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08/10/06 FOX News Poll: 2006 Election Anti-Incumbent Fever; Job Ratings (Not Good for Republicans)
Fox News ^ | Thursday, August 10, 2006 | Dana Blanton

Posted on 08/10/2006 7:53:47 PM PDT by UncleJeff

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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist
TX 22 could be classic, Rats should win by default. The write in vote is going to be very difficult (dialing each letter for repb.) but there will be no party line vote. If the candidate even comes close it will be certain one term and your out Lamson. Have faith we are going to fight like hell.
61 posted on 08/10/2006 8:34:36 PM PDT by gumboyaya
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To: tobyhill

The poll was pretty accurate wasn't it, and polling in primaries is a tricky business, particularly when it comes to turnout models?

62 posted on 08/10/2006 8:35:17 PM PDT by Torie
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To: txrangerette

ACU lifetime ratings:

11% Dennis Kucinich
08% Sherrod Brown

Yep, Brown is actually more of a leftist loon than Dennis Kucinich!

63 posted on 08/10/2006 8:36:05 PM PDT by DrDeb
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To: gumboyaya

If that seat gives the Democrats control of the House Tom Delay should be horsewhipped.

64 posted on 08/10/2006 8:38:25 PM PDT by UncleJeff
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To: PackerBoy
Except for the threat of an impeachment of W, I really don't mind the Republicans getting their butts kicked."

Surely you don't mean that. You really wouldn't mind Nancy Pelosi being 2nd in the line of succession to the Presidency? John Conyers heading up the Judicial Committee? The SCOTUS being hijacked for years past your lifetime?

65 posted on 08/10/2006 8:41:23 PM PDT by no dems (
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To: Torie

Yes they were! . . . I analyzed the topline results for 99.9% of the polls conducted during the 2003-2004 election cycle. [Re 2002, read Gerharty's comparative analysis (National Review) of electoral predictions during the summer of 2002 and this summer of 2006.]

66 posted on 08/10/2006 8:42:19 PM PDT by DrDeb
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To: UncleJeff
"...just a Primary."

Unc, bite your tongue! There is no such thing as JUST a primary. Heck, if you're too busy to vote all the time, PLEASE, vote in the primary! That way the rest of us are more likely to have someone decent to vote for! If the dems and the pubs had better candidates in the primaries, we might well have had better candidates in the 2000 and 2004 elections. (admittedly, we might not, either.)
67 posted on 08/10/2006 8:44:25 PM PDT by Old Student (We have a name for the people who think indiscriminate killing is fine. They're called "The Bad Guys)
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To: DrDeb; AntiGuv
Rather than argue with you about my fading memory, I will just bring in the heavy artillery about polls past. There was nothing remotely in such polls that suggested that the normal partisan divide was breached, or that a host of GOP incumbents were in trouble. But if you think this 2006 is remotely like 2004 or 2002, that is certainly your perogative.
68 posted on 08/10/2006 8:45:26 PM PDT by Torie
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To: PackerBoy

I do. I'd like Bush to finish his job in appointing more conservative-leaning judges. Policies' impacts last only until several years. Judges' impact last about one generation. While speed-wise the Bushes haven't done the job well, having a Democratic Senate would surely make the job more difficult.

69 posted on 08/10/2006 8:48:36 PM PDT by paudio (Universal Human Rights and Multiculturalism: Liberals want to have cake and eat it too!)
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To: UncleJeff
I don't dismiss them as meaningless regardless what the results but I do scrutinize the samples and the wording of the questions. There was this poll recently that claimed 60% of the US is against the war in Iraq but the question was in favor of a timed pullout, two separate issues one bias poll. If pollsters were actually so confident in their own results then the margin of error should be +/-1% which is a total swing of a maximum 2% instead of the usual +/-3.5% which is a swing of maximum 7%. Also, if they want more accurate polls then they should quit using the old 90's party affiliation samples and use the '04 templates of a generous 47% Rats, 44% Republicans and 9% true Independents.
70 posted on 08/10/2006 8:49:41 PM PDT by tobyhill (The War on Terrorism is not for the weak.)
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To: andre573

I wish I could do that this year, but my Rino senator's name starts with John and ends with McCain.

71 posted on 08/10/2006 8:50:46 PM PDT by Stayingawayfromthedarkside
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To: UncleJeff
I too was upset with DeLay at first but remember if the Rats had not filed the law suit the commission was prepared to allow a substitute candidate. Lamson could not win heads up on merit and issues so he went to his buddies on the courts to insure win. We intend to make this very clear to the voters.
72 posted on 08/10/2006 8:51:12 PM PDT by gumboyaya
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To: UncleJeff

Just remember to vote!

73 posted on 08/10/2006 8:53:31 PM PDT by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life)
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To: Torie

I wouldn't say accurate since they missed the number just a few days earlier by 9%. If polling in primaries is that tricky for pollsters and there are that many variables then they really shouldn't put their little credibility on the line with such a risk of getting it too wrong

74 posted on 08/10/2006 8:54:24 PM PDT by tobyhill (The War on Terrorism is not for the weak.)
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To: Old Student

Yeah, but my point was that if they turned out 250,000 for a Primary, in an off-year, what will November look like nationwide??

If Republicans keep whistling past this graveyard they stand fair to get plowed under. It's fun to tell each other that Democrats are "traitors" and "hate America" but the number of voters buying it is declining by the day.

Then the day after they take control of the House (probable) and/or Senate (unlikely, but more possible now than six months ago) we can start blaming somebody else for our hubris.

75 posted on 08/10/2006 8:54:31 PM PDT by UncleJeff
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To: Torie; AntiGuv


Looking around at assessments of the midterm elections in the heat of August:

IN USA TODAY, “Economy, more than war, setting tone for elections,”:

A battle for control of the most closely divided Congress in 70 years enters its final and decisive phase... But for many voters, the economy appears to have eclipsed terrorism as a top concern. And that has made Democrats more optimistic than they have been in months...

Steve Moore of the Club for Growth, a conservative political action committee dominated by well-to-do investors, is even more blunt. "If the economy doesn't pick up and the stock market doesn't rebound, the Republicans are going to lose the House and could lose seats in the Senate," he says.

Their Democratic counterparts are talking more optimistically... A recent Gallup Poll showed 50% of registered voters were more likely to vote for Democrats, 42% for Republicans.

"For most of the cycle, we were slogging against the wind," says Rep. Nita Lowey, D-N.Y., chairwoman of the Democrats' House campaign committee. "It's nice in the home stretch to have a changing political atmosphere." At the party's Senate campaign headquarters, Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., sees "a great opportunity to make gains."

FROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, “Bush's deep investment in midterm elections raises stakes for White House,”:

President Bush's vigorous campaigning to elect Republicans in November could make the elections a referendum on his presidency.

Bush has been more active than most presidents in the midterm election cycle. He has personally recruited candidates, raised millions of dollars and traveled to dozens of states in an effort to help the GOP...

"If Republicans lose ground in the House and Senate, it'll be a major embarrassment to him," said Gilbert St. Clair, political science professor at the University of New Mexico. Still, he also said a president "doesn't have much control" over such elections.

The gain or loss of just a few seats could make a major difference in how Congress treats Bush's proposals during the final two years of his term...

Strategists in both parties say that while congressional elections depend heavily on local issues and trends, the war on terrorism and Bush's hands-on effort in many races have made him an issue, too.

RYAN LIZZA OF THE NEW REPUBLIC, writing in the San Gabriel Valley Tribune, “Bush's political capital may buy him nothing but trouble,”:

The economy is stagnant, consumer confidence is shaky and a majority of voters are pessimistic about the economy's near-term prospects. On national security, polls show that voters are not inclined to cast their ballots based on the issue; worse, according to National Journal's Charlie Cook, the recent debate over attacking Iraq may have hurt Bush's approval rating.

The danger for Bush is that the more time he spends politicking out in the country, the more the... election results will be interpreted as about him.

[In] states Bush carried or where his candidates enjoy incumbency, he has already lost the expectations game in these races. If Republicans win all of them, it will be a significant victory for him, but losing any one will be considered a giant defeat.

Bush is spending his political capital alright, but if the GOP loses at the polls this fall, he may find it has bought him nothing but trouble.

STEVE NEAL, CHICAGO SUN-TIMES, “Fate may smile on Democrats,”:

From all indications, this fall's midterm elections should confirm the Judis-Teixeira thesis... They could win back the House on Nov. 5 and are favored to win key governorships. For the Democrats, happy days may be here again.

DEL ALI, Del Ali, writing in the CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, “Deciding the fall elections,”:

Which side will be successful this November? Polling numbers and historical patterns may provide the best clues.

Little has changed since the 2000 election in terms of voter attitudes toward the two major political parties. For example, Democrats are still faring better among women, and Republicans better with men. Women voters rank the need to improve education and the economy as the two most important issues, while men rank fighting terrorism and reducing taxes as the their top two issues this fall. The racial gap among white and black voting preferences persists. A majority of white voters prefers to see more Republicans elected to Congress, while less than 5 percent of black voters feel the same.

While President Bush's overall ratings are high, his ratings on dealing with the economy and education are significantly lower. In some states, they are hovering around the 50 percent threshold of approval. Historically, high overall approval numbers for a sitting president do not translate into midterm election gains for the party controlling the White House. Indeed, the party controlling the White House generally loses seats in Congress during the midterm elections.

But there have been exceptions. During the 1962 midterm election under John F. Kennedy, the Democrats gained seats in Congress. Many feel that President Kennedy's handling of the cuban missile crisis was directly responsible for those gains. More recently, in the 1998 midterm elections, the Democrats gained seats in Congress in spite of President Clinton's forthcoming impeachment.

Yet if history is a true judge, President Bush, like his father years earlier who also enjoyed high-approval ratings among voters during midterm elections, will see his party lose House seats in Congress. And the delicate Republican hold on that chamber will be lost.

Oh, wait, I'm sorry, all of these analyses are from August 2002, the year Republicans successfully held 19 seats in the Senate and picked up two additional Democratic seats to regain control of that chamber, and expanded their House majority by an additional seven seats. (I deleted references to the year and races that were specific to that year, like Jeb Bush's reelection.)

But funny how much campaign coverage can get recycled from year to year, huh?

76 posted on 08/10/2006 8:56:19 PM PDT by DrDeb
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To: gumboyaya

So, instead of it being Delay's fault for not knowing Texas Election Law, it's the Democrat's fault for knowing it??

Delay, and nobody else, screwed that pooch, and the convoluted write-in effort isn't likely to salvage it.

Horsewhip him.

77 posted on 08/10/2006 8:58:20 PM PDT by UncleJeff
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To: DrDeb

My quick scan of your post does not notice any polls adduced. Maybe it is my eyes.

78 posted on 08/10/2006 8:59:39 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie; DrDeb

"Their Democratic counterparts are talking more optimistically... A recent Gallup Poll showed 50% of registered voters were more likely to vote for Democrats, 42% for Republicans."

This from '02 also?

79 posted on 08/10/2006 9:03:27 PM PDT by tobyhill (The War on Terrorism is not for the weak.)
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To: UncleJeff
If the only piece of information a voter had was that one candidate was the incumbent and the other was a newcomer, the poll finds that by 46 percent to 21 percent people say they would be more inclined to vote for the challenger.(snip)

If the election were held today, 48 percent of Americans say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district and 30 percent for the Republican candidate. This 18-percentage point edge is up from an 8-point advantage in mid-July and a 13-point lead in June.

Opinion Dynamics Corporation conducted the national telephone poll of 900 registered voters for FOX News from August 8 to August 9. The poll has a 3-point error margin.

So 46% would vote for the challenger and 21% would vote for the incumbent so what do the other 33% do?!

I know there is some analytical science going on here that is somewhat legitimate but with 435 congressional offices up for grabs that equals 2 registered voters per Congressional district (I won't bother with the Senate stats breakdown). That's too fickle for me to give a lot of creedence to.

PS: Don't forget how Lieberman almost closed a huge gap that was a nick under 20 points two weeks ago.

80 posted on 08/10/2006 9:05:15 PM PDT by torchthemummy (Abortion: One Dead, One Wounded)
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