Skip to comments.The First Post-Macaca GOP '08 Straw Poll (Allen Craters to 11.5%)
Posted on 08/28/2006 11:23:42 AM PDT by gopwinsin04
The results of the latest GOP Bloggers straw poll are in. The poll was posted on the Red State homepage over the weekend, and first-choice results are as follows (full results with RS results in parentheses).
Giuliani 24.6% (22.0%) Gingrich 21.1% (19.5%) Romney 12.8% (15.8%) Allen 11.5% (11.3%) Tancredo 6.7% (4.5%) McCain 6.4% (6.7%) Hagel 2.8% (3.3%) Brownback 2.5% (3.2%) Huckabee 1.5% (1.8%) Frist 1.1% (0.9%) Pataki 0.3% (0.3%)Read on...
The Macaca incident has clearly devastated Allens numbers in the blogosphere, his stronghold. He used to have sky-high favorability, largely because he hadnt done anything to offend anyone. He also used to run first or second (tangling with Giuliani) with 20% to 30% in polls like this. Once undefined, he has now been defined in a hugely negative way, dropping to fourth with 11.5% support.
The only true direct comparison is the results for individual blogs. From July to August, Allen dropped 23.9% in net favorability among RedState readers. RealClearPolitics also ran the poll both months and probably has an audience thats even more plugged-in politically than RedState. On that site, Allen dropped an astonishing 41.6% points in a month, and now has 6.5% first place votes. Allen probably still retains some true-believer support among the more conservative sites of the blogosphere. Lets see if that holds up.
Whos the new conservative it candidate? Newt! The conservative mantle has shifted to Newt over the last few months. He got a huge boost last month for being all over the Israel-Hezbollah war. Allens implosion has given Newts people a reason to stick around, at least for a while. Vis Numar makes this development the headline, but inaccurately notes that his numbers went from +1% to +40% in a month. That was actually from a poll taken earlier in the year, but it highlights how far Newt has come.
Bottom line: It looks like Newts decision to stay out the race until November of 07 could throw the race into some turmoil, with all the major campaigns calculating what happens if Newt gets in. Hes clearly trying to play kingmaker and anoint the preferred conservative if he doesnt run, and numbers like this suggest he could pull it off.
Giuliani and Romney show positive movement. Theres a consistent pattern of Romney and Giuliani momentum among a few of the bigger blogs participating in the poll. Among RedState readers, Romney moved up a net 10.9% and Giuliani a net 10.8% in acceptability. On RealClearPolitics, Romney moved up 18.9% to Giulianis 12.5%. On Blogs for Bush, Giuliani moved up 22.8% and Romney was up 14.8%.
McCain supporters love Giuliani and Giuliani supporters are pretty fond of Romney handy reference should either of the two offline frontrunners falter.
Men and boys by AcademicElephant Looks like the men are being seperated from the boys--but I'm still having trouble getting excited about any of them.
"I'm kind of old-fashioned. I like to engage my brain before my mouth." Donald Rumsfeld
This, too, shall pass.
George in 2008. Easy.
Well, Allen did make a "not ready for prime time" impression.
Top or bottom of the ticket?
'Bottom line: It looks like Newts decision to stay out the race until November of 07 could throw the race into some turmoil, with all the major campaigns calculating what happens if Newt gets in. Hes clearly trying to play kingmaker and anoint the preferred conservative if he doesnt run, and numbers like this suggest he could pull it off.'
I miss 1980.
Yes, the man bailed out Bill Clinton and is a serial adulterer, would make a great conservative candidate.
Newt can enjoy the buildup if he doesn't decide to run.
Makes sense. RINO scum stick together.
I think Newt's base is pretty much limited to conservative bloggers and news junkies.
He also ended a decades-long domination of Congress by the Democrats, and is the only conservative leader in memory to have the guts to shut down the government. Who else has better credentials and can be trusted not to stick his foot in his mouth?
2 years out, means absolutely NOTHING.
right now I'd say the race is primed for a Jeb Bush or Arnold Schwartznegger to drop in.
IMO the support for Newt is for "conservative candidate To Be Determined".
I think there'a a good chance we'll see a new name emerge, somebody like Jim Gilmore or Mark Sanford.
My take from the various polls noted here is that we are likely to get a 2008 ticket even less attractive to social Conservatives - especially those with strong religious convictions - than even the current administration. I don't know if this portends a third party candidate, or just less enthusiasm at the polls, or something else.
I would happily support Newt.
Newt should read Tom Coburn's book before launching a run. I'm sure all Newt's opponents will.
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