Iran has *zero* nuclear bombs.
Posted on 08/02/2006 9:23:41 PM PDT by FairOpinion
Iran has *zero* nuclear bombs.
Of course Saad Bin Laden is "complaining" (a ridiculous complaint, by the way, and one that would under normal circumstances cause him to lose face in the Islamic World) publicly about being treated too well by Iran. The whole strategy of Al Qaeda is to get Iran condemned by the West for supporting Al Qaeda...thus ushering in a shooting war that forces Iran to side with Al Qaeda against the West.
Saad is the leader of Alqaida and cannot be deployed but does the deploying.
Change gear, old chap, you are stuck on Zarghawi's letter and are taking it as gospel. Quite to the contrary - as you inferred he got killed for it - not because it was leaked but because it was HIS not Al Qaeda's policy statement. THEY AND IRAN did NOT like it.
Yet you take it hook, line and sinker and then get a skewed view of Al Qaeda in Iran. AND YES, Al Qaeda senior people and teh sons have been in Iran for over five years! And yes, they have a co-operation agreement. The 40-page "contract" and what to do, who to contact, what to say etc., if caught inside Iran - was issued to Al Qaeda years ago and a copy was first captured very early on in Baghdad in Arabic and then later an incomplete copy in Dari Farsi (Afghan Farsi) was captured in Afghanistan.
The 40-page instruction manual issued to Al Qaeda fighters on how to interact with Iranian authorities and be immune and receive help and support far outweighs the Zarghawi letter which was HIS strategy plan not Al Qaeda's. Just as much of the senseless slaughter was his own initiative and a major reason for him getting killed.
You turn a blind eye to facts that do not fit your premise or have forgotten them or never knew about them. Like the Al Qadea contract with Iran and the operational instruction manual they issued.
Do please change gear out of the little box in which you seem to find yourself stuck.
regards,
Why do Al Qaeda fighters need 40 pages of instructions on how to act in order to be "immune" inside Iran if Iran and Al Qaeda have been 100% allied for 100% of the time?
Hi, Phil. How have you been?
There's a difference between "developing" a bomb and plain old purchasing one. Iran's working on making a bomb - is it too much of a stretch to think they've acquired bombs from Pakistan, North Korea, or the former USSR? I doubt alQaeda has the bomb - but Iran? I'd need proof to believe they don't have them...
Are you playing dumb to bait me?
Al Qaeda do not wear uniforms nor carry Al Qaeda passports or ID.
There are thousands and thousands of Al Qaeda operatives all over the world and they need to know how to do things etc. when they are in different parts of the world. They are not a country! They are not part of Iran's population. As visitors, even welcome ones, they need to know how to deal with the autorities in each nvironment.
There are also thousands and thousands of police and security authorities inside Iran, who might need reminding, specially new ones.
Please, think a little before you ask silly questions. I am not going to go on with this. Forgive me if I do not respond.
Good points. And yes. Why would Iran want to have any armed conflict with us unless they where certain their someday crude atomic weapon would actually work, in order to use it as leverage.
Your story doesn't hold up.
Most likely they don't. They would hope their bluster would keep the Euros and Americans out of it so they can deal with their more local goals as they wish. But, they may be miscalculating just like Saddam did with Kuwait. I say maybe because things just aren't clear, like everybody is hoping this problem will just go away.
Yes, it is far too much of a stretch.
Nuclear explosions leave a precise, unique radiation signature. We know which enrichment facility each Bomb tested by Russia was made. They know where we made fissionables for each of our tests.
It's like a fingerprint.
Selling a nuclear weapon would be the same as selling your own fingerprints to a known thief...you'd get the blame wherever "your" prints showed up.
In essence, you'd lose your own sovereignty; the buyer of your fingerprints could send you to jail at will by leaving your prints in obvious locations at crime scenes.
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Russia had admitted some suitcase nukes are missing. Say something like 30 to 40 -- and missing for a long time -- long before this current conflict with Iran.
Then assume a nuke is detonated in the ME and we can trace it back to the old USSR. What could be done? Would we go to war with Russia because the bomb had Russian "fingerprints"? I don't think so. Now, if it had French fingerprints it would be different...
Yes, we launch full scale global thermo-nuclear war at that point.
The official U.S. policy is called Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), and it has kept the peace for the past half century precisely because no established nuclear power is going to let a rogue group/country do the above without massive retaliation to the country of original construction.
This is *why* random nukes haven't fallen into Hezbollah's hands, or been given to Hamas, sailed on a ship into NYC harbor, flown into LAX, etc.
I'm having mixed feelings about this...
The good thing is it would stop the average Russian from selling a nuke - "it's not just the money" - it would be every Russian's life.
On the other hand, if a nuke had been sold, and went off, having every Russian and every American die because of it seems a high price. Have you heard the stories about Russians "missing" up to 60 suitcase nukes? Do you believe the stories?
Suitcase nukes can go perhaps 81 days before they require clean-room lab maintenance from highly-trained workers who have access to hyper-modern enrichment and *other* equipment.
Thus, if you can maintain a suitcase nuke, then you already have on hand the technical know-how to manufacture nuclear weapons from scratch...which means that you have no legitimate reason to buy or steal one.
So what do I think about grand tales of "lost" or stolen Soviet suitcase nukes?
...that it's the stuff of campground initiation fodder wherein the old guys scare the wits out of the young kids still gullible-enough to swallow the tall tales.
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