Posted on 08/12/2006 12:40:31 PM PDT by LdSentinal
More Nevadans know Jack Carter today than four months ago, but the president's son turned Democratic Senate candidate is still far from giving the Republican incumbent a competitive run.
According to a new Review-Journal poll, if the general election were held today, Sen. John Ensign would attract 54 percent of the state's votes. Almost a quarter, 23 percent, of Democrats would vote for him, as would half of Clark County, a Democratic stronghold.
Thirty-three percent of voters statewide said they'd vote for Carter, and 13 percent were undecided.
"We've got work to do, but I'm pleased with the direction it's coming," Carter said in a telephone interview between campaign events in Northern Nevada on Friday.
"I think I'm going to win. But everybody knows him. People don't know me. It's up to us to get that out." The Mason-Dixon Polling &
Research survey, commissioned by the Review-Journal, reviewjournal.com and KVBC-TV, Channel 3, surveyed 625 registered voters by telephone this week. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Ensign recalled his 1998 bid to unseat Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., in which he started at the bottom of a similar point spread. But by November, he failed by only about 400 votes.
"I don't think the polls this early in the game are something you can, one, rely on because they're an indicator at a point in time," he said. "If you take anyone lightly because you are up you can have what almost happened to Harry Reid. I never want to have that happen. I learned my lesson from Harry."
The good news for Carter is he's attracted more Democrats and independents to his base and is up 6 points since a Review-Journal poll in April. Ensign is down 6 points since that survey was conducted.
"The big difference between the April poll and the (August) poll is Carter's name recognition went from 44 percent to 74 percent, so his name ID has jumped 30 points," said Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon. "You raise your name ID, it'll move numbers."
Neither candidate has a strong challenger in Tuesday's primary.
Come November, Carter should have Clark County locked up, but Ensign will take the election, predicted David Damore, a University of Nevada, Las Vegas political science professor. "I think he'll (Ensign will) be able to weather the storm, but it may turn out to be closer than he initially thought," Damore said.
For Carter to win, he'll have to give voters a reason not to vote for Ensign and go negative, he said.
But Erik Herzik, a University of Nevada, Reno political science professor, said it'll be hard to turn Ensign's base when the senator hasn't alienated anyone but liberals.
"People are not dissatisfied with John Ensign, and that's another problem Carter has. His only issue is: I don't like George Bush. Well, George Bush isn't on the ballot. John Ensign is," Herzik said.
Carter said he doesn't need to get negative.
"Just look at his voting record," Carter said. "I'm not going to go negative on the guy, he's probably a good guy. He voted against stem cell research ... He cuts back on federal spending for veterans at a time when this war is creating disabled veterans hand over fist. He's lousy on the environment. It's the support of the Bush administration I think that makes him vulnerable."
What a surprise.
Son-of-a-goober!
Since there will be no more Carters elected from Georgia, it speaks volumes that he had to go 2,000 miles west to find a place to be a semi-viable candidate.
Jack could show his true stripes and get elected in the Northeast. No, wait. All of their Senators are already mentally handicapped liberals.
It's kind of a joke to claim the son of a former President doesn't have name recognition, isn't it?
Oh geez. That's all Nevada needs, a Carter. Next thing you know, Carter will install an Ayatollah as gaming commissioner.
Yes they do know you and your father. Which is exactly why you will fail miserably on election day.
shoeing horses alone does not make u worthy of public office.
What else has this baboso done to deserve anyones vote?
It's one thing to be a carpetbagger, it's another to be a carpetbagger son of the worst president in history.
Somehow, with Vegas show girls in burqas it just won't be the same.
Is this one the pot-smoker?
Aw ya never know, they might just flash a peek at a patch of ankle to get you all excited!
That was Chip Carter.
But, according to their mother, all three of the Carter boys smoked marijuana.
Not many here at FR thought carter's son would do much in this election....he's just another dimwit...wish he'd get a clue...like many of us raised by dimwits....
God... that Noelle Bush is 26 going on 46... shame what drugs/booze can do once it grabs you by the short-hairs.
Is Noelle Jeb's daughter?
They know his dad and know that the rotten appeasing incompetent apple doesn't fall far from the tree.
Yeah...
This is good news, but yet another indicator of how polls are rather meaningless at this point. Didnt Rasmussen show Ensign ahead of Carter by a much smaller margin just a couple of weeks ago? Polls have been all over this year, just as they were in '04. Democrats shouldnt be proclaiming victory so early.
Looks like an older John Elway!
Is it true that Ensign has a pack of killer rabbits in reserve, just in case?
From the looks of him, I'm not sure that it's only pot that he's been "smoking."
Sumpin' lak dat....
It's kind of a joke to claim the son of a former President doesn't have name recognition, isn't it?
I do not think it is the type of name recognition he wants.
Yeah, but Goober Spawn sounds down right nasty.
"Carter" -- A name that will live in infamy!
This result makes more sense. Rasmussen showed Ensign up only 7 over Carter a couple of weeks ago. Clearly Scott's sampling in Nevada was flawed.
Just a name to fill in a ballot so they would not be embarrassed. Hey every six years somebody runs against frenchie and that fat bastard up in big dig land.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.