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Charlie Cook: Debacle Coming for GOP
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2006/8/1/202008.shtml?s=ic ^

Posted on 08/01/2006 9:36:57 PM PDT by Deek1969

The 2006 midterm elections will be a disaster for the Republican Party -- unless a "cataclysmic event" saves the day.

That's the dire warning from political analyst Charlie Cook, who predicts in his "Off to the Races" column that the GOP's expected misfortune will result from a perfect storm of three factors:

(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Philosophy; Political Humor/Cartoons; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006; charliecook; cook; election; election2006; electioncongress; electionushouse; electionussenate; midterms; predictions; wetdreams
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1 posted on 08/01/2006 9:36:59 PM PDT by Deek1969
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To: Deek1969

Gas Prices.


2 posted on 08/01/2006 9:38:33 PM PDT by zarf
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To: Deek1969

The GOP is doomed!!! Just like they predicted in '04, '02 and '00.


3 posted on 08/01/2006 9:38:40 PM PDT by inkling
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To: inkling

He, he, he.

I love it when these assertions of GOP doom go flying around.

Doomed I tell ya!


4 posted on 08/01/2006 9:40:38 PM PDT by austinaero
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To: Deek1969

LOL< Charlie is living in a dream world. Instead of following Cindy Sheehan around the Country, he should visit the Heartland and ask the everyday "Joe" if he's for cutting and running


5 posted on 08/01/2006 9:41:21 PM PDT by MJY1288 (THE DEMOCRATS OFFER NOTHING FOR THE FUTURE AND THEY LIE ABOUT THE PAST)
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To: Deek1969

"only 27 percent of respondents said the country was headed in the right direction, while 63 percent said it was off on the wrong track.

I love this statement that comes from the question. " Are you happy with the direction the country is heading? "

Hell no. Abortion, gay marriage, socialism, terrorist apologists running rampant, taxation, all of those things are absolutely horrible to think about, and yet they are all gaining in our country. PLEASE STOP the advance of liberalism!!!!!


6 posted on 08/01/2006 9:43:29 PM PDT by ritewingwarrior
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To: Deek1969

Same stupid BS I've heard year after year. If they say it every 2 years, they are bound to be right once in awhile.

2006 ain't it.


7 posted on 08/01/2006 9:44:29 PM PDT by pissant
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To: MJY1288

....Cook has been around a long time and does a decent job....I think we ignore him at our own peril....


8 posted on 08/01/2006 9:45:37 PM PDT by NorCalRepub
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To: ritewingwarrior
BINGO!
9 posted on 08/01/2006 9:47:46 PM PDT by MJY1288 (THE DEMOCRATS OFFER NOTHING FOR THE FUTURE AND THEY LIE ABOUT THE PAST)
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To: Deek1969

Not sure that I agree but Charlie Cook is no political hack.


10 posted on 08/01/2006 9:48:07 PM PDT by ncountylee (Dead terrorists smell like victory)
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To: centurion316

ping


11 posted on 08/01/2006 9:50:13 PM PDT by Andrewksu
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To: NorCalRepub

I refuse to follow the advice of a defeatists, and this article is Authored by a defeatist


12 posted on 08/01/2006 9:50:59 PM PDT by MJY1288 (THE DEMOCRATS OFFER NOTHING FOR THE FUTURE AND THEY LIE ABOUT THE PAST)
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To: Deek1969
The 2006 midterm elections will be a disaster for the Republican Party

They will be handing out candy in Gaza City.

13 posted on 08/01/2006 9:53:22 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (999-TNS)
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To: inkling
The GOP is doomed!!! Just like they predicted in '04, '02 and '00.

There's a difference. Back then the polls predicted the doom but the opinions of the people we worked with, chatted with and talked with in our daily lives did not correspond with the results of those polls.

From personal experience, this time they DO correspond.

14 posted on 08/01/2006 9:54:45 PM PDT by MaineVoter2002 (http://jednet207.tripod.com/PoliticalLinks.html)
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To: zarf
"Gas Prices."

That it literally the tipping point issue. It affects everyone, and pisses them off to no end. Even if the blame is misplaced, the party in power will pay the price at the ballot box because most everyone is uninformed and mad as hell over this. An example would be maybe 1 in 10 people even know what ANWAR is, and just maybe 2 in 10 know who OPEC is and what they does to us. What people DO know is that gas is nearly $3 per gallon and from their point of view the politicians in DC are 'letting it happen' to them....

15 posted on 08/01/2006 9:55:16 PM PDT by KoRn
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To: Deek1969

What's Michael Barone saying?

The latest GOP fundraising letter speaks of the "razor-thin margins" in 2004 and asks for money to stop the libs from winning.


16 posted on 08/01/2006 9:56:09 PM PDT by Nextrush (Chris Matthews Band: "I get high...... I get high.....I get high.....McCain.")
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To: MJY1288
...if you say so...but the Cook Report is an independent, non partisan report.....I've heard him whack the Dems just as hard....it is not defeatist....it is research and analysis.....hopefully non bias..but I know some on FR think if anything is negative, then it is bias....I don't subscribe to that narrow minded view of the world..... besides....when Ann Coulter said the same thing...everyone here made all kinds of excuses to love her for it.....that in my book is hypocrisy....nothing less
17 posted on 08/01/2006 9:57:31 PM PDT by NorCalRepub
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To: austinaero

We're Doomed.
18 posted on 08/01/2006 9:58:03 PM PDT by MrEdd (A lawsuit by the obese against illegal labor. It fights illegality with irresponsibility)
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To: KoRn

Gas Prices and the War On Terror. Ofcourse the libs (35-40%) dont think we're fighting it hard enough and more and more conservatives think we're not fighting hard enough. Unforunately the media does not distinguish the two views and adds the whole group into one claiming that 80% or so of Americans do not support 'Bush's war in Iraq'.


19 posted on 08/01/2006 9:59:30 PM PDT by MaineVoter2002 (http://jednet207.tripod.com/PoliticalLinks.html)
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To: Deek1969

If the Dems win either house of Congress, they'll be forced to act responsibly. Their collective heads will explode.


20 posted on 08/01/2006 10:00:23 PM PDT by My2Cents (A pirate's life for me.)
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To: KoRn

Correction:

Ofcourse the libs (35-40%) dont think we should be fighting the WOT at all and more and more conservatives think we're not fighting hard enough.


21 posted on 08/01/2006 10:00:38 PM PDT by MaineVoter2002 (http://jednet207.tripod.com/PoliticalLinks.html)
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To: Deek1969

Out of curiosity, what are United States prices compared to the rest of the world?


22 posted on 08/01/2006 10:01:09 PM PDT by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: KoRn
There is no percieved sense of urgency about solving the problem. Instead we get "Actually, gas is still affordable. You're blowing it out of proportion. Move under the overpass a mile from your job if you don't want to drive." At least that's what I've been getting. It's made me ready to give up on oil, and I plan to as soon as I have the means to replace my own personal infrastructure.

Government needs to explain what's going on. And they also need to make it seem like their top priority is removing all of the federal legislative barriers to getting the problem solved. Nuclear electricity needs to be pushed top priority, refineries need to be allowed, boutique blends need to be consolidated nationwide or banned outright, and politicians need to be on tv weekly explaining how desperately they are trying to remove the barriers that are keeping the high prices in place. Until then, the average joe who doesn't think much is going to blame whoever is holding office.
23 posted on 08/01/2006 10:01:56 PM PDT by mysterio
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To: NorCalRepub

OK, Thanks for your view, good night!


24 posted on 08/01/2006 10:02:33 PM PDT by MJY1288 (THE DEMOCRATS OFFER NOTHING FOR THE FUTURE AND THEY LIE ABOUT THE PAST)
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To: Nextrush

Just caught the very end of M Barone on Sean's show today but missed his thoughts on the house races...anybody hear his opinions? He layed out a pretty good cause for the R holding the Senate...can't see the D's sweeping every close seat...I can't either.


25 posted on 08/01/2006 10:04:19 PM PDT by TatieBug
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To: ritewingwarrior
Exactly! I'll bet the vast majority of that 63 percent think we're heading too far to the left yet the media will not tell us that.

They do the same with the Iraq War.

26 posted on 08/01/2006 10:05:17 PM PDT by MaineVoter2002 (http://jednet207.tripod.com/PoliticalLinks.html)
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To: TatieBug

I don't think the dems are going to take anywhere near the amount of seats that the MSM is drooling over that they might win. But the gas issue alone could theoretically tip the Presidency in '08. I'm just saying.


27 posted on 08/01/2006 10:07:14 PM PDT by mysterio
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To: KoRn

I agree with you. It would be different if it looked as if the GOP was doing somthing about it.. but its not.. the best thing we can do is fire back "what will raising taxes do about it? not a thing."

Then we can pray the speculators will stop raping this country and base it on the real supply and demand situation.


28 posted on 08/01/2006 10:07:59 PM PDT by BoBToMatoE
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To: mysterio

I don't see any change in driving habits here in Oklahoma as most people buying new cars stick with the larger vehicles, SUV's, trucks, large cars. Living in an oil/gas producing state we probably see things differently.

This additional income is allowing more wells to be drilled and some marginal wells that no one wanted to invest in are now back on line and doing great. Hope to see refineries modernized and adding a few would be nice.

If we have good candidates, they will get elected.


29 posted on 08/01/2006 10:08:05 PM PDT by PhiKapMom (Elect George Allen for President 2008!)
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To: mysterio
I'm NOT all that distressed regarding gas prices personally. I drive a gas guzzling sports car, but only live 2 miles from work. Gas could go to $10 per gallon for all I care, I'll just ride a bike to work. lol

Regarding my post I was pretty much referring to how I hear others speak of it all.
30 posted on 08/01/2006 10:08:58 PM PDT by KoRn
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To: mysterio
Actually, gas is still affordable. You're blowing it out of proportion

If China becomes a major exporter of oil to the US. Is that a good thing?

31 posted on 08/01/2006 10:09:02 PM PDT by MaineVoter2002 (http://jednet207.tripod.com/PoliticalLinks.html)
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To: KoRn

Help support my "Ride Your Bike to the Polls on Election Wednesday" endeavor. Spread the word of this fine ecoconsciousness raising project among the Liberals.


32 posted on 08/01/2006 10:13:15 PM PDT by NaughtiusMaximus (WARNING: Alcohol may cause you to think you are whispering when you are definitely not.)
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To: MaineVoter2002
You have to stop minimizing the issue. It's vastly important to everyone I know. Maybe it's the area I live in.

If you're asking for my personal strategy, I would like to see an alternative become very competitive, and sustained high prices are the only way that's going to happen. But this thread is about major issues that might affect the party in power in an election year. And I'm presenting a PR strategy to solve the problem using the oil infrastructure that we currently have.
33 posted on 08/01/2006 10:16:14 PM PDT by mysterio
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To: zarf

And as november approaches people start worrying how they will be able to afford the oil to keep the homes warm


34 posted on 08/01/2006 10:17:16 PM PDT by MaineVoter2002 (http://jednet207.tripod.com/PoliticalLinks.html)
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To: Deek1969

He expects the dims to gain control of the House, and the pubbies to hold the Senate. He attributes these gains to a "hostile political climate" for pubbies, higher voter turnout for dims and a less than average spending advantage for pubbies.

Makes me think....I wonder how all the gay marriage issues are going to turn around and suddenly help the dims with regard to turnout. I also don't understand why the political climate ought to be considered "hostile" toward pubbies, but I can agree with the spending point insofar as many on the right have themselves engaged in attacks on our own.


35 posted on 08/01/2006 10:18:16 PM PDT by Kryptonite (Keep Democrats Out of Power!)
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To: PhiKapMom
I have seen less driving in my area. But people are still driving to work. I live in a semi-rural area that requires commutes to an urban area where housing costs are high. the driving I see is commuters mostly. Recreational driving has dropped noticeably here.
36 posted on 08/01/2006 10:18:52 PM PDT by mysterio
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To: MaineVoter2002

Ok, maybe you misinterpreted my initial post. I was saying that most people have been giving me the "gas is affordable argument." I don't agree. Sorry if I misinterpreted your initial response to my first post as well.


37 posted on 08/01/2006 10:20:34 PM PDT by mysterio
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Comment #38 Removed by Moderator

To: Deek1969

At this point in time the GOP is looking bad. Immigration and gas prices have people pretty pissed off.


39 posted on 08/01/2006 10:27:19 PM PDT by John Lenin
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To: A CA Guy

The US is still the cheapest out of the non-subsidized nations if you look at absolute prices, Europe is still paying 6-8 US Dollars a gallon.

But if you look at it as a % of price increase we've been hit the hardest. Europe has the advantage of the strong currency, minimal consumer gas useage and the flexibility that high gas taxes provides.


40 posted on 08/01/2006 10:29:16 PM PDT by Hong Kong Expat
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To: mysterio

I agree. The "gas is affordable argument." is political suicide. Even Rush Limbaugh uses the "gas is affordable argument" but he also aknowledges that it will become a major issue in november and not one that's on the side of the republicans this time around. People dont want to hear that "gas is affordable argument." Look what happened to Jimmah Carter. The "gas is affordable argument." is not much difference than the wearing of a sweater.


41 posted on 08/01/2006 10:30:25 PM PDT by MaineVoter2002 (http://jednet207.tripod.com/PoliticalLinks.html)
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To: NorCalRepub
"but the Cook Report is an independent, non partisan report"


What did he say before the 2002 and 2004 elections then?
Plus we have plenty of "independent", "non-partisan" outfits out there, all of them coming to different conclusions in how they predict various elections.
Being "independent" doesn't make you right.



"..but I know some on FR think if anything is negative, then it is bias"

I still remember the early "exit polls" in 2004. They had Hanoi John winning soldidly.
And that was AFTER the real polls had been cast.
On top of all that, we had that notorious prediction by Zongby, after the exit polls had come out on election day, confidently predicting a Kerry win. He couldn't get it right even then.
It's hardly any surprise Freepers don't think much of these predictions.


"when Ann Coulter said the same thing"


I listened to Ann talk about the mid-terms on Fox. What she said was she doesn't do predictions (unlike this guy), but going by what normally happens to the ruling party in mid-term elections Republicans should lose.
But then we "should have lost" in 2002 too, going by that same argument.
We won instead.
42 posted on 08/01/2006 10:31:50 PM PDT by Jameison
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To: Jameison

.....I don't dispute that...and yes, he could be wrong..but he has been right in the past...and I would not dismiss him as a political hack like some here just cause he is saying something they don't like....happens alot here....sorry, but it does....again....I never said he was right if YOU read my post...I said I would not ignore him at our peril..


43 posted on 08/01/2006 10:35:12 PM PDT by NorCalRepub
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To: NaughtiusMaximus

I dont believe in the polls by the media. I DO believe my own polls as I talk with others in my daily life. There is a major change in sentiment since the 2002 and 2004 elections and not to the benefit of the republicans.


44 posted on 08/01/2006 10:35:20 PM PDT by MaineVoter2002 (http://jednet207.tripod.com/PoliticalLinks.html)
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To: KoRn

An example would be maybe 1 in 10 people even know what ANWAR is, and just maybe 2 in 10 know who OPEC is and what they does to us.



I totally agree with you. The average Joe does not know these things. It does not help that congress or senate talked about giving 100 dollars to every tax paying American and then never heard a peep again. A 100 dollars to average Joe is money to buy what ever he wants regardless of the amount.


45 posted on 08/01/2006 10:37:12 PM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: NaughtiusMaximus
"Help support my "Ride Your Bike to the Polls on Election Wednesday" endeavor."

That would work for me. I live in a small town. I could ride a bike most anywhere I would want to go. Of course I would have to buy one first, and it would suck during bad weather or if I had to haul anything. =)

46 posted on 08/01/2006 10:39:03 PM PDT by KoRn
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To: Jameison
True. The media polls had the republicans losing in 2002 and 2004. But we knew those polls were bogus because they did not reflect the opinions we heard by the average joe on the streets in our daily life back then.

This time I see a difference. The same average joes who were supporting the GOP back then are angry now. They DO reflect the polls I see.

If everybody you talk to is happy then I guess the status quo is safe. But I dont see it that way. Not this time. Not here in FR, not in other forums and NOT with the people I talk with daily.

I'm experiencing a difference this time.

47 posted on 08/01/2006 10:41:31 PM PDT by MaineVoter2002 (http://jednet207.tripod.com/PoliticalLinks.html)
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To: MaineVoter2002

Every time is different.

And if we put the Democrats back in charge of Congress, we'll get to see just how different different can be.

God help us all if we're THAT stupid.


48 posted on 08/01/2006 10:47:13 PM PDT by John Valentine
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To: Hong Kong Expat
Thanks, and what about Europe makes it's currency so strong?

I think it's the newest thing on the block, but that eventually the Euro will drop like junk bonds.
49 posted on 08/01/2006 10:47:20 PM PDT by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: Deek1969
If we lose the House, we will lose any chance of controlling our borders and we will have open immigration disguised as amnesty and we will, as a result, lose our constitutional republic as we know it.

If we lose the Senate, we lose any chance of restoring the court system to an acquaintanceship with the Constitution and every facet of our lives will be distorted.


50 posted on 08/01/2006 10:47:50 PM PDT by nathanbedford ("I like to legislate. I feel I've done a lot of good." Sen. Robert Byrd)
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