Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Seeing Through The Fog Of War (The Soon To Be Realized Well-Kept Israeli Victory Secret Alert)
Frontpagemag.com ^ | 08/10/06 | Kenneth Timmerman

Posted on 08/10/2006 5:03:24 AM PDT by goldstategop

Jerusalem, Israel (Aug. 9, 2006) – The debate raging in Israel these days is how far and how fast to push into Lebanon, and how to define victory once the phase of intense military operations is over.

The government of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has already changed military strategy twice in four weeks of fighting. On Tuesday, they assigned an “over-seer” from the general staff to second-guess Maj. Gen. Uri Adom, the operational commander in the north. None of these are signs of a well-planned war.

The Israeli press is full of reports of disputes within the General Staff, disputes within the Cabinet, poorly-planned operations, and pulled punches. Some have suggested publicly that Israel is losing this war.

Former Mossad Chief Efraim Halevy said Tuesday that Israel will ultimately emerge as the victor. "But we have to make sure that our enemies will not be able to project the image that they are similarly successful. This is very important for Israel's deterrence image. We must engrave in the mind of the enemy that it has suffered a serious setback,” he said.

But even this measure of victory may be beyond Israel’s grasp. Israel’s enemies will claim victory no matter how stunning their defeat. If the Arab states had any understanding of military realities, they would have conceded defeat in 1948 and gone on to make their own deserts bloom. Instead, they have poured a colossal fortune down the drain – trillions and trillions of dollars in oil revenues – to pursue a doomed jihad against a Jewish state whose existence they can never accept, even today.

So let’s step back from the depressed news coverage that suggests Israel is losing this war - because Israel will never win the propaganda war: not against the Arabs, the Islamo-fascists, or the Europeans.

Here is a short list of what Israel has accomplished after one month of fighting. These are not perfect achievements. Nor are they complete. (There is no complete victory against terrorist forces, as Ariel Sharon learned after smashing the PLO in Lebanon in 1982.) But real capabilities have been destroyed and these are important victories.

*The massive arsenal supplied to Hezbollah by Iran has been almost entirely wiped out.*

While some news agencies have mis-reported that Iranian rockets continue to hit Haifa, in fact, as Israeli police spokesman Mickey Rosenfeld told me after Sunday’s deadly rocket strikes that killed 15 Israelis, “only a handful” of Iranian Fajr-3 rockets have hit Israel during the entire conflict.

What happened to those Iranian rockets? Israel took most of them out on Day One of the fighting, senior military officials say.

Through good intelligence, they managed to identify the location of the launchers before they could be used. “We made this our top priority,” a military intelligence source told me.

While Hezbollah most likely has a strategic reserve – and can still pull off surprises – this means quite simply that Iran lost in a single day of Israeli airstrikes an investment that has cost them hundreds of millions of dollars and six years to build.

The arsenal Hezbollah still retains are mostly shorter-range rockets, which Israel can take out in ground operations up to the Litani river.

*Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has been turned into a fugitive.*

Sure, Nasrallah may be hiding in the basement of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, and he will manage to give pre-taped interviews to Hezbo-TV for the conceivable future. But his public speaking days at mass open-air rallies are over. He steps out of his bomb shelter, and an Israeli missile sends him to Allah. Welcome to life underground with Osama.

*Iran overplayed its hand.*

Guided no doubt by Nasrallah’s inflated analysis of Israeli weakness, Iran gave the operational orders to Hezbollah to launch the July 12 attack on Israel during face-to-face meetings in Damascus the day before, as I have previously reported.

Iran believed that Israel would collapse under a steady barrage of rocket-fire against its northern cities, towns and villages, and sue for peace. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his hojjatieh religious mentors were convinced that Israel’s humiliation would pave the way toward their avowed goal of destroying Israel and America, by hastening the return of the Shiite Muslim messiah (the Mahdi) and ushering in the end times. Instead, it’s their own demise that is near.

*Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards Corps has been humiliated.*

Revolutionary Guards officers, assigned to Hezbollah missile units in Lebanon, have been killed on the battlefield in Lebanon and sent back like dogs in Syrian caskets to Iran.

To disguise the losses (and Iran’s direct involvement in the fighting), the dead Iranians were put in civilian caskets, and taken to Syria in convoys of refuges. This is a humiliation and a wake-up call the Revolutionary Guards have never endured.

*The Islamic Republic has failed to divert international attention from its nuclear weapons programs.*

The timing of the war was no accident: just days before the G-8 summit in St. Petersburg, Russia. Initial plans for the summit placed Iran’s nuclear weapons program at the top of the agenda.

Iran’s goal in provoking this war was to divert international attention from its nuclear weapons program at the summit; and initially, it appeared that Iran was successful. Iran was stunned when the UN Security Council passed a resolution two weeks later giving Tehran a hard deadline to accept the U.S.-backed take-it or leave-it offer to suspend all enrichment and reprocessing activities, in exchange for Western goodies. In response to that UN action, Iran has thumbed its nose at the international community, and indicated last week that it would reject the offer. But the UN deadline holds.

In other words, Iran’s efforts to game the international community have failed, and failed miserably.

Each day the fighting continues, Hezbollah grows weaker.

Each day that Israel that bombs Hezbollah command and control bunkers, and destroys Syrian and Iranian and Chinese-built rocket launchers, the future threat to the citizens of northern Israel diminishes.

Israel has made clear that it will not accept a ceasefire in Lebanon until Hezbollah is effectively disarmed and some arrangement is made to prevent Hezbollah from returning to southern Lebanon.

In the fog of war it is often difficult to recognize victory or the beginnings of victory. Israel still has a ways to go to defeat Hezbollah and prevent it from becoming a future threat. But it has reached a tipping point. From here on, the losses are going to be overwhelming one-sided, in Israel’s favor.

Most important of all, however, has been the message sent by Israel’s civilian population to the leaders of Syria and Iran.

Until this war, Iran believed it could deter any Israeli military action against it – in Lebanon, or in Iran – by the threat of massive rocket attacks, essentially using Israel’s civilian population as hostages.

By playing its hand too early, Iran has lost that deterrent. That may be Israel’s greatest victory of all.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government; Israel; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Philosophy; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 2006israelwar; frontpagemag; hassanbnasrallah; hezbollah; iran; irg; israel; kennethtimmerman; lebanon; madmoslegions; mahmoudahmedinejad; victory; wellkeptsecret
Kenneth Timmerman cuts through the "fog of war" to reveal the astonishing details of Israel's soon to be realized secret well-kept victory. In brief, Hezbollah has been cut down to size, Iran's imperial ambitions in the Middle East has been set back and the Revolutionary Guard Corps of the regime has been bested on the battlefield. Iran has not only lost the means to intimidate Israel, it faces the ouster of its Hezbollah proxy from southern Lebanon and its being stripped of its armament store. There goes the mullahs' dreams of a worldwide jihad. And Israel's victory not only restores the Jewish State's deterrent power; it turns world attention back to Iran's nuclear program. It hasn't played out the way Ahmedinejad, the mullahs and Nasrallah thought it would - they're the ones after all, who have sued for peace in the councils of international diplomacy. For all that, Israel has resisted from gloating. It will take time for the size of Iran's defeat to sink in - and hopefully, that will change the Middle East for the better and put paid to the Iranian mullahs' dreams of wiping the Jewish State off the map.

(Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em Down Hezbullies.)

1 posted on 08/10/2006 5:03:25 AM PDT by goldstategop
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: goldstategop
And yet just minutes ago I read a post on another thread by someoen saying President Bush should stop holding Israel back from what it's got to do...

Israel is winning, and Iran is losing--don't believe the negative hype from those you know better than to listen to.

2 posted on 08/10/2006 5:08:09 AM PDT by Darkwolf377 (http://www.dansimmons.com/news/message/2006_04.htm)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop
we have to make sure that our enemies will not be able to project the image that they are similarly successful.

As long as there is one left standing he will claim victory over the "evil" Israel.

3 posted on 08/10/2006 5:09:13 AM PDT by Graybeard58 (Remember and pray for Sgt. Matt Maupin - MIA/POW- Iraq since 04/09/04)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
If you'd like to be on this middle east/political ping list, please FR mail me.

High Volume. Articles on Israel can also be found by clicking on the Topic or Keyword Israel.

also Keywords 2006israelwar or WOT [War on Terror]

----------------------------

4 posted on 08/10/2006 5:12:40 AM PDT by SJackson (The PilgrimsóDoing the jobs Native Americans wouldn't do!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop
And there's more. For one, the fog (in net) helps Israel, because in this effort Israel is united. It is the Iranians, the Syrians, the Arabs, the Europeans who grinding each other down. Jostling for power, for an edge in the ever-effervescent "future". And they bear grudges. Let them have more against each other. The start-stop, also in net, works the same way -- Israel is less negatively affected, each transition phase is another opportunity for the power-lusting amoung the enemy to make disrupting internal plays within the enemy's power structures . The fog, the start-stop, the jerky incrementalism -- all force the enemy's natural internal divisiveness to come to the fore, whereas the barrages of missiles the HEZ keep lobbing keep the *unifying* forces active is Israel.

The one unifying force for the enemey had been the media -- the propaganda images, causing the animal magnetism alignment of the compasses of hate amoung the street mobs.

But thanks to Free Republic, and follow-oners like Charles Johnson and the other good blogs -- the persian rug has been pulled out from under the media and it ain't flying no mo'.

And there's more.

5 posted on 08/10/2006 5:22:41 AM PDT by bvw
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop
Iran believed that Israel would collapse under a steady barrage of rocket-fire against its northern cities, towns and villages, and sue for peace.

It would be pointless to sue for peace with those who have your complete destruction as their sole purpose. Making glassed over parking lots of Iranian military bases and nuke facilities will help some, but Israel appears tolack the political will to make it so.

As far as the poor Lebanese are concerned, they stood by as the bunkers were built and the weapons moved into place. As did the U(seless) N(othings).

6 posted on 08/10/2006 5:29:59 AM PDT by JimRed ("Hey, hey, Teddy K., how many girls did you drown today?" (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help m)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Comment #7 Removed by Moderator

To: goldstategop

bump for a more positive analysis of the Israel-Lebanon situation...


8 posted on 08/10/2006 5:43:20 AM PDT by RobFromGa (The FairTax cult is like Scientology, but without the movie stars)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Darkwolf377

Thanks. This post does cut through the fog.


9 posted on 08/10/2006 5:47:18 AM PDT by Brad from Tennessee (Anything a politician gives you he has first stolen from you)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

Note to Democrats: Note that in Israel, the parties out of power like Bibe Netenyahu are not saying, "Olmert lied, Israelies died" they fight their wars as a nation united and let political differences go for the duration of the conflict."You Democrats might try this instead of political grandstanding.


10 posted on 08/10/2006 5:52:42 AM PDT by lexington minuteman 1775
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop
Until this war, Iran believed it could deter any Israeli military action against it – in Lebanon, or in Iran – by the threat of massive rocket attacks, essentially using Israel’s civilian population as hostages.

IMO, this is where they overplaed their hand. For years now, right here on FR as some people urged Israeli action against the hezbos, others would scream "But they CAN'T attack Hexbo! They have 12000 Katyushas pointing at Israel!" Israel finally said, show us what you got, and it ain't that much.

Next question is, what does Iran have? When will we call THEIR bluff? We'll learn something, maybe, on August 22.

11 posted on 08/10/2006 5:56:36 AM PDT by ichabod1 (Yalla yalla yalla, send you back to allah, screw you inshallah, along with hezballah.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop
This is a humiliation and a wake-up call the Revolutionary Guards have never endured.
Get used to it.
12 posted on 08/10/2006 6:00:55 AM PDT by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: JimRed

95% of the Israeli public support what is going on. If they were polled about taking this war to Syria and destroying Iran's ability to produce oil, I believe you would still be in the 80's.

Iran cannot touch Israel unless they go through Syria. It would make sense then to take out Syrias military infrastructure, plant a sub or two off Iran and declare to the UN that unless the hezzies leave now, Iran will be destroyed.

That is how you fight a war with your enemies.


13 posted on 08/10/2006 6:11:39 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (Democrats - The reason we need term limits)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop
We must engrave in the mind of the enemy that it has suffered a serious setback,” he said.

What better way to make this crystal clear than a public signing of the articles of unconditional surrender by Lebanon. That should be the goal.

14 posted on 08/10/2006 7:18:19 AM PDT by Voltage
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: EQAndyBuzz

and declare to the UN that unless the hezzies leave now, Iran will be destroyed.



How about not giving them a choice, not being nice. How about...Finishing the job then....

"declare to the UN that the hezzies are dead now, Iran IS destroyed and DON'T BOTHER US AGAIN!".


15 posted on 08/10/2006 7:18:54 AM PDT by TomasUSMC ((FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM.))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

I'd like to see Israel very publically taunt Amadinejad. They should be able to humiliate him into striking first. (Of course he may anyways on the 22nd)


16 posted on 08/10/2006 8:22:38 AM PDT by blasater1960 ( Ishmaelites...Still a wild-ass of a people....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TomasUSMC

Because it would be worse to embarrass the Iranians in the eyes of the Arab world then unite everyone against Israel.


17 posted on 08/10/2006 9:18:28 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (Democrats - The reason we need term limits)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

The problem is defining victory and defeat. Victory is depriving the other side of what it wants. Since the Hezbos don't care how many people they lose and since any Israeli capture of territory is known to be temporary (in fact many reports indicate Israel has already agreed to the ridiculous concession of Sheba Farm) the fact that Israelis are advancing and killing Hezbos is not meaningful. The destruction of rockets is good but the Hezbos are still hitting Israel with hundreds of rockets and have largely wrecked Israel's economy. Unless the war ends with Hizballah largely destroyed and unable to threaten Israel I would not consider this a victory for Israel. The Israelis are not considering this a victory so far in that they are changing leadership in the middle of the war.


18 posted on 08/10/2006 10:27:17 AM PDT by Honestfreedom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop
Revolutionary Guards officers, assigned to Hezbollah missile units in Lebanon, have been killed on the battlefield in Lebanon and sent back like dogs in Syrian caskets to Iran.

Damn good writing!!

19 posted on 08/10/2006 10:39:32 AM PDT by DungeonMaster (More and more churches are nada scriptura.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Voltage
What better way to make this crystal clear than a public signing of the articles of unconditional surrender by Lebanon. That should be the goal.

If Lebanon claims to be an innocent victim of the Hezb'Allah terrorists, I don't see Lebanon surrendering to Israel anytime soon.

20 posted on 08/10/2006 10:47:26 AM PDT by newgeezer ("Hezbollah" is a deception. As they are the 'party of Allah', the accurate rendering is "Hezb'Allah")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: newgeezer
If Lebanon claims to be an innocent victim of the Hezb'Allah terrorists, I don't see Lebanon surrendering to Israel anytime soon

Then it will take just a little longer.

21 posted on 08/10/2006 10:50:24 AM PDT by Voltage
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: lexington minuteman 1775
Note to Democrats: Note that in Israel, the parties out of power like Bibe Netenyahu are not saying, "Olmert lied, Israelies died" they fight their wars as a nation united and let political differences go for the duration of the conflict."You Democrats might try this instead of political grandstanding.

I was going to say exactly that but I didn't know how to spell Netenyahu. The other day Netenyahu was being interviewed and he was so focused on the good of Israel. He was asked if he would have done things the same way and he snapped back, tersely but without anger, "That's not important".

Imagine any stinking slimy Democrat asked that question here in the US.

22 posted on 08/10/2006 11:21:01 AM PDT by DungeonMaster (More and more churches are nada scriptura.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop; Knitting A Conundrum

A bit of optimism is a nice thing today. :-)

Thanks,
Pinz


23 posted on 08/10/2006 11:38:50 AM PDT by pinz-n-needlez (Jack Bauer wears Tony Snow pajamas)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson