To: Molly Pitcher
There will be terrible consequences from such an attack. These must be weighed against the terrible consequences of allowing an openly apocalyptic Iranian leadership from acquiring weapons of genocide.
We have a clear choice. This is the biggest test we face in the present times. I hope and pray the Administration does not let us down.
posted on 08/25/2006 5:26:33 AM PDT
We only have 2 military options that can bear fruit.
1) Bomb the facilities. But the success of that depends completely on our intel. We know most of the sites but do we know all? Can our bombs/missiles deliver a hard enough blow to buy time? How much time? 6 Months? 1-2 years? Will a future President Clinton, Romney, Guiliani, Feingold be prepared to strike again when necessary?
Or if the sites are very hardened would we need to send in special forces/airborne troops to assault a few key facilities and destroy them on the ground? Risky but we would have greater assurance of success.
2) Create an Iranian 'Contra-like' force inside Iran to wage an insurgency inside the country. That raises it's own questions. Is there an indigenous group(s) willing take up arms against Iran. I'm sure the Kurdish population might, but what about the others (Turkmen, Azeri, etc.) They would probably not be strong enough to overthrow the regime but they could disrupt oil production enough to crash their economy and possibly bring up regime change from within.
I would prefer number #2. Iran only exports 2.5 mbp of oil. If we could get the other countries to boost production to cover the loss we could bring down the Iranian economy in months with a concerted insurgency campaign against their vulnerable oil production facilities.
posted on 08/25/2006 11:29:32 AM PDT
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