport during the second week of July."
Seems like the loss of ice will make mountain climbers happy.
More junk science from the academia crowd, who is usually behind most of it. Gotta keep that study grant money coming from the taxpayers, right??? Keep trying to scare the world...
Not in Dubai!
I heard the other day that the Olympic people are trying to figure out where to hold games for either 2010 or maybe it was 2018. Chicago, and a couple of other locations were on the plate. If they are wanting winter games, you're right, they'd better find somewhere else.
Smaller snowpack, or snowpack that melts rapidly and runs off at high volumes does not help the moisture content of high altitude vegetation. The trees on my land here in NM have a moisture content of 6%. The kiln dried lumber you buy at Home Depot is 15%.
When I was a kid, I sunk a three masted schooneer with a BB gun.
Garbage in, garbage out.
Darn it, I just asked my girlfriend to go with me on a Vail vacation Dec 2102 (I'm booked up till then).
Crap, now I have to change the reservations.
Hilarious. These frickin' guys just never stop. This is like really bad parody...but they don't realize it. They just keep pumping this stuff out and the media just passes it along.
Chumps...
In 2100, I will be too old to ski anyway.
7 ice ages later and they still don't get it....
Oh no the rich libs might not get to ski. OHHHHHH I'm sick. /sarcasm
Well, they could start by cutting down or eleminating beans, tacos, hot sauce, radishes, boiled eggs and such. Would make the surrounding area better for the rest of us, too.
Seriously, when will these people wake up and realize not everything is a crisis? Granted, the environment should be monitored and we all can do our part to to not waste or contribute excess pollution, but the earth was designed to take care of itself a whole lot better than we will.
Ever stop to think that maybe we're doing such a good job of controlling air pollution that there is less particulate matter in the air, thus allowing for more ultra violet rays to enter the earths atmosphere and warm the earth's surface.
If you ask me, this is the fault of the environmentalists.
Just put runners on the wheelchair, bub, you'll be fine.
Well, there is an up side. With the predicted melting of all the glaciers, pack ice and snow around the globe, water skiing won’t be doomed.
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"We're doomed...as doomed as doomed can be y'know?" |
Uh oh, the enviralists are biting the limosuine liberal hand that feeds them. Somewhere, an executive is chewing out the managing editor, saying, "Blame it on public transportation and heavy industry, you f&^%$#@ idiot!! Rich people on private jets bring a lot of money in here!! If you screw up my social calendar and get me dis-invited from cocktail parties, you won't be able to get a job at a carwash in this county!!"
I thought you were kidding till I viewed the link.
The planes were going there anyway...
I'm looking at all the lives that will be saved by skiiers not skiing into trees, or being buried in avalanches, not to mention all the money that will be saved by not having to treat people for injuries incurred while skiing. There's always an up side to things isn't there? But poor John F'n Kerry. He'll have to take up skate-boarding in order to have someone to blame when he crashes.
Right On.
Let's see, we had 1/2 degree rise in the last 100 years, so it makes sense to assume tempretures will rise between 6-14 degrees over the next 10 years. Crap in crap out.
If only we'd been a little quicker. Sonny would still be with us.
rough sledding ahead.
hurrah for water skiing!
What part has man had to do with "all that"....
"What part has man had to do with "all that"...."
or this,
Mars Ski Report: Snow is Hard, Dense and Disappearing
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/mars_snow_011206-1.html
This global warming scare will justify a "snow tax" to pay for umm... imaginary research.
No problem, turn them into water slides ....
More water skiing.
It was 100C colder back then?
not all at once...
Women and minorities will be hardest hit.
Should make the enviro nuts happy too. They also claim that skiing is bad for the envirnoment. No skiing, then people won't travel to the mountains in the winter. Who cares about all those people working in the ski industry.
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