Expert Opinion: Mexico's Electoral Tribunal has finished recounts for Lopez Obrador (Translation)

eluniversal.com.mx ^ | August 13, 2006 | Arturo Zárate Vite ( translated by self )

[Shuttle Shucker]

Sigh...that same article also says:

>>>The [PRD] coalition's strength in both houses of the new Congress will make it all but impossible for Calderon, if named president, to win constitutional changes to even partially privatize energy industries.
<<<

I wonder how many of Mexico's labor protections are constitutionally-based? Felipe would do well to focus on that which the PRD can't block.

[Shuttle Shucker]

It's not clear that Felipe and a PAN / PRI alliance will get to do much to amend the Mexican Constitution with the PRD predictably unified against him / them at every term, although I didn't see here:

http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/1.pdf

precisely what's needed to amend it (even using the searchbox for enmendar, enmienda, cambiar & modificar). So I guess sweeping energy and electricity reforms are out for the next 3 years although fortunately a lot of labor law protections seem to be protected mainly by federal labor laws instead of the Constitution, specifically (even though it's mentioned in Art. 123 I vaguely recall). And Felipe will have the 2nd half of the sexenio during which the voting public may reduce the PRD's percentages, too (if some PRDista or narcotraficante doesn't assassinate Felipe first). I'm not sure whether or not state legislatures are required to amend the Constitution too, like they are in the USA.

[StJacques]

I tend to believe that there are "legal loopholes" which permit some privatization of the petroleum industry without requiring a constitutional amendment. I am certain that ownership of the producing rights cannot be transferred outside of constitutional address, but that only means that the state must remain the owner of the oil that is produced. Regardless of how any laws, constitutional or statutory, may be written, there are devices of contractual arrangement that can be implemented to permit increased foreign participation in Mexican oil development. On ownership alone, all that is required is that Mexico formally receive the oil, after which it can do what it wants with it. And there are ways to do "end runs" around the other aspects of petroleum law as well without amending the Mexican constitution, so that is not off the table in the coming Congress.

My late father was a Petroleum Engineer and I have been around the oil business all my life. Lafayette, Louisiana, where I live, is the center of the oil industry in Louisiana, where we produce more oil than any other state in the union, we are 2nd in natural gas production, and 2nd overall in total energy production (see here, page 4). I hear a lot of discussion around town about the potential for developing Mexican offshore oil and natural gas, believe me, it can be done if there is nominal support for it in the Mexican Congress (less than 2/3 support).

[Shuttle Shucker]

Hi Saint:
A college friend during the late 1980's was from LA (Baton Rouge) and said the overall economy was the pits due to the price of oil or something. I guess it's much better now? I'm surprised that Texas doesn't produce more though, since it's so much larger and oil's part of the culture in some regions. Anyhow, hopefully Lousiana companies could benefit from an increasingly open petro sector in Mexico. Brazil opened up its sector and benefited, and is also now a net exporter of the grain or whatever from which they make fuel substitutes (whose name escapes me amidst the multitasking that I'm performing).

[Shuttle Shucker]

Ethanol

[StJacques]

I'm going to put up a quick translation (I didn't edit myself on this one) of a short article at El Universal giving the details of a radio interview with a PAN spokesman on the numbers of the recount. The substance of the interview is meant to give the PAN response to a claim of Horacio Duarte, a member of Lopez Obrador's legal team representing his challenges to the Electoral Tribunal, that the PAN has lost more than 14,000 votes in the recount.

Based on the PAN response, which does not yet rule out the possibility that Calderon may still come out ahead in the recount, I think we can discount the PRD party line:

---

Martinez Cazares assures that PAN lost 6 thousand votes

The party representative points out that the recount still needs to verify the status of 8 thousand ballots that are themselves doubtful.¹

At odds with that which the For the Good of All coalition reports, the National Action Party would have lost 6 thousand votes in the recount; so indicates German Martinez Cazares, representative of the light blue² party before the IFE.

In an interview with Sergio Sarmiento on "The Net of Radio Net," Martinez Cazares indicated that in this new scrutiny, "we are losing 6 thousand votes in relation to the district count, which is to say, the figure could be 3,500 votes more or less in relation to that which the district counts designated to us on Wednesday, July 5."

The PAN party member mentioned that in the case of the For the Good of All coalition, they would have lost some 300 votes; and with this "they opened 26% of those electoral packets which the PRD requested in their electoral challenge appeal; it's a sample larger than that which the IFE used in its quick count."³ Martinez Cazares discounted that this loss of votes is a negative for Felipe Calderon because one does not yet know the results of more than 8 thousand doubtful votes which all have been sent to the Tribunal, "we can come out underneath or we can come out ahead in the recount."

He indicated that the PRD is throwing figures around which have no sustaining basis, "of those more than 11 thousand electoral packets they are trying to challenge; the Tribunal has said that when the do the recount they cannot be nullified by error."

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Notes:

¹The word "doubtful" refers to the 8 thousand "null" ballots (ballots containing errors in the way they are marked) which either party has challenged and to which the local magistrate overseeing the recount could not make a determination as to their status. These have been sent to the home office of the Electoral Tribunal in Mexico City for final determination.

²The words "light blue" refer to the color albiazul, which is the color the PAN party uses on its symbol and is frequently used as a synonym for PAN in common discourse.

³The "quick count" German Martinez Cazares refers to was a "representative sampling" of vote returns done by the IFE on the night of the election to provide an early indication of the likely results. They had Calderon just slightly ahead of Lopez Obrador.

---

I made a prediction last night that I expected the final net loss for Calderon to be somewhere in the 6,000 vote range and I believe that when we hear the figure from the Electoral Tribunal later this week it will be somewhere in that neighborhood. I do not place any stock whatsoever in the PRD's numbers.

[norton]

StJ:
Comments on the 'surrounding' and 'gassing' reports of Monday night?

[StJacques]

I'm going through the reporting on the Mexican web sites right now norton. The short version is that a number of PRD legislators, including both Deputies (Representatives in Lower House) and Senators decided to oversee the erection of a protest encampment on the grounds of the Mexican Congress and the Federal Preventive Police (PFP) came at them in riot gear with tear gas and have taken down the encampment. The reporting I'm reading suggests the police were somewhat mild with the demonstrators but they evidently beat the crap out of a couple of PRD legislators.

There were something in the neighborhood of 500 protestors total. About "30 injuries" were reported.

In the following pic you can see an 18 wheeler with a trailer containing what looks to me to be tarps and tent equipment, which I guess the PRD brought along to set up their encampment, being "treated" by the PFP.



My conclusion; the PRD got outside the "zone of protection" of the Federal District Government and made the mistake of entering Federal Government property. I'm sure what the larger portents of this are yet, but I can tell you that the PRD are screaming a lot. I'm probably going to post something once I can bring the whole story together.

There's a thread going with a Yahoo News article:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1683682/posts

  

[StJacques]

Ping on my #48 above. I'm trying to find out what's going on. Look to hear from me later.

[StJacques]

Apparently the PRD decided to send a bunch of female legislators out to lead the encampment, calculating that the police would be less likely to react forcefully against a group led by women.

Here's an article quote containing the list of PRD lawmakers complaining of receiving and suffering "blows" (golpes) or "nervous trauma" (crisis nerviosa):

---

From: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/368741.html

"At least 11 legislators of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), elected and serving, received from blows or nervous trauma during a confrontation between federal preventive police and persons who were maintaing a protest encampment on the grounds of the Congress of the Union.

Susana Manzanares, Clara Brugada, Juan José García Ulloa, Álvaro Elías Loredo, Elías Moreno Brizuela (who may have a broken rib), Fabián Pedroza, Nancy Cárdenas, Liliana García, Lizbeth Rosas y Dolores Padierna were those affected, according to information provided by Mauricio Toledo, elected deputy for District 30. . . ."

---

That's what's really making headlines right now.

[livius]

Very interesting, thank you.

[GeronL]

lol... so the Federal Districto cops couldn't help them?

[Enterprise]

Human shields. The left does this naturally.

[StJacques]

Okay everyone; after visiting three Mexican news web sites to gather information, I now know what's going on with the incident in Mexico City today, in which the Federal Preventive Police drove away PRD demonstrators attempting to erect a protest encampment (Spanish: plantón) on the grounds of the Mexican National Congress.

To put this in one sentence, Lopez Obrador and the PRD are planning to disrupt President Vicente Fox's scheduled September 1 address to the Mexican Congress, an annual event which is similar to our State of the Union address, and the Federal Preventive Police acted quickly today, before the protest encampment was fully constructed, to drive the demonstrators off the grounds. But AMLO has now announced that he is undeterred in his desire to disrupt that event and he has publicly responded that his plans to do so continue.

We may have a "High Noon" scenario developing here everyone. Markers are being laid down, the tone of public rhetoric is becoming more an more "symbolic" in its content, and what I will describe as an "intransigence" on the part of Lopez Obrador and the PRD to carry their protest harassment to the institutions of the federal government of Mexico is driving this whole process forward. And "High Noon" will be September 1, make no mistake about it.

The following is a translated excerpt from an article on a speech Lopez Obrador gave this afternoon in the Zocalo capital plaza, following news of the confrontation. To understand the symbolism of the ensuing rhetoric, Gustavo Diaz Ordaz was the President of Mexico who ordered the army and police to fire on the demonstrators at Tlatelolco in 1968 (Mexico's version of Tiananmen) and Victoriano Huerta was the Army General who overthrew Ignacio Madero in a coup in February 1913 which started the violent phase of the Mexican Revolution:

---

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador came out in defense of the legislators who led a face-off at the Chamber of Deputies, and for that reason compared President Vicente Fox with Gustavo Diaz Ordaz and Victoriano Huerta.

"Perhaps this is a message to intimidate us? We can become afraid, because we are human beings, but we are not cowards, citizen President. Clearly we are going to go to the Chamber of Deputies on the day of the 1st of September!," he announced.

His followers who are listening daily in the Zocalo capital plaza of Mexico City shouted in chorus "Be tough!, Be tough!, Be tough!" and "You are not alone!, You are not alone!"

Lopez Obrador said that his movement is not going to confront the police and military, "if he (Fox) is going to hold on to that wish, because we are not going to fall for provocations."

The Obrador supporters shouted back "we are not going to be scared away!"

---

High noon is September 1 -- or maybe the day before -- stay tuned!

[StJacques]

ping on my #54 above

[rovenstinez]

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/141694.html A link that says 65% of the people of Mexico City disapprove of the manifestations of the radical left. And 66% disapproval rate of the people giving their governor a bad report card. And 83% of the people have yet to attend or be involved in any of the events. There are some links is you want I can send you of STILL more rain and hail. Those poor people!!! They are truly WET. Monday night another flooding of Eje Central, and hail right where their tents are pitched in the street, flooding.

[GeronL]

Will he be able to replenish his mob by then? Since they have apparently been losing them at each rally.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Felipe's finally giving media interviews now, and he's being firm, yet sufficiently cool & collected:

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/368707.html

I think AMLO had better think twice before messing too much with that lawyer. And that lawyer also has ties who can help surmount the international Leftist movement...as he's a Harvard alum. as well.

[StJacques]

"Will he be able to replenish his mob by then? Since they have apparently been losing them at each rally."

My guess is "yes," though he is not going to be able to turn out the very large numbers he was capable of doing about three weeks ago. But if the PRD has time to plan and if they pull out all the stops, I wouldn't discount the probability of a 100,000 head turnout. They would have to bring them into Mexico City to do that however, but that is a possibility.

[Shuttle Shucker]

AMLO's prospects are next to nil, according to betting types: