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vanity: massive fall in commodities across the board
various | 9-11-06 | self

Posted on 09/11/2006 9:18:01 AM PDT by staytrue

Commodities of all types are falling big today.

Oil down over a dollar.

Gold down 23 dollars.

Silver down a dollar.

Grains and meats are down.

sugar, cotton, orange juice, lumber down also.

Cocoa and live hogs are about even.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Your Opinion/Questions
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This across the board massacre smells like someone or something big is in trouble and needs to liquidate.
1 posted on 09/11/2006 9:18:01 AM PDT by staytrue
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To: staytrue

So when do we buy?


2 posted on 09/11/2006 9:18:55 AM PDT by rhombus
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To: staytrue

I used to work for a commodities trader doing software development. A lot of people just got their rear ends handed to them.


3 posted on 09/11/2006 9:19:04 AM PDT by JamesP81 ("Never let your schooling interfere with your education" --Mark Twain)
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To: staytrue

Or someone is getting out at the top of the market?


</ tinfoil>


4 posted on 09/11/2006 9:19:20 AM PDT by IncPen (Bush Iraq Truth WMD http://freedomkeys.com/whyiraq.htm)
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To: staytrue

What's the "logic"?


5 posted on 09/11/2006 9:19:24 AM PDT by sarasota
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To: staytrue

It sounds perfect to me. Specially that oil drop. May it continue its downward spiral until I'm paying 1.35 again for gas.


6 posted on 09/11/2006 9:19:33 AM PDT by pissant
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To: hellinahandcart

Interesting.


7 posted on 09/11/2006 9:20:22 AM PDT by sauropod (Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys." PJO)
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To: staytrue
Oil down over a dollar.

Wow, a whole dollar? Oh...my....God!

8 posted on 09/11/2006 9:20:23 AM PDT by Plutarch
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To: staytrue

I wish it was Soros. :)


9 posted on 09/11/2006 9:20:29 AM PDT by mplsconservative
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To: staytrue

10 posted on 09/11/2006 9:21:35 AM PDT by eyespysomething (http://crumbsandfun.blogspot.com/2006/09/ana-centeno-tribute.html)
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To: staytrue; 1rudeboy; Toddsterpatriot
Gold down 23 dollars.

"This is an EXCELLENT buying opportunity! BUY GOLD TODAY!"

(Gold goes back up)

"This shows that gold is going to go as high as $2,500 an ounce! BUY GOLD TODAY!"

11 posted on 09/11/2006 9:21:42 AM PDT by BeHoldAPaleHorse ( ~()):~)>)
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To: Plutarch

platinum down 37 dollars.


12 posted on 09/11/2006 9:21:43 AM PDT by staytrue
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To: staytrue

This good for inflation - which has been rising and that is why housing is up today---Toll Brothers and KBH.


13 posted on 09/11/2006 9:21:45 AM PDT by croixjr
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To: staytrue

I don't know anything about the stock market, but didn't it do something weird before 9/11 or am I not remembering correctly.


14 posted on 09/11/2006 9:21:58 AM PDT by hipaatwo (Vote for your life. Every vote for a Democrat is a vote against victory.)
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To: mplsconservative

minorities and women greatly affected


15 posted on 09/11/2006 9:22:16 AM PDT by italianquaker (Democrats and media can't win elections at least they can win their phony polls.)
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Comment #16 Removed by Moderator

To: staytrue

Oil needs a hell of a lot bigger correction than that. And it needs a competitor to keep it corrected.


17 posted on 09/11/2006 9:23:41 AM PDT by mysterio
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To: staytrue

the arabs are broke


18 posted on 09/11/2006 9:23:50 AM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: tmp02

ping


19 posted on 09/11/2006 9:24:34 AM PDT by Velveeta (God bless America. Never forget.)
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To: BeHoldAPaleHorse

I'm somewhat amused by the notion that, because these commodities' prices are falling, folks are losing their shirts. Of course it's true, but what about the ones scoring big at the same time?


20 posted on 09/11/2006 9:24:37 AM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: staytrue

I for one agree; this (metals) has become a very crowded trade and a few funds have thrown in the towel. I'll separate oil from the metals, because IMO the fundamentals for oil very much outran the realities. I remain bullish on the metals but they will be a LT trade and they have demonstrated an unsuitability for more than say a single digit fraction of one's port. IMO, of course.

I truly do not understand the pump in the homies, though.


21 posted on 09/11/2006 9:24:38 AM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (You're never more than a half-step away from a good note.)
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To: sarasota

My guess is the inflation bugaboo is overrated as evidenced by oil prices dropping. Further, currency exchange rates may have influence on gold/silver beyond inflation. Dropping commodity prices may indicate that we are not in the final throws of cyclical down market but may be in for continued sustainable growth. All those players who sold cyclicals may just have to buy them back. Sweet.


22 posted on 09/11/2006 9:24:40 AM PDT by tigtog
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To: Pookyhead

Yes. Wishful thinking on my part. I'd love to see Soros lose his shirt and thus his influence.


23 posted on 09/11/2006 9:24:48 AM PDT by mplsconservative
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To: eyespysomething
"Looking good, Louis!"

"Feeling good, Billy Rae!"
24 posted on 09/11/2006 9:25:03 AM PDT by July 4th (A vacant lot cancelled out my vote for Bush.)
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To: 1rudeboy

Generally, the ones losing are the ones who thought the party would go on forever.


25 posted on 09/11/2006 9:25:23 AM PDT by BeHoldAPaleHorse ( ~()):~)>)
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To: staytrue

About time. They've been way too high for too long.


26 posted on 09/11/2006 9:26:55 AM PDT by LS
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To: tigtog

Very interesting and thanks.


27 posted on 09/11/2006 9:27:35 AM PDT by sarasota
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To: staytrue

Oil has been dropping for a while. Supplies were not all that tight, and it went up over 70 mainly on fears of impending wars and boycotts.

This was a critical day for gold and silver, up or down, and they both just broke down through support.

IMHO, the bull market in precious metals probably won't resume for at least another three months.

Probably the new Treasury Secretary had something to do with this happening at this key moment in time, right at the beginning of the September gold season and right before the run up to the elections. If so, good for him, because it will help the Republicans.


28 posted on 09/11/2006 9:28:02 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: mysterio

I'd guess it has to do with OPEC's announcement that they're going to continue pumping at current rates. Since everything is tied to petroleum, its a day to sell off.


29 posted on 09/11/2006 9:29:55 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (BTUs are my Beat.)
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To: staytrue

OK, pork belly prices have been dropping all morning.

So everybody's waiting for them to hit rock bottom so they can buy cheap. The people with pork belly contracts are thinking, "Hey, we're losing all our money and Christmas is coming. I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip, and my wife won't make love to me 'cos I ain't got no money".

They're panicking, screaming, "Sell, sell."

They don't want to lose all their money. They are panicking right now. I can feel it"

30 posted on 09/11/2006 9:31:06 AM PDT by Rb ver. 2.0
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To: eyespysomething

D'oh!


31 posted on 09/11/2006 9:32:29 AM PDT by Rb ver. 2.0
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To: staytrue
From Marketwatch:

Gold, silver ETFs down sharply on easing Iran fears

**************************

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Precious metals exchange-traded funds plunged Monday morning as investors weighed reports that U.S. officials said they welcome moving toward ending the nuclear standoff with Iran. Gold futures fell under $600 an ounce Monday for the first time since June as some analysts blamed the selloff on central-bank selling in Europe.

32 posted on 09/11/2006 9:32:41 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (History is soon Forgotten,)
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To: mplsconservative
I'd love to see Soros lose his shirt

thats a terrible visual...


33 posted on 09/11/2006 9:32:52 AM PDT by wallcrawlr
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To: staytrue
I believe that there is a 5 year collective realization setting in. Remember right after 9/11 we all thought that another attack was just about to happen? Remember that when we went to war there was a lot of hand wringing.

Investors have been on the sidelines and speculators have been running the markets. No, 5 years later, no attach on US soil. Despite false starts and missteps, mostly self imposed, we are WINNING. The panic, the fear is starting to fade. And the speculators are running out of steam....
Investors are starting to return.

And when that happens, bubbles tend to deflate back down to more normal price points. Just my opinion.
34 posted on 09/11/2006 9:33:54 AM PDT by taxcontrol
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To: pissant
"May it continue its downward spiral until I'm paying 1.35 again for gas."

Sunday Sept. 10th 2006 I paid $2.17 a gallon at Flying J Truck Stop in Suburry Ohio (On I-71 just North of Columbus Ohio)

35 posted on 09/11/2006 9:35:30 AM PDT by Mad Dawgg ("`Eddies,' said Ford, `in the space-time continuum.' `Ah,' nodded Arthur, `is he? Is he?'")
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To: All
More from MW:

Stocks dragged lower by commodities sell-off

****************************************

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks lost ground Monday as a sharp drop in crude-oil prices led a sell-off in commodities and sent shares of energy and mining companies lower, most notably Exxon Mobil and Alcoa on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

******************************

All the economic reports are pointing to a slower economy and that's weighing on stocks," said Anthony Conroy, head trader at BNY Brokerage. "But there are some positives out there as well. Crude is down for a sixth day in a row, its biggest falling streak in over three years."

36 posted on 09/11/2006 9:36:16 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (History is soon Forgotten,)
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To: Rb ver. 2.0

Actually, pork bellies are down big.


37 posted on 09/11/2006 9:36:16 AM PDT by staytrue
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To: Rb ver. 2.0

That movie was the first thing I thought of when I saw this thread.


38 posted on 09/11/2006 9:36:39 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder

"I truly do not understand the pump in the homies, though."

I truly do not understand the above sentence, can you translate please.

I have been following the oil prices for a while. Saw a TV program that said if it weren't for various manipulations, the true price of oil should be around $40 or $50. On the other hand I attended a conference on "peak oil" featuring Mr Lundberg of Lundberg Letter fame. There the projection was that because of growth in China and India, oil could reach $200/barrel in 5 or 10 years.


39 posted on 09/11/2006 9:37:09 AM PDT by gleeaikin
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To: staytrue
This across the board massacre smells like someone or something big is in trouble and needs to liquidate.

Hmmm...

I'm not sure that a single entity pulling out of commodities could result in this big an across the board move. And if it was a single entity, why would they pull out so fast that buyers could not keep up?

The traditional answer would be that a massive number of investors suddenly decided the world is a less risky place. But that would presumably push stocks up and interest rates down, and that is not happening.

It will be interesting to see if the fall continues.

40 posted on 09/11/2006 9:38:12 AM PDT by EternalHope (Boycott everything French forever. Including their vassal nations.)
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To: BeHoldAPaleHorse

Why do people who buy radio time to convince me that gold's going over $1000 want to sell me all their gold?


41 posted on 09/11/2006 9:38:34 AM PDT by oldleft
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To: Rb ver. 2.0

Mortimer, your brother is not well. We better call an ambulance.

F him! Now, you listen to me! I want trading reopened right now. Get those brokers back in here! Turn those machines back on! Turn those machines back on!


42 posted on 09/11/2006 9:38:36 AM PDT by dfwgator
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Comment #43 Removed by Moderator

To: dfwgator

What a great movie!!!


44 posted on 09/11/2006 9:39:50 AM PDT by Hildy
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To: gleeaikin

"homies" = the homebuilder sector, stock market talk.

examples:

NVR
HOV
LEN
MTH
WCI
PHM
MDC
TOL

I acknowledge that some of these stocks have a P/E of 3 or 4, but the news out of this sector has been nothing short of dismal.


45 posted on 09/11/2006 9:40:02 AM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (You're never more than a half-step away from a good note.)
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To: staytrue

Some of the hedgefunds heavily long into commodities have been feeling mucho pain as of late. I think it was in Barons where I read that one is no longer answering their phones.

I see health care, consumer staples, oatmeal and cash the places to be.


46 posted on 09/11/2006 9:40:21 AM PDT by HockeyPop
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To: Mad Dawgg

Driving around Sunday low that I saw in Souther California,,,,northern Orange County was $2.79....


47 posted on 09/11/2006 9:40:27 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (History is soon Forgotten,)
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To: italianquaker
This dude's net worth just went down the toilet.
48 posted on 09/11/2006 9:41:02 AM PDT by mlbford2 (I love my Semis, but for me they are for the range. My life is protected by my S&W revolver.)
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To: pissant

$1.35? I was paying $.98 in 1999.


49 posted on 09/11/2006 9:42:01 AM PDT by Vision ("As a man thinks...so is he." Proverbs 23:7)
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To: oldleft
Why do people who buy radio time to convince me that gold's going over $1000 want to sell me all their gold?

PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE LITTLE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN!

You just asked THE question every investor needs to ask about any investment sold in this manner:

If this is going to make me so much more money in three months than holding onto my cash, why is this guy offering to sell it to me now and thus lose the opportunity to profit handsomely in three months?

50 posted on 09/11/2006 9:43:11 AM PDT by BeHoldAPaleHorse ( ~()):~)>)
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