Expert Opinion: Mexico's Electoral Tribunal has finished recounts for Lopez Obrador (Translation)

eluniversal.com.mx ^ | August 13, 2006 | Arturo Zárate Vite ( translated by self )

[Shuttle Shucker]

Can't get much closer to zero than that :-)

[SAJ]

SURE ya can...heh heh heh.

Not quite certain yet about **exactly** when tradesports will settle the contract, but I'll stick around for the extra couple of points. Can't see any real risk to the position at all, MAINLY thanks to Saint's fantastic news updates.

It strikes me he ought to start a subscriber service for AntiamericanPukes, UtterlyPatheticIdiots, al-Reuters, et al. Surely at least two or three news 'services' worldwide would pay for up-to-the-minute commentary accurately translated, wouldn't they?

FReegards, amd good trading to you!

[StJacques]

"You are speaking legally, what about 'the streets"?

Are the (farther) leftists ready to take their medicine?"

Well would you like to hear what AMLO said this morning?

From (in Spanish):

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/368532.html

It's entitled "AMLO says that the protests could last for years"

Quoted excerpt:

"Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has already made plans to keep up his protests until the 16th of September, even though he said that his actions could last for years . . .

. . . 'We are prepared to resist for whatever time is necessary, for years, if that is what the circumstances merit,' he assured. . . ."

I personally have doubts that he can keep his people in line for that long. Especially since their numbers are dwindling, though I cannot find any specific ones to give for today's demonstration.

So my ultimate answer is that for the short term, things will stay together. For the long term, I have my doubts.

I wish I could speak with more certainty on this norton. But that's the best that I can do.

[StJacques]

"Might anybody know how many showed up? I heard 4 thousand showed up last Saturday from one source who voted for him down there. She says folks are sick of AMLO's antics."

I know his numbers are dwindling Shuttle Shucker, because there have been numerous commentaries across a number of articles I have been reading over the past week and a half or so, but I cannot find a quoted estimate for today's demonstration. But I will post it to you if and when I do.

[StJacques]

"Surely at least two or three news 'services' worldwide would pay for up-to-the-minute commentary accurately translated, wouldn't they?"

You mean I can make money at this? LOL!

[StJacques]

On the numbers of the crowd for AMLO's assembly today, I do not have a number but I just found a description.

This is from:

http://www.cronica.com.mx/nota.php?id_nota=255865

"The followers of the presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador have now almost filled the space of the Zocalo capital square in front of the grandstand where at 11:00 a.m. they hope the presidential candidate will speak. . . ."

Now; I'm going to take this description strictly and say that if they are only filled up in front of the grandstand, that means the sides of the plaza square are not filled, so I think we are looking at a crowd of between 50 - 75,000. That's still large by American standards but a few weeks ago he had almost a million in the streets. Again, this is not a scientific estimate, just the best I can do with what I am reading. I've looked for pics, but found none.

But all in all, I would be shocked to hear that more than 100,000 showed up. And that article was put up at 12:02, so it couldn't have been that old.

[BunnySlippers]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/99a5df12-2b30-11db-b77c-0000779e2340.html

Lopez Obrador Gives Ultimatum

The leftwing candidate in Mexico's disputed presidential elections vowed yesterday to escalate his strategy of civil resistance "to its ultimate consequences" if the country's electoral authorities did not order a full recount of the votes cast on July 2.
---
Yesterday Mr López Obrador said the blockade would continue as long as it took to defend democracy. "We are prepared to resist for as long as it takes. We could be here for years if the circumstances warrant it," he said.

He promised to protest at every one of Mr Calderón's acts as head of state were the tribunal to confirm him as the official winner.

[StJacques]

Thank you for the link BunnySlippers. Did you notice the article said "significantly smaller crowd than usual" about his audience today?

AMLO may very well attempt to do exactly what he is threatening. But what will eventually happen is that the people he is hurting will become "PRD haters" for life, if he doesn't back off soon. Mexico's Federal District is a PRD stronghold, though PAN did poll quite a few more votes in the state this time than in 2000, and they even carried something like four or five of the DF's electoral districts. The longer AMLO keeps it up, the worse off his party will become. And that is not an unwelcome future for Mexico. And eventually, someone in the PRD with the stroke to do something about it will recognize this and they will take action to put new leadership in power. Just wait!

[BunnySlippers]

AMLO may very well attempt to do exactly what he is threatening. But what will eventually happen is that the people he is hurting will become "PRD haters" for life, if he doesn't back off soon

Good evening.

Yes, good point. I have taken some hope from the fact that people are starting to become sick of Obrador. He appears to lack the knowledge of when to stop and throw your support to the good of the whole country.

[A CA Guy]

But the results of the Mexican election shows Gore won the election by 500 votes.

[BunnySlippers]

Hahaha ... yes, Obrador seems to be the ultimate Sore/Loserman.

[SAJ]

Why the hell not, Saint? Pretty obviously, not a single one of the English-language LBM alleged 'news' organisations has provided what you have over the past 5+ weeks.

As they say, ''find a need and fill it''. Seems to me you're doing exactly that. Why not fill up the wallet by doing essentially exactly what you're doing this very minute, for the unimaginative and helpless clowns and clownettes in the LBM?

[A CA Guy]

He has weapons of mass delusions.

[StJacques]

SAJ, it's nice to know I've got someone in my corner. Thanks!

[StJacques]

". . . I have taken some hope from the fact that people are starting to become sick of Obrador. He appears to lack the knowledge of when to stop . . ."

You are definitely right in that observation. It comes down to weighing Costs vs. Benefits. The Costs of pursuing the civil disobedience campaign for the PRD began to outweigh the Benefits after the first week of the shutdown of Mexico City's business district. So long as it continues, that basic relationship will remain unchanged and the Costs continue to mount . . . and mount . . . and mount . . . I think you get the picture.

I am among the lot of you who get very #&&%@*%**#$@%% off with the Left in Mexico for what they're doing right now. But if I step back for a minute and get a grip on myself, I can see that in the long run, they may be destroying any chance they've ever had of becoming a ruling party in Mexican political life. I mean, they came very close to winning the presidency this time around. Six years from now they could be in a position to challenge again, provided that they became respectable. But they're throwing that away right now.

Y muy buenas noches a Usted

[Shuttle Shucker]

Perhaps far fewer than 75,000. Hopefully we'll eventually find out.

[Shuttle Shucker]

[Shuttle Shucker]

And try to get links from Drudge so folks can discover your fine work. Drudge hasn't covered the ObraGore story in weeks.

[Shuttle Shucker]

>>>can see that in the long run, they may be destroying any chance they've ever had of becoming a ruling party in Mexican political life.<<<

Refreshingly enough, the PRD and its union thugs, academic sycophants and think tank cronies are all declawing their own abilities to block [during the near term] long overdue labor, petroleum, electricity and other antimonopoly reforms as well. One could call the latest PRD mess "bloodletting". More folks (even PRDsters that I know) see them for their true colors now... power-hungry and intellectually obtuse (if not downright intentionally irrational) at the expense of those they claim to want to help.

[Shuttle Shucker]

The San Francisco Chronicle-owned Houston Chronicle says tens of thousands attended Sunday's rally:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4114475.html

Not quite enough to start a massive revolution, as long as they don't go overboard with their tactics (that will soon become easier to punish since a winner will be declared).