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Tropical Storm Chris
NOAA ^ | 2006-08-01 | Forecaster Stewart

Posted on 08/01/2006 2:44:58 AM PDT by Clive

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010840
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CHRIS... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST.

$$ FORECASTER STEWART


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: boringname; chris; chrischris; tropicalstorm; tschris; weather
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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1 posted on 08/01/2006 2:44:59 AM PDT by Clive
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To: All
5 day cone:

Note tropical storm warning at north end of the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm watch at Puerto Rico.

2 posted on 08/01/2006 2:48:51 AM PDT by Clive
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To: Clive

3 posted on 08/01/2006 2:49:31 AM PDT by FlJoePa (Success without honor is an unseasoned dish; it will satisfy your hunger, but it won't taste good.)
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To: FlJoePa
Thank you.

Somehow I screwed up the image link in my reply 2.

4 posted on 08/01/2006 2:51:31 AM PDT by Clive
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To: FlJoePa

I know allot of CHris' and trust no harm will be done by this one.

Just not right.


5 posted on 08/01/2006 2:56:11 AM PDT by Global2010 (Show me da paw Ya'll)
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To: Clive
Water vapour image:

This image and the image in FlJoePa's reply 3 will periodically update automatically.

6 posted on 08/01/2006 2:58:08 AM PDT by Clive
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To: Clive

12 days and counting till the Kentucky and South Carolina Coleman's head out for their Walt Disney World vacation. This time of year was not my 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice.
Thanks for the thread. Will keep a watchful eye to the skies.


7 posted on 08/01/2006 3:00:28 AM PDT by mother22wife21 ( NO NEGOTIATIONS WITH EVIL FOOLS)
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Comment #8 Removed by Moderator

To: FlJoePa
it will turn north ..... just some humidity .. clouds and perhaps a bit of rain

I hope ..... as I watch from Key West

.

9 posted on 08/01/2006 3:15:05 AM PDT by Elle Bee
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To: Clive

I'll bet gas prices jump a nickel just on the news that a storm has been named.


10 posted on 08/01/2006 3:17:13 AM PDT by SueRae
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To: Made in USA

Atlantic storms' absence causes midwest heat waves to intensify and lengthen..I blame ___________ fill in the blank.


11 posted on 08/01/2006 3:17:27 AM PDT by steve8714 (Michael Fox would suck your baby dry to cure Parkinson's)
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To: Elle Bee

I'm with you on that Elle Bee. No storms in the Keys this year!!!!!!!! I'm still cleaning the yard after last years mess.

Scott on Sugarloaf Key


12 posted on 08/01/2006 3:22:18 AM PDT by jsh3180
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To: jsh3180
yea .. I like the water .... but please keep it out of the new house this year

and this year I self insured

I couldn't see throwing away 18K on windstorm insurance and then have to overcome a 25K deductible

I'll just throw the money into hardening the house each year ... and say a prayer

.

13 posted on 08/01/2006 3:28:00 AM PDT by Elle Bee
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To: SueRae

Best post in accuracy.


14 posted on 08/01/2006 3:28:38 AM PDT by Global2010 (Show me da paw Ya'll)
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To: jsh3180

Prayers up for not on hard wind so you can get that yard clean.

I am still waiting for a roof replacement from a rare PNW blower last year.

Ins. paid now trying to get the contracted roofer to do his repair.

Oh. Well no money to the job untill they get busy.


15 posted on 08/01/2006 3:32:15 AM PDT by Global2010 (Show me da paw Ya'll)
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To: steve8714

>>I blame ___________ fill in the blank.

Al Gore, because he invented Global Warming.


16 posted on 08/01/2006 3:34:49 AM PDT by FreedomPoster (Guns themselves are fairly robust; their chief enemies are rust and politicians) (NRA)
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To: Clive
Yep, we have a weather eye out for this one...

CHRIS's Forecast Eye Path ™
CHRIS Forecast Eye Path ™

17 posted on 08/01/2006 3:39:25 AM PDT by backhoe (Just an Old Keyboard Cowboy, Ridin' the Trakball into the Dawn of Information)
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To: Clive
I like this little gem, from the Discussion Page:

My feeling now is that Chris should remain a significant tropical cyclone throughout the 120-h forecast period...which is in contrast to all of the global models and the GFDL model.

Forget all these dang compooters, I got me a FEELIN' !!!

18 posted on 08/01/2006 4:14:41 AM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: Clive

Too early to tell but, this one could be headed for the Gulf. Weather guys in Austin already mentioning the possibility. We could really use the rain.


19 posted on 08/01/2006 5:14:40 AM PDT by wolfcreek (You can spit in our tacos and you can rape our dogs but, you can't take away our freedom!)
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To: Clive

Aug 1st, right on schedule. It seems every year right at this time, the storms come out from hiding. Karl Rove must have his weather machine back from its spring overhaul.


20 posted on 08/01/2006 5:34:12 AM PDT by doc30 (Democrats are to morals what and Etch-A-Sketch is to Art.)
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To: Clive

Somehow I screwed up the image link in my reply 2.



You used the link to the web page [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/010840.shtml] and formatted it as an image and not the link to the gif which is:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0306W5_sm2+gif/115550W_sm.gif


21 posted on 08/01/2006 5:46:50 AM PDT by deport
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To: deport

Thank you.


22 posted on 08/01/2006 5:53:59 AM PDT by Clive
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To: All
Here is advisory 2A as of 0800 AST:
000
WTNT33 KNHC 011149
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
800 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS HEADED TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...16.8 N...59.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

23 posted on 08/01/2006 6:01:46 AM PDT by Clive
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To: Dog Gone
Are you watching the IR pictures south of Cape Verde?
24 posted on 08/01/2006 6:17:44 AM PDT by Clive
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To: FlJoePa

Uh-oh! That projected path shows Chris making a beeline for South Florida.


25 posted on 08/01/2006 7:04:10 AM PDT by PJ-Comix (Join the DUmmie FUnnies PING List for the FUNNIEST Blog on the Web)
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To: Clive

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SHOW SOME FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
SPIRAL RAIN BANDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY.
SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN
FACT...THE 850 MB ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY IS A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE
PREDICTOR IN THE 12Z SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR CHRIS.
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS
INHIBITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHRIS COULD BECOME FAVORABLY
SITUATED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND IS ABOVE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONSENSUS...ICON. IT SHOULD NOTED THAT THE
GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE CHRIS WITHIN 5 DAYS.

EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER IS NOT
WELL-DEFINED. HOWEVER THE ADVISORY LOCATION IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUADELOUPE RADAR OBSERVATIONS. INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9. CHRIS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE A RIDGE IS MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH
OF CHRIS. THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

AIR FORCE RECON ARE SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 1800 UTC FIX ON CHRIS. WE
EXPECT THE AIRCRAFT DATA TO PROVIDE US WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LOCATION...STRENGTH...AND STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.3N 60.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 17.9N 61.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.8N 64.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.7N 66.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.4N 68.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.7N 72.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 75.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 24.0N 78.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


065
WTNT33 KNHC 011429
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS APPROACHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.3 N...60.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


26 posted on 08/01/2006 8:08:20 AM PDT by libtoken
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To: Clive
I watch them every day during hurricane season. Keep an eye on that huge mass about to exit Africa. That might be Debbie in her infancy.


27 posted on 08/01/2006 8:45:02 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: libtoken
Looking at the water vapour picture it seems to be splitting.

We will have to watch for the fly-through.

28 posted on 08/01/2006 8:46:01 AM PDT by Clive
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To: Dog Gone
Agreed.

That was my feeling as well.

29 posted on 08/01/2006 8:50:59 AM PDT by Clive
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To: SueRae
I'll bet gas prices jump a nickel just on the news that a storm has been named.

Uh, oh, be careful. You might arouse the wrath of the FR ubercapitalists who will claim such an outcome is simply "supply and demand". Yeah, sure...

(/s)

30 posted on 08/01/2006 8:53:05 AM PDT by Gekko The Great (It's all about bucks, kid.)
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To: Gekko The Great
Hell, in Toronto a nickel jump is small change.

We regularly get variations of 5 cents or more per litre during a 24 hour period.

Go past a petrol station at 9AM and the price is $1.099/litre. Go past the same station at midnight and it is $1.045/litre and by next morning it is back up to $1.099.

Weekends are now routinely over $1.10/litre

A US gallon is 3.785 litres so a 5 cent jump equates to a jump of 18,925 cents per US gallon and a price of $1.10 per litre is the equivalent of $4.16 per US gallon.

And we are a net petroleum exporting nation.

31 posted on 08/01/2006 9:07:35 AM PDT by Clive
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To: Clive

According to the last year's season archive (at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2005atlan.shtml) we were already at nine storm/hurricanes in the Atlantic at about this time. They were:
Tropical Storm Arlene
Tropical Storm Bret
Hurricane Cindy
Hurricane Dennis
Hurricane Emily
Tropical Storm Franklin
Tropical Storm Gert
Tropical Storm Harvey
Hurricane Irene

This year we have so far only had three tropical storms: Alberto, Beryl and now Clyde.

Now the NOHC predicted in May (http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/releases2006/may06/noaa06-056.html) that we would have a very active hurricane season and many in the press were reporting this as "doom and gloom".

So far (knock on wood), this season has been rather mild in the Atlantic. I am hoping that it stays this way but I guess the question is if it does "what happened"?


32 posted on 08/01/2006 9:41:43 AM PDT by trashcanbred (Anti-social and anti-socialist)
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To: trashcanbred

Great post, I thought we were way behind compared to last year. Thanks for verifying that.


33 posted on 08/01/2006 9:43:51 AM PDT by No Blue States
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To: Clive
One good thing about the track is that the islands will not permit much intensification. Open seas breeds more powerful storms, and this storm looks like it is going to hop from one island to another.

Another good thing right now is that Natural Gas production is doing quite well.

In fact, because of heat and high oil prices, there was good demand for Natural Gas, which is cheaper than oil right now and is cleaner burning.

Finally, there is an increase from about 306,000 producing natural gas wells in 1999 to about 402,000 producing natural gas wells in the United States.

Any shut in of natural gas is not the same impact as last year - there is considerably more natural gas in underground storage.

If anything, oil prices have propped up natural gas prices this summer.

I just hope TS Chris heads for Cuba or gets chewed by a large land mass before going elsewhere so that it is not a very powerful storm. The West Indies can take a lot of a hurricane if the TS keeps hitting the Carribean Islands on its path westward... My two cents worth...

34 posted on 08/01/2006 11:15:36 AM PDT by topher (Let us return to old-fashioned morality - morality that has stood the test of time...)
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To: All
Check this loop.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

It looks like Chris is heading straight north along longitude 65W north of the Lesser Antilles.

It also looks like it is losing whatever cohesion it had when this thread was started.

35 posted on 08/01/2006 1:33:53 PM PDT by Clive
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To: FreedomPoster

No, Al Gore is responsible for nothing, because he never did anything meaningful in his life. Guess again; here's a hint; his vice president ran the most evil corporation in the history of mankind, and he failed to illegally implement the Kyoto accords.


36 posted on 08/01/2006 1:44:35 PM PDT by steve8714 (Michael Fox would suck your baby dry to cure Parkinson's)
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To: steve8714

Ooooo-kay

Last I looked, he *was* the Vice-President, he didn't have one.

And I think your sarcasm meter needs major recalibration. At minimum.


37 posted on 08/01/2006 3:37:42 PM PDT by FreedomPoster (Guns themselves are fairly robust; their chief enemies are rust and politicians) (NRA)
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To: All
Here is advisory Number 6 as of 2300 AST 2006-08-01:

WTNT33 KNHC 020249
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CENTER OF CHRIS PASSING JUST NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N...61.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

38 posted on 08/01/2006 9:32:38 PM PDT by Clive
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To: Dog Gone
Please look at the water vapour picture in my Reply 5.

It looks like it is gaining cohesion and I think that I am seeing the beginning of the formation of an eye.

How say you?

39 posted on 08/01/2006 9:37:54 PM PDT by Clive
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To: Clive
Here is advisory 7 as of 0500 AST 2006-08-02:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 020922
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006

CORRECTED STORM MOTION SECTION

...CHRIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...NORTHEAST OF ST. MARTIN.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM ...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Note that Chris is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tomorrow morning.

40 posted on 08/02/2006 3:46:26 AM PDT by Clive
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To: FreedomPoster

Perhaps it is your context meter that needs recaalibration..and I stand by my "meaningful" statement.


41 posted on 08/02/2006 6:00:39 AM PDT by steve8714 (Michael Fox would suck your baby dry to cure Parkinson's)
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To: Elle Bee

Is the cinder block/steel roof construction I saw in Daytona last time in a good deal for withstanding a hurricane?


42 posted on 08/02/2006 6:02:31 AM PDT by steve8714 (Michael Fox would suck your baby dry to cure Parkinson's)
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To: Clive
We have the same effect here. I'll see a price posted in the morning at a station on the way in to work and that same afternoon the price will have jumped by another 10 cents a gallon. So in an 8-hour period there was such a huge change in "supply and demand"? Don't make me laugh.

Bunch of profiteering greedheads is all they are. Supply and demand my a$$, they're just gouging, the lousy rats.

43 posted on 08/02/2006 6:27:22 AM PDT by Gekko The Great (Greed is not good. Greed kills.)
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To: steve8714
Mortar and Brick and a steel rivetted roof (I have the roof riveted every 6") and roll down steel shutters are the way to go..... the shutters can be deployed by a couple of taps on the blackberry

I would recomend kevelar screen for open patio/ balcony areas and a propane generator hard wired in with at least 400 gallons

Crank up the TEVO and the DVD and ride out the storm

.

44 posted on 08/02/2006 7:34:12 AM PDT by Elle Bee
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To: Clive

The circulation is certainly tightening. It might be a hurricane already.


45 posted on 08/02/2006 8:20:40 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: All
Here is advisory 8 as of 1100 AST:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...190 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.2 N...63.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH Tropical Cyclo

46 posted on 08/02/2006 8:43:07 AM PDT by Clive
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To: Dog Gone
Looks like it might track too far north for the Greater Antilles to take much of the steam out of it.
47 posted on 08/02/2006 8:45:57 AM PDT by Clive
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To: jsh3180

I also am still waiting to repair my roof from last year....up here in Palm Beach County.


48 posted on 08/02/2006 8:52:14 AM PDT by Fawn (BUILD A LONG TALL WALL)
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To: FlJoePa

Oh great ... heading right for the Gulf!


49 posted on 08/02/2006 8:53:30 AM PDT by zeaal (SPREAD TRUTH!)
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To: zeaal; All

If it makes it into the Gulf, where do you think it will go from there?

Texas? New Orleans? Florida? Mexico?


50 posted on 08/02/2006 9:10:25 AM PDT by nralife
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