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Iran: Why the Secrecy?
Die Welt via Iranvajahan ^ | September 04, 2006

Posted on 09/04/2006 5:55:55 AM PDT by nuconvert

Iran: Why the Secrecy?

Die Welt

welt.de

September 04, 2006

European Union foreign ministers met in Finland, at Lappeenranta, on Saturday to back High Representative Javier Solana's continued discussions with Iran. 'Solana said he would not need extensive sessions with Iran to clarify the remaining questions, but did not provide any timetable nor was one set by the EU Foreign Ministers.'

Britain, France and Germany each received a secret letter in response to the demand that Iran cease producing nuclear fuel. 'Some of the other EU states are growing impatient with the secretive handling of the Iran issue by foreign policy chief Javier Solana and the EU's "big three" ... 22 out of the 25 ministers were not allowed to see a "top secret" 21-page report which Tehran produced last week explaining its position - a document only seen by Mr Solana and the so-called EU-3.'

United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan has just been to Tehran, with its Holocaust cartoon exhibition and proposed Holocaust denial conference. Regarding the uranium enrichment programme, he told Iran they now have two more weeks tacked on to the deadline.

Why is Iran given so much leeway?

Like Russia and China during the Cold War, Iran is being allowed to develop its nuclear capacity because war is not an option. No country is ready to challenge Iran effectively.

Take a look at the published letters from President Mahmoud Ahmadinijad: the letters to President George Bush and to Chancellor Angela Merkel. At best, these are embarrassing, even humorous. But actually they're rather worrying. Their combination of sycophantic flattery, tendentious argument and idiosyncratic construction shows the work of a cunning yet unbalanced mind, an autodictat lost in a fantasy world of unconstrained ambition and hatred.

Ahmadinijad is consciously creating a volatile situation from which to gain maximum advantage for Iran. He's painting himself into a corner, making war inevitable, while the world's leaders are trying their best not to ignore it.

Solana has a theory about the 'logic of war' which he discussed when he visited Israel at the start of the recent Lebanese conflict. He's against it.

Yet the credible threat of war is the stick that must accompany the carrot of peace if diplomacy is to work. The way Solana and Kofi Annan openly recoil from the use of force makes it impossible to present Iran with a robust response to their defiance on nuclear enrichment. Ahmadinijad knows he can continue with impunity.

The European Union and the United Nations are natural havens for appeasers. Anything but war. Today's European ethos is to maintain peace through employment and economic opportunity. The Iranians understand this.

With their secret letters, they have explained to each of their potential opponents individually and separately why they should let Iran follow its chosen course, in each case adjusting the argument to the recipient's situation. Each letter must surely contain the same sort of gibberish we've already seen in those sent earlier.

This makes it impossible to publish their contents. If the public were to realise what Ahmadinijad was writing to their leaders, war would be only a matter of time. So the world's leaders are left humouring Ahmadinijad, hoping he doesn't actually mean what he says but not confident enough in their faith to actually tell us what he's saying.


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: ahmadinejad; ahmadinijad; bombirannow; bombiransoilwells; eu; iran; nukes; un

1 posted on 09/04/2006 5:55:56 AM PDT by nuconvert
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To: nuconvert

He's playing the "divide and conquer" card and the weenies are more than willing to play along.


2 posted on 09/04/2006 5:59:43 AM PDT by BillyBonebrake
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To: nuconvert

European option for war? But who will get all those oil contracts in Iran, not to mention all the profits from nuclear parts?

Surely you can't choose war over commerce. Nothing new here. Europe has no will or desire to even approve toothless sanctions.


3 posted on 09/04/2006 6:00:56 AM PDT by romanesq
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To: nuconvert

"Why the Secrecy?"



Well, DUHHHHH!


4 posted on 09/04/2006 6:02:18 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: nuconvert

Iran is playing the West for the fools it believes us to be.


5 posted on 09/04/2006 6:04:15 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (The Democratic Party will not exist in a few years....we are watching history unfold before us.)
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To: nuconvert

Iran WILL pass off nuclear weapons to terrorist organizations when they are allowed to develop them.

When the western cities start disappearing, let no one be surprised.


6 posted on 09/04/2006 6:05:01 AM PDT by HankReardon
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To: Valin; AdmSmith; odds; freedom44

pong


7 posted on 09/04/2006 6:06:42 AM PDT by nuconvert ([there's a lot of bad people in the pistachio business])
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To: Erik Latranyi

So far they've been on to something.


8 posted on 09/04/2006 6:17:36 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (BTUs are my Beat.)
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To: nuconvert; jeffers; Dajjal
Actually al Qaeda and Ahmadinejad are both inviting us to Islam. However there is a certain competition as to what brand is the best, with aQ threatening not only us, but as well the Shi'ias and even other brands of Sunni Islam. check 20:19 here http://www.lauramansfield.com/j/zawahiri090106.asp

This is Bravo Sierra, but the problem is that so many believes in this so we have to reduce the probability that any of them makes any foolish things. We have to take out their leaders and capabilities.
9 posted on 09/04/2006 6:20:04 AM PDT by AdmSmith
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To: Erik Latranyi

Worse yet, we are encouraging Iran to play us for fools.


10 posted on 09/04/2006 6:28:47 AM PDT by monocle
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To: HankReardon

don't worry about it. its not our problem.

like the pollution we generate today,.... its our childrens and grand childrens(if they make it) problem.

if the problem is closer, then its our issue to deal with. Frankly, I think they are ready to go already. I think they are amassing some staying power.

and they will use it at any price.


11 posted on 09/04/2006 6:37:10 AM PDT by himno hero
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To: HankReardon

don't worry about it. its not our problem.

like the pollution we generate today,.... its our childrens and grand childrens(if they make it) problem.

if the problem is closer, then its our issue to deal with. Frankly, I think they are ready to go already. I think they are amassing some staying power.

and they will use it at any price.


12 posted on 09/04/2006 6:37:12 AM PDT by himno hero
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To: nuconvert

Take a look at the published letters from President Mahmoud Ahmadinijad: the letters to President George Bush and to Chancellor Angela Merkel. At best, these are embarrassing, even humorous. But actually they're rather worrying. Their combination of sycophantic flattery, tendentious argument and idiosyncratic construction shows the work of a cunning yet unbalanced mind, an autodictat lost in a fantasy world of unconstrained ambition and hatred.

When are people (governments) going to take this guy seriously? The problem is (IMO) this guy is a "True Believer". And scary as hell.


13 posted on 09/04/2006 6:43:53 AM PDT by Valin (http://www.irey.com/)
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To: monocle
The longer you delay/deny action... the more it emboldens/solidifies the fazools. The Muslim nations who have been on the sidelines will also warm-up to the call of jihad.
14 posted on 09/04/2006 6:44:43 AM PDT by johnny7 (“And what's Fonzie like? Come on Yolanda... what's Fonzie like?!”)
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To: Valin

"When are people (governments) going to take this guy seriously? The problem is (IMO) this guy is a "True Believer". And scary as hell."

They're so used to threats from the regime, it's "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" again. No one's taking him seriously.
Yes, he's a true believer and scary.


15 posted on 09/04/2006 7:02:55 AM PDT by nuconvert ([there's a lot of bad people in the pistachio business])
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To: nuconvert
Someone should explain to them that by keeping on talking with Amadumyjohn will get them nuked.
16 posted on 09/04/2006 7:11:14 AM PDT by ANGGAPO (LayteGulfBeachClub)
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To: himno hero

what pollution? Where do you see pollution? This is OUR problem! We are our children, never don't that.


17 posted on 09/04/2006 7:30:41 AM PDT by HankReardon
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To: nuconvert; AdmSmith

On the surface, it seems that Russia and China's UNSC veto is a show stopper, making any sanctions impossible. When you look at cause and effect reality, however, you realize that threats to veto are merely a negotiating stance.

Clearly, Russia and China have economic interests with the current Iranian regime, this is the basis of their threatened veto.

However, in reality, they face an either/or choice. Either they go along with sanctions, and lose some of the economic back and forth with the Mullahs, or else they veto sanctions, the US institutes unilateral regime change in Iran, and Russia and China lose ALL of their economic interests with the current regime. This is the same reason France signed on to Resolution 1441 re Iraq, against all expectations.

The deadline for cessation of Iran's uranium enrichment came and went, Russia and China threatened to veto, and here we have the US Ambassador to the UN, laying the military card back on the table in open view. No coincidence.

Just as with Iraq, the UN palaver will follow its course, and will either end the Iranian quest for nuclear weapons, or else it will give way to a unilateral military solution which will end the Iranian quest for nuclear weapons.

Iran's only option in all this is to hasten the demise of their current regime by offensive action, or sit back and wait for us to establish causus belli by exhausting UN options.

After the November elections, you will see the US position harden, "stop or else". If you watch closely and are lucky, you will note signs of increasing readiness.

After the turn of the year, you will see call-ups to match warm bodies with pre-positioned equipment, and the US will institute the endgame.

For now, all of the obvious maneuver will take place in the UN.


18 posted on 09/04/2006 7:56:57 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: jeffers
Special Dispatch-Iran September 1, 2006 No. 1275

Iranian Nuclear Chief Mohammad Sa'idi Explains Why Iran Produces Heavy Water: Drinking It Helps Fight Cancer and AIDS

"Patients... Consume [Heavy Water] Daily to Heal Their Diseases"

Interviewer: "You just said that in some cases, heavy water can even be used for drinking."

Mohammad Sa'idi: "Yes."

Interviewer: "Could you elaborate on this?"

Mohammad Sa'idi: "One of the products of heavy water is depleted deuterium. As you know, in an environment with depleted deuterium, the reception of cancer cells and of the AIDS viruses is disrupted. Since this reception is disrupted, the cells are gradually expelled from the body. Obviously, one glass of depleted deuterium will not expel or cure the cancer or eliminate the AIDS. We are talking about a certain period of time. In many countries that deal with these diseases, patients use this kind of water instead of regular water, and consume it daily in order to heal their diseases.

"In other words, the issue of heavy water has to do with matters of life and death, in many cases. One of the reasons that led us to produce heavy water was to use it for agricultural... medical purposes, and especially for industrial purposes in our country."

[...]

"When You Commit to Using Nuclear Technology for Peaceful Purposes Only, This Includes All the Nuclear Issues"

Mohammad Sa'idi: "There is no connection whatsoever between heavy water and plutonium. As I have said, the nuclear industry can be used for diverse purposes."

Interviewer: "Right."

Mohammad Sa'idi: "Some countries possess this kind of weapon, and use this technology to make weapons. There are also countries which are NPT members, and which accepted the NPT [regulations], and they have therefore committed themselves to use this technology for peaceful purposes only. When you commit to using nuclear technology for peaceful purposes only, this includes all the nuclear issues. Let's say tomorrow you build a heavy-water research reactor, OK? This research reactor uses fuel that has the plutonium element as well. We have declared to the world that Iran's nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, and the IAEA can supervise it fully. Now, when we are in the process of building this reactor – the concrete has just been poured and the walls are being installed – the IAEA is present, so of course it will be present when the reactor becomes operational. When it becomes operational the inspectors will definitely be there. Just like they supervise our facilities at Natanz, they will supervise these facilities, so that there will be no deviation in a certain direction."

[...]

"The Heavy-Water Research Reactors Have Slightly Simpler Technology [Than Light-Water Reactors]"

Mohammad Sa'idi: "You may ask why we pursued a heavy-water research reactor, rather than a light-water reactor. This is a [legitimate] question, which deserves an answer. [It is] because this involves simpler technology. The heavy-water research reactors have slightly simpler technology. In what way are they simpler? Light-water research reactors require fuel that is 20% enriched. Do you follow, Mr. Emami?"

Interviewer: "Yes."

Mohammad Sa'idi: "It requires 20% enriched fuel. Heavy-water research reactors do not require enriched fuel. What you need is not 3.5% [enriched uranium], but UO2, which is produced in the [UCF] facilities at Esfahan. These products are produced at Esfahan, and heavy water is currently produced at Khondab in Arak, so this technology is readily available to us. All we need to do is build the reactor. The fuel is available, and so is the moderator and the cooler, so the reactor can become productive very quickly. Let's say you build a light-water research reactor, OK? As soon as you want to move from 5% to 20% – in other words, to produce enriched fuel – the same countries that are shouting that there is plutonium in heavy-water reactors will shout and say that Iran has moved from 5% to 20% enrichment."

[...]

Interviewer: "With regard to Natanz, the 164 centrifuges continue to operate. When will we reach the 3,000 we announced?"

Mohammad Sa'idi: "We are now carrying out work at the R&D stage. A plan has been drawn up, and we are following it."

Interviewer: "When do you think we will reach 3,000 [centrifuges]?"

Mohammad Sa'idi: "According to the plan."

"We are Planning a Light-Water Power Reactor With a Capacity of 360 Megawatt"

Interviewer: "Thank you. I had other questions... We have done all these activities, so why aren't we building a [nuclear] power plant?"

Mohammad Sa'idi: "Of course we are. One of the important issues that may arise in the future for our dear people is that in order to complete this technological process in the Islamic Republic of Iran, we have begun designing a power reactor for the production of electricity. When I say 'power,' I mean production of electricity. This is a power reactor with a capacity of 360 megawatt. We are working towards an Iranian-made reactor. Adjacent to the heavy-water reactor that we are building, and which is also Iranian-made, we are planning a light-water power reactor with a capacity of 360 megawatt, which will serve as a basis for construction of [other] power reactors in the future."

http://www.memri.org/bin/opener_latest.cgi?ID=SD127506

comment: This shows that they are crazy, how can a deputy of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization be so ignorant about the medical effect of heavy water?

The hydrogen bond with deuterium is slightly stronger than for ordinary hydrogen, and this will cause disruption of many cell functions, but only if the fraction of heavy water is very high. That it should be specific for HIV is rubbish.

The remaining part indicates that they are planning to produce weapon grade plutonium.
19 posted on 09/04/2006 8:29:00 AM PDT by AdmSmith
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To: HankReardon

then bessst be dealing the Iranian situation with the same vigor


20 posted on 09/04/2006 8:41:06 AM PDT by himno hero
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To: jeffers

On the surface, it seems that Russia and China's UNSC veto is a show stopper, making any sanctions impossible

Say they don't veto it. I'm forced to ask..so what. It's not like it really means anything anyway. At the end of the day the powers that be will do what they are going to do no matter what the UN does or (more likely) doesn't do.


21 posted on 09/04/2006 9:00:48 AM PDT by Valin (http://www.irey.com/)
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To: himno hero
like the pollution we generate today

What are you talking about? Tell us about the pollution. Please be specific.

22 posted on 09/04/2006 12:10:01 PM PDT by corkoman
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To: nuconvert

The Alliance of Life vs. The Axis of Death

How mankind’s latest challenge is going to turn out we don't know yet, that it is going to be a long war is already clear. It reminds me of the Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times". Which of us thought it would be us living those interesting times. It was only recently that some bozo was declaring the end of history, yea right! And let’s get rid of the patent office as well.

What follows is an idea that I have been posting everywhere. I believe this is the campaign the Allies of Life should chose to fight next, in what many are now calling World War IV.

It is said that Captains should study Tactics, and Generals should study Logistics.

Most of the Terrorists are being paid to fight, if this pay, training, and supply was interdicted, many Terrorists would have to go find work. At the present time, Iran is the largest funding source in the world for Terrorists, contributing as much as $1 billion in money, arms, and training every year.

I believe the following would significantly improve our strategic position in the War on Terror.

We should destroy the Iranian oil industry. By Bombing all oil transportation facilities, pipelines, storage tanks, tanker trucks, rolling stock, refinery’s etc… we can cripple the funding of numerous terrorist organizations, Hezbollah, Hama’s, Sadr’s militia, Syria, as well as make it more difficult for Iran to buy missiles and such from North Korea, China, and Russia.
It would remove Iran’s threat that if we attack they will shut off the oil. Making the threat ridiculous and demonstrating that they are a single product state and without oil, and no other product that the world wants, they are nothing. Additionally, by declaring that we will destroy any reconstituting oil industry as long as the Mullacracy remains in charge, we can focus the Iranian’s blame for the situation, on the Theocracy and their support of Terrorism.
This will also bring home to all the other oil producing countries like Venezuela, Libya, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, etc… that they are very vulnerable to the same tactic, and they better start to cooperate, or else.
In addition, this will gain us time for the Iraqi’s to stand on their own, and free up troops we would need if we have to go into Iran, North Korea or somewhere else. (At the moment I don't think we could, or should put boots on the ground in Iran)
Sure the price of gas will rise, but this will also demonstrate to the world that the USA is not in Iraq for the Oil, and the onus can be shifted on to the Democrats for not allowing more domestic production.
“It’s not the control of the spice but the power to destroy the spice that is the real power. [From Dune]”

It has recently been said that the nuclear production facilities in Iran are so deep underground that we can’t reach them with conventional weapons. Perhaps so, but maybe we can starve those facilities of funds. Nuclear weapons are terribly expensive to build, and if Iran now needs all its money to repair vital life supporting infrastructure, it may have to slow or stop its attempt to build an atomic bomb.
Finally, Iran is a state sponsor of Terrorists, it must be punished, and it must be seen to be punished. Iran’s continued sponsorship of terror is a slap in America’s and President Bush’s face, and it must be answered.

The following was written in response to an objection I received about having to pay more for fuel if this strategy was followed.

I think you are overly concerned about the economic considerations, and not concerned enough about the need to prosecute the War on Terror to the utmost.
1. The US has a full Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 700 million Barrels, and we aren't the only nation with an SPR. What good is it if you never use it? The average price paid on that 700 million barrels was $27, so the nation would actually make a profit selling it now.
2. The only reason the US isn't energy independent now is because of political factors. We have 2 Trillion Barrels of oil trapped in oil shale (see www.oiltechinc.com). A technique now exists to turn any organic matter into fuel (see www.powerenergy.com). The US would and should be using much more nuclear power, (if it wasn't for the Ecofreaks we would be now). There are also many areas in the US that are now off limits to drilling. All it takes is the political will to develop all of these. Higher fuel prices will provide that political pressure.
3. Iran is using diplomatic processes, just like the Nazi's before them. So talking to them is a waste of our time, and just gives them time to develop nukes.
4. Iran subsidizes gas at $.10 a gallon, so by destroying the Iranian oil industry not only do we instantly remove 20% of their GDP. We put them all on foot, and in the dark.
5. The mullahs want to take their world back to the 7th century, we should assist them. By going medieval on Iran, we would serve notice on every Authoritarian regime whose only support is oil, that their days are numbered.
6. My recommended solution for American energy independence: a combination of tax breaks, loan guarantees (all energy development is capital intensive), and the government purchase of the patents held by Oil-Tech, and Power Energy, and making them open source.

The following further expands on the idea.

Iran exports 2.5 million barrels of oil a day, Iranian as well as the rest of the Persian Gulf oil producers, produce what is called heavy sour crude which typically sells for ~20% less than the benchmark sweet light crude quoted on the spot markets. So, with that understanding we can roughly calculate the gross income Iran’s economy generates from oil exports. At a price of $75 Barrel Iran will get 80% of that price for its low grade crude, or $60. $60 x $2.5 million barrels x 365 days = $54.75 billion. Now from the CIA world fact book we can see that Iran has a GNP of $564 billion. So by destroying Iran’s oil industry their GDP is cut by 10% just from the lost exports. But, the damage is much deeper than that, Iran subsidizes gasoline at $.10 a gallon and Iran consumes 1.425 million barrels of oil a day. With the oil industry destroyed the cars, trucks, trains, and power plants no longer run. That means no machinery, no electricity, and no modern economy. I can’t estimate what Iran’s GDP would decline to, but even the poorest nation on earth still has running cars and electricity. I think much of the population would either revolt or start walking for the boarders. They couldn’t import oil because we would destroy tankers, pipelines, and rolling stock. They couldn’t attack us in Iraq either, because with out gas they can’t logistically supply an attacking army. We on the other hand could perform a ground attack anywhere and they would be incapable of maneuvering in response. Not that I think we should do a ground attack, I don’t, but we would be well positioned if we needed to (airborne assaults on nuclear facilities).

"Will the U.S. be willing to take unilateral action of this magnitude? At this stage, I don’t believe that the EU will be supporting it. Nor will China or Russia."

You are right of course; the US will have to do this alone. We are the only ones with the Air Forces necessary to accomplish it. All it will take is the President ordering it done, the bombing will take less than 30 days and cost far less than the $50 billion it is going to cost the Iranians in direct loss of export dollars.

"The U.S. would need to ensure that there are contingency plans, prior to any action, in terms of the impact that such action would have on the price of oil and public opinion in the U.S., etc. Also, how long would it take to devise and implement such contingency plans?"

The US has a strategic petroleum reserve that is full (700 million barrels) and while we are using that we can do a crash program of developing oil shale, alcohol, and domestic drilling off shore and in Alaska where politics has prevented development before. As far as public opinion goes, much of Bush's loss of political support is due to his failure to prosecute the War on Terror to the utmost. Americans believe that if you have to go to war you must fight with everything you've got and get it over as soon as possible. Bush has not been doing this, he knows Iran, and Syria are both supporting terrorists and has done nothing. So if Bush just went to war with Iran and Syria his support will most likely rebound back up above 50%.

"I think the U.S. is and will be very capable of destroying major oil fields, pipelines, tankers, etc. as required. But I also think the U.S. will need to have a next step(s) after air strikes. These next steps include, for example, ensuring damage control within Iran, law and order issues within Iran, minimizing potential terrorist attacks that these air strikes will potentially lead to, and ensuring that there will be an interim government to take over from the mullahs immediately after they are toppled and so on… IMO, these must be planned out in detail before any military action. Bearing in mind that what happens in Iran will most definitely have a significant impact on the region and the world."

I believe that the mullacracy will take awhile to collapse. So at the same time America starts the war it announces that a New Iranian Army will be trained, Paid, and equipped in Iraq to take over Iran as soon as it is ready and Iranians are encouraged to apply. If we did this US Army forces may never be needed in Iran, or if they are, just for a few Thunder Runs to topple the Mullahs, with the New Iranian Army mopping up and taking over. Done this way we could write the Iranian constitution and have the new army swear to it before they are allowed to join, this would make starting a new government much quicker.

"Lastly, will the current U.S. Administration be willing to embark on such major initiative as per your proposal before November or even whilst the current administration is in office?"

This I don't know, but I think it is at least possible. Bush has stepped so far away from the Bush Doctrine, by that I mean he still talks the talk, but no longer walks the walk. Some have said that he is just giving the EU and Iran enough rope to hang themselves, if so Iran's announcement that economic incentives wouldn't stop them from enriching Uranium may have been the sound of the trap door dropping. We will see in the days ahead.


23 posted on 09/04/2006 3:03:20 PM PDT by Eagle74 (From time to time the tree of liberty must be watered with the blood of tyrants and patriots)
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