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Cantwell leads by 17 in Washington over McGavick (Rasmussen)
Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections ^ | 6 September 2006 | Dave Leip

Posted on 09/08/2006 12:15:26 PM PDT by okstate

This is a Rasmussen poll that's still on the premium portion of Rasmussen's site but got leaked to Leip's site.

Cantwell 52%
McGavick 35%
Undecided 13%

MOE +/- 4.5 percent from a sample of 500 likely voters.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Washington
KEYWORDS: 2006polls; cantwell; electionscongress; mcgavick; poll; polls; rasmussen
Should be released publicly in a couple of days. The teaser on Rasmussen's site reads

"Washington Senate The fallout from Mike McGavick's (R) recent drunk driving confession has had an impact in our latest poll. See how McGavick now fares against incumbent Maria Cantwell (D)."

Last week SurveyUSA released two different polls from Washington, both of which showed 17 point leads for Cantwell.

Previously Rasmussen found a six point lead for Cantwell, on August 15th.

Taking all this into account, I think it's clear that we should now focus more on New Jersey, Maryland, Michigan, and even Minnesota over Washington.

However, Cantwell is now potentially in trouble over connections to lobbyists and their money. Will be interesting to see what happens.

1 posted on 09/08/2006 12:15:27 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

Not exactly a dogfight, is it?

Is the lobbyist story easy to understand; or is it filled with a lot of gobbble-dee-gok?


2 posted on 09/08/2006 12:18:06 PM PDT by RexBeach (Will Rogers Never Met Bill Clinton.)
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To: RexBeach

Not sure yet. I haven't had enough time to digest it all.

If it turns out to be a major scandal though, this campaign could get really dirty. Nothing in politics is more fun than DUIs and corruption :)


3 posted on 09/08/2006 12:20:27 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

I dont know the details of McGavick's DUI incident. Was it serious, or a minor incident like GWB had when they pulled that dirty trick on him days before the 2000 election?

In any case, WA seems to be moving so far to the left that I never had high hopes for this seat. I think the GOP has a better (if small) chance in MI, MN, MD, and NJ.


4 posted on 09/08/2006 12:27:03 PM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: okstate
McGavick was closing the gap until this DUI dirty laundry got tossed out. SayWA politics has gotten really dirty and corrupt. If you're a 'Pub, you can count on any and all skeletons coming out. The WA 'Rat machine will make sure of it.

That said, NeerDoWell probably has this one in the bag. The only "challenger" who polled well against her was Rossi, and he passed on the race (as well he should have given his circumstances).

5 posted on 09/08/2006 12:31:47 PM PDT by chimera
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To: okstate

My sympathies to Washington freepers. It must be so frustrating.


6 posted on 09/08/2006 12:33:03 PM PDT by spyone
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To: chimera
What were his circumstances for not running?

This seat could have been his for the taking.

7 posted on 09/08/2006 12:34:52 PM PDT by StAnDeliver
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To: StAnDeliver
Dino Rossi gave two very good reasons for not wanting to take on CantDoWell. First, he has a young family and did not want to disrupt his life with them on the off chance that he might have won the Senate seat. If he had, he'd be faced with the choice of moving the family to the cesspool that DC has become, or trying to live a bicoastal, long-distance life. Either is not a good choice when you have young children in school.

Second, Rossi has made it clear that he wants to change things in his home state of WA. After 20+ years of ruinous 'Rat rule in Olympia, that is a priority goal for anyone with any sense of loyalty to one's state. Being Governor is the best way to do that, not Senator. Being a junior Senator from a state with little political clout in DC, 3000 miles from home, dealing with arcane national issues, one vote out of a hundred, probably has little influence on how things go in your state. Senators do not pick heads of state agencies, draft budgets and establish state budget priorities, or work with the state legislature on issues of state-level importance. Governors do.

While he may not have said so in words, my impression is that Rossi wants to be Governor, not Senator, and views the Senate seat as kind of a second-rate consolation prize. He won the governorship of Washington in any honest accounting of the election results (there were two of them) and had it stolen in a brazen, in-your-face theft by the 'Rats. Why should he settle for a do-nothing consolation prize when he legitimately won the office he wants to hold?

Finally, again although unspoken, it is probably Rossi's impression that CantDoWell is going to be re-elected anyway. She has had six years to get entrenched and fix things up with the liberal (by and large) electorate of SayWa (the home of Osama Bin Murray, for cripes' sake). Fraudoire was a lousy campaigner and didn't generate a lot of enthusiasm. StupidWell will not make that mistake.

8 posted on 09/08/2006 12:49:00 PM PDT by chimera
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To: okstate


Well, all I've got to say is that Republican voters should not allow the Socialist media to psych them out. The last general should have built a roaring fire under them to get out the vote in droves this time. Just don't ignore the shocking pink slip included in the ballot warning you to declare your party before turning to the Republican ballot sheet or your vote will not be counted in Clark County. I don't know about the rest of the state.


9 posted on 09/08/2006 12:54:42 PM PDT by Paperdoll (Vote AGAINST Cantwell!)
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To: Paperdoll

"Just don't ignore the shocking pink slip included in the ballot warning you to declare your party before turning to the Republican ballot sheet or your vote will not be counted in Clark County."

Maybe I should open my ballot up. What does this mean, how do I declare?


10 posted on 09/08/2006 1:21:48 PM PDT by mockingbyrd
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To: okstate

This boob gets a DUI and the guy in Conn gets caught up in a gambling scandal

Ain't politicians great


11 posted on 09/08/2006 1:24:08 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: mockingbyrd

There is a place to indicate which party you are affiliated with. It is self explanatory if one takes the time to read all instructions before voting. By all means, open your ballot, mb. As I said, I do not know if all Washington counties have this, but Clark County does.


12 posted on 09/08/2006 1:29:58 PM PDT by Paperdoll (Vote AGAINST Cantwell!)
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To: Paperdoll

Oh, I was planning on voting. I just wait until election day and drive it to a drop off point. I refuse to mail my ballot in, I am generally not paranoid but just to much could go wrong. Since I live in Clark County, this peaked my interest.

Thanks for the heads up.


13 posted on 09/08/2006 1:42:09 PM PDT by mockingbyrd
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To: okstate

Hate it that the Libs control beautiful Wa. state...

and the 'Rats truly stole the Gov. election in 2004 from Rossi.


14 posted on 09/08/2006 2:05:38 PM PDT by tflabo (Take authority that's ours)
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To: chimera

"If he had, he'd be faced with the choice of moving the family to the cesspool that DC has become,"

Dont see any real diff between the cesspool of W WA and DC. Thats really splitting hairs...


15 posted on 09/08/2006 2:10:02 PM PDT by 556x45
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To: sionnsar

ping


16 posted on 09/08/2006 2:24:27 PM PDT by bigfootbob
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To: Libertina; trustandhope; lonevoice; Paperdoll; Maynerd; Bobsvainbabblings; moneypenny; ...
Thanks to bigfootbob for the ping.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting
Say WA? Evergreen State ping

FReepmail sionnsar if you want on or off this ping list.

Ping sionnsar if you see a Washington state related thread.

17 posted on 09/08/2006 4:58:54 PM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† | Iran Azadi | SONY: 5yst3m 0wn3d, N0t Y0urs | UN: Useless Nations)
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To: sionnsar
Will anyone care about this: Cantwell helped push funding for clients of lobbyist who owes her money?

Could use a few Freeper comments on that article.


18 posted on 09/08/2006 5:36:16 PM PDT by They'reGone2000 (<---And it's Bush's fault)
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Comment #19 Removed by Moderator

To: okstate
Maria Cantwell may be the least qualified United States Senator in the history of the republic (and that's saying a lot).

For the Republicans to be unable to defeat her is mind-boggling.

20 posted on 09/08/2006 6:06:02 PM PDT by Jim Noble (Something is happening here but you don't know what it is, do you, Mr. Jones?)
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To: Jim Noble
For the Republicans to be unable to defeat her is mind-boggling.

For the WSRinoP to be unable to defeat her is... business as usual.

21 posted on 09/08/2006 6:08:32 PM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† | Iran Azadi | SONY: 5yst3m 0wn3d, N0t Y0urs | UN: Useless Nations)
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To: Baynative
The pollsters and media miss the irony in the fact that drunk driving means nothing to a democrat ...

Nor do they care either as it applies to rats

22 posted on 09/08/2006 6:21:18 PM PDT by Horatio Gates (The greener grass on the other side of the fence is artificial turf)
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To: Baynative
Little Danny Westneat, lib columnist for the Seattle Times got his 1st and likely only atta boy (after a number of WTF were ya thinking emails) from me yesterday, for being the only keyboard in the bowels of hell that recognized that "being too late on a yellow" and "cited" for DUI were euphemisms for "running a red" and "arrested".

He even chided perpetual angryman Jameison for not getting it, and suggested that maybe it's time to move on to something that matters.

Oddly, this is the only time he hasn't responded.

Maybe I scared him by being civil - or maybe he's packing?

Whatever his reasons for being sensible, it's pretty obvious what McGavick's reason was for giving it up now, and that's the same reason for all the way out in left field overplayed drama on this thing; the driveby media in this state were well aware of the 13y/o DUI, and they are PISSED that they can't spring it a week before the general election.

23 posted on 09/08/2006 6:42:03 PM PDT by 4woodenboats (The GOP was created by those opposed to Southern Democrat Plantation Slavery...)
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To: sionnsar

Ohhhhh.

Watch the primary vote. Check the number of R ballots counted against McGavick's total. I don't think supporters will like the number.

I personally know R's who left McGavick and their RINO legislator blank just for that reason.


24 posted on 09/08/2006 7:22:24 PM PDT by bigfootbob
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To: They'reGone2000

Not very helpful. Details are confusing. Will have no effect.


25 posted on 09/08/2006 7:24:52 PM PDT by nwrep
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To: spyone
My sympathies to Washington freepers. It must be so frustrating.

You have no idea....
26 posted on 09/08/2006 7:38:52 PM PDT by Zarro (We Support Governor Rossi)
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To: tflabo

They control our largest city and its metroplex. Washingtonians outside of that are reasonable and generally mirror the center/right sentiments of the rest of the nation.


27 posted on 09/08/2006 11:21:55 PM PDT by Lexinom
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To: Jim Noble

Even less qualified than WA's other senator???


28 posted on 09/08/2006 11:23:23 PM PDT by Lexinom
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To: okstate

Take 10% off the top for election fraud.


29 posted on 09/08/2006 11:30:58 PM PDT by Lancer_N3502A
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To: Jim Noble

You don't realize how we have been invaded by Liberals up here.

I regularly email her, Murray and Brian Baird, our Reps here. Murray and Baird have always returned by emails expressing their views and reasons (often in disagreement with mine, but cordial anyway). Cantwell has never returned an email since she has been in office.

She is currently running a TV ad bashing Bush over Border Security and saying how strong she is on it. Somehow, I doubt she is all that strong on it, but will be viewing her voting record soon.


30 posted on 09/08/2006 11:41:47 PM PDT by DakotaRed (The legacy of the left, "Screw you, I got mine.")
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To: Paperdoll
The last general should have built a roaring fire under them to get out the vote in droves this time.

Hah! In WA?? The acronym for the Washington State Republican Party is WSRinoP. It's run by incompetents.

31 posted on 09/09/2006 7:52:52 AM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† | Iran Azadi | SONY: 5yst3m 0wn3d, N0t Y0urs | UN: Useless Nations)
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To: bigfootbob
I personally know R's who left McGavick and their RINO legislator blank just for that reason.

Well, I don't know, then I guess they can hand the election to NeerDoWell. What good would that do?

WA politics seems to be a lot like the Northeast. A "true" (i.e., dyed-in-the-wool ideologue) conservative won't win the general election. As I recall a cycle or two ago they ran a "true conservative" for Governor, Carlson. What was it, like a 70-30 slaughter, or some such blowout.

They ran a "moderate-conservative" the last time and won (Rossi). The 'Rats had to "find" so-called "lost" ballots in King Co. nine separate times to finally install Fraudoire in the Governor's office. They ran a conservative (Nethercutt) against Osama Bin Murray and he got creamed by double digits. Distasteful as it might be, a "true conservative" simply won't pull more than 30-40 of the vote in a statewide race in WA.

32 posted on 09/09/2006 12:13:37 PM PDT by chimera
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To: TNCMAXQ

He was arrested but never charged.


33 posted on 09/09/2006 12:15:37 PM PDT by ShandaLear (So there!)
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To: spyone

Hey, the election isn't over yet. No giving up until the votes are counted. A lot can happen in the next 8 weeks. Cantwell has a nasty little scandal of her own hanging over her head.


34 posted on 09/09/2006 12:16:36 PM PDT by ShandaLear (So there!)
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To: chimera
First of all, if you lived here, you'd see McGavick is going out of his way to alienate the base before he's got them solidly in his camp. Actually, I'm getting ahead of myself, McGavick from day one, has been the establishment candidate.

He was SELECTED in a smoky backroom deal with a former State Republican Chairman who's piss poor leadership helped the obvious fraudulent gubernatorial election challenge to be lost in court by hiring crony attorney's instead of top notch litigators. The former chair resigned 5 months later in shame.

The underhanded way he was sold to the state committee, violation of established pre-primary endorsement rules by the state party and his constant braggadocio about being in no ways beholden to the Republican philosophy in the media has taken a toll on the base. There's more, but it's inside politics stuff. Take my word for it, his campaign model is flawed.

The base who have chosen to make a primary vote statement did so not to advance Maria CantVOTEwell, but to tell Mikey, wake The F*** UP!

What would you do?
35 posted on 09/09/2006 1:05:57 PM PDT by bigfootbob
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To: bigfootbob
What would I do? Get out and vote for the candidate who best lines up with my positions and who has the best chance of winning. Sometimes that's the best you can do in politics. We don't always get the candidate who is 100% perfect, so we have to play the best hand we can with the cards we're dealt.

Whether or not McGavick is the best choice or not, I do think that handing CantDoWell another six years in the Senate is not a good way to gain yardage for the conservative cause. McGavick may not, either, but, on balance, I think there is a better chance with McGavick than there is with StupidWell.

True, I don't live in SayWA. But I have an interest in honest elections, and after the out and out theft of the Governorship from Dino Rossi in '04, I have been following the state politics there. Denigrate my opinions as those of an outsider if you must or if it makes you feel better, but, to be honest, conservatives are better served making common cause with those they are more naturally aligned with than seeking to divide an already divided (and therefore weakened) movement.

36 posted on 09/10/2006 3:45:35 PM PDT by chimera
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To: chimera
I wasn't trying to denigrate anything. I was pointing out common facts that are absent from the equation, lose the chip on the shoulder.

I'm clear as to the nature of politics. If he wants the support of the base he'd better start acting like it or, and as much as I find it distasteful, he'll be unemployed come mid-November.

Quite frankly, if he can't run a better campaign, what kind of senator will he make anyway. I keep thinking about what my mom used to say about the differences between quality and quantity.

McGavick hired several key Rossi campaign staff early on, they departed quickly, quietly about as fast, now we see why. McGavick has the majority of WSRP activists trying hard to help the doofus, yet all he or his underlings do is blow them off.

I hate it also. I was at the Seattle Press Club luncheon in 2004 when McGavick gave his very first political style speech. I was an early supporter.
37 posted on 09/11/2006 8:53:45 AM PDT by bigfootbob
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To: bigfootbob
Look, I'm not gung-ho about McGavick either and frankly I think his chances against StupidWell add up to a very, very long shot. Running a big-bucks corporate CEO from an insurance company (of all things) does not impress me as a good way to win the support of ordinary working stiffs. That said, on balance, the state of SayWA and conservatives there would be better served by retiring Maria in favor of Mikey. Again, that's on balance, given the choices on the table and the chances of one or the other winning. Like I said, I have an interest in honest elections, and the circumstances of NeerDoWell's "win" six years ago were very, very fishy. Turns out it was just the warmup for Fraudoire's theft in '04. The SayWA 'Rats are really proficient and consistent in stealing elections, you'd have to say.
38 posted on 09/11/2006 9:13:27 AM PDT by chimera
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To: Jim Noble
Maria Cantwell may be the least qualified United States Senator in the history of the republic (and that's saying a lot).

There is NO other senator less qualified than Patty Murray...she has all the brains of a head of cabbage.

39 posted on 09/11/2006 9:39:10 AM PDT by Snardius
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To: chimera

Can't argue that.


40 posted on 09/11/2006 10:30:49 AM PDT by bigfootbob
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To: Snardius
WA state has the "distinction" of having two of the three most brainless individuals ever to disgrace the Senate floor. Murray is routinely the winner of the Senator Least-Likely-To-Be-Confused-With-A-Rocket-Scientist Award, although how she beats out Barbara Boxer for that one is a mystery to me. The Left Coast really has some winners there, alright, Boxer, Murray, CantDoWell. Their collective IQ probably wouldn't add up to room temperature.
41 posted on 09/11/2006 10:46:48 AM PDT by chimera
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