Posted on 09/13/2006 12:32:39 PM PDT by cogitator
"The pirate theory seems plausible enough.'
Then join us matey, yah hears the call of the sea dont ya?
Or are ye a lilly livered landlubber?
Fetch yer cutlass and watch the might of buccanneers tame the beastie global warmin.
I get seasick.
Muller does not factor in changes in Solar output.
His analysis deals mainly with the impact of changes due to the in the precession of the earths orbit as it intersects in and out of the accretion disc of interplanetary debris and dust affecting the formation of cloud layers reflecting sunlight away from the earth.
Of the two quatities, solar irradiation and albedo the Earth, by far parameter with the greates potential for variation and impact on the earth's temperature is that of the Earth's albedo, a measure of how much sunlight is reflected away from the earth.
"Apart from solar brightness, more subtle influences on climate from cosmic rays or the Sun's ultraviolet radiation cannot be excluded, say the authors. However, these influences cannot be confirmed, they add, because physical models for such effects are still too poorly developed."
In other words,
we know that there is alot more that we do not know,
we have neither the tools or the science to know everything we need to know,
so we will build speculative models
based only on the limited knowledge we have,
knowing that what we know is less than everything we need to know and
then we will give pretense to the public that they should make major economic-impacting public policy based on our admitted ignorance.
arrrggggggg
Lord Nelson got seasick too.
BS. The sun is a contained nuclear reaction where the container is the gravitational field of the sun itself. The gravitation field of the sun's core creates the pressure that causes the nuclear fusion which is the source of the sun's energy. The heat of the reaction causes the mantle to expand. As the mantle expands it reduces the density of the core, reducing the gravitational field and the pressure at the core. When the density of the core falls below a certain point, the rate of nuclear fusion slows, the amount of heat generated diminishes and the mantle cools and contracts increasing the core density, increasing the rate of fusion starting the cycle over again.
This cycle was part of basic physics back farther than I can remember and I have not seen anything to contradict it to date. The output of the sun is not fixed. It varies according to a natural cycle due to the forces which are the basic physics upon which the sun relies.
As I read it, changes in sunspot numbers are the main cause of variations in solar brightness. Do you have a different interpretation?
That 0.2% has a significant affect on Earth's radiative balance.
Which is one reason that cloud feedback effects are still the source of greatest uncertainty in climate models.
(Wow, a reasonable exchange. How quaint.)
Brightness of the source is not the same as incident energy flux .... not in a system like this.
Yet this warming trend has not yet reached the levels of the early Medieval Period from the 5th to 12th Centuries, when Palm trees grew in Southern England, and Greenland supported wheat cultivation. Other than a solar cause for this period of warming, what man-made global warming theory explains this?
This article simply documents a dying hoax, and the partisans struggling to keep their plans and desires for remaking the world in their ecological image alive. This hoax is dying from the shear weight of facts and common sense that exposes the flimsy nature of the rationale for today's "Global Warming Political Initiative", i.e. the unmaking of Western Industrial Capitalism in the name of Ecological Disaster Theory, which is "Global Warming". Al Gore as its "President" wishes to preside over a new paradigm in governance and social-economic planning, with the ascendancy of Eco-Technocracy to authoritarian control of our lives. Thank you Global Warming Theorists.
Second, it isn't clear from the article how they modelled the effect of increased solar radiation on the Earth's temperature. If all they're doing is adding the energy to the atmosphere's heat budget and asking what the temperature is, they're almost certainly wrong.
But the Sun is not constant. It is a varable star that grows and dims. I seem to recall that the cycle was about 9 days, but, I can't remember where I read it, maybe in Sky And Telescope. All I can remember is that they messured the brightness of Jupiter over a period of months and noted that there was a definate change in Jupiter's brightness.
Then, of course, there is the 11 year cycle, the 22 year cycle and some other 'harmonic' cycles.
Which is one reason that cloud feedback effects are still the source of greatest uncertainty in climate models.
Especially since there are so many factors affecting albedo other than the just minor direct radiation effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration that come into play that are inadequately characterized and in many cases totally lacking in the UN/IPCC climate models.
changes in sunspot numbers are the main cause of variations in solar brightness. Do you have a different interpretation?
Certainly as variations in sunspot numbers are a direct measure of the activity solar magnetic field flux being caused by said flux which varies cosmic ray incidence on the earth affecting cloud formation in much the same way as is observable in a Cloud Chamber.
Cloud density affecting Earth's albedo is a much more variable and more significant parameter than direct solar irradience any day.
Are you saying that a 150-watt bulb does not produce more heat than a 25-watt bulb?
That's really, really easy to disprove, IMHO.
Amazing that this little ball has lasted these billions of years if it is so precarisuly "balanced" that a 0.2% change in one varible makes such a big difference.
(But then again, a 350% greater change in another varible does not seem make any difference according to the "experts") < /s >
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