Posted on 08/16/2006 4:05:01 PM PDT by new yorker 77
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has recommended that Nevada and South Carolina join Iowa and New Hampshire in holding presidential nominating contests in January 2008. This ill-conceived recommendation demonstrates that the Democratic Party has not yet learned the painful lessons of 2004.
Early in the 2004 presidential election cycle, Democrats in Michigan and the District of Columbia challenged the first-in-the-nation status of Iowa and New Hampshire, arguing that those two unrepresentative states had undue power in choosing the party’s presidential nominee. Both threatened to move their contests to January, in violation of national party rules.
Michigan and D.C. backed off only after then-DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe agreed to create a commission to reform the process. That commission’s report led to the DNC’s recommending the advancement of Nevada and South Carolina for 2008.
Ever since John Kerry’s defeat in November 2004, scholars sympathetic to the Democratic Party have been trying to figure out why Republicans seem to be better at picking winning presidential candidates. A serious Democratic reform effort would have sought a system that would lead the party to nominate the best possible candidate. It also would have come up with a plan that could be implemented easily.
Instead, Democratic Party leaders used the commission as a vehicle to assuage their most vocal internal critics. The commission’s purpose was not to create a better presidential nomination process; it was an exercise in coalition management.
It should come as no surprise, therefore, that the DNC recommendation exacerbates the most glaring flaw in the presidential nomination process, the front-loading of the primary calendar. This phenomenon has tilted the playing field dramatically in favor of establishment candidates who can raise the most money and who have the highest early name recognition.
If no such candidate exists, the party risks choosing an untested nominee too quickly, before he has been thoroughly scrutinized. By moving two more state contests into January, the Democrats have only worsened this problem, increasing the likelihood that they will hastily choose a presidential nominee they will later regret.
Because of the decentralized nature of the presidential nomination process, any successful reform effort must meet two basic criteria. The reforms must be acceptable to the vast majority of state parties, and they must be developed through a bipartisan process.
The Democrats ignored both of those necessities. Consequently, executing their recommendation will be extremely painful.
The implementation problem stems from the fact that states decide when to schedule their presidential nomination contests.
New Hampshire is already threatening to undermine the plan and preserve its first-in-the-nation primary by leapfrogging ahead of Nevada. Would the Democratic Party really refuse to recognize the New Hampshire convention delegation? Such a move would alienate the only state whose electoral votes went to Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. Failing to punish New Hampshire, however, would be an insult to Nevada and its large Hispanic population, which was an important factor in its selection.
Whichever decision the DNC makes, its potential nominees will be thrust into the center of a turf battle in which they are guaranteed to alienate an important general election constituency. That is not a very good way to start a run for the White House.
Another major problem with the DNC recommendation is that it was not developed on a bipartisan basis. Republicans hold the governor’s mansion and a majority of the state Senate in Nevada. They also control a unified government in South Carolina. Why would Republican elected officials in those two states want to help Democrats by rescheduling their primaries?
In 2004, Howard Dean’s front-running presidential campaign began to self-destruct about a month before the Iowa caucuses, narrowly saving the Democratic Party from a disastrous drubbing in November. Such an experience should have taught Democratic leaders a lesson about the dangers of a front-loaded nomination process. The latest DNC recommendation suggests that Democrats are not yet serious about winning presidential elections.
Butler is assistant professor of political science at Rowan University and author of the book Claiming the Mantle: How Presidential Nominations Are Won and Lost Before the Votes Are Cast. Dick Morris will return in September.
The Dims are already pulling in the vast majority of minority votes, so skewing early primaries further in that direction is only going to make them even less likely to succeed in the actual election.
So, I say this is a great idea!
Ah, the Democrat circular firing squad. Fun for the whole family!
the idea being pushed at the DU is Feingold/Murtha '08..that's an even better idea..:)
"DNC doesn’t know how to choose presidential nominees"
Erm, first you have to have presidential material to work with in your party.
The staggered primary schedule was a great idea when news was not instantaneous.
Today, a schedule that either regionalizes the primaries or creates groupings of states that take turns going first would be the best idea.
Oh, wait, they're too elitist to listen. Nevermind.
President Anyone?
The GOP is feeling good,
The future’s looking clear,
They’re not so sure at the DNC
As 2008 draws near.
There’s lots of heavy breathing.
Edwards gets a new “do.”
Kerry’s itching to try again,
And Clark is mewing “me too.”
Dr. Dean is peddling hate,
Daschle has built up his shoes;
Gore is nervously waiting to see
Which way Hillary moves.
Sharpton wants another
Playful grab at the Ring.
And Nader is stealthily crouching
To spring again at the Green.
Anything is possible of course
As far as politics go,
But the chance of this gang winning
Is stuck between zero and no.
When Demos said “Cut and Run” in Iraq,
They were skating on very thin ice.
Now they’re beginning to self-destruct,
Like an Improvised Explosive Device.
There's a leap.
Where do I help nominate this ticket?
As fed up as I can get with the GOP, this is the one thing that will probably save them this year and in '08. If the Dimmos want to keep fronting these loons, let 'em knock themselves out. Nobody said you had to have brains to join their club.
But their record in that vein is disastrous. She's banging her head against the wall.
She goofed. She should have run as VP with Kerry. The Dems would have won that race.
But she's a greedy monster...and God is good.
anybody with any common sense is just not going to buy what the dems are peddeling. its amasing that they just dont get it.Last gasp of the 60s hippies i hope.
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