You don't really think that 95% of GOP voters will follow through and turn out in a midterm election do you, or any election for that matter? But yes, the problem despite what you read on FR, is not so much with GOP voters, except in a few places. It is with the "independents."
As was discovered in 2000, 2002, and 2004 the percent of truly Independent voters is a mere 5-7% . . . Just as it was in 2004, the 2006 election will be determined by the effectiveness of the Republican and Democrat 'Get Out the Vote' (GOTV) efforts!