Posted on 09/11/2006 10:33:29 PM PDT by dangus
Most of the speculation of who will be the next President focuses on senators, who almost always lose. This article examines some of the other potential nominees who have gotten less attention. Keep in mind that most presidential nominees were not among the most-discussed candidates two years before the election.
Sonny Purdue is the most popular governor of any state with more than five electoral votes, and his overall approval ratings have taken off while he takes on more and more positions which drive Democratic voters nuts: reversing his Democratic predecessor's centralization of pedagogic education, refusing to allow aliens to benefit from breaking U.S. Law, and pursuing conservative fiscal policies. In 1994, the Republican party gained 25 seats in the state house of representatives. For the first time since reconstruction, it had a majority... and a comfortable one at that: 99-81.
Governor Purdue is husband of Mary (Ruff) Purdue, and father of a speech therapist, a minister, and an undergraduate at Kennesaw State. At 61 years old, he has five grandchildren. He's a medical doctor; well, a doctor of veterinary medicine, anyway, Viet-nam era Air Force captain, entrepreneur, and Sunday-school teacher. Like Gingrich (another Georgian wanted to be a veterinarian), he was first elected to public office as a Democrat, switching parties in the 1990s, being elected president of the state senate by both parties.
His negatives: He angered both sides of the racial divide in Georgia by campaigning against incumbent Governor Roy Barnes' redesign of the Georgian flag, and then approving a different redesign. He is rather short for a presidential candidate, and bears an occasional resemblance to Lou Grant. Although the employment rolls in Georgia have soared during his tenure, Georgia's unemployment rate, which had been well below the national average in the 1990s, is still only about average. Georgia is not the same Georgia that gave us Jim E. Carter, but the name Sunny hardly will help him shake the hick image he'll inevitably have up north.
From Minnesota, there's Governor Tim Pawlenty. Whereas Purdue has the perfect face for radio, Pawlenty is a former professional talk-show host. He's tall(er), dark, handsome, and young... only 46 years old. He originally wanted to run for the Senate in 2002, but Vice President Dick Cheney talked him into running for Governor, clearing the way for Norm Coleman to become Senator.
Pawlenty ran on a promise to eliminate the state's gaping $4.3 billion deficit without raising taxes. He did so, but the deficit problem grew so severe, he was forced to raise tuitions, and proposed a much-derided cigarette “health impact fee.” Some critics claim his plan to allow Hennepin County to raise funds for a new baseball stadium was also breaking this no-taxes pledge.
On most issues, Pawlenty has been aggressively conservative. He fought to prevent immigrants from staying in the country passed their visa expiration by putting the expiration date on their drivers' lisence, and opposed drivers licenses for illegal aliens. He campaigned on a 24-hour wait for abortions, supported a concealed-carry gun law, and made much stronger education requirements.
Tim Pawlenty is married to a district judge in Dakota County. His web page and wikipedia biography make no mention of any children.
The negatives: He stated he would not run for President when he announced his re-election campaign last year. He also had to pay fines for campaign violations in his first campaign. He remains a strong candidate for Vice President, being very popular in a key swing state. (Minnesota is not a huge states, but many major states are not swing states, and the regional influence could even help the neighboring swing states of Wisconsin and Iowa.)
Another state that the GOP picked up in 2002 brings us another potential presidential candidate, Alabama Governor Bob Riley. Riley has bounced back from the “Amendment One” disaster to being just about as popular as even Sonny Purdue. (Unlike Purdue, Riley really was a chicken farmer.)
Amendment One was a plan to make Alabama's income tax progressive. Although most people would have seen their tax payments decline, most people believed their own tax payments would increase. Despite arguing his case from the point of view of Christian charity, the amendment was overwhelmingly defeated, and his approval ratings plunged to the lowest in the nation. Some people consider his plan to speed up tax appraisals to be a covert tax hike.
Despite these losses, however, Riley found the tough budget cuts necessary, and slowly built a reputation as a strong executive. He concluded deals to bring industrial plants by manufacturers such as Hyundai and Airbus to Alabama, and proactively acted to mitigate the effects of Hurricane Katrina.
Negatives: He actually is a used-car dealer. And a Freemason. Despite the fact that his tax plan would've sharply lowered taxes overall, and was actually very progressive, you can be sure the Democrats will call it a tax hike if he were nominated.
I am not saying much about Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, in the expectation that he has been much-discussed as a presidential candidate already, and I have little to add. Nor am I discussing Bob Ehrlich of Maryland, who is currently failing in his bid for re-election. If he does get re-elected, however, he will get new attention. I am going to mention one executive who has been discussed much, Rudy Giuliani, in the hopes of providing some context.
Rudy Giuliani was elected Republican mayor of New York City. Thousands of New Yorkers were getting murdered every year, and Rudy, as a former federal prosecutor, saw what had to get done. He ran for mayor, and turned New York into one of the safest cities in America. Liberals tried to point out that others had significant success, omitting the fact they were also Republicans acting similarly to Giuliani. (LA's Mayor Riordan, NJ's Bret Schundler). But Giuliani's crisis was unique. He had a multilayered bureacracy in what has been called with no hyperbole the most unmanageable government in the world. Long before September 11, he was a national hero.
I am very pro-life. I am rooting for the defeat of liberal Republicans like DeWine and Chafee. And I'll admit that prior to the Republican convention I was bitter at Republican pragmatist who favored Schwartzenegger over McClintock. Yes, the poll results show McClintock would've won if conservative Republicans who voted for Schwartzenegger had voted for McClintock. I consider McCain a traitor, and am sick of phony pro-lifers.
That said, I am not certain I would vote against Giuliani. True, Giuliani ran as “pro-choice.” But it was for a position where there was no choice, politically or legally, to be pro-life. And frankly, the only action that matters to me is the selection of Supreme Court justices. I'd take a “pro-choicer” who would nominate a Janice Rogers Brown over a pro-lifer who would nominate a bra-burning leftist like Harriet Miers any day. I don't know what sort of a judge Giuliani would nominate, but if Giuliani announces he'd pick judges like Janice Rogers Brown, I'd believe him.
Giuliani did what was necessary to save New York from the nightmare it was fading into, and I'll be forever greatful for his heroism. His liberal stances represented his constituents; his conservative stances saved their lives. Most centrists are backstabbing pragmatists who sell out to the highest bidder. Giuliani is a truth-telling, patriotic hero. If he tells me he will represent his national constituency as a conservative, I will believe him and vote for him. If not, I won't. But I encourage conservatives to hear him out before rejecting him.
Oh, and don't say that Giuliani is “only” a mayor. New York City alone has a higher population than all but nine states. Governing New York City is much more difficult than governing Texas or even California.
Dissing some others:
Colorado Governor Bill Owens has been oftened mentionned, but he's weak on immigration (flopping around in the wind while supporting amnesty and opposing sensible reforms), terrible on language (fighting to preserve Spanish-language instruction in Colorado schools), and has had a messy divorce, leaving his wife for a staffer while in office.
I'm skipping over the micro-state candidates, like John Hoeven, Jon Huntsman, Linda Lingle, Dave Heineman, Jim Douglas and Mike Rounds, frankly, simply because they are from tiny states and I do not know them well. I'm not denying the possibility of a Republican Howard Dean. Well, a sane one.
If George W. was never elected, Jeb would be a great candidate.
By all means, add your whatever you know of these men, or of other people you think would be good presidents. Just, please, be polite and explain yourself; simply writing "GIULIANI SUCKS!!!" or the like is not constructive.
Huckabee wants the job.
In Giuliani's defence. He doesn't suck any more than any other liberal.
Hmmm... a governor from Arkansas... might be a tough sell...
Seriously, like Owens, I think he'll become plausible if he rescues the campaign of his taking would-be successor.
You lost me right...THERE.
I don't know the outcome, however, me thinks Newt is the best of the inferior field of this corrupt "Two-Party Cartel".
How much have you read of Harriet Miers' legal writings? They are indistinguishable from Lani Guineer's.
I actually like Gingrich, and think he is tragically misunderstood and maligned. But then again, i don't think anyone THAT misunderstood and maligned can ever get elected President, regardless of what 31 people in Pennsylvania think.
So she supported Roberts and Alito for SCOTUS because their views are also indistinguishable from Lani Guiner's?
That's as far as I read, because it's wrong. Jodi Rell of Connecticut is the most popular governor of any state with more than five electoral votes.
My ex-in-laws who are rapid, bush deranged clinton worshipping democrats absolutely hate Sonny. Makes him well placed for the job in my opinion. He's also a smart, well spoken man with ideas and a take charge attitude. Would make a great President! Wouldn't it be interesting to have Sonny and Phil Bredesen running against each other? Phil has been a good governor for Tennessee, but that probably disqualifies him with the current leftist leadership of the once sane democrat party.
Aw, crud... I meant five representatives. Blasted! Jodi Rell in Connecticut was exactly who I had been referring to. I was THIS CLOSE to telling you to check again and see that Connecticut had lost its sixth.
>> So she supported Roberts and Alito for SCOTUS <<
Source, please?
Tell you what... I'm in the market for an editor. I;ll give you DOUBLE what I gave the last guy. :^D
McCain really does suck, though....
I hope Rudy realizes that the pro-Choice stance is maybe one of, if not his most major stumbling block between him and the nomination....I have been hoping that it was a reflection of where he was at more than a heart-felt conviction...and that he could be comfortable with a pro-life stance.
I seem to remember that he was hardnosed enough about what NY needed that he made many enemies there, until 9/11 came and it clearly showed his depth. A great man to be at the helm in a horrid crisis.
I am still waiting to see who will be campaigning. I am not all that happy with those talking about it yet.
Oh, I'm sorry... I suppose it is easy to overgeneralize based on my admonition not to simply submit, "Giuliani SUCKS!!!"
So, to make up for it:
MCCAIN SUCKS!!!
ping
Sad but true. I wouldn't trade, because I'm very happy with George. But Jeb is great. Unfortunately I have Bush fatigue and I'm a Bushbot! It would be worse for everyone else.
If newt runs, we will have a democrat next time especially if they put a one time married person with family and relatively center in there beliefs. There would be no way I could ever vote for a three-time divorced person especially with regards to how the divorces happened. If America were to actually vote him in, I would respect that but I would be extremely shocked.
"Miers is leading the White House effort to help Bush choose nominees to the Supreme Court so naming her would follow a move Bush made in 2000 when he tapped the man leading his search committee for a running mate -- Dick Cheney."
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/09/27/D8CSSDT8B.html
"The Miers pick had its origin in the selection of John Roberts last July. Ms. Miers was praised for her role in selecting him and the wildly positive reaction."
http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110007398
I'm working and don't have time to look for the Alito citation, but among those who gave his blessing to Meirs was James Dobson--whatever I may think of him, he sure wouldn't be supporting any bra-burners.
Actually, Dirk isn't completely implausible...
Er.... I think it was something like a $5 billion tax increase. Okay, I read on Wikipedia that it was a $1.2 billion tax hike per year.
Did you do any fact-checking putting this together???
$ 5 billion? Absolutely not.
$ 1.2 billion? I believe that's what those taxes which would have been increased would have been increased by, not counting the offsetting cuts to others; You'll note, however, I not only mentioned that many would have had their taxes increased, but I also used the word, "overall."
OK. But to be clear, I referred to her WRITINGS, not her person. I believe her liberalism in her writings were an attempt to suck up to the radical left which ran the ABA, as opposed to when she was (I suppose) selected to do a job for her boss, the president. But, when you read the language of her writings, they're so vapid and trite, one must conclude she's either not very smart, or incredibly patronizing of her liberal constituents: they read almost like a Scrappleface parody of leftist boilerplates.
If you click on my keyword, "Dangus," you'll see my articles I've written. Or go to my home page. You'll see how I switched from initially defending Miers to being horrified at what I had read when her writings were dug uo.
Then of course Huckabee.
And a couple dark horse ex-governors such as Jim Gilmore and Tommy Thompson.
Mike Rounds is the only small-state governor who I could see making a good run. He's popular and has a good record.
I think it was one of those "over X years" figures.
$ 1.2 billion? I believe that's what those taxes which would have been increased would have been increased by, not counting the offsetting cuts to others
You are the first person I've ever heard claim that it was anything but a massive tax increase. It was designed to raise revenue by hundreds of millions of dollars to balance the budget, PLUS hundreds of millions more to pay for a massive education spending increase, among other things.
I am still very fond of Marc Racicot - a staunch Roman Catholic Pro-life fiscal and social conservative, who spent a lot of time on the road for the RNC, stumping loyally for the party platform and for George W Bush.
IMHO, this former Montana Governor, county prosecutor, and State's Attorney General is eminently qualified in terms of character and family life, scholastic and political achievements and viewpoints, and work for the GOP.
He also served in the military, rising to the rank of Capt.
He would make a great number one or two man on the GOP ticket in 2008.
Racicot/Rice? Romney/Racicot? Frist/Racicot...
He is well-known within the party, personable and charismatic, but not "over the top" in the way that Klintoon was for the dems, and Racicot has both the respect of a lot of major "players" and shakers in the party, and the ability to do some good old-fashioned hand-shaking and fundraising.
Cannot get 'there' from here without that attribute!
A.A.C.
Gilmore will not be nominated. He did such a lousy job with the state's finances that he made Ted-Kennedy-educated Mark Warner look brilliant AND conservative by being able to balance the budget with huge, but painless, spending cuts.
Thompson is pro-choice, isn't he? And he's been out of it a long time. I think Kempthorne is much more likely than Thompson, although if he could gain for us Wisconsin, he might tempt some soft-on-prolife candidate to pick him as a running mate...
As for Sanford, I didn't bring him up because I simply didn't know what caused his sudden collapse in poll numbers... do you? Earlier, he had caught my eye.
"The plan would raise state and local taxes by $1.2 billion a year when fully phased in, starting in 2008."
"Riley says his plan could fill a state budget shortfall that could total $675 million next year and raise enough additional money to create a world-class school system in Alabama."
Oh, Racicot... Now there's somebody I'd love to see get back into things! Frankly, I'd love to see some people's expressions when they find out how to spell "Roscoe"! :^D
Maybe the source of our disagreement is in the meaning of "when fully phased in"? Do perhaps the tax cust come first, and the tax hikes later? Dynamic scorekeeping?
He's been consistently popular despite -- and in part because of -- taking on the good-old-boy pork barrel politicians across the state, Republicans in particular.
Maybe you should provide a source backing up what you're saying?
How many parties would be suitable?
As I see it, there are the main contenders, Rudy, McCain, and possibly Mitt, and the dark horse, Mike Huckabee.
The GOP almost always nominates the candidate who is leading in the polls. No unknown, untested like Slick ever comes from behind and overtakes the frontrunner.
If Jeb's last name were not Bush, he would be the dream candidate for 2008.
I'm surprised Tancredo did not get a mention.
There is also the draft Condi crowd, the run Pat run crowd and the ron paul crowd.
That is because the republicans never have the 7 dwarfs, the 6 morons, 5 rotten eggs, 4 mental cases, the 3 stooges or whatever running.
The democrats have jesse jackson, al sharpton, dennis kucinich, howard dean, mike dukakis, ed the crying man, muskie, willie bimbo eruption clinton, walter I'll raise your taxes mondale, sargent electroshock shriver, george bankruptcy mcgovern, and their list goes on and on of fruit bats and nut cakes running on the democrat side.
Governor Haley Barbour, MS, but he is not running.
I have been involved in the GOP in Oregon [no jokes, please!] for many years as a precinct committeeman, and have had the opportunity to meet Racicot on at least three occasions.
The third time, he actually remembered me and greeted me by name - after an intervening time of at least six months - and willingly talked with and listened to me for several minutes.
I like the fact that he is, like George W., a plain-spoken fellow. He just doesn't dress up what he has to say where there is simply no need for it. At the same time, he is quite frankly, a bit more polished as a public speaker, and stumbles over words far less frequently than does GWB.
I am very fond of Bush, and consider him a really good President, and a fine human being - but there are definitely times when even slightly better public speaking skills might have brought more respect and credibility from a media so quick to seize on any/every little thing for critical fodder.
On the flipside of that, however, I think there are an awful lot of people who can relate to Bush precisely because of that particular perceived "weakness".
Until I see somebody clearly better step to the fore, Racicot will be my choice. I just hope others in the party do not forget his work and loyalty. We really need him - maybe with Condoleeza Rice as a running mate...
Just being obvious about electoral motives - a popular and non-controversial Western former Governor, known as a decent guy with reasonable to good name recognition, and an enormously popular, overachieving, more than capable conservative black woman from the South...with HUGE name recognition and identifiability...
Racicot could pull smaller electoral states like Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, New Mexico, and would give almost any dem a run for their money in Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Oklahoma. Kansas and Missouri would likely tilt red. The Dakotas - tought to say.
If George W and GHW stumped hard for him, he and Condi together could take Texas, and maybe Arkansas.
California would be tough and require some strategy, but Condi could [help] take Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and with W and Jeb stumping hard, Florida too!
Oregon and Washington would be problems - as always - so too, would New York, New Jersey, Mass, Penn...
All the ultra-lib Northern tier states basically...and Michigan and Minnesota.
Which means Ohio and Wisconsin could [again] end up being key contests.
I have not even paused to calculate a running tally of electoral votes - I just know/remember some of these states carried a lot of electoral weight.
It's going to be a short two years, and the GOP better get moving soon.
A.A.C.
You had me up until that particular comment. OK, you disagree with her, there's no need to resort to petty and childish name calling. Leave that to the Democrats.
He don't want the job. He never wanted a job in the Bush admin either. He was asked, and turned the offers down. If he did run for office, I would be one of the first to support him, but I will honor his decision to stay out of a life of politics.
Donald Rumsfeld beats them all...
Newt could not get elected assistant butt wipe at a diarrhea convention.
Funny thing, Tator, you've got Newt going all over the country peddling his book. He also had his people engineer a victory at an Iowa straw poll not long ago. Methinks Newt is running for "Player" at the Convention. He has to be smart enough to know he will never be nominated for anything. He's looking for a cabinet position.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
Well, if it helps, he's only twice divorced, he's still married to the third wife.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.