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Rice calls Lebanese PM to warn him that if the UN Lebanon resolution is not implemented...
The DEBKA File ^ | August 13, 2006

Posted on 08/13/2006 5:41:09 PM PDT by section9

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To: pollyannaish
I'm not sure that question can be answered because we do not know for sure that the WMD would have been there (or to be honest are not still there) if we had gone in without legal cover.

We HAD legal cover: the UN resolution under which GWI was settled and others. We didn't need another. Second, we had UNSCOM's talley of the WMDs and no record that they were destroyed. Third, there is ample evidence from documents translated and posted here on FR that materials were moved to Syria and Russia.

All we got out of that UN butt covering was a severe pain in the a$$.

41 posted on 08/13/2006 6:25:05 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The fourth estate is the fifth column.)
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Comment #42 Removed by Moderator

To: pierrem15
I think that Hezbollah is generally as welcome in Lebanon as was the Taliban in Afghanistan. No one likes their country to be at war, but the people in Afghanistan are glad the Taliban has been largely neutralized, and I deeply believe that most people in Lebanon strongly wish for Hezbollah to be neutralized.

Nasrallah obviously knows that his own fate is linked to what happens to Hezbollah. But from here on out, each fighter that is killed weakens him also. A cease fire, a total cease fire with the disarming of Hezbollah, is his best hope to survive as a leader, and to eventually reconstitute them as a fighting force. Of course, this would not exactly please Tehran or Damascus, but he has to choose soon. He knows his time is running out.

43 posted on 08/13/2006 6:26:42 PM PDT by Enterprise (Let's not enforce laws that are already on the books, let's just write new laws we won't enforce.)
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To: Carry_Okie
Given that the UN fancies itself a legitimate global government... Given that it is outrageously corrupt, hideously expensive, impossibly beaureaucratic, invariably inept, and structurally unaccountable... Do we really want the UN to have a capable military?

Yes, given that the UN is "impossibly bureaucratic" and "inept", we shouldn't have to worry about the UN having a capable military.

44 posted on 08/13/2006 6:26:53 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: DannyTN
So lets put the UN on the front line and when they prove ineffective, then we tell them to leave in disgrace for failing to handle the situation.

Korea.
Vietnam
Bosnia
Somalia
Rwanda...

There are STILL UN troops in southern Lebanon, still drinking coffee on the beach, and still in the way of crushing Hezbollah. UN troops carry Hamas thugs in ambulances in Gaza. They've been busted transporting arms to Hamas.

How many UNprecedents, how many dead people on our side, is it going to take before you drop your fear of a mess media that's going to bash conservatives no matter what they do?

46 posted on 08/13/2006 6:30:27 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The fourth estate is the fifth column.)
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To: FreeReign
My guess is very little time.

It doesn't take long to strafe a convoy either.

47 posted on 08/13/2006 6:31:25 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The fourth estate is the fifth column.)
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To: Carry_Okie
I'm familiar with the notion that the Russians aided Sadam's thugs with moving the WMD materials to Syria but the thought that you pose, Syrian control of the Lebanese ports, and that these WMDs could now be anywhere in the world is surely freightening. I think that the reason Pres. Bush will not state that the WMD and were were removed from Iraq to Elsewhere is because he does not want to acknolewedge that they are still out there, and out of our control.

He does this for 2 reasons: first, to rope-a-dope the terrorists into thinking there are no WMDs, second to allay our fears of their existance and threat that they pose.

48 posted on 08/13/2006 6:34:24 PM PDT by Whitebread
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To: Carry_Okie; jveritas
You are right about technical legal cover. And you are right about materials (jveritas be praised). And you are right about the UN being a severe pain in ass.

The administration made a calculation that it would help them, then in hindsight its become clear they might as well have gone for it. But again, all of that is in hindsight and it's just too easy to identify where things went wrong. Out of curiosity (and you don't have to answer if you need to go) did you believe that way at the time? Or is your current position a response to that experience?
49 posted on 08/13/2006 6:34:54 PM PDT by pollyannaish
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To: Carry_Okie
Watch them blow up their own people in order to fake an Israeli attack.

I fully expect to wake up tomorrow, flip on the TV, and still see the network 'danger boys' still wearing helmets and flak jackets with boom-booms in the background.

50 posted on 08/13/2006 6:36:37 PM PDT by ErnBatavia (Meep Meep)
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To: section9
I can't believe that Nasrallah would be this stupid.

I can't believe Condi would be this stupid.
Her message should have been "if the UN Lebanon resolution is not implemented,"


"We will be responsible for the consequences."

51 posted on 08/13/2006 6:53:42 PM PDT by MrEdd (More cheep than a flock of baby chickens.)
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To: ItisaReligionofPeace
Most of the people here are like the people who call in to talk football on sports talk radio; they never played a day of football in their lives.

'ItisaReligionofPeace' has my vote for resident expert on everything. Hell, he played high school ball so he should know what he's talking about. Even though these arm chair commandos annoy him, he still delivers commentary and opinion to help enlighten others.
52 posted on 08/13/2006 6:55:02 PM PDT by dmartin (Who Dares Wins)
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To: pollyannaish
Here is my take on the situation in Lebanon.

There has been no news on where in southern Lebanon the 30,000 Israeli ground troops are deployed. I think the following deployment is likely. They are likely deployed in an box like formation About a quarter of the troops are deployed along the Mediterranean Sea; About a quarter along the south side of the the river that runs across the northern part of Southern Lebanon; About a quarter are places along the Syrian border; and about a quarter are placed along the Israeli border. There are no Israeli troops in the interior of the box.

This force deployment has several advantages all means of escape and resupply to the Hezbollah in southern Lebanon are blocked. If a large portion of Hezbollah are trapped in this box they must sooner or later attack to get food or starve to death.

It is one thing to be a defensive force. Hezbollah has trained extensively on defensive strategies. They can hide in holes and tunnels and come out to kill Israeli Troops. They can fire rockets and missiles. But they have not the force size or the weapons to conduct an offensive war.

The situation is reversed. It is Hezbollah who must attack and they have little or no skills in this area. The IDF gets to play defense. But the IDF has 30,000 troops. And it takes 3 times as many troops to attack as it does to defend. But Hezbollah has 1/24 the number of troops to make a successful attacking force.

Sooner or later Hezbollah will get so hungry they must either surrender or attack. Their supplies of ammunition will be limited. The routes of resupply are closed. They have to go through a huge Israeli force to get supplies... They must attack with out enough forces or the right kind of weapons to successfully attack.

There is no way to resupply. Not from the north.. there are Israeli troops. Not from the south, the east or west. They are surrounded.

If I am right, the Members of the potential UN peace keeping force will keep saying to each other.... you first .. no you first ... for a month or two. The Lebanese army will just sits on its rump waiting to hold a meeting. While that is going on Israel can kill and disarm a huge amount of Hezbollah. All of it in southern Lebanon.

The most likely strategy for Hezbollah would be to try to attack from the north across the river. To make a whole from which at least some of their forces could escape. But that is not likely to result in anthing except more Hezbollah deaths.

I would expect that Israel will not allow any reporters inside this box. And I suspect that few if any reporters get too far from from the capital of Lebanon. It may be a while before we know exactly what is taking place. But getting supplies from Syria... is only useful if Hezbollah choses to attack.

It the next few days may not be as disasterous as we might have thought at first glance.

53 posted on 08/13/2006 6:56:09 PM PDT by Common Tator
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To: Carry_Okie
Having the moral highground is a very important psychological part of the war. The mass media couldn't shake support for the war in Afghanistan and has had a heck of a time shaking the support for the war in Iran, but it's because the proper foundation was laid first.

Like it or not the mass media does play a role for the worse and to completely discount the media instead of working to minimize the media's negative effect is foolhardy. It's an important part of the war.

And I don't remember the UN placing peacekeepers in Korea or Vietnam, so I don't know why they are in your list.

It's not dead on our side that's really being discussed here, because we've already said we wouldn't be part of a multi-national force. It's dead on Israel's side. And my point is that Israel has the right to choose war or cease fire.

Nobody other than another Israeli has the right to call them cowards, because they've proven themselves courageous time and time again.

54 posted on 08/13/2006 7:01:25 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Enterprise
A disarmed or destroyed Hezbollah removes a powerful proxy from Teheran's arsenal.

I assume that I am not mistaking a complete Bush admin cluster---- for Machiavellian brilliance, in which case this is stage I and Syria will be stage II. Being stripped of the Hezbollah ally will cost the Syrians a lot both economically and militarily. A little intimidation (and a lot of Saudi cash) might make them reconsider their allegiances.

That would leave Iran completely isolated by winter (campaign season in the Middle East) and Bush with 2 years left in office.

If stage I is successful, look for the Iranians to try to start some major problems with the Shiite militias in Iraq: it appears to be already happening in Basra where Iraqi Army officers and civil administration figures appear to be getting assassinated and British troops attacked by Iranian backed groups.

55 posted on 08/13/2006 7:04:02 PM PDT by pierrem15
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To: Common Tator

Thanks. Your scenario sounds smart, likely and reasonable. I just can't shake the sense that there is always much going on beneath the diplomacy. What we see is merely window dressing.

I have to say that it amuses me to no end that people think the President and his team don't "really understand" the nature of "fascist Islam."


56 posted on 08/13/2006 7:06:18 PM PDT by pollyannaish
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To: Harley69
A one eyed monkey with a brain tumor knows that the brave soldiers of Israel are known to be the best in the world.

A great turn of phrase, If you don't mind I would like to borrow that "one eyed monkey with a brain tumor" remark for a discussion in the future about dimwit politicians:). I agree on the bravery of Israeli troops.

57 posted on 08/13/2006 7:18:23 PM PDT by calex59 (The '86 amnesty put us in the toilet, now the senate wants to flush it!)
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To: Common Tator
But that is not likely to result in anything except more Hezbollah deaths

Sounds good! .....
One thing I'd like to add to your scenario.....Occasionally when Hexbolla troops get low in numbers allow a few more in so they can receive the same treatment as those they are replacing.

58 posted on 08/13/2006 7:33:40 PM PDT by hoosiermama
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To: pollyannaish
I just can't shake the sense that there is always much going on beneath the diplomacy.

It has been a long time.. back in the Ford Administration, but there was a time when I did have access to the inside track. I can assure you there is a ton of things going on under the surface.

If you want to know what is going on ... ask your self what is the media not telling me and why. Note the media was telling us everywhere the Israeli forces were deployed Now they are not... Why?

Why are there not a lot more Israely causualties. If 10,000 troops had x number of causualties... then why isn't 30,000 troops suffering 3 times x. But they are not ... WHY?

You can see how things can be deduced from what you KNOW.. and what you are NOT TOLD.

59 posted on 08/13/2006 7:34:12 PM PDT by Common Tator
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To: DannyTN
i have yet to see a Freeper call the IDF cowards. i have seen many call Olmert a coward. i wouldn't go so far since he is seeing much more of the scene than FR folks like us are, but, it does look like Olmert and Halutz blew the game with a very weak, clintonesque (think Bosnia) IAF opening more.
60 posted on 08/13/2006 7:38:05 PM PDT by chilepepper (The map is not the territory -- Alfred Korzybski)
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