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New evidence shows Antarctica has warmed in last 150 years (Despite cooling in 90's!)
EurekAlert! News ^ | September 5, 2006 | University of Washington

Posted on 09/05/2006 8:25:01 AM PDT by DaveLoneRanger

Despite recent indications that Antarctica cooled considerably during the 1990s, new research suggests that the world's iciest continent has been getting gradually warmer for the last 150 years, a trend not identifiable in the short meteorological records and masked at the end of the 20th century by large temperature variations.

Numerous ice cores collected from five areas allowed scientists to reconstruct a temperature record that shows average Antarctic temperatures have risen about two-tenths of a degree Celsius, or about one-third of a degree Fahrenheit, in 150 years. That might not sound like much, but the overall increase includes a recorded temperature decline of nearly 1 degree in the 1990s, said David Schneider, a University of Washington postdoctoral researcher in Earth and space sciences.

"Even if you account for the cooling in the '90s, we still see that two-tenths of a degree increase from the middle of the 1800s to the end of the 20th century," said Schneider, the lead author of a paper detailing the work published Aug. 30 in Geophysical Research Letters.

The main reason that Antarctica appears to have cooled during the 1990s is that a natural phenomenon called the Antarctic Oscillation, or Southern Annular Mode, was largely in its positive phase during that time. The Antarctic Oscillation is so named because atmospheric pressure in far southern latitudes randomly oscillates between positive and negative phases. During the positive phase, a vortex of wind is tightly focused on the polar region and prevents warmer air from mixing with the frigid polar air, which keeps Antarctica colder.

Typically the Antarctic Oscillation alternates between phases about every month. But in the 1990s the positive phase occurred much more often, Schneider said. Without the influence of the Antarctic Oscillation, he said, it is likely the Antarctic would show the same kind of warming as the rest of the Southern Hemisphere. Before 1975, Antarctica appears to have warmed at about the same rate as the rest of the hemisphere, about 0.25 degree C per century. But since 1975, while the Antarctic showed overall cooling, the Southern Hemisphere has warmed at a rate of about 1.4 degrees per century.

"The second half of the 20th century is marked by really large variability. The periods of cooling correspond with a very strong positive Antarctic Oscillation," Schneider said. "The caution is that we don't fully understand the feedbacks between overall climate warming and the Antarctic Oscillation. But having the 200-year record is what convinces us that there is a relationship between Southern Hemisphere temperature changes and Antarctic temperature changes."

He noted that other research has suggested that ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere is keeping the Antarctic Oscillation in its positive phase for longer periods.

Schneider began the work for his doctoral thesis and completed it as a post-doctoral researcher. Co-authors of the paper are Eric Steig, Schneider's thesis adviser, and Cecilia Bitz of the UW; Tas van Ommen of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre in Australia, Daniel Dixon and Paul Mayewski of the University of Maine and Julie Jones of the Institute for Coastal Research in Germany. The work was funded primarily by the National Science Foundation, with additional funding from the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research and Australia's Cooperative Research Centre Program.

Reconstructing an annual temperature record for two centuries was complicated by the fact that Antarctica is the world's driest continent, so while annual snowfall for thousands of years is preserved in glacial ice there often isn't much snowfall in a given year. For this work, the scientists collected ice cores from five areas that typically receive at least 15 inches of snow per year, which provided more substance from each year for them to examine. They studied oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in the cores to develop the first reconstruction of Antarctic temperature records for the last 150 years.

"We have pretty good confidence that we're right, though some of the details might have to be refined," Schneider said.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Extended News; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: alarmism; alarmists; climatechange; environment; environmentalists; globalwarming; globalwarmingping; globullwarming; greenhousegas; panic; pollution; skyisfalling
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Cooling in the 90's? Who's been talking about that before now?
1 posted on 09/05/2006 8:25:04 AM PDT by DaveLoneRanger
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To: texianyankee; JayB; ElkGroveDan; markman46; palmer; Bahbah; Paradox; FOG724; Mike Darancette; ...
(((GLOBAL WARMING PING)))



You have been pinged because of your interest in environmentalism, alarmist wackos, mainstream media doomsday hype, and other issues pertaining to global warming. Freep-mail me to get on or off.
Add me! / Remove me
Please ping me to all note-worthy threads on global warming.

2 posted on 09/05/2006 8:25:48 AM PDT by DaveLoneRanger ("Good guys" aren't always "nice guys".)
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To: DaveLoneRanger

3 posted on 09/05/2006 8:29:37 AM PDT by Fighting Irish (Béagán agus a rá go maith)
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To: DaveLoneRanger

Wow. After the end of the Little Ice Age, there was warming. Truly staggering.


4 posted on 09/05/2006 8:30:39 AM PDT by orionblamblam (I'm interested in science and preventing its corruption, so here I am.)
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To: DaveLoneRanger

So it all started when the pioneers started coming west in 1854 in their SUV's ?


5 posted on 09/05/2006 8:32:39 AM PDT by Mogollon
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To: DaveLoneRanger

This is caused by lava vents in the ocean. Go to http://www.iceagenow.com


6 posted on 09/05/2006 8:34:12 AM PDT by Perdogg (My friends say I should act my age - What's my age again?)
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To: DaveLoneRanger
......And!!!!

What we need is a manufacturing capability to provde a penguins with parasols. ..because AllGore invented the Parasol!

We must perserver! "Operation Parasol" will preserve the pristine penguin premises!

(Three Ps in a row!)

7 posted on 09/05/2006 8:34:12 AM PDT by Young Werther
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To: DaveLoneRanger

It was the use of all those oil lamps in New England that started the warming in 1800!

No more oil lamps!


8 posted on 09/05/2006 8:35:25 AM PDT by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: DaveLoneRanger
Antarctica is very dry.
Much of Antarctica receives very little snow.
In order the maximize the amount of data to study, they selected 5 spots that get at least 15 inches of snow a year.

Mmmmmmmmmm.

I'm planning to study the Sahara Desert. I'm going to center my study on those regions that get at least 15 inches of rain a year. My conclusions about life the desert should be very insightful.

9 posted on 09/05/2006 8:35:58 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (The broken wall, the burning roof and tower. And Agamemnon dead.)
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To: Young Werther

TWO-TENTHS OF A DEGREE IN 150 YEARS. That is .001 degree per year, that means that in another 850 years the temperature will have risen by ONE WHOLE DEGREE. We are doomed.


10 posted on 09/05/2006 8:41:45 AM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages - In Honor of Standing Wolf)
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To: ClearCase_guy
Mmmmmmmmmm.

Indeed. Let's base our scientific analysis of an entire continent on data we know are not representative.
11 posted on 09/05/2006 8:43:28 AM PDT by Gorjus
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To: DaveLoneRanger

We are DOOMED I tell you!!

DOOMED!!!


12 posted on 09/05/2006 8:44:13 AM PDT by Bean Counter (Stout hearts!!)
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To: DaveLoneRanger

Pinatubo in 1991 cooled the earth about 1 degree worldwide.

It also made for spectacular sunsets for about 1-2 years with a fabulous red color and purple twilights.


13 posted on 09/05/2006 8:44:49 AM PDT by staytrue
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To: DaveLoneRanger

We must save energy. I propose that Democrats not be allowed to drive any more. I'm sure they'd be glad to make the sacrifice in order to save the planet. /s


14 posted on 09/05/2006 8:45:54 AM PDT by American Quilter (You can't negotiate with people who are dedicated to your destruction.)
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To: ClearCase_guy

Yep --

Folks 'forget' that the northern and southern artic regions are 'deserts' when it comes to precip.

Very odd that these guys would choose to generalize climatic trends by using datd from anomalous regions.


Can you say "bad science?"


15 posted on 09/05/2006 8:48:22 AM PDT by Blueflag (Res ipsa loquitor)
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To: <1/1,000,000th%
But what'll I do with all these Whale carcasses?
16 posted on 09/05/2006 8:50:35 AM PDT by massgopguy (massgopguy)
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To: DaveLoneRanger

Antarctica slightly warmer! Women and minorities hardest hit!


17 posted on 09/05/2006 8:51:08 AM PDT by Gordongekko909 (I know. Let's cut his WHOLE BODY off.)
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To: <1/1,000,000th%

Worse yet. They were whale oil lamps. Save The Whales and Stop Global Warming!!! It brings a tear to Earth First ecoterrorists.


18 posted on 09/05/2006 8:51:31 AM PDT by lastchance (Hug your babies.)
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To: Mogollon

Naw, it was all those horse farts that did it


19 posted on 09/05/2006 8:57:25 AM PDT by Armigerous ( Non permitte illegitimi te carborundum- "Don't let the bastards grind you down")
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To: ClearCase_guy
Antarctica is very dry. Much of Antarctica receives very little snow. In order the maximize the amount of data to study, they selected 5 spots that get at least 15 inches of snow a year. Mmmmmmmmmm.

I'm planning to study the Sahara Desert. I'm going to center my study on those regions that get at least 15 inches of rain a year. My conclusions about life the desert should be very insightful.

You need to scale back your study to about 2.5 inches of rain per year to account for the fluff factor.

20 posted on 09/05/2006 8:58:47 AM PDT by LoneRangerMassachusetts (The only good Mullah is a dead Mullah. The only good Mosque is the one that used to be there.)
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