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The First Post-Macaca GOP '08 Straw Poll (Allen Craters to 11.5%)
Red State.com ^ | 8.27.06 | machiavel

Posted on 08/28/2006 11:23:42 AM PDT by gopwinsin04

The results of the latest GOP Bloggers straw poll are in. The poll was posted on the Red State homepage over the weekend, and first-choice results are as follows (full results with RS results in parentheses).

Giuliani 24.6% (22.0%) Gingrich 21.1% (19.5%) Romney 12.8% (15.8%) Allen 11.5% (11.3%) Tancredo 6.7% (4.5%) McCain 6.4% (6.7%) Hagel 2.8% (3.3%) Brownback 2.5% (3.2%) Huckabee 1.5% (1.8%) Frist 1.1% (0.9%) Pataki 0.3% (0.3%)Read on...

The Macaca incident has clearly devastated Allen’s numbers in the blogosphere, his stronghold. He used to have sky-high favorability, largely because he hadn’t done anything to offend anyone. He also used to run first or second (tangling with Giuliani) with 20% to 30% in polls like this. Once undefined, he has now been defined in a hugely negative way, dropping to fourth with 11.5% support.

The only true direct comparison is the results for individual blogs. From July to August, Allen dropped 23.9% in net favorability among RedState readers. RealClearPolitics also ran the poll both months – and probably has an audience that’s even more plugged-in politically than RedState. On that site, Allen dropped an astonishing 41.6% points in a month, and now has 6.5% first place votes. Allen probably still retains some “true-believer” support among the more conservative sites of the blogosphere. Let’s see if that holds up.

Who’s the new conservative “it” candidate? Newt! The conservative mantle has shifted to Newt over the last few months. He got a huge boost last month for being all over the Israel-Hezbollah war. Allen’s implosion has given Newt’s people a reason to stick around, at least for a while. Vis Numar makes this development the headline, but inaccurately notes that his numbers went from +1% to +40% in a month. That was actually from a poll taken earlier in the year, but it highlights how far Newt has come.

Bottom line: It looks like Newt’s decision to stay out the race until November of ’07 could throw the race into some turmoil, with all the major campaigns calculating what happens if Newt gets in. He’s clearly trying to play kingmaker and anoint the preferred conservative if he doesn’t run, and numbers like this suggest he could pull it off.

Giuliani and Romney show positive movement. There’s a consistent pattern of Romney and Giuliani momentum among a few of the bigger blogs participating in the poll. Among RedState readers, Romney moved up a net 10.9% and Giuliani a net 10.8% in acceptability. On RealClearPolitics, Romney moved up 18.9% to Giuliani’s 12.5%. On Blogs for Bush, Giuliani moved up 22.8% and Romney was up 14.8%.

McCain supporters love Giuliani and Giuliani supporters are pretty fond of Romney – handy reference should either of the two offline frontrunners falter.

Men and boys by AcademicElephant Looks like the men are being seperated from the boys--but I'm still having trouble getting excited about any of them.

"I'm kind of old-fashioned. I like to engage my brain before my mouth." Donald Rumsfeld


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008polls; allen; allen2008; brownback; frist; gingrich; giuliani; giuliani2008; gop; hagel; huckabee; mccain; pataki; redstate; romney; tancredo
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1 posted on 08/28/2006 11:23:43 AM PDT by gopwinsin04
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To: gopwinsin04

This, too, shall pass.

George in 2008. Easy.


2 posted on 08/28/2006 11:25:26 AM PDT by wouldntbprudent (If you can: Contribute more (babies) to the next generation of God-fearing American Patriots!)
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To: gopwinsin04

Well, Allen did make a "not ready for prime time" impression.


3 posted on 08/28/2006 11:25:53 AM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: wouldntbprudent
George in 2008. Easy.

Top or bottom of the ticket?

4 posted on 08/28/2006 11:28:29 AM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: colorado tanker
Does Newt really have this much hard core support?

'Bottom line: It looks like Newt’s decision to stay out the race until November of ’07 could throw the race into some turmoil, with all the major campaigns calculating what happens if Newt gets in. He’s clearly trying to play kingmaker and anoint the preferred conservative if he doesn’t run, and numbers like this suggest he could pull it off.'

5 posted on 08/28/2006 11:29:20 AM PDT by gopwinsin04
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To: gopwinsin04

I miss 1980.


6 posted on 08/28/2006 11:29:51 AM PDT by Southside_Chicago_Republican (The moving finger writes and, having writ, moves on......)
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To: gopwinsin04

Yes, the man bailed out Bill Clinton and is a serial adulterer, would make a great conservative candidate.


7 posted on 08/28/2006 11:31:14 AM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

Newt can enjoy the buildup if he doesn't decide to run.


8 posted on 08/28/2006 11:32:16 AM PDT by gopwinsin04
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To: gopwinsin04
He's NEVER been a front-runner for the 2008 nomination... this ain't new. What IS new... is that McCain is now down to 6.4%!
9 posted on 08/28/2006 11:32:51 AM PDT by johnny7 (“And what's Fonzie like? Come on Yolanda... what's Fonzie like?!”)
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To: gopwinsin04
McCain supporters love Giuliani and Giuliani supporters are pretty fond of Romney

Makes sense. RINO scum stick together.

10 posted on 08/28/2006 11:33:41 AM PDT by JohnnyZ (I ha' da Steve Nash DO befo' Steve Nash DID)
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To: gopwinsin04
I think not. The record for Congressmen jumping to the Presidency is not good. It's really hard to build a base without even a statewide race under your belt. And the Speakership is a low profile office to ordinary voters.

I think Newt's base is pretty much limited to conservative bloggers and news junkies.

11 posted on 08/28/2006 11:33:43 AM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: nickcarraway

He also ended a decades-long domination of Congress by the Democrats, and is the only conservative leader in memory to have the guts to shut down the government. Who else has better credentials and can be trusted not to stick his foot in his mouth?


12 posted on 08/28/2006 11:34:07 AM PDT by thoughtomator (There is no "Islamofascism" - there is only Islam)
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To: gopwinsin04
The First Post-Macaca GOP '08 Straw Poll

2 years out, means absolutely NOTHING.

13 posted on 08/28/2006 11:36:21 AM PDT by theDentist (Qwerty ergo typo : I type, therefore I misspelll.)
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To: colorado tanker

right now I'd say the race is primed for a Jeb Bush or Arnold Schwartznegger to drop in.


14 posted on 08/28/2006 11:36:36 AM PDT by gopwinsin04
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To: gopwinsin04
He’s clearly trying to play kingmaker and anoint the preferred conservative if he doesn’t run, and numbers like this suggest he could pull it off.

IMO the support for Newt is for "conservative candidate To Be Determined".

I think there'a a good chance we'll see a new name emerge, somebody like Jim Gilmore or Mark Sanford.

15 posted on 08/28/2006 11:36:42 AM PDT by JohnnyZ (I ha' da Steve Nash DO befo' Steve Nash DID)
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My take from the various polls noted here is that we are likely to get a 2008 ticket even less attractive to social Conservatives - especially those with strong religious convictions - than even the current administration. I don't know if this portends a third party candidate, or just less enthusiasm at the polls, or something else.


16 posted on 08/28/2006 11:36:52 AM PDT by M. Dodge Thomas (More of the same, only with more zeros at the end.)
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To: gopwinsin04

I would happily support Newt.


17 posted on 08/28/2006 11:39:05 AM PDT by Hydroshock ( (Proverbs 22:7). The rich ruleth over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender.)
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To: wouldntbprudent
I like George Allen, but he has to win his senate race first. That is not a slam dunk. Allen appears to be a "nice guy" which is what people said about dubya before he was elected. McCain will never get the nomination, he has ticked off too many. Romney is not as liberal as some on FR have opined, but his deal with RATS on medical coverage concerns me. Rudy is still the man to beat in my opinion. I know, the Rudy haters will come forth. Also, I don't think Newt can get over his image from the 90s.
18 posted on 08/28/2006 11:39:37 AM PDT by GeorgefromGeorgia
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To: GeorgefromGeorgia

Newt should read Tom Coburn's book before launching a run. I'm sure all Newt's opponents will.


19 posted on 08/28/2006 11:44:33 AM PDT by NeoCaveman (AIDS = Amnesty Interrupted Derangement Syndrome)
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To: gopwinsin04
The "Caca" wing of Redstate are likely trolls, its a nothing event and George Allen will win in the primaries.

The Rudy/McCain/Romney cheerleaders will have to get used to political facts, they will never be the nominee.
20 posted on 08/28/2006 11:44:38 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Ronald Reagan didn't turn me into a Republican....Jimmy Carter did that!!)
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To: gopwinsin04
right now I'd say the race is primed for a Jeb Bush or Arnold Schwartznegger to drop in.

Arnold is constitutionally ineligible.

21 posted on 08/28/2006 11:44:56 AM PDT by Lurking Libertarian (Non sub homine, sed sub Deo et lege)
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To: gopwinsin04
Arnold Schwartznegger ...when was the law changed?
22 posted on 08/28/2006 11:45:08 AM PDT by top 2 toe red (To the enemy in Iraq..."Don't bet on American politics forcing my hand!" President Bush)
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To: gopwinsin04

What state was Arnold born in?


23 posted on 08/28/2006 11:46:26 AM PDT by tiger-one (The night has a thousand eyes)
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To: gopwinsin04

Lower third


24 posted on 08/28/2006 11:47:17 AM PDT by tiger-one (The night has a thousand eyes)
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To: GeorgefromGeorgia
Rudy is still the man to beat in my opinion....and he CAN beat the hildabeast!

I know, the Rudy haters will come forth....no Rudy hater here!

25 posted on 08/28/2006 11:48:20 AM PDT by top 2 toe red (To the enemy in Iraq..."Don't bet on American politics forcing my hand!" President Bush)
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To: tiger-one

I noticed that the MSN media darling McPain is just above Hagel. He is going nowhere. Hehehehe.


26 posted on 08/28/2006 11:49:51 AM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: top 2 toe red
"Rudy is still the man to beat in my opinion....and he CAN beat the hildabeast!"

A dead raccoon could beat Hildabeast, even the RATS know that now.
27 posted on 08/28/2006 11:51:12 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Ronald Reagan didn't turn me into a Republican....Jimmy Carter did that!!)
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To: gopwinsin04
What the hell is a Macaca? Is it found in a diaper?
28 posted on 08/28/2006 11:53:41 AM PDT by chuckles
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Comment #29 Removed by Moderator

To: wouldntbprudent

Is anybody even going to remember this let alone care when the primaries come around?

From all of the negative press he's been getting the past few weeks, it seems pretty clear to me that the 'Rats (and a lot of the Republicans) are trying everything they can to derail Allen because they see him as the real frontrunner in 2008 regardless of what any polls show.


30 posted on 08/28/2006 11:59:00 AM PDT by wagglebee ("We are ready for the greatest achievements in the history of freedom." -- President Bush, 1/20/05)
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To: gopwinsin04

I never thought I'd see the day when Gingrich had a real shot of winning the nomination. But it looks like he might.



Too bad Buchanan burned his bridges a few years back.


31 posted on 08/28/2006 12:00:06 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: colorado tanker

Well, Allen did make a "not ready for prime time" impression.




You know what they say you only get one time.


32 posted on 08/28/2006 12:00:21 PM PDT by Blackirish
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To: gopwinsin04
Jeb would be the obvious choice and a fantastic candidate - if it weren't for his last name. Charges of a dynasty and all that.

I'd sure vote for him.

33 posted on 08/28/2006 12:01:48 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: NeoCaveman
I haven't read Coburn's book, but I read some reviews on Amazon. I always felt that the GOP caved when the Government Shutdown was painted by Clinton as evil. When Reagan was President and he vetoed the spending bills, he was blamed for shutting down the government. I think Newt could have passed a continuing resolution that kept government going on a more limited spending level, while planning a better PR campaign. Slick out slicked Newt, and Newt's megalomania hurt.
34 posted on 08/28/2006 12:01:48 PM PDT by GeorgefromGeorgia
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To: wouldntbprudent
The Macaca incident has clearly devastated Allen’s numbers in the blogosphere, his stronghold.

Is this hyperbole? He went from 11.5% to 11.3%.

35 posted on 08/28/2006 12:04:19 PM PDT by Vigilanteman
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To: GeorgefromGeorgia
Yeah, I remember some senior pubbies gleeful that the government was going to shut down. They should have been doing a p.r. campaign to throw the blame B.J.'s way instead of crowing about it - which accepted the blame in the public's eye.
36 posted on 08/28/2006 12:05:02 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: JohnnyZ

Romney is RINO scum?


37 posted on 08/28/2006 12:05:42 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (Why are protectionists so bad at math?)
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To: wagglebee
"Is anybody even going to remember this let alone care when the primaries come around? "

Good point. One only need to read the twaddle in the DUck room to see who they most fear in 2008...George Allen!
38 posted on 08/28/2006 12:06:11 PM PDT by Beagle8U (Ronald Reagan didn't turn me into a Republican....Jimmy Carter did that!!)
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To: gopwinsin04

LOL! I just noticed where Frist is. Pathetic.


39 posted on 08/28/2006 12:07:30 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: GeorgefromGeorgia; Dog Gone; Ernest_at_the_Beach; tubebender; hedgetrimmer; forester; Czar
You, Sir George, are right on the money with that astute analysis!!!

Allen totally lost me, however, when he went completely nuts over the totalitarian tainted concept of "Heritage Corridors," or anything even remotely like that that inhibits, or damages individual property rights, including the right to control, as well as own property in this great land!!!

40 posted on 08/28/2006 12:08:31 PM PDT by SierraWasp (With government as your savior from disaster, it must first be your master!!!)
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To: wouldntbprudent

If non-serious name calling once can cause a person to change their vote choice then they are not very serious thinking people to begin with and their gauge for choosing a president is superficial. Having said that, I don't think such people even put forth the effort to go vote.


41 posted on 08/28/2006 12:09:20 PM PDT by conservative blonde (Conservative Blonde)
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To: Beagle8U

Yeah, if this is all the 'Rats can come up with, Allen is unstoppable and my guess is that they know it. My prediction for 2008 is Allen as the nominee with Guiliani as his running mate.


42 posted on 08/28/2006 12:10:22 PM PDT by wagglebee ("We are ready for the greatest achievements in the history of freedom." -- President Bush, 1/20/05)
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To: Southside_Chicago_Republican

The list of potentials is depressing. You or I could do as well as that bunch.


Of course, it's even more depressing on the Dem side.



This may be an historical election... The worst choice of any Presidential election in history.


43 posted on 08/28/2006 12:10:55 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: gopwinsin04; EDINVA; iceskater; xyz123; Mudboy Slim; Corin Stormhands; jla; Flora McDonald; ...
You'll pardon my skepticism regardind your assessment of Allen, particularly since you don't know the process well enough to know that Arnold will never be President without a change in the Constitution.

This poll is worthless. And it's not helpful in our efforts to get Allen reelected to the Senate.

I don't give a rat's clymer if he's your candidate for 08. But we need him in the Senate.

44 posted on 08/28/2006 12:11:27 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands (HHD: Join the Hobbit Hole Troop Support - http://freeper.the-hobbit-hole.net/)
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To: colorado tanker

I think that's exactly it. He isn't ready for the Big Show.


45 posted on 08/28/2006 12:11:39 PM PDT by HitmanLV ("If at first you don't succeed, keep on sucking until you do succeed." - Jerry 'Curly' Howard)
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To: wagglebee
Is anybody even going to remember this let alone care when the primaries come around?

The MSM will work overtime to ensure they do. From now on there will be few if any articles or news reports that do not have "macaca" or "racist" within ten "words of Sen. Allen of Virginia."

Its what they do best.

46 posted on 08/28/2006 12:12:02 PM PDT by JCEccles
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To: gopwinsin04

No more Bushes. Put a Bush anywhere on the ticket and its a loser.


47 posted on 08/28/2006 12:13:58 PM PDT by HitmanLV ("If at first you don't succeed, keep on sucking until you do succeed." - Jerry 'Curly' Howard)
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To: gopwinsin04

The "Macaca" remark did not bother me. The groveling after the remark infuriated me. His betrayal of Southern Heritage is also very troubling. The man has no Core Convictions and will backtrack when confronted. IOW, he's gutless.


48 posted on 08/28/2006 12:14:43 PM PDT by BnBlFlag (Deo Vindice/Semper Fidelis "Ya gotta saddle up your boys; Ya gotta draw a hard line")
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To: JCEccles

That's fine too, Allen can address it more often and even joke about it. In two years, people will come to see it as a joke and ignore it. For example, the media tried everything they could to make sKerry look like a big "war hero" and it failed miserably, the more they said it, they more ridiculous it sounded -- this will be the same thing, just in reverse.


49 posted on 08/28/2006 12:14:59 PM PDT by wagglebee ("We are ready for the greatest achievements in the history of freedom." -- President Bush, 1/20/05)
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To: gopwinsin04

Why is anyone wasting money doing a poll on the week before Labor Day?

No one but us is thinking about that stuff right now...


50 posted on 08/28/2006 12:15:45 PM PDT by Armedanddangerous (Master of Sinanju (emeritus))
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