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New Poll Shows Lieberman Losing Ground
ap/nyt ^ | 8/3/06

Posted on 08/03/2006 11:49:59 AM PDT by mathprof

Millionaire businessman Ned Lamont opened a double-digit lead over veteran Sen. Joe Lieberman less than a week before Connecticut's Democratic primary, raising the possibility that the three-term senator may have to run as an independent in November, a new poll released Thursday shows.

Lamont, a political novice, had support from 54 percent of likely Democratic voters in the Quinnipiac University poll, while Lieberman had support from 41 percent of voters. The sampling error margin was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A similar survey July 20 showed Lamont with a slight advantage for the first time in the campaign.

''Senator Lieberman's campaign bus seems to be stuck in reverse,'' poll director Douglas Schwartz said. ''Despite visits from former President Bill Clinton and other big-name Democrats, Lieberman has not been able to stem the tide to Lamont.'[snip]

The poll, however, indicated that Lamont's support is in large part a backlash: 65 percent of Lamont supporters said their vote is mainly against Lieberman. Schwartz said he had never seen a race where an incumbent has stirred up such negativity within his own party.

The Lieberman campaign said the poll showed much work must be done by to win Tuesday's primary.[snip]

The telephone survey of 890 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted from July 25 to 31.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Connecticut
KEYWORDS: 2006polls; election2006; electioncongress; elections; lieberman; limousineliberal; moonbats
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This could be fun if Lieberman has to run as an independent and wins the general election.
1 posted on 08/03/2006 11:50:00 AM PDT by mathprof
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To: mathprof

LaMont's got the win here I think, he's got the momentum with the media coverage I see/hear regarding this race.


2 posted on 08/03/2006 11:51:11 AM PDT by oceanview
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To: mathprof

Will the last Classical Liberal please close the door when they leave the Senate.


3 posted on 08/03/2006 11:51:58 AM PDT by Mike Darancette (I'll have the duck with mango salsa.)
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To: mathprof

And if he wins as an "Independent" then do the Dems have one less seat in the Senate?


4 posted on 08/03/2006 11:54:24 AM PDT by JBR34
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To: mathprof

Smokin Joe has said if he runs and wins as an independent, he would caucus with the Dems in the Senate.

Polls have suggested that even if Smokin Joe loses the Dem primary, he is favored to win in the general election. I don't have any confidence in that - the trend has been Lamong gaining, Joe losing. 3 months later, there's no reason not to think that Lamont's momentum would continue.

Wait and see. Looks bad for Smokin Joe.


5 posted on 08/03/2006 11:55:02 AM PDT by HitmanLV ("If at first you don't succeed, keep on sucking until you do succeed." - Jerry 'Curly' Howard)
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To: mathprof
This could be fun if Lieberman has to run as an independent and wins the general election.

Hillary would like nothing better. It will show the moonbats they can win in the primary but lose in the general election.

If Lieberman were to lose in the general election, Hillary! has got big problems for 2008. Because she will be unable to convince the moonbats that the nominee in 2008 has to be a centrist. And she'll either lose the nomination or have to run so far left in the 2008 primaries that she will have a hell of a time getting back to the middle by November.

6 posted on 08/03/2006 11:55:45 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: oceanview

Based on the evidence, I agree, I think LaMont wins. If the RNC were smart they would figure out how to use LaMont as a real boogieman. I mean crickey, LaMont and those backing him are hyper-radical crackpots. Make this guy the face of the new Democratic Party!


7 posted on 08/03/2006 11:56:10 AM PDT by Obadiah (Liberals: Blazingly Stupid!)
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To: HitmanLV
3 months later, there's no reason not to think that Lamont's momentum would continue.

The moderate Dems are less likely to vote in the primary. In addition, there is no chance the pubbie can win in November - so a lot of pubbie voters will be tempted to vote for Lieberman in a three-way race.

8 posted on 08/03/2006 11:56:54 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: JBR34

no, he would still vote with the Dems.


9 posted on 08/03/2006 11:58:11 AM PDT by oceanview
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To: HitmanLV

they need to get some new republican into this race.


10 posted on 08/03/2006 11:58:36 AM PDT by oceanview
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To: dirtboy

if I were a Conn republican, I would vote for LaMont in the general. he will be much easier to take out in 2012 with a legitimate republican candidate.


11 posted on 08/03/2006 12:00:21 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: dirtboy

This is Connecticut after all. I would expect the Lamont momentum to continute. He has La-memtum, and Joe has Joementum.


12 posted on 08/03/2006 12:01:02 PM PDT by HitmanLV ("If at first you don't succeed, keep on sucking until you do succeed." - Jerry 'Curly' Howard)
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To: dirtboy
If Lieberman were to lose in the general election, Hillary! has got big problems for 2008. Because she will be unable to convince the moonbats that the nominee in 2008 has to be a centrist.

hillary sees the writing the writing on the wall, given her hysterical DUmmie like attack against Rumsfeld this morning.

13 posted on 08/03/2006 12:01:37 PM PDT by Dane ("Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" Ronald Reagan, 1987)
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To: JBR34

Even tho Lieberman would caucus with the Dems, in terms of majority and/or majority/minority ratios for Committees, it'd still be one less (official) Dem, wouldn't it ? I wonder how that would work in a worst case scenario if the GOP lost several seats in November.

With the retirement of Jumpin Jim Jeffords, under the "Lieberman wins as an independent" scenario, would he then be the only Independent?


14 posted on 08/03/2006 12:04:43 PM PDT by EDINVA
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To: mathprof

The real losers will be the citizens of Connecticut, I say let them hang themselves. Joe is a good man, for a democrat, at least on the war on terror issue, but on most other issues he is a liberal democrat. I for one could give a r@t's @ss if he gets re-elected or not. So what if Connecticut elects an even more liberal Senator. It really does not change the make-up of the Senate. What it does is lessen any power Connecticut may have in the Senate.


15 posted on 08/03/2006 12:12:50 PM PDT by Robert DeLong
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To: mathprof

Looks like Clinton doesn't have the pull he used to have. Maybe he's even dragging him down.


16 posted on 08/03/2006 12:13:24 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: JBR34

Only on a few issues, as he will vote with them on most issues.


17 posted on 08/03/2006 12:14:02 PM PDT by Robert DeLong
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To: mathprof
Despite what the polls may tell you, I don't think Lieberman would win as an independent.

One of the interesting angles to this story that hasn't gotten a lot of attention is that Lieberman is paying the price for his "campaign laziness" over the last 12 years. He didn't have a serious primary opponent in 1994 and ran his entire campaign in 2000 on the free publicity he was getting as the vice presidential candidate, so he came into 2006 with almost no party organization to support him against a primary challenger.

Stick a fork in this mediocre hack . . . he's done.

18 posted on 08/03/2006 12:17:12 PM PDT by Alberta's Child (Can money pay for all the days I lived awake but half asleep?)
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To: Dane; dirtboy

Did ya happen to see this? "Reid May Ask Sen Clinton to Preempt Presidential Ambitions Succeed Him as Senate Maj/Min Leader"

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1677196/posts


19 posted on 08/03/2006 12:17:47 PM PDT by dynachrome ("Where am I? Where am I going? Why am I in a handbasket?")
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To: mathprof

Unlike others, I don't rejoice in the ongoing rejection of sanity in the Democratic Party. I would much rather have to deal with the likes of Harry Truman and JFK than those of Howard Dean and "Kos".


20 posted on 08/03/2006 12:18:23 PM PDT by Unam Sanctam
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To: HitmanLV

Joementum sounds more and more like moving backwards.


21 posted on 08/03/2006 12:19:08 PM PDT by AmishDude (The Constitution: It ain't long, it ain't complicated and it don't take a genius to figure it out.)
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To: dynachrome

I saw that. I hope Harry starts taking the bus for his sake.


22 posted on 08/03/2006 12:20:44 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: Dane

We often portray Hillary as a savvy machiavellian, but the truth is that she's an impatient amateur.


23 posted on 08/03/2006 12:20:59 PM PDT by AmishDude (The Constitution: It ain't long, it ain't complicated and it don't take a genius to figure it out.)
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To: AmishDude

I think it always did sound like moving backwards!


24 posted on 08/03/2006 12:22:43 PM PDT by HitmanLV ("If at first you don't succeed, keep on sucking until you do succeed." - Jerry 'Curly' Howard)
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To: mathprof
I'm not surprised when I read the liberals' posts in USENET POLITICAL GROUPS and see their hatred towards the jewish people. It's sad that there is so much hatred coming from the democrats and left-coast Hollywierd these days.
25 posted on 08/03/2006 12:23:42 PM PDT by MaineVoter2002 (http://jednet207.tripod.com/PoliticalLinks.html)
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To: dirtboy

I hope Harry picnics in Ft. Marcy Park. :)


26 posted on 08/03/2006 12:24:16 PM PDT by dynachrome ("Where am I? Where am I going? Why am I in a handbasket?")
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To: mathprof

The Old Joe-mentum. I hope he now realizes that if you lie down with dogs you wake up with fleas.


27 posted on 08/03/2006 12:30:25 PM PDT by Inwoodian
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To: mathprof

A little craziness here--and I know the polls say otherwise-- but I think the primary might turn out to be pretty close, possibly even with Lieberman winning the primary.


28 posted on 08/03/2006 12:31:14 PM PDT by cyberdasher (www.wikistan.com - I can't see anybody named 'Ned' winning a major election.)
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To: AmishDude
We often portray Hillary as a savvy machiavellian, but the truth is that she's an impatient amateur

I agree, her tantrum this morning against Rumsfeld was appeasement towards the moonbats who have taken over the democrat party.

Although IMO, she is personally more in tune with the moonbats.

29 posted on 08/03/2006 12:32:43 PM PDT by Dane ("Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" Ronald Reagan, 1987)
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To: Dane

I just expected her and her handlers to have a long-term plan and theme and that she would stick with the plan, but she jumps here and there.


30 posted on 08/03/2006 12:34:09 PM PDT by AmishDude (The Constitution: It ain't long, it ain't complicated and it don't take a genius to figure it out.)
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To: mathprof

I think Joe should sue Quinnipiac University for the bad polling results, ala Crazy McKinney. Might start a trend.


31 posted on 08/03/2006 12:36:47 PM PDT by Polyxene (For where God built a church, there the Devil would also build a chapel - Martin Luther)
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To: mathprof

And to think that the guy was a few hanging chads away from being our Vice President.


32 posted on 08/03/2006 12:37:04 PM PDT by jpl (Victorious warriors win first, then go to war; defeated warriors go to war first, then seek to win.)
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To: AmishDude
We often portray Hillary as a savvy machiavellian, but the truth is that she's an impatient amateur.

Right On. W/O the drive-by media she would be back a lawyer for some hack left wing grp.

33 posted on 08/03/2006 12:37:27 PM PDT by Digger
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To: HitmanLV
Smokin Joe has said if he runs and wins as an independent, he would caucus with the Dems in the Senate.

Whats the point of being an independent if you have to put your caucus in an unwelcome place?

34 posted on 08/03/2006 12:40:40 PM PDT by dingoMcgill
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To: cyberdasher

From what I've heard, Joe lost a huge chunk of "undecided" voters after the debate he had against Lamont a few weeks back. He was petty, angry, combative, and desperate -- for the first time anyone can remember. He sure wasn't the dopey, congenial, harmless old Joe Lieberman these people have known through the years.


35 posted on 08/03/2006 12:43:11 PM PDT by Alberta's Child (Can money pay for all the days I lived awake but half asleep?)
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To: Inwoodian
"The Old Joe-mentum. I hope he now realizes that if you lie down with dogs you wake up with fleas."

I lost all respect for him when he showed himself to be a bigtime sell-out when he was running as AlBore's vice president.

But then, I'm not a democRat!

36 posted on 08/03/2006 12:44:00 PM PDT by LADY J
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To: mathprof

Does the Republican candidate have any chance with the scenario being Lamont & Lieberman splitting the dem vote?

Wouldn't a Republican candidate have an advantage or is CT 99% democrat?


37 posted on 08/03/2006 12:46:11 PM PDT by Republican Red (Everyone is super stoked on Gore, even if they don't know it)
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To: Republican Red

Chris Shays could have won if he would have run. I'm not sure you can consider him a Republican though.


38 posted on 08/03/2006 1:02:18 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: mathprof

CORRECTION:

'Senator Lieberman's campaign bus seems to be stuck in reverse,' Schwartz said. 'BECAUSE of visits from former President Bill Clinton...'


39 posted on 08/03/2006 1:14:20 PM PDT by proudpapa (of three.)
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To: mathprof

The Dumbo party is about to lose its last adult.


40 posted on 08/03/2006 1:15:54 PM PDT by TexanToTheCore (This space for hire...)
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To: Republican Red

"Does the Republican candidate have any chance with the scenario being Lamont & Lieberman splitting the dem vote?"



If a decent GOP candidate was running, absolutely. But the loser who's the only Republican running in the primary is polling at around 10%, and that was before it became known that he's a high roller at the Foxwoods Casino. The state GOP is trying to convince him to drop out and get someone better to run, and I hope it is successful in its efforts.


41 posted on 08/03/2006 1:17:23 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (http://auh2orepublican.blogspot.com/)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

GOP analysts want Lieberman to lose the primary and force him to run as an independent. The strong belief is that Lieberman on an independent line will greatly help the down-ballot GOP congressional incumbents, including Nancy Johnson and others.


42 posted on 08/03/2006 1:20:48 PM PDT by mwl1
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To: mwl1

Lieberman as an independent will also force the DSCC to fund Lamont in some measure, thus further draining their resources elsewhere. Essentially, you'll have an open Democratic primary in the general election.


43 posted on 08/03/2006 1:21:51 PM PDT by mwl1
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To: oceanview

I haven't followed it at all closely. Is my impression that LaMont is the media's darling and favorite, correct? That they want Lieberman to go down for backing Bush on Iraq?


44 posted on 08/03/2006 1:23:09 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s...you weren't really there.)
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To: mathprof

Whats the Democrat/Republican breakdown in Connecticut? If its 50-30-20 (ie 20 independent) and Lieberman gets 40% of the Democrap vote, he'd need 60 % of everybody else; quite doable, I would think.


45 posted on 08/03/2006 2:07:44 PM PDT by Nonstatist
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To: mathprof

If he does run as an (I), how likely is it that he and Lamont split the dem vote and the Republican wins? I'm not that close to CT politics.


46 posted on 08/03/2006 3:19:12 PM PDT by Buck W. (If you push something hard enough, it will fall over.)
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To: mwl1; fieldmarshaldj; BlackRazor; Clintonfatigued

"GOP analysts want Lieberman to lose the primary and force him to run as an independent. The strong belief is that Lieberman on an independent line will greatly help the down-ballot GOP congressional incumbents, including Nancy Johnson and others."



That's an odd theory. If Lieberman loses and runs as an independent, turnout among liberal Democrats (who won't vote for someone with an R next to their name even if they're as liberal as Johnson, Shays or Simmons) in the general election will be huge, and the additional independent voters that Lieberman will bring to the polls may be just as likely to vote for the Democrat House candidate as for the RINO incumbent. On the other hand, if Lieberman manages to beat Lamont in the primary (which at this point appears to be unlikely), Lamont won't be on the ballot and thousands of liberal Democrats will simply stay home on Election Day, thereby costing the liberal Democrat opponents of Johnson, Shays and Simmons (and, for that matter, Governor Rell) much needed votes.

Since (i) the GOP has no chance of winning the Senate race even with Lieberman running as an independent (unless we get the loser GOP nominee to drop out and a better candidate replaces him on the ballot), (ii) Lamont would be an even more liberal Senator than Lieberman, plus is younger and would likely stay in office longer, and (iii) keeping Lamont off the general-election ballot would benefit our RINO House and gubernatorial incumbents (which are not quite as bad as their liberal Democrat opponents), I would rather have Lieberman beat Lamont in the primary.


47 posted on 08/03/2006 4:15:35 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (http://auh2orepublican.blogspot.com/)
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To: ChildOfThe60s

yup.


48 posted on 08/03/2006 4:37:52 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: nutmeg; #1CTYankee

Nutmeg, another one for your ping list.


49 posted on 08/03/2006 6:08:46 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (illegal aliens commit crimes that Americans won't commit)
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To: oceanview

Now, the $1 million question is, "Can the GOP get Alan Schlesinger to drop out of the race?"


50 posted on 08/03/2006 6:09:59 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (illegal aliens commit crimes that Americans won't commit)
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