Excellent! I want a bloodbath, Smithers. Do you hear me? I want a bloodbath.
Is it too much to hope for that this thing goes to extra innings, with hanging chads, in November?
Posted on 08/22/2006 11:22:11 AM PDT by okstate
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August 22, 2006 Lieberman and Lamont Tied in Connecticut Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont are in a statistical tie in the race for United States Senate in Connecticut according to the latest survey from the American Research Group. Among likely voters in November, 44% say they would vote for Lieberman, 42% say they would vote for Lamont, 3% say they would vote for Alan Schlesinger, and 11% are undecided. Lieberman leads Lamont 57% to 18% among enrolled Republicans and 48% to 38% among unaffiliated (independent) voters. Lamont leads Lieberman 65% to 30% among enrolled Democrats. A total of 56% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Lieberman and 41% have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman. A total of 47% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Lamont and 34% have an unfavorable opinion of Lamont. Overall, 9% of likely voters have favorable opinions of both Lieberman and Lamont. Of this group, Lieberman leads Lamont 68% to 32%. Of the remaining 91% of likely voters, Lieberman and Lamont are tied at 44% each. Also of the remaining 91% of likely voters, 46% have a favorable opinion of Lieberman and 51% have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman, and 42% have a favorable opinion of Lamont and 40% have an unfavorable opinion of Lamont. Of the 11% of likely voters undecided in the US Senate ballot, 57% have a favorable opinion of Lieberman and 43% have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman, and 4% have a favorable opinion of Lamont, 41% have an unfavorable opinion of Lamont, and 55% are aware of Lamont but do not know enough about him to have an opinion. The following results are based on 790 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Connecticut. A total of 188 enrolled Republicans, 261 enrolled Democrats, and 341 unaffiliated voters were interviewed. Of the 790 likely voters, 600 say they always vote. The interviews were conducted August 17-21, 2006. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 790 likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. The theoretical margin of error for the sample of 600 likely voters saying they always vote is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. Question wording and responses: If the general election for US Senate were being held today between Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Joe Lieberman, the independent, and Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, for whom would you vote? (names rotated)
Which of the following names have you heard of in connection with running for US Senate in Connecticut? (names rotated) Ned Lamont. If aware, ask: Would you say that you have a favorable opinion of Ned Lamont, an unfavorable opinion of Ned Lamont, or that you are aware of Ned Lamont but have no opinion of him?
Joe Lieberman. If aware, ask: Would you say that you have a favorable opinion of Joe Lieberman, an unfavorable opinion of Joe Lieberman, or that you are aware of Joe Lieberman but have no opinion of him?
Alan Schlesinger. If aware, ask: Would you say that you have a favorable opinion of Alan Schlesinger, an unfavorable opinion of Alan Schlesinger, or that you are aware of Alan Schlesinger but have no opinion of him?
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Are they conservatives? No! Then I hope they both lose the general election.
Good, the tighter the better to drain more moonbat dollars. I want it to poll a dead-heat until the end, then Lieberman to win by 10.
I don't know why... something smells wrong...
Its Lieberman. A "phoney poll" tie goes to Lieberman.
Lamont hasn't opened his mouth enough yet to cost himself votes.
3% for the Pubbie. That's pathetic.
Go JOE!
I agree. I've heard Hannity stating that Joe is all go. That Lamont hasn't a snowball's chance.
You ain't kiddin'...
Let's just get it out of the way right now; if Lieberman wins, I'll bet anyone any amount they can afford that the kooks will scream that Bush/Rove rigged the election.
I have also heard Lamont speak, and I don't think he has a chance unless they wire his jaws shut.
The "ARG" poll? Was it taken by pirates?
THANK you! :-)
I think it's a fool's errand to support Joemental. When the overwhelmingly blue Connecticut voters see Rs supporting him, they'll fly back to Lamont in droves.
What genius decided to abandon the the R candidate? We could have set up a sweet situation where the Dims battled it out and split the vote between them, while the GOP candidate sailed in under the radar.
Honestly, I don't know the so-called "strategists" are thinking sometimes. Don't we *want* a guy with (R) next to his name in the Senate seat, or do we want a super liberal (except for the WOT) in there with an (I) next to his name?
How would the (R) slip under the radar in such a blue state when the 2 liberals get at least 40% each?
I don't know. I just know we gots wh we gots.
I'll be satisfied with another two months of a Rat circular firing squad. A contested election result with recounts and lawsuits would be the cherry on top.
Yup, they're gonna throw him under the bus, cutting of their noses, so to speak.
A$$holes.
Go Ned!
Yes, but Lamont frankly does not deserve to be in the Senate. The Republican is out of the question. Lieberman, as the lesser of two evils, should win.
Oh gee, this race tightened after Bush and stoopid pubs shot off their mouth. What a surprise.
On the other hand, the polls showed Lamont leading by 13% in the primary which he won by about 2%...
We just had a Democrat primary where Lieberman lost by 4%. Now we are to believe Lamont has 65% of the Democrat vote. Another poll to make news not report it. There is no news on the candidate's positions or debate only polls by interested parties.
In all fairness, I would think a lot of Democrats that voted for Lieberman in the primaries switched to Lamont afterwards because they may think of Lieberman as a "sore loser" for still running as an independent. So Lamont getting 65 percent of Democrats is not surprising to me at all.
Eh? Connecticut is blue, but not 80% blue. I could easily see a scenario where Lament and Lieberman get 30% each, and the Repub gets 40%.
It would *have* *been* a scenario where the GOP would not throw its own candidate under the bus. That ship has sailed, though. He's sunk. And now Lament can rightfully brand Lieberman as being the Republican choice, chasing the Libs back to him. Can you imagine the TV ads? "Lieberman = Bush", they'll say. All Dims see that as an insult that sticks. Count on it.
And even if we get Lieberman, he's still pretty dang liberal on almost everything except WOT. And even there, didn't you see him calling for Rummy's ouster? Why are Republicans so gooey-eyed for Lieberman? Sure, he honks off far left libs, but heck, that's like shooting fish in a barrel :-)
From Strata-Sphere blog: http://www.strata-sphere.com/blog/
A new ARG poll has some interesting numbers when compared to the Qinnipiac poll which came out last week. First off, the ARG poll theoretically shows a tight race:
Among likely voters in November, 44% say they would vote for Lieberman, 42% say they would vote for Lamont, 3% say they would vote for Alan Schlesinger, and 11% are undecided.
As a CNN report on the poll notes, the big difference is the number of undecideds which are 2% in the Qinnipiac Poll. Lamont is at the same level in both polls as is Schlessinger. And the break down among Reps, Dems and Indies is about the same as well. Dems are 65-30 for Lamont. Reps are 57-18 Leiberman and Independents (the largest voter group) has Leiberman ahead 48-38. Which is terrible news for Lamont because dems only make up one third of the electorate according to ARG’s model.
Clearly the undecideds broke for Leiberman in the Qinnipiac poll and the ARG poll did not ‘push’ this group into either camp. But details in the ARG poll show they will go to Leiberman because only 5% of Dems are undecided and cannot make up the gap. If the Rep and Indie undecideds follow the trend of their general groups then Lamont loses (he is behind now and will lose more Reps and Indies than he gains). But it could be worse than that. The undecideds in the ARG poll are heavily against Lamont:
Of the 11% of likely voters undecided in the US Senate ballot, 57% have a favorable opinion of Lieberman and 43% have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman, and 4% have a favorable opinion of Lamont, 41% have an unfavorable opinion of Lamont, and 55% are aware of Lamont but do not know enough about him to have an opinion.
The high negatives for Lamont (negative 38 verses Joe’s postive 14) is a real killer. Lamont is polling around 42% and that may be his ceiling, Schlessinger is around 4% and that looks like his ceiling as well. That leaves Leiberman a killer 54% if these are the ceilings for the other two candidates. That 54% level is right in line with the Qinnipiac poll. I bet these numbers stay firm unless Democrats run from Lamont - which is totally possible. As I posted earlier, I have my doubts that the Democrat support for Lamont is going to be 65-35, I believe it will end up being right in line with the 52-48 primary results. That would make Lamont’s chances basically hopeless. Either way, these two polls are not saying anything different, they are just presenting the data in a slightly different way. Watch as the lefties delude themselves into thinking Lamont has momentum!
Update: We know some top level CT democrats have already broken ranks and supported Joe, and it appears now Labor is also standing by Leiberman.
At a rally in New Haven today, representatives of about 20 unions say they’re supporting Lieberman because of his experience and credentials. Lamont is expecting an endorsement tomorrow from the United Auto Workers.
The Lamont defection is already beginning
Not true. He's the former mayor of the smallest city in the state and served as a State Rep. Nevertheless, he's a bad candidate, and it's stupid for the GOP not to press for his replacement by a better candidate. There are at least three who could win this thing. Why settle for Loserman?
Democrat -- 37.0
GOP -- 0.4
Any other (Lieberman) -- 61.0
Lieberman is down 5.5 and Lamont up 4.0 from yesterday -- so these polls have "moved the market".
The fact that the polls moved the market modestly but did not cause a panic sell down to 55 or lower is an indication that they are just a bump in the road to an easy Lieberman victory. ~60 is a mighty tempting buy.
That's the ARR poll, sillers.
Lesser of two evils is right!
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