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Rice calls Lebanese PM to warn him that if the UN Lebanon resolution is not implemented...
The DEBKA File ^ | August 13, 2006

Posted on 08/13/2006 5:41:09 PM PDT by section9

Rice calls Lebanese PM to warn him that if the UN Lebanon resolution is not implemented, “We will not be responsible for the consequences”

August 13, 2006, 10:18 PM (GMT+02:00)

Earlier, Israeli FM Tzipi Livni put in urgent calls to the US secretary and the French foreign minister in an effort to salvage the ceasefire from Iranian-backed Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s 12th-hour retraction of his consent.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Israel; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 2006israelwar; alqaeda; bombirannow; condi; condoleezzarice; debka; geopolitics; hamas; hezbollah; killalqaeda; killhamas; killhezbollah; lebanon; nasrallah; siniora; terrorists; unres1701
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I found this to be a fascinating little blurb on Debka. Apparently, Tzipi Livni called Condi and told her what Condi already knew was going to happen: Nasrallah was already sabotaging the agreement on orders from Tehran.

There could be another possibility. Nasrallah thought he could walk away from the table holding a pile of chips and a full house, ten high. But his posse is getting clobbered in the south, and they have to be yelling at him to go back to the table to try for that inside straight. If he is actually stupid enough to want to go back to the table and accomodate the IDF, then Olmert may just jump at the life-saver thrown at him by his nemesis.

I can't believe that Nasrallah would be this stupid.

1 posted on 08/13/2006 5:41:10 PM PDT by section9
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To: section9
I can't believe that Nasrallah would be this stupid.

Watch them blow up their own people in order to fake an Israeli attack.

2 posted on 08/13/2006 5:44:21 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The fourth estate is the fifth column.)
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To: section9
If this is true (it is Debka after all), I somehow doubt it comes as much of a surprise to our team who also got the UN resolutions before going into Iraq. These people are methodical, not stupid—despite what some may think. It's good to have the ducks in a row.
3 posted on 08/13/2006 5:45:29 PM PDT by pollyannaish
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To: section9
"I can't believe that Nasrallah would be this stupid."

Really? I can.

But I'm still puzzled and dissappointed in the Freepers who were calling Israel cowards, comparing them to the French and posting white flags. I think that was totally uncalled for. Especially when it's our U.S. government that negotiated the cease fire.

One way this could play out, is to pull the UN into a war with Hezbullah, Syria and Iran when Hezbullah attacks the multinational force. Assuming, against the odds, that a cease fire holds for more than 20 minutes, or that any nations actually volunteer to place their people as targets in South Lebanon.

4 posted on 08/13/2006 5:46:20 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: section9

The gambling analogy is a bit confusing. If he has a full house, "10 high", it would mean he has three tens, and a pair of something else and that would beat a straight or a flush, unless it was a straight flush.


5 posted on 08/13/2006 5:46:38 PM PDT by Enterprise (Let's not enforce laws that are already on the books, let's just write new laws we won't enforce.)
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To: Carry_Okie

What about the soldiers?


6 posted on 08/13/2006 5:46:39 PM PDT by Dallas59 (WHAT THE HELL ARE MUSLIMS DOING IN AMERICA???)
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To: Carry_Okie
With half the rooter's photographers in the middle east on-site to take pictures of the 'zionist aggression' no doubt.
7 posted on 08/13/2006 5:47:23 PM PDT by kinoxi
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To: section9
IMO the Lebanon PM is afraid that Nasralla will turn the guns on him. Heard somewhere that the Hezzbo was better trained and equipped than the Lebanese army.
8 posted on 08/13/2006 5:48:14 PM PDT by hoosiermama
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To: section9

I can't believe that Nasrallah would be this stupid.

When you start believing your own propaganda, mistakes
are made.


9 posted on 08/13/2006 5:48:30 PM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: DannyTN
Its a bad deal. I can understand Hezbollah wanting to save the ceasefire, since they were ones who asked for it in the first place but I have no idea why Israel would want to save Hezbollah!

(Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em Down Hezbullies.)

10 posted on 08/13/2006 5:49:18 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: hoosiermama

Each day that goes by makes Hezbollah less equipped. In time they won't be trained, they'll be dead.


11 posted on 08/13/2006 5:50:24 PM PDT by Enterprise (Let's not enforce laws that are already on the books, let's just write new laws we won't enforce.)
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To: goldstategop

It's just not making sense. But it hasn't made sense for weeks. Then there's the report from IDF of 30 tanks lining up on the Syrian border...


12 posted on 08/13/2006 5:51:37 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet-pray for Israel))
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To: DannyTN

You let teh arm chair commandos here on FR disappoint you? Most of the people here are like the people who call in to talk football on sports talk radio; they never played a day of football in their lives. Don't let the people here disappoint you. Use this forum for what it is and don't worry about it.


13 posted on 08/13/2006 5:52:24 PM PDT by ItisaReligionofPeace
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To: pollyannaish
I somehow doubt it comes as much of a surprise to our team who also got the UN resolutions before going into Iraq. These people are methodical, not stupid—despite what some may think.

OK, I'm one of them. While we were busy with the UN, Saddam and the Rusians were squirreling WMD in Syria, setting up the President for the biggest PR disaster of his administration. At that time Syria was in control of Lebanese ports. By now those weapons could be anywhere, including here in the US.

14 posted on 08/13/2006 5:52:33 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The fourth estate is the fifth column.)
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To: DannyTN

There's a big controversy going on over Israel's actions...not just here but among Israelis themselves.

They seem to blame their own government for its handling of the crisis, not the U.S. And all along that government lauded our diplomatic efforts and seemed to try to tie them in, awkwardly it would seem, to their use of their military.

That government delayed an offensive to the Litani River that could have been had 3 weeks ago, that they are now doing last-minute.


15 posted on 08/13/2006 5:54:16 PM PDT by txrangerette ("We are fighting al-Qaeda, NOT Aunt Sadie"...Dick Cheney commenting on the wiretaps!!)
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To: Enterprise

SO not having a cease fire is to the advantage of the Lebanon PM.


16 posted on 08/13/2006 5:54:17 PM PDT by hoosiermama
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To: Enterprise

NOBODY ever accused me of being able to win at Texas Hold'em.^-^

Be Seeing You,

Chris


17 posted on 08/13/2006 5:54:26 PM PDT by section9 (Major Motoko Kusanagi says, "Jesus is Coming. Everybody look busy...")
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To: section9

I miss the pic you used with your postings a while back.


18 posted on 08/13/2006 5:56:40 PM PDT by libbylu
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To: section9

I have played Texas Hold 'em, And I LOST! Grrrrrr


19 posted on 08/13/2006 5:56:48 PM PDT by Enterprise (Let's not enforce laws that are already on the books, let's just write new laws we won't enforce.)
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To: Carry_Okie
LOL. That doesn't surprise me. We'll still have to agree to disagree.

If this administration didn't have the cover of those resolutions, we would be in worse shape PR wise, imo. Same holds true for Israel. Unfortunately the correct route is not always the direct route.
20 posted on 08/13/2006 5:57:12 PM PDT by pollyannaish
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To: libbylu; section9
I miss the pic too. FWIW
21 posted on 08/13/2006 5:58:04 PM PDT by pollyannaish
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To: section9
There could be another possibility. Nasrallah thought he could walk away from the table holding a pile of chips and a full house, ten high. But his posse is getting clobbered in the south, and they have to be yelling at him to go back to the table to try for that inside straight. If he is actually stupid enough to want to go back to the table and accomodate the IDF, then Olmert may just jump at the life-saver thrown at him by his nemesis.

I like your analysis. If the Hezbo body bags continue to mount, Olmert may survive. I'd much prefer BiBi though.

22 posted on 08/13/2006 5:58:08 PM PDT by demkicker (democrats and terrorists are intimate bedfellows)
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To: DannyTN

The UN forces will never fire a shot. I doubt they're even trained, nor do they have any weapons or ammo.


23 posted on 08/13/2006 5:58:57 PM PDT by Cobra64 (All we get are lame ideas from Republicans and lame criticism from dems about those lame ideas.)
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To: hoosiermama

That is universally accepted truth, hoosiermama. The gulf between their capabilities is too wide to fathom. The Lebanese Army appears to be a joke, a myth, or both. Add to that, it is riddled with supporters of Hezbollah.


24 posted on 08/13/2006 5:59:41 PM PDT by txrangerette ("We are fighting al-Qaeda, NOT Aunt Sadie"...Dick Cheney commenting on the wiretaps!!)
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To: tet68
If Nasrallah shows up to the meeting, Israel needs to follow him back to his hideout.

And bomb it!

25 posted on 08/13/2006 5:59:58 PM PDT by airborne (Fecal matter is en route to fan! Contact is imminent!)
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To: pollyannaish
If this administration didn't have the cover of those resolutions, we would be in worse shape PR wise, imo.

Which is worse for PR, fighting a war with an entirely legal pretext and finding the WMD, or going "through channels" asking for redundant permission that only legitimizes the most corrupt governance on earth while your principal justification disappears?

I'll take my answer on the air. ;-)

26 posted on 08/13/2006 6:00:12 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The fourth estate is the fifth column.)
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To: section9

Somewhere in that cease-fire is the stipulation that the Lebanese border (disputed by Hezbo) be honored. In addition, Hezbo has to recognize Israel's right to exist, either explicitly or implicitly. And, they have to hand over all of their arms and accept control by Lebanese and UN forces.

None of that is acceptablet to Hezbolah. They can't accept that agreement, as it would go against their charter. Iran can't afford to accept it, and Syria can't accept it, as both would lose their status as hell-raising anti-Israel hardliners. Should Hezbo accept this, expect coups in Syria, Iran, and splinter Hezbo groups in Lebanon.


27 posted on 08/13/2006 6:01:06 PM PDT by TWohlford
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To: hoosiermama

It depends upon who wants enhanced power and strength in Lebanon. At the present there are two Hezbollah members in the Government (I think.) Their presence is essentially backed by their thugs in Southern Lebanon. If Hezbollah is destroyed, it would enhance the power of those in the Government who are NOT Hezbollah, and that would actually help their current Prime Minister. I am not saying that the present Government officials do not back Hezbollah, but losers are quickly forgotten, and the more Hezbollah weakens, the more quickly they will be forgotten, IMO.


28 posted on 08/13/2006 6:01:15 PM PDT by Enterprise (Let's not enforce laws that are already on the books, let's just write new laws we won't enforce.)
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To: section9

bttt


29 posted on 08/13/2006 6:02:16 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand; but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: goldstategop
"but I have no idea why Israel would want to save Hezbollah! "

If I thought there was a material difference between what Israel has already done to Hezbullah and completely wiping them out in Lebanon, I'd agree with you.

But the difference is like picking 7 leaves off a kudzu vine verses 9. Those last two leaves are not going to stop Hezbullah from coming back.

But digging out a kudzu root is long tough work, so sometimes you just clear the fence for the moment and you pick your time to go after the root.

30 posted on 08/13/2006 6:05:44 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: DannyTN

I didn't see any evidence of a cease fire. The Israelis said they would defend themselves against attack. The terrorists said they would not stop until the last Israeli left.

Good for Israel, by the way. They should clobber the terrorists and keep fighting them until hardly a martyr is left.


31 posted on 08/13/2006 6:05:55 PM PDT by sine_nomine (President Bush: Build that wall.)
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To: Enterprise
I think he rest of the Lebanese factions are slowly being manouvered into having to take on Hezbollah. With cover from the 'cease fire' resolution, the Isrealis can continue to pound Hezbollah and we acn arm the Christian, Sunni and Druze factions to finish of Nasrallah.

With a modicum of luck, Nasrallah will be dead or hiding in Teheran within six months, assuming that city still exists.

32 posted on 08/13/2006 6:07:32 PM PDT by pierrem15
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To: DannyTN
One way this could play out, is to pull the UN into a war with Hezbullah, Syria and Iran when Hezbullah attacks the multinational force. Assuming, against the odds, that a cease fire holds for more than 20 minutes, or that any nations actually volunteer to place their people as targets in South Lebanon.

Please tell us the last time the UN put together an effective multinational military operation by which to fight an Islamic entity of any kind.

That's the first question. Here's the corollary:

Given that the UN fancies itself a legitimate global government... Given that it is outrageously corrupt, hideously expensive, impossibly beaureaucratic, invariably inept, and structurally unaccountable...

Do we really want the UN to have a capable military?

33 posted on 08/13/2006 6:09:25 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The fourth estate is the fifth column.)
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To: Cobra64

UN has no forces, as such, isn't that so?

They have to be donated by various countries. I read that besides France, Italy and Turkey had agreed to donate troops. Maybe others?? I'm sure they have some kind of arms and equipment, although logistical help might be offered by the U.S.

The worst sticking points would be mission, rules of engagement and the role of the so-called Lebanese Army. Their PM was demanding that they take the lead role and the UN forces a much lesser role than what I heard was originally envisioned.

The latest, as this points out, though, is that Lebanon is stalling its part due to Nasrallah not going along.


34 posted on 08/13/2006 6:09:56 PM PDT by txrangerette ("We are fighting al-Qaeda, NOT Aunt Sadie"...Dick Cheney commenting on the wiretaps!!)
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To: section9
If Lebanon refuses to implement the UN resolution 1701 then the UN will have no choice but to take drastic action and, and, and,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,pass another resolution!
35 posted on 08/13/2006 6:13:21 PM PDT by tobyhill (The War on Terrorism is not for the weak.)
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To: Carry_Okie
Hmmm. I'm not sure that question can be answered because we do not know for sure that the WMD would have been there (or to be honest are not still there) if we had gone in without legal cover. In fact, I think the original mistake was not taking out Saddam during the first Bush administration and I felt that way at the time.

That said, I honestly believe that while WMD acquisition was certainly one of the reasons given for our invasion, the broader reason was simply to take out the politically weakest leader in the region in order to gain long term on the ground strategic advantage in the heart of "terrorland."

This is an administration that is trying a new method of "peacemaking." Rather than the strong arm marathon negotiations favored by his predecessor, the President is looking to modernize and reshape the ME.

That is a pretty clear goal, although, perhaps a recklessly ambitious one. We will not know for many years. All I know is the last person who was "recklessly ambitious" called for a certain wall to come down and it did. Amazingly enough.

Therefore, I believe that calculations were made for short term pain in lieu of long term gain. What we see through the narrow eye of the media, and what is really happening may be very different. My fondest hope is that UN will be entirely discredited in this debacle. But that is probably too much to hope for, and they will muddle away being useful idiots for the foreseeable future.

BTW, I have complimentary tinfoil available from our screener if you stay on the line. Thanks for the call.

Ok, our next caller..... (Wanders off to weird Krameresque Michael Douglas set) ; )

36 posted on 08/13/2006 6:16:35 PM PDT by pollyannaish
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To: txrangerette

It's ok if Israelis have a controversy over whether to continue to fight or have a cease fire, and it's also fine for us to debate what Israel's best course of action is.

But when American freepers start comparing Israel to the French, then I'm ready to ship some freepers to the front line and see if they still want to call Israel cowards.


37 posted on 08/13/2006 6:16:58 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: sine_nomine

There may not be a cease fire. But if there isn't, it makes Hezbullah look bad, because they are the ones that reneged.


38 posted on 08/13/2006 6:20:01 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Carry_Okie
While we were busy with the UN, Saddam and the Rusians were squirreling WMD in Syria.

How long do you think it would take to "squirrel" biological and chemical WMD into Syria?

My guess is very little time.

UN resolutions or no UN resolutions, Saddam would have moved his biological WMD.

39 posted on 08/13/2006 6:21:09 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: Carry_Okie

Granted an effective UN anything would be a first. And no, I don't want to see the UN have an effective military capability. But I don't want the UN shaping world and domestic opinion against the war either. So lets put the UN on the front line and when they prove ineffective, then we tell them to leave in disgrace for failing to handle the situation.


40 posted on 08/13/2006 6:22:35 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: pollyannaish
I'm not sure that question can be answered because we do not know for sure that the WMD would have been there (or to be honest are not still there) if we had gone in without legal cover.

We HAD legal cover: the UN resolution under which GWI was settled and others. We didn't need another. Second, we had UNSCOM's talley of the WMDs and no record that they were destroyed. Third, there is ample evidence from documents translated and posted here on FR that materials were moved to Syria and Russia.

All we got out of that UN butt covering was a severe pain in the a$$.

41 posted on 08/13/2006 6:25:05 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The fourth estate is the fifth column.)
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Comment #42 Removed by Moderator

To: pierrem15
I think that Hezbollah is generally as welcome in Lebanon as was the Taliban in Afghanistan. No one likes their country to be at war, but the people in Afghanistan are glad the Taliban has been largely neutralized, and I deeply believe that most people in Lebanon strongly wish for Hezbollah to be neutralized.

Nasrallah obviously knows that his own fate is linked to what happens to Hezbollah. But from here on out, each fighter that is killed weakens him also. A cease fire, a total cease fire with the disarming of Hezbollah, is his best hope to survive as a leader, and to eventually reconstitute them as a fighting force. Of course, this would not exactly please Tehran or Damascus, but he has to choose soon. He knows his time is running out.

43 posted on 08/13/2006 6:26:42 PM PDT by Enterprise (Let's not enforce laws that are already on the books, let's just write new laws we won't enforce.)
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To: Carry_Okie
Given that the UN fancies itself a legitimate global government... Given that it is outrageously corrupt, hideously expensive, impossibly beaureaucratic, invariably inept, and structurally unaccountable... Do we really want the UN to have a capable military?

Yes, given that the UN is "impossibly bureaucratic" and "inept", we shouldn't have to worry about the UN having a capable military.

44 posted on 08/13/2006 6:26:53 PM PDT by FreeReign
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Comment #45 Removed by Moderator

To: DannyTN
So lets put the UN on the front line and when they prove ineffective, then we tell them to leave in disgrace for failing to handle the situation.

Korea.
Vietnam
Bosnia
Somalia
Rwanda...

There are STILL UN troops in southern Lebanon, still drinking coffee on the beach, and still in the way of crushing Hezbollah. UN troops carry Hamas thugs in ambulances in Gaza. They've been busted transporting arms to Hamas.

How many UNprecedents, how many dead people on our side, is it going to take before you drop your fear of a mess media that's going to bash conservatives no matter what they do?

46 posted on 08/13/2006 6:30:27 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The fourth estate is the fifth column.)
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To: FreeReign
My guess is very little time.

It doesn't take long to strafe a convoy either.

47 posted on 08/13/2006 6:31:25 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The fourth estate is the fifth column.)
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To: Carry_Okie
I'm familiar with the notion that the Russians aided Sadam's thugs with moving the WMD materials to Syria but the thought that you pose, Syrian control of the Lebanese ports, and that these WMDs could now be anywhere in the world is surely freightening. I think that the reason Pres. Bush will not state that the WMD and were were removed from Iraq to Elsewhere is because he does not want to acknolewedge that they are still out there, and out of our control.

He does this for 2 reasons: first, to rope-a-dope the terrorists into thinking there are no WMDs, second to allay our fears of their existance and threat that they pose.

48 posted on 08/13/2006 6:34:24 PM PDT by Whitebread
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To: Carry_Okie; jveritas
You are right about technical legal cover. And you are right about materials (jveritas be praised). And you are right about the UN being a severe pain in ass.

The administration made a calculation that it would help them, then in hindsight its become clear they might as well have gone for it. But again, all of that is in hindsight and it's just too easy to identify where things went wrong. Out of curiosity (and you don't have to answer if you need to go) did you believe that way at the time? Or is your current position a response to that experience?
49 posted on 08/13/2006 6:34:54 PM PDT by pollyannaish
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To: Carry_Okie
Watch them blow up their own people in order to fake an Israeli attack.

I fully expect to wake up tomorrow, flip on the TV, and still see the network 'danger boys' still wearing helmets and flak jackets with boom-booms in the background.

50 posted on 08/13/2006 6:36:37 PM PDT by ErnBatavia (Meep Meep)
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