Record immigration from eastern Europe [ti UK]

The Telegraph ^ | 8/21/06 | Philip Johnston

[Atlantic Bridge]

The sad thing is that Eastern European have almost as low reproduction rate as the West. So the young, energetic people leave and old or sick people are left. This spells demographic disaster.

This is exactly what will happen. All that will be left is a empty steppe. In eastern Germany (where all able youngsters left for western Germany) you already can observe the outcome.

Since I doubt that the reproduction rate can be raised (it is falling everywhere - even in the US) due to the new role that females found because of emancipation, politics have to deal with some fundamental problems in the near future.

[Grzegorz 246]

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

The low reproduction rate is a product of feminism and the selfish values of the current generation. Women now view career as more important than family, and if they finally figure out what is really important, it is usually in their late 30s and frequently only one child results.

Men are also somewhat responsible. Many young men are happy to score with as many women as they can rather than marry and settle down.

[from occupied ga]

More than 427,000 eastern Europeans have come to work in Britain since the expansion of the European Union in May 2004, more than twenty times official predictions

They think this is bad? BFD. I just heard on the news that my county (not state, but just the county) I live in has 475,000 ILLEGAL aliens (85% Mexicans)

[Atlantic Bridge]

Just take a look to contemporary eastern Germany:

Besides of the joke - we (and you) will get a real problem. Catholic Poland has a lower fertility rate than "godless" Germany. A average Polish woman has only 1.25 kids (Germany: 1.39). It seems that your girls failed to read the famous "Humanae Vitae" encyclical written by Pope Paul VI. :-(

If many young and educated Poles leave the country now they will be missing sooner or later. Since your population is obviously aging in a frightening way, they are needed in the near future to pay pensions, taxes and to run the country. It is the same structural problem we have in (espechially in eastern) Germany.

The bitter facts:
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html

It is better to face such problems than to play them down.

[Atlantic Bridge]

What can be done about it? I do not have a answer to that question.

[Grzegorz 246]

Andrew, sorry for not very sophisticated reaction to your previous post, but I didn't have much time and "empty steppe" really made me laugh.

Seriously demography in Poland is working in WW2 cycles and there's millions of 20-30 years old people in Poland (that's why median age is still one of the lowest in Europe, although current birth rate is one of the lowest too), who usually yet don't have children at all - that's because economical problems(and Poles don't like 3rd world style breeding with half naked kids running around the house), mainly unemployment, which thanks to simple demography is going to be solved even without very impressive growth (and even with twins in power growth is going to be ~5% in the next years), the other thing is change in the lifestyle, which makes having children before you are 30yo very difficult. Without these problems, which is only a matter of time (and the only question is "the second Ireland" or "the second Greece" - even the latter one is not so bad) the birth rate (in longer term, not in the middle of a cycle) should be close to replacement level and the rest can be filled with immigrants, not necessarily from Pakistan.

"they are needed in the near future to pay pensions, taxes and to run the country."

If you didn't notice we have still 16% unemployment rate, so how these people, sitting jobless here would be "better for Poland" ? Now instead of that they are pumping the cash back to the country, something like $7 billion in last year. Sure, If the situation is not going to be improved within the next 6-8 years, we will have a serious problem, but without WW3 that's rather impossible, even twins can't screw that so much.

BTW In a year my contract in current job ends and probably I will take advantage of the open markets in EU, for 2 or 3 years. Now ping vox, he will probably call me a traitor, should be funny to read his BS.

[Atlantic Bridge]

BTW In a year my contract in current job ends and probably I will take advantage of the open markets in EU, for 2 or 3 years. Now ping vox, he will probably call me a traitor, should be funny to read his BS.

Buhuhaha! Vox would probably tell me that it is no problem if people like you will leave the country "for 2 or 3 years" since all of you proud Poles are that nationalistic (for Vox) that you will come back for sure. We both know that the truth looks different. I.e. Ireland and the UK has wonderful girls and it is a genial wonder of mother nature that nice young guys like you are attracted to them. When you work for "2 or 3 years" in those countries usually you will have earned a stable existance and conquered a nice British lady then, which is the basement to a family (if you want to have one). To go back with a new western girlfriend/wife into a economical instable situation in Poland with much less payment is rather unlikely. Girls (no matter of their nationality) usually like bucks...

Just take a look to Germany. We had this experience already with i.e. the Italians. All of them have a close relationship to their home for good reasons. Italy is one of the finest places on this planet and Italians are as proud and nationalistic (in a good sense) as Poles are. During the 60ties several millions of Italians came to Germany. It was planned to "rotate them out" after "2 or 3 years" (here it comes again). Since most companies didn't wanted to abandon their drilled and instructed Italian colleagues they prolonged the "2 or 3 years" to a lifetime. Today we have millions ethnical Italians living in Germany. It would be naive to think that it will be different with the Poles that go to the UK and Ireland now.

One of the biggest problems is that only those who are skilled and able leave. I.e. in east Germany we have indeed a intellectual "steppe" in the meantime. Espechially young women and high school graduates leave. The social loosers are those who usually stay (this can't be generalized - but it reflects the common trend). Therefore your argument, that the high unemployment rate leaves those people who are going abroad without a job in Poland is not cogent. Guys like you would find a job, but you will earn much less than in the UK i.e.. Those who will be unemployed anyway are the unskilled "loosers" of the society since they are simply not able to meet the requirements of the modern job market. It is the same thing in Germany: We would have jobs enough, but a large part of our unemployed people are simply useless in our modern economy with its high demands. Germany and Poland need programmers but no street cleaners.

Something funny - it gives you a wonderful insight into the German job market. You probably know about the seasonal workers from Poland that help our German farmes to get in the harvest. Every year that God gives we go through the same drama. Espechially the CSU is fighting for strict immigration restrictions for Poles getting those jobs since we have really more than enough unskilled unemployed Germans who could do that. Every year (after a fierce populous discussion) they impose quotas of German seasonal workers on the poor German farmers. This year i.e. I know that there was a quota of 20% Germans on the fields in several districts. Those seasonal workers from Germany are arranged from the Arbeitsamt (Federal Employment Office) with the outcome that one out of ten Germans who worked on the field kept up until the end of the season. The rest preferd to quit because of health causes or they simply stayed at home because they are too lazy and prefer living from welfare. For the farmers it means that 10 - 20% of their harvest is withering in the sun. You see - most of Germany's unemployed are simply human junk. They got fat from too much welfare but we can not use them in our economy anymore.

My own gouvernment was moronic enough to block the immigration of Poles until 2011. Now we have to pay for the unintelligent populism of Gerhard Schroeder and Edmund Stoiber. I would be pleased to get as many skilled and hard-working Poles as possible for a good payment into our country for very selfish reasons. Bang for the buck. That would help our economy to fill in the empty spaces that will open soon because of our negative population development.

Besides - catholic or not - if women experienced a certain amount of personal freedom (having a own job, having their own money etc. etc. etc.) they tend to have less children than before. You are for sure right that the difficult economic situation in Poland has its part on the low fertillity rate, but it will be difficult to enlarge it again if your country will start to boom. I.e. in south west Germany where I live we have practically no serious economic problems. Our local unemployment rate is around 5% and the payments are good. Our people are conservative and christian. The gouvernment tries to provide good childcare to give our women space to develop themselves. Nevertheless they do not get enough kids anymore.

[DesScorp]

I wish America would throw open the gates for East Europeans...hard workers that would adapt and love us, instead of coming here demanding this and that.

[Grzegorz 246]

Please, don't preach to me about things, which I know better :(

"Vox would probably tell me that it is no problem if people like you will leave the country "for 2 or 3 years" since all of you proud Poles are that nationalistic (for Vox) that you will come back for sure."

I can tell something similar, but the main reason is not patriotism or "nationalism", but cash. GDP per capita in Poland is about $14 thousand, but that's according to PPP, nominally something like half of that, while in UK and especially in Ireland PPP is lower than nominal GDP - that's why you can buy a flat here after a year of working there (even as a simple worker If you take "flexible hours", which usually less "cash oriented" natives don't want to take and prefer a beer in a pub on friday evening than even twice better cash per h), while living there like "normal" people with a family is not any paradise. And prices of any real estates are simply ridiculous. My oldest brother (I don't post private informations as a rule, but let me do few exceptions in this thread) had been working in Western Europe for most of 90s, but somehow "came back".

"Germany and Poland need programmers but no street cleaners."

What Poland needs is faster growth, people here are "overeducated" for this level of economical development, we've got programmers, who are working in Macdonald.

"Guys like you would find a job, but you will earn much less than in the UK i.e.. Those who will be unemployed anyway are the unskilled "loosers" of the society since they are simply not able to meet the requirements of the modern job market."

I really have a job, the problem is that I don't like It anymore and to make a serious money in other job I would have to move to Warsaw - ugly city, where I know fewer people than in Dublin or London, besides I don't like, when anyone tells me what to do and here taking a loan from bank to start own business is not a very good idea, asking one uncle or another or a brother is not how "real men" should do these things, besides(2) except short trips I have never lived abroad and It would be interesting to see how things are going on over there. Situation in Poland is much different than in Germany and here not all jobless people are "unskilled loosers".

"You probably know about the seasonal workers from Poland that help our German farmes to get in the harvest."

And we've just opened our job market for seasonal workers from Ukraine, because most of people here, willing to do these shitty jobs is leaving in the summer to the west.

"You see - most of Germany's unemployed are simply human junk. They got fat from too much welfare but we can not use them in our economy anymore."

The system is just wrong (welfare) and not the people. I'm sure that many of them would make Poles look like lazy bustards (like Ukrainians do It here) If they could make let's say EUR 5000-6000 a month doing these shitty jobs.

"Besides - catholic or not - if women experienced a certain amount of personal freedom (having a own job, having their own money etc. etc. etc.) they tend to have less children than before."

This is not the point here, in case of jobs for women in commie times we were even more "progressive" than the west.



At worst we will "lose" 0.5 million people, which can be easily replaced by people from Ukraine, Belarus or countries, which are going to join EU and there's no chance that continental old EU will open their markets for them - btw articles like this one shows that even UK and Ireland rather won't do that.

[Grzegorz 246]

I love you anyway.

[bruinbirdman]

"Just take a look to contemporary eastern Germany:"

That picture looks more like Kazakstan than E. Germany. Right click, then properties

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/91/Steppe_of_western_Kazakhstan_in_the_early

yitbos

[Atlantic Bridge]

It was a sarcastic (insider) joke between me (a West-German) and Grzegorz (a Pole). Of course this picture is not from East Germany, but recently we West-Germans started to talk about "the steppe" since it is the best term to reflect the problems of this part of our country. Although we invested bazillions into the east German infrastructure there is no growth and development, because most able people left for the west a long time ago. The east German population exists of mainly elderly people and idiots. This is the reason is also another "bonmot": The German DDR (Deutsche Demokratische Republik - GDR - German Democratic Republic - the former commie state) can also be translated into "Der Dumme Rest" (The Silly Remains).

[Atlantic Bridge]

At worst we will "lose" 0.5 million people, which can be easily replaced by people from Ukraine, Belarus or countries, which are going to join EU and there's no chance that continental old EU will open their markets for them - btw articles like this one shows that even UK and Ireland rather won't do that.

We will see. Do not forget that old continental Europe has a fundamental problem with its reproduction rate. We have reason to be open. Trossingen, the town were I live is i.e. already full of young Ukrainians and Russians. The violin teacher of my eldest son come from the Ukraine, the piano teacher of my other (middle) son comes from Russia and the family of the best friend of my youngest son is from Poland. You see - European future already started in Germany.

:-)

[bruinbirdman]

I think your observations are right on. Too bad the new Kaiser (former commie? we call them neo-cons) can't get welfare reforms through the Reichstaag.

A little levity, there.

yitbos

[Grzegorz 246]

"Trossingen, the town were I live is i.e. already full of young Ukrainians and Russians."

Maybe, but If most of old EU didn't open their labor markets for "2004 members" and some, including yours still keep them closed then It's hard to believe that in near future they will open them for "2007 members", not to mention Ukraine or others. Some of these people obviously work and live in the Western Europe, you may always find some way to do It, but that's a limited number of them. Belarus, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Georgia, Armenia and a few others - that's over 100 million people, not to mention in fact unlimited human resources outside of Europe, but that I would like to avoid. The problem in Poland is low level of economical development, not quality or number of workforce, according to IMF, World Bank, OECD and anything else, GDP growth should be avg. +5% a year for the next 5-6 years, so at least partly this problem is going to be solved and people go where they smell the money.