Posted on 09/01/2006 4:01:51 PM PDT by DaveLoneRanger
DENVER - The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team Friday called for a slightly below-average hurricane season with only five hurricanes instead of the seven earlier forecast. It is second time in a month the team had revised downward its forecast.
"Despite the lower predictions, residents living along the U.S. coastline should always be prepared for major storms," forecaster William Gray said. Two of the hurricanes will be intense, the team predicted.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ernesto was scheduled to be downgraded to a rain storm at 11 a.m. EDT, said Frank Lepore of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Hurricane John, meanwhile, was forcing evacuations in the Pacific.
Gray and CSU forecaster Philip Klotzbach last month called for a total of 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin this year, down by two from their prediction May 31. On average, there are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense per year.
"We predict September and October will exhibit characteristics of a more average year based on the activity so far this season and climate signals through August,"' Klotzbach said. "Current conditions in the Atlantic indicate that we will now see a slightly below-average hurricane season with far less activity than was experienced in each of the last two years," he said.
He identified higher levels of West African dust over the Atlantic, and a warmer eastern equatorial Pacific indicating a potential El Nino event this fall, and dryer tropical Atlantic mid-level moisture fields.
The team is still predicting 13 named storms, down from last month's prediction of 15.
The National Hurricane Center last month revised its forecast downward, calling for 12 to 15 named storms with seven to nine hurricanes.
The team predicted September would bring five named storms including three hurricanes, two of which will be major. For October, the team predicted two named storms including one hurricane.
"There is no physical basis for assuming that global hurricane intensity or frequency is necessarily related to global mean surface temperature changes of less than ± 0.5oC."I seemed to remember seeing or reading another article about predictions being lowered.
Global Warming. It's Bush's fault.
How can they do this? I thought because of Global Warming, the number and intensity of hurricanes was increasing.
Where is Al Gore????????
Of course Bush won't allow more hurricanes. It's an Election Year.
Al Gore must really be bummed out.
That's it!!! These guys are NOT allowed in the football pool this year. They'd be wanting to revise thier picks all the time.
How many hurricanes does Colorado get in an average year?
I believe the god of global warming, Algore, has anwered his minions prayers and reduced the number of hurricanes.
Ernesto is right overhead right now. It's a mild but persistant, slightly gusty rainstorm. We've had much worse.
Must be that evil Global Warming again. :rolls eyes:
Our magic 8-ball is broke!
Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! I am the great and powerful . . . uh, oh . . . .
These jerks have had their 15 minutes. Insurance companies used their flatulent bloviations as justification to up everybody's insurance premiums by obscene amounts.
They overplayed their hand, and blew it.
Time for them to STFU, and see if their Colorado neighbors give a shit about their "predictions".
The boys and girls in the MSM have sunk into a total funk over this. The Pulitzers are slipping away from them. It's gotta really stink being them.
Yippee - I can eat that second box of Twinkies in my hurri-kit!!
Conclusive evidence of man-made Global Warming!!!
So, last year they spent much of their time changing their (mystic) predictions in an upward direction to meet the onslaught of hurricanes, this year they spend most of their time downgrading their predictions due to a lack of hurricanes. They would do better with that magic eight ball!
Al Gore must be on suicide watch.
Oh crap...utilizing the contrarian theory...now we are really in for it.
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