AMLO Update: Tactical shift emerges from PRD camp

Mexico News ( The Herald Mexico ) ^ | Auugust 17, 2006 | Kelly Arthur Garrett

[StJacques]

Andrés Manuel López Obrador´s call for an ongoing "convention" of supporters to act as an extra-governmental political force underscores a tactical shift that has already changed the tone of the post-electoral dispute and also could define how Mexico is governed over the next six years.

The proposed National Democratic Convention (CND), set to meet for the first time in Mexico City´s Zócalo on Sept. 16, seems designed to convert the current López Obrador-led civil resistance movement into a permanent political movement functioning outside the confines of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD). It also promises to be a permanent thorn in Felipe Calderón´s side should the Electoral Tribunal name the National Action Party (PAN) candidate as the president-elect sometime before Sept. 6.

"This is an initiative to organize the peaceful civil resistance and demand respect for the popular will," López Obrador said Wednesday night, reading from a document drafted to convene the convention. "The fundamental proposal of the National Democratic Convention is for representatives from every pueblo in the country to decide the role we will assume in Mexico´s public life under present conditions."

Though a membership of thousands is planned, the CND will start with an organizing committee made up of a handful of prominent López Obrador supporters, including actress Jesusa Rodríguez, writer Elena Poniatowska, and political figures such as José Agustín Ortiz Pinchetti and Dante Delgado.

The new move comes at a time of intensifying rhetoric and actions from both sides of the post-electoral struggle in which López Obrador has challenged the uncertified vote count that puts Calderón ahead in the July 2 presidential voting by 0.58 percent. Alleging fraudulent counting and ballot manipulation, López Obrador has demanded a full recount, which Calderón has refused to endorse and the Electoral Tribunal has yet to order, with time running out.

PRD national spokesperson Gerardo Fernández Noroña said Wednesday the protest organizers were considering taking their actions up a notch from civil resistance to "civil disobedience." Unlike civil resistance actions, such as the current encampments along Paseo de la Reforma and two other Mexico City streets, civil disobedience could include illegal acts, such as not paying taxes. In any case, Fernández emphasized, the protests will remain peaceful.

The PAN federal government, meanwhile, has flexed its muscles recently, on Monday dispersing less than 100 protesters outside the Legislative Palace with hundreds of federal police agents. PRD lawmakers were beaten and injured in the action.

On Wednesday, the federal presence was still heavy around the building, with federal police officers, metal barricades, and Army personnel with armored vehicles capable of launching tear gas and high-pressure water streams.

Mexico City police chief Joel Ortega, who on Tuesday criticized the federal crackdown on the PRD protesters, said Wednesday that the ongoing Army presence was out of proportion to the situation. "They need to be careful that this doesn´t generate a spiral of violence that later can´t be controlled," Ortega said, referring to the use of the armored vehicles.

The Calderón camp reiterated its support for the crackdown on Wednesday. César Nava, a PAN assistant secretary general who has served as the party´s chief spokesperson since the July 2 election, called the PRD protest at the Congress building "an attempted assault" and the federal crackdown "fully justified."

López Obrador´s increasing emphasis on civil resistance, along with the convening of a permanent convention, has been widely interpreted as a strategy shift away from pressuring the tribunal to reverse election results to re-organizing his movement to weaken a future Calderón government.

"He practically takes for granted that Felipe Calderón will be confirmed as president," wrote political analyst Alberto Aziz Nassif in EL UNIVERSAL on Tuesday. "That´s why he´s established this bridge to the next phase."

As he announced the formation of the CND, López Obrador said almost as much. "Consummating this electoral fraud by imposing the candidate of the right as president would trample the will of the people as it was expressed at the polls on July 2, and violate the Constitution right in front of everybody´s eyes," he said.

[StJacques]

I'm not going to be doing any translating today since my boss, GeronL, has given me the day off. :-)

I've looked over the Mexican web sites today and I do not see anything of pressing significance however. Fox is speaking in a very conciliatory manner about the action this past Monday to clear the legislative grounds at the national congress, he is calling for dialogue, and doing his best to reassure everyone that the country is not heading for violent confrontation. At the same time he has ordered armored vehicles to the legislative grounds, all of the streets approaching the grounds have been sectioned off with metal barricades, and he has over 800 Federal Preventive Police on-site, rotating out on a regular basis.

On the recount; no word from the Electoral Tribunal, though there is an article up on El Universal in which a Mexican legal expert says we can expect to see things start happening "possibly in the first days of the week."

And I linked this article because it gives a pretty good overview of everything, though it seems to suggest a much calmer appraisal of things than the tone I see expressed in the Spanish articles on the same site, and especially when prominent political actors are quoted. This article seems to suggest this entire "National Democratic Convention" is going to be a "monitoring" effort on the part of AMLO and the PRD. That is not the tone taken in the discussion revealed in the Spanish language web sites in Mexico, nor is it what I read in AMLO's own words. So, consider yourselves warned, I see some "MSM Spin" in this particular article, it's a Miami Herald subsidiary, so keep that in mind.

[StJacques]

A Mex-Elex ping for you all.

[GeronL]

Sort of like a Shadow Government but more ominous. Thanks for the update just before I go offline.

[GeronL]

Makes me hope the PRI can knock them down a few pegs in popular support by stealing the supporters who think AMLO is nuts

[StJacques]

"Sort of like a Shadow Government but more ominous. . . ."

GeronL, that is exactly the way I look at it. AMLO will have the makings of an "institution" he will claim is the legitimate government of Mexico. It's much more dangerous that the article suggests.

  

[rovenstinez]

Today 125 Mayors took the oath of office in the State of Mexico from the 3 major political parties without any incident. It was civic, exhibited tolerance, and outsiders would tip their hats to the ease and honor that was evident. At our swearing in ceremony mention was made about 'candidates' who don't accept the electoral results of an honest election. Elections to watch in Chiapas Sunday.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Notice how PRD founder Cuauhtemoc Cardenas isn't exactly doing much to help ObraGore? Hmmm...

[Shuttle Shucker]

Meanwhile, the GOP is understandably cracking down on Mexico's years of underachievement by saying "no mas" (especially in light of how Mexico's immigration laws are so racist against us gringos: http://www.directory.com.mx/immigration ). It's admirable how the House GOPers are dealing with the lashings as resiliently as they are:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/metro/4124661.html

Excerpt: "The Republican committee members, who sat in the majority Thursday, were greeted by a vocally hostile audience of about 200 onlookers. Sensenbrenner warned the audience several times that they were not to audibly respond to any comments or testimony. Outside the hearing, which was not open for public comment, about 100 protesters chanted and waived signs telling Sensenbrenner he was not welcome. Some protesters, carrying caricatures of Sensenbrenner as a member of the Ku Klux Klan, decried him as a racist. After the hearing, Sensenbrenner defended H.R. 4437, his controversial House immigration bill passed last year, and countered accusations he was being racist. "When you can't argue the merits, you call names," he said. "I authored the voting rights extension bill ... signed by President Bush. Racists don't do that." Rep. Sheila Jackson-Lee, a Houston Democrat and the ranking minority member on the Subcommittee on Immigration, called the series of Republican-led hearings a "traveling road show."

[StJacques]

"Notice how PRD founder Cuauhtemoc Cardenas isn't exactly doing much to help ObraGore? Hmmm..."

Do you remember that editorial by Ezra Shabot I translated a couple of weeks back, "Madness"? He pointed out how AMLO had pushed Cardenas and his supporters aside:

". . . All of Andres Manuel's management at the head of the Federal District was guided by the logic of his presidential candidacy. The criticism of Fox, the construction of the Segundo Piso of the outlying freeway together with a good dose of corruption on the part of the builders, his defense in the face of the video scandals, the support for art dealers converted into beneficiaries of the capitol budget, and the scorn for the law in his personal immunity from prosecution case, each and every one of these events had in AMLO's mind one single objective: the Presidency of the Republic. Little by little, he was moving on the spaces within his party, converting the subject of the videoscandals into an instrument fit to ruin his Cardenista opponents, especially Rosario Robles. . . ."

And there is also the attitude of Cuauhtemoc Cardenas's son Lazaro Cardenas Batel, who is Governor of Michoacan, and who has been openly critical of AMLO's scorn for those Mexican institutions, such as the IFE and the Tribunal, empowered to handle the electoral process.

Some prognosticators are arguing that Cardenas Batel wants to be the PRD candidate six years from now. I wouldn't be surprised to see him step forth in a week or two to tell AMLO to sit down.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Hi Saint:
Regarding:

>>>Some prognosticators are arguing that Cardenas Batel wants to be the PRD candidate six years from now. I wouldn't be surprised to see him step forth in a week or two to tell AMLO to sit down.<<<

Wow! No wonder ObraGore isn't fit to wait another 6 years. By then he'll be a distant memory and he'll be less able to cash in on corruption-related favors "earned" while governor of Mexico City.

[SAJ]

Nicely said, Shucker...and spot effing on, too. Like you're reading ObraGore's mind (...cue spooky music...).

;^)

[Shuttle Shucker]

Hi SAJ: Glad to see you're still out & about. Is it safe to say ObraGore's a flatliner in betting circles now?

[SAJ]

Oh, yah. However, the contract will be settled when it's settled. Haven't looked, but I assume 6 September is the settlement date, insofar as it's the statutory date (if I'm not mistaken -- always a possibility) by which the Mexican election governors must declare a new President.

Exited my long Pesos position way too early; left upwards of $1100 per contract on the table. Still, a good solid winner though. (mutters at self...)

[StJacques]

Well Shuttle Shucker, how prescient you were to ask why we haven't heard from Cuauhtemoc Cardenas recently.

Because he has now spoken up:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/369483.html

Excerpt from article entitled "I'm fond of turning to the law to resolve electoral conflict":

"Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, considered the moral leader of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), said that the conflict which the country is experiencing after the presidential election has to be resolved "with strict fondness for the law and fundamental thinking in the interest of the country." He said this applies to all Mexicans to contribute so that the country develops itself in a climate of fruitful togetherness.

"I hope that we may have an electoral result, when the tribunal states its final decision, which is accepted, which gives us the certainty of taking what the election gave. I hope that if there is a recourse to some means, such as the counting of votes, that we turn to it if it is what gives us certainty," he said."

And then there is this quote a little later on:

"What affects the interests of those not directly participating in these activities worries me because of this, in some form it prejudices or deteriorates the current presence of the Party of the Democratic Revolution in many sectors of society." He declared that he will not participate in the Democratic National Convention -- summoned by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador -- to be carried out next September 16 in the Plaza of the Constitution."

I think Cuauhtemoc Cardenas just said that AMLO is destroying a lot of the progress the PRD has made in "many secotrs" of Mexican society and he [Cardenas] is not going to be a part of it.

I guess this was worth waiting for after all.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Well Saint, how insightful of YOU to have pointed out how the PRD already has someone who can carry its banner in the upcoming presidential elections: Lazaro Cardenas Batel.

Still, I've been wondering just what this Cuauhtemoc Cardenas quote means to say:

>>>I hope that if there is a recourse to some means, such as the counting of votes, that we turn to it if it is what gives us certainty," he said."<<<

Is he leaning towards advocating a nationwide recount? Or is he more or less simply saying that whatever TRIFE says regarding the recounts should be embraced by Mexicans? I hope it's the latter.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Reforma.com has this front page photo online now, depicting what's hopefully NOT an isolated example of an abandoned protest tent on Reforma (now that the thugs formerly occupying it realize that they're far less likely to get favors from an eventual President ObraGore in exchange for their actions):

[Shuttle Shucker]

Still more re-tallying and such to do (r/e the state of Colima, at least):

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/369618.html

[StJacques]

"Is he [Cuauhtemoc Cardenas] leaning towards advocating a nationwide recount? Or is he more or less simply saying that whatever TRIFE says regarding the recounts should be embraced by Mexicans?"

I think the key phrase within Cuauhtemoc Cardenas's statement is "if it it is what gives us certainty." I take this to mean very clearly that there are recounts which do give us certainty and recounts which do not give us certainty. According to the Electoral Tribunal's interpretation of Mexico's Electoral Law, a hand recount of ballots is only required whenever the external evidence warrants it. By external evidence they refer to such things as: the comparison between the numbers of voters who signed the roll as casting ballots on election day with the number of votes recorded (is there a significant discrepancy between the two numbers, especially if the number of votes recorded is greater than the number signing the roll?); the possibility that the returns show unusual numbers of "null votes" (whether too high or too low); the existence of complaints made by the party representatives on hand who witnessed the counting of ballots and who only signed the voting report, i.e. the Acta, under protest; the existence of a discrepancy in the reporting of the numbers between the preliminary and official counts; visible recognition of damage to or a lack of clarity in the voting report; a correlation between lower vote totals for a particular candidate within an electoral district and the absence of party representatives for that candidate being on hand to act as witnesses to the counting of the ballots; and the possibility that approved precinct representatives designated to serve at a particular precinct before the election were prevented from doing so for reasons other than of their own inability or choice to serve. I have seen all of these reasons stated as sufficient to justify a hand recount within a precinct, and I imagine there must be others, but what I think Cuauhtemoc Cardenas is pointing out is that, if AMLO and his representatives could not present evidence of this kind for more than 9.07% of the casillas in the country, do they really have a case to make that going any farther clears up uncertainties? After all, Cardenas did distinguish between recounts that do give certainty and recounts which don't AND he said that a "fondness for the law" should be the way to settle the dispute.

I'm just acting on the basis of logic in interpreting his statements because what I really think is going on here is a "soft sell" from Cuauhtemoc Cardenas in front of the public, which accounts for some of the ambiguities you are pointing out, coupled with a "hard sell" behind the scenes, in discussions with PRD activists. And on that point, Cardenas was very clear. He sees the PRD as potentially losing real gains they have made.

So for what it's worth, that is my take.

[StJacques]

A followup to my previous post.

First; there is an article up on the La Crónica de Hoy web site that gives a much more complete recounting of the Cuauhtemoc Cardenas interview.

In the article, Cardenas specifically prefaces his statement about "activities which in some form prejudice or deteriorate the current presence of the Party of the Democratic Revolution in many sectors of society" with his allusion to the Head of Government of the Federal District (Encinas) as "heading" these activities. So he pointedly criticizes Encinas.

And then there is the following exchange in the interview:

Q: Do you believe the actions of Lopez Obrador are putting the stability of Mexico in danger?

A: I believe that the country and the Mexican people are very mature and there is nothing which puts at risk either the stability or governability of the nation.

Q: Are you making any call to the For the Good of All coalition?

A: No. It corresponds with everyone so that we give our effort, our contribution so that the country develops itself in a climate of fruitful coexistence so that we can rise above the problems which the diverse sectors of Mexican society are confronting today.

Later on in the interview Cardenas points out that Lopez Obrador has called his "convention" for a national holiday -- Independence Day -- and deals with the fact that the Mexican armed forces normally get to participate in this celebration, and I'm guessing he means they usually get to participate in the Zocalo capital plaza where AMLO plans to hold his convention.:

In spite of the warnings of the candidate of the For the Good of All coalition of maintaining the blockade in the Zocalo capital plaza, the Paseo de la Reforma, Juarez and Madero Avenues, Cardenas Solorzano was confident that Mexicans "are going to have the national ceremonies they usually have and that the Armed Forces are going to participate in them."

I knew this was a national holiday and that Lopez Obrador was probably trying to "pad his numbers" by scheduling his "convention" for a day when so many would be off work and coming to the capital, but it never occurred to me that he might be disrupting an honored tradition to which the Mexican armed forces look forward to every year. That could be a big mistake. And you will notice that right after the text of the Cardenas interview on the web page there is a short didaction of an article in which AMLO "says he respects the Army." That's not a coincidence I think. And then of course, there is a final snippet in which AMLO once again loses his sanity and says that the effort to defraud him of his election victory is a conspiracy "bigger than Watergate." LOL!

[Shuttle Shucker]

Hi Saint. I hope your weekend's being good to you. Anyhow, it would seem that Cuauhtemoc's hard sell behind the scenes, trying to get PRD folks to back down, is having an impact. There's a whopping 3 digit sum marching to the Basilica de Guadalupe in Mexico City right now:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/369794.html

To put this crowd of 700 into perspective, Mexico has at least 4 or 5 times that many people straddle in to visit the Teotihuacan pyramid dozens of miles North of there on any given publicly accessible day, even though it's not symbolic of a widely accepted religion like the Basilica is.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Regarding: >>>I knew this was a national holiday and that Lopez Obrador was probably trying to "pad his numbers" by scheduling his "convention" for a day when so many would be off work and coming to the capital<<< It reminds me of how fundraising colleges are increasingly scheduling class reunions for when graduation takes place (to hide the lack of clearly adult numbers that would be apparent weeks before), while high schools are scheduling reunions for big football homecoming weekends (instead of during the Spring as we've previously seen). Institutions I've attended at both levels are now doing that, while trying to get more money. As far as AMLO and the military go, hopefully a confrontation can't be staged that could empower AMLO's folks as martyrs (Tlatelolco). Regarding Watergate though, that's tailored for U.S. consumption (even as AMLO built his career out of repelling U.S. influences). After all, I've found that informed Mexicans typically think that the whole Watergate scandal was little more than much adieu about nothing... It would seem that AMLO's presidential candidacy is a flat-liner and I'm kind of baffled as to why someone increased his betting on the guy:

[StJacques]

Yeah, the numbers are clearly falling off.

The whole thing was clearly at a turning point on Tuesday when the PRD and their allies had to sit down and calculate their own response to Monday's desalojo of their protestors from the grounds of the national legislature. AMLO began talking his convention shtick hoping to rile everyone up and, based upon what I have seen since, it appears to me that some of the folks are going home. Even Encinas said yesterday that he expects to see the encampments picked up in a couple of weeks.

We've got to keep our eyes on the actions of the TRIFE this week -- I expect them to announce the results of the recount and complete the first stage of the process wherein they tell everyone the votes -- and we still have to watch what will happen on September 1, and possibly the days leading up to it, when Fox will give his national address. Those are the things to look out for right now, but I am getting the feeling this whole thing is cooling off a bit.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Can we expect much to come from Ahumada's accusations that the feds. made him help produce videos that were unflattering to candidate AMLO? I imagine this isn't proper according to law, but hopefully it won't turn the tables either...(assuming it's even true). Lord knows they did what they could to disgrace PAN candidate Santiago Creel too. Then when Felipe emerged as the victor in the PAN debates, we saw AMLO trash Felipe for his brother in law's business dealings in the only presidential debate in which ObraGore participated (followed by that in-law's suing AMLO, I think I read).

[Shuttle Shucker]

The video scandal's reverberating in Leftist elements of the U.S. press:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4127685.html

[StJacques]

Unless and until someone can come forward to show that either the PRD officials did not take the money and spend it -- and it has already been proven that they did -- or that something different was requested in return for the money than the tapes show, which was favoritism in securing contracts, then all of Lopez Obrador's protestations about the scandal are just so much noise.

I suppose it doesn't make Fox's administration look too good to show that individuals acted privately in this manner in the political interests of their party when they were supposed to be serving all Mexicans while on the job; but they received no financial gain from it, they didn't falsify any of the recordings, and they do have a defensible argument if it comes down to it that they were aware of corruption in and around AMLO and they didn't know any other way to get it out in the open since an official "sting" would likely have been leaked before it was attempted, thus preventing its success.

Frankly; I think the whole affair shows that Fox and his people have the balls to play the game "down and dirty" when push comes to shove. I rather admire them for it and I suspect there are more than a few Mexicans who feel the same way I do.

And remember, there is nothing in any of this that pertains to the counting of votes. That is all that matters right now.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Thanks for that helpful analysis, which suggests that ObraGore WON'T be able to discredit the entire electoral proceedings after understandably failing to secure a nationwide vote-by-vote recount.

BTW, I didn't see further news on the march to the Basilica. His baloon's hot air is rapidly leaving...

[Shuttle Shucker]

A whopping 1,500 (fifteen hundred) prepares to storm the Zocalo today:

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/369919.html

The (habitually sensationalizing media's) report vaguely mentions an additional "march" emerging from elsewhere, with understandably few details. This is quite a change from the nearly million ObraGore used to be able to count on. Perhaps union coffer$ are depleting and leaders are resuming their allegiance with the more moderate PRI.

[Shuttle Shucker]

#27 was intended for you :-0 :-)

[StJacques]

Well I've got a brief update for you all on the progress of the Mexican post-election controversy which essentially is that, "nothing of note has happened over the past couple of days."

For those of you who may want to read about the continuing splits within Lopez Obrador's PRD over the campaign of civil disobedience, and especially the threatened intention of rejecting the eventual decision of the Electoral Tribunal, go up in this thread and begin with my post #14 to Shuttle Shucker from a couple of days ago and continue through our various exchanges to read about the public statements of former PRD presidential candidate and party founder Cuauhtemoc Cardenas that the party should be prepared to accept what the tribunal delivers.

There has been a sideshow going on over the past couple of days regarding the disclosure that a major public scandal surrounding Lopez Obrador of 2003 - 2004, the so-called "videoscandals" in which key AMLO aides were videotaped accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes and later shown gambling in Las Vegas, were in fact orchestrated as a "sting" operation by key members of the Fox administration and the PAN party. Nothing that has been revealed even suggests that the videos were forged however, no; AMLO's aides genuinely took the money in return for the promise of favoritism in awarding contracts, but AMLO and company are raising the roof about how this "proves the conspiracy" to keep AMLO out of the president's chair. It's just a sideshow.

They have just concluded voting in the southernmost state of Chiapas today, in which the Governor's seat was up for grabs, with the two main candidates being the representatives of the PRD and the PRI party, with the PRI candidate being endorsed by the PAN and New Alliance parties. And guess what? Both candidates are claiming victory right now. LOL!

Expect to hear news on the presidential election from the Electoral Tribunal some time over the next couple of days. I'll let you all know what goes down.

[GeronL]

wow. Thanks for the updates

[rovenstinez]

Here is an election return site that is up and running. Chiapas Governors race http://www.prep-chiapas.com.mx/current/gobernador/

[StJacques]

I have noticed that as time has worn on, the lead of the PRD candidate, Sabines, has built up slowly. My guess is that the early votes recorded are from major cities and the later ones are from the countryside, where I would expect the PRD to be stronger.

I think the PRD may win this one.

[Shuttle Shucker]

In the nearby state of Oaxaca, supposedly the PAN is stronger in RURAL regions while the PRD is stronger in the city. It's analogous to rural Pennsylvania (Republican) vs. the inner cities where Jesse Jackson's politics prevail. This comes from a native indigenous Oaxacan friend from a rural region.

If only the 27 thousand who voted for the PAN gubernatorial candidate had voted for the PRI like the PAN requested...

[Texan5]

Thanks for the update-it looks as if the whining has spread to Chiapas.

[StJacques]

Your friend may be right that the rural vote in Chiapas leans away from the PRD.

When I turned in late last night there was a 17,000+ vote lead for the PRD candidate with about 83+ percent of all casillas counted. Now I see that there 2,386 vote margin in favor of the PRD with about 94.1% of the casillas counted. That means that the PRD lost about 14,000 votes of its lead over the last 10% of the casillas reported. If that trend were to continue the PRI win the last 6% of casillas by about 5,800 votes and would win the election. Add on to that the fact that one of the major media companies in Mexico released the results of their exit poll conducted throughout Chiapas yesterday and they said the PRI won by 2 points.

This is really close.

[Shuttle Shucker]

More encouragingly still is the fact that the PRD gubernatorial candidate in Chiapas has publicly (and hopefully sincerely?) distanced himself from ObraGore's "civil disobedience" antics:

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/370120.html

At least in rural Oaxaca, the folks would prefer to keep their money rather than pay their taxes to central planners who don't do much if anything for the rural regions. It reminds me of the red counties / blue counties electoral map in the USA. Save for some major metropolitan areas, the entire USA tends to be RED :-)

[Shuttle Shucker]

The Mexican Supreme Court has told ObraGore to go pound sand, and let TRIFE decide:

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/370130.html

In the USA, that was enough to get the other Gore to finally back down.

[StJacques]

Based upon what I've been reading today of election violations; PAN, PRI, PVEM, and Nueva Alianza are all going to challenge the Chiapas election before the TEPJF -- they are not going to trust the Chiapas court -- claiming very widespread fraud and they may have some basis for doing so, given what I have been reading.

It appears that the local IEE (the state agency in Chiapas handling the counting of votes) has suspended the preliminary count due to recognizable problems in numerous casillas. There have been some with as much as 400 votes for the PRD candidate Sabines with 0 for the PRI candidate. There is a group of casillas which, when taken together in sum, amount to over 12,000 votes for the PRD candidate and 400 for the PRI candidate. It's pretty clear evidence of fraud.

Based on the close results, it's been frozen at 94.33% of all casillas counted with a 2,405 vote lead for the PRD candidate for a little over an hour now, I think we may be looking at an election that will be annulled.

[Shuttle Shucker]

I wonder what kind of impact this could have on the national presidential elections' outcome, if any...

[StJacques]

Well; we're talking about PRD fraud just 6 weeks after the presidential election. That does shift the popular consciousness on the issue somewhat. But I actually doubt that it will have any real impact on the Electoral Tribunal, who I have come to view as quite professional.

It certainly doesn't help the PRD though, of that I'm sure.

[Cold Heat]

This may be posturing, to get some concessions and appointments from the new government. They need to nip this in the bud by forming a committee to deal with this preemptively.

At least I hope so.

If not, this could be a real problem for the new government and pain for us as well.

[StJacques]

"If not, this could be a real problem for the new government and pain for us as well."

If support for AMLO's challenge to the elections were to grow, it would be a very big problem. But apparently, the air is running out of AMLO's balloon and the damage the PRD has done to itself in the Federal District (Mexico City) by their shutdown of the central business district, which has both hurt and angered a significant number of their own supporters, could bode ill for the PRD over the long run. They were hoping to move the center of their power progressively northward and right now, given what we're seeing as the additional evidence of the Chiapas elections (see previous posts), it's receding in the opposite direction. I think Fox and the PAN have taken the right tack to simply let the PRD do itself in and it's paying dividends right now.

There are three big events coming over the next month: the decision of the Electoral Tribunal on the recounts, which we could see in a couple of days; Vicente Fox's Address to the National Congress on September 1, it's the Mexican equivalent of the State of the Union and which the PRD has promised to disrupt; and the Independence Day celebration of September 16, when AMLO is scheduling his "Democratic National Convention." We'll know a lot more when we see what happens with these three events.

And if the Chiapas election is annulled due to PRD fraud it will only add to the anti-AMLO turn events have taken recently.

[Shuttle Shucker]

>>>I think Fox and the PAN have taken the right tack to simply let the PRD do itself in<<<

As the PRI did in opposing Fox's potential reforms these past several years.

[Cold Heat]

Interesting....Thanks for the info...

[StJacques]

"As the PRI did in opposing Fox's potential reforms these past several years"

An interesting observation that raises a followup.

The PAN is coming into a pre-eminent position of power because the PRI and the PRD are both self-destructing, not because they have successfully delivered on their program.

[Shuttle Shucker]

The PAN has done ok in delivering on their program where Congress has allowed, I guess. I just read that foreign direct investment in Mexico is nearly 70% greater than it was during the same amount of time (5 years) under former president Ernesto Zedillo (when Zedillo admittedly had to confront the psychological consequences of the "tequila effect"). Meanwhile mortgage rates are lower than they've been in several decades, too, although one could argue that's a result of bank openings made possible by the Zedillo Administration to avert a total banking sector meltdown. Nevertheless, thanks in part to the high cost of petroleum (and stern austerity by Fox in some ways I guess) national debt's just 24% of total GDP, in contrast with over 70% (and rapidly growing) here in the USA. Debt's getting repaid early, in fact. Can you imagine having a president with the backbone and aversion to doling contracts out to allies who could accomplish such tasks up here?

[Shuttle Shucker]

It's neat how the conservative PAN is now using Mexico's campaign finance reform laws to poke at the Leftist PRD's blocking major roadways with its tents and other obstructions:

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/nacion/141981.html

The PAN has insightfully cited to the costs of port-a-potties, large drinking water containers and the daily renting of structures ("gruas") that make such nuisances possible. They rather credibly estimate that many millions of dollars are likely involved, too. Such expenditures are from a PRD that has whined about noncompliance with electoral laws. There may be something to this...

[StJacques]

I'd love to get an Austrian Economist (not an economist from Austria, "Austrian Economics" is a school of economic thought) to respond to your post #46 on the economic turnaround in Mexico under the Fox presidency, the phenomenological evidence for which you have expressed quite succinctly.

Austrian Economics focuses a lot of attention on the productivity of capital and a major point of emphasis which Austrian economists make is that inflationary monetary policies driven by the need to finance governmental debt strip capital of its full potential productivity because the purchasing power of currency is diminished. Over the last six years the Fox administration, which has been "frozen in place" so far as its legislative agenda is concerned, has been forced to turn its attention to spending Mexico's national capital reserves on reducing its debt. That debt was 50 Billion dollars when Fox took office and it has since been reduced to 40 Billion, a reduction of 20%. The ensuing effect is that capital resources which were previously used to finance a significant portion of Mexico's national debt have been freed up for use by Mexico's private sector and the impact is recognizable. The pent-up demand for investment capital was reduced, which brought interest rates down and increased the purchasing power of the peso, and the Mexican economy began to show real results as it began to stand on its own two feet. That phenomenon made Mexico a more attractive market for international capital investment, which has been flowing into the country over the past three years or so, since the turnaround became evident. The only problem Mexico really faces in terms of the financing of its domestic economy is the "top heaviness" (my term) that remains in place from its past, because its banking and financial system is still not one that diffuses capital efficiently throughout the country, something I have been pointing to over the past few weeks.

So even though it cannot be said that the PAN party implemented a legislative agenda which turned Mexico around, they can hold themselves up as "honest stewards" of the national economy since the positive effects of their management of Mexico's finances are plainly evident. They are just a few steps away from a brilliantly-executed turnaround from the disastrous economic consequences of the PRI which in the 1980's and 1990's nearly ruined the country completely.

[Shuttle Shucker]

I think it will be great if banks like BofA can operate independently and fully in Mexico. Anyhow, as for:

>>>The ensuing effect is that capital resources which were previously used to finance a significant portion of Mexico's national debt have been freed up for use by Mexico's private sector and the impact is recognizable.<<<

Have taxes declined? I guess what you mean is that interest rates have declined, enabling borrowers to get capital and fuel economic growth? I haven't read Ludwig Von Mises' stuff in a while but I doubt he'd agree that bureaucrats have been eliminating their own jobs even when the country's well-being requires it. Not in Mexico City and certainly not in Washington D.C. (where civil service protections are still ridiculously padded but that is scheduled to change in 2009 unless the new president reverses Bush's reforms).

[StJacques]

I do not know about taxes, but interest rates and inflation have both declined in Mexico.

And Mexico's lack of bureaucratic reform is still a drag on its development. But as you pointed out, we're guilty of that offense ourselves.