Mexican Left seeks annulment of over 3 million votes in presidential election recount (Translation)

La Crónica de Hoy ^ | August 12, 2006 | Daniel Blancas Madrigal ( translated by self )

[GeronL]

Is that like throwing out the votes of the military because the stamps weren't canceled?

[4woodenboats]

It worked for Gregoire

[4woodenboats]

I see a little bit of dead cat bounce there, followed by an inverted plateau....lol

[4woodenboats]

Thet one's gonna give me nightmares....whoa!

[Shuttle Shucker]

Thanks for the cartoon. I'd seen that before but the straight jacket's not as pronounced. Nevertheless, my thirst is quenched :-)
Meanwhile, you made a good point here:

>>>AMLO knows that if the entire election is annulled, he will have no chance in a second round with Calderon, because of the disenchantment of many of his own followers, and even more so perhaps because of the "making of the peace" between the PRI and PAN, which AMLO himself has brought about.<<<

I don't know how much of a coup he could stage, however. He doesn't control the military, after all. And he knows the USA (whose language he doesn't even understand) is already sick of problems on its border, and might not allow such mess to be made at the expense of human and other rights in Mexico (where at least a hundred thousand gringos would need to be rescued too). AMLO's options are limited but I don't know how many defections he will have. Unfortunately Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard appears to be on his side. I'm not sure why; he could be the party's presidential candidate in 2012 if AMLO has to back down in disgrace.

[SAJ]

Good to know. Thanks for the dope.

[Shuttle Shucker]

I wonder if Mexico's drug cartel would back AMLO... They've reportedly had to turn increasingly to kidnapping Mexicans AND selling drugs to MEXICANS because Fox has reportedly cracked down on 'em.

[dr_who_2]

Same cynical tactics, different country.

[StJacques]

"Granted, Mexico has nothing like the coca growers as a sort of wedge force, but I wonder if AMLO is likely to begin a campaign of destabilization, if he can't pull off a true coup."

I've been trying to think this one over myself. The military and the police -- both at the federal level of course -- will never side with AMLO. But that is not to say that he cannot create real difficulties. He's got real stroke with the petroleum workers union, largely centered in Tabasco, and they're worried about the potential loss of jobs if Calderon modernizes the petroleum industry, so they could create real havoc. He's got stroke within Chiapas and Oaxaca, where there is enough of a radicalized population to take to the streets on his behalf, so I could envision both of those states in "open rebellion" if I could put it that way. And finally, the PRD controls the Federal District government in Mexico City, which could be a very dangerous card to play, because it might lead to a complete meltdown. But those are the assets I see.

A seizure of the oil fields by the petroleum workers appears to me to be the farthest that AMLO and the PRD would be willing to go if they remain "reasoning" individuals in any sense of the term as we use it. Over time, such a seizure would have to be met with force, and that might redound to AMLO's advantage. In one way or another he needs to provoke a reaction from the federal government, the popular reaction to which will put him at the head of the "uncounted millions" of poor Mexicans who stand no chance against the wealthy and powerful. It's all about myth, not reality.

[livius]

I wonder if Mexico's drug cartel would back AMLO...

That's an interesting question. StJ, what do you think?

[livius]

He's got real stroke with the petroleum workers union, largely centered in Tabasco, and they're worried about the potential loss of jobs if Calderon modernizes the petroleum industry, so they could create real havoc.

This is a significant point. Getting the unions involved would probably be his best bet, and the strategy has worked very well in other LatAm states.

As for Chiapas, I think that's also a problem. Incidentally, there is a small but needs-to-be-watched Muslim population there; the head of the Spanish terrorist group ETA in Mexico converted to Islam and sent out "missionaries" in that area. Most of the converts are indigenas who had first converted to Pentecostal Protestantism during the time of the leftist Catholic bishop, Samuel Ruiz, and then moved on to Islam. There's a new bishop there now, however, not a lefty, and IIRC, the Mexican government kicked out the Islamic "missionaries" a couple of years ago (they were funded by some other foreign power, perhaps Saudi Arabia, I'm not sure).

[Texas Mom]

Is Al Gore one of his campaign volunteers?

[StJacques]

On the drug cartels, it's a mixed question, because I would expect them to be divided, since many of them are at war with each other. In the real sense of the term as it was used originally in Colombia, Mexico's drug lords do not run "Cartels" in the way they developed in Colombia. True "Drug Cartels" are a union among formerly rival gangs who come together in a common agreement to reduce competition among and between each other to share in the profits of a unified operation. That was what developed in Colombia with the Medellin and Cali cartels, who united numerous gangs together into an expanded enterprise. Mexico really doesn't have that, their drug operations are much closer to true "gangs" as we would use the term.

What is truly troubling is that some of the Mexican drug operations have recently expanded their connections in South America. They are making contacts with Peruvian, Bolivian, and Colombian drug operations, including well-developed contacts with the FARC in Colombia. These drug gangs are mostly former underlings of the Colombian cartels who, believe it or not, have been truly hurt by that nation's crackdown on the drug business over the past fifteen years or so and, today, the Colombian cartels are nowhere near the power-brokers of the drug trade they used to be. The vacuum that has been created has enabled the former Mexican "mules" to step in and develop expanded operations in their own right.

But it is because of these contacts with the Leftist-connected Latin American drug lords that one would have to assume that the Mexican drug operations would lean Left. Fox has actually had some real success in breaking a number of big operations in Mexico, but what this has led to is what is described in the article I'm about to quote as "atomization," to wit:

". . . Upstart groups like the Zetas have emerged largely as a result of the Mexican government's recent crackdown on the big cartels that have long monopolized the country's $25 billion-a-year drug trade. Experts call the phenomenon "atomization": as the large Mafias decompose, more reckless "microcartels" spin off or move in. In their heyday in the 1980s and '90s, Mexico's biggest kingpins ran networks that employed thousands of people; now gangs like the Zetas, whose members number at most in the low hundreds, are waging vicious battles against one another--and against remnants of cartels like the Sinaloa Mafia--to gain a foothold in the trade. . . ."

The important point about all of this is the fact that there really are no drug cartels in Mexico capable of exercising any kind of political role in national politics. So far as the Mexican drug gangs are concerned, "all politics is local." I do not see them exercising any kind of real influence upon the outcome of the election, though I suspect many of them will sympathize with AMLO, especially those developing South American contacts as I mentioned earlier. And they certainly have no love for PAN, given that Fox's crackdown has broken the backs of many of the formerly-bigger operations. But then maybe the smaller newcomers appreciate that. Hmmm . . .

[StJacques]

We have unofficial word that Al Gore is Lopez Obrador's spiritual advisor. :-)

[jmcenanly]

Is George Soros involved in this?

[StJacques]

Okay, I have some recount updates for all of you here. The short version is that some of the latest results show larger numbers gained for Lopez Obrador, though still not anything near the types of numbers they need.

In Michoacan they have concluded the recount. PAN lost 83 votes, AMLO gained 74 for a net gain of 157 for AMLO.

In Sinaloa they have also finished their recount, and we are told that the For the Good of All coalition lost 18 votes. No other information is given.

In Chihuahua the word is that they have completed 72% of the recount and we are hearing very loud denunciations from the PRD, which the IFE representative on the scene refutes. No numbers are given. The PRD spokesman says there is evidence of what he describes as a regular instance of "overvotes" in electoral packets in which the overall votes consistently go to Calderon, which he cites as evidence of "ant fraud" (a little bit of fraud in each precinct). The IFE representative disputed that and said there are "minimal involuntary errors which are normal."

In Jalisco they are over 98% complete and the variation among public statements of the PAN and PRD representatives are so widespread as to what is happening that it is difficult to tell the truth. The PAN spokesman says that Calderon lost about 1,600 votes while AMLO lost about 200. But the PRD representative says that Calderon lost 2,774 while AMLO gained 229 votes, though the number of total electoral packets he referenced was less than the total counted according to the article. The PRD spokesman also said that 774 contested ballots were being forwarded to the central office of the Tribunal for rulings on their status.

In Guanajuato they have one district left to count and the PRD is claiming the most widespread evidence of "irregularities" has been discovered, which -- they claim -- touches upon 98% of all electoral packets. No numbers are given, but yesterday we were told that the recount was favoring AMLO by a gain of 961 net votes. This is the state to watch everyone. But that's all I have for it right now.

The results in Campeche say that 90% - 95% of the recount totals correspond to the election day counts. No actual numbers are given. But it did say that the "Secretary of the Navy" provided "elements" to guard the recount in the city of Carmen, which may suggest that they expected trouble they did not get.

And for a closing note, how about a look at the PRD spin on all of this? According to the incoming PRD Head of Government of the Federal District, Marcelo Ebrard, "more than 30,000 excess ballots have been found" in the recount. LOL! I don't know where they are getting those numbers. It's certainly not new votes counted. And it doesn't coincide with the "overvote" totals either. Who knows? This is so outrageous as to qualify as an "outright lie" on the part of the PRD. I take it as evidence that they feel the need to re-energize their base in the Mexico City area, given the negative reaction to their shutdown of the center of the city that has been made evident in recent days.

[StJacques]

All we know is that George Soros is there in spirit.

On a serious note, Soros has spoken up saying there was "massive manipulation" of the electoral process in Mexico by the American right, but that's bunk.

[Reverend Bob]

OK, now I'm starting to get nervous.

I don't like the way all these recounts are going in AMLOs favor. Even if it's not enough to turn the election the trend is sure to fuel further charges of fraud.

No, I don't like it at all.

[Shuttle Shucker]

If I've been reading St Jacques correctly, the precincts that have endured recounting were the most likely to favor ObraGore. If they recounted PAN-contested precincts though, a reverse trend may emerge.

[Shuttle Shucker]

I look forward to seeing how many show up at the Zocalo tomorrow (Sunday). If it's a few thousand, that would be GREAT (but not for the petro-union that Felipe likely salivates over taking on).