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[snip...] Considering the apocalyptic fanaticism of Iran's leader, it is an open question whether the current regime in Tehran is capable of being deterred through the threat of mutually assured destruction. But given how the world has responded to Hezbollah, the point may be academic. For surely Iran would be better served by using proxies to wage a nuclear war against Israel. And if there is no accountability, why stop with Israel? - The road to a suitcase bomb in Tel Aviv, Paris or New York just got a whole lot shorter.
Sharansky nailed it - My estimate is that Irans first strike against Israel will be delivered by suitcase or piloted aircraft. The bunkers and missiles they build are geared more for the war of attrition after their first strike. Think about the recent battle for Lebanon. Iranian military planners designed Hezbollahs strategy and tactics to the letter. The war in Lebanon was more telling than the NK tests and the Chinese submarine video released by the Iranians. In the case of the video being a dup, we shouldnt assume they lack the ability to launch missiles submerged - as they claim. Their strategy is clear but their ability is not. What we do know is that their military and political ability is improving remarkably. Once their confidence reaches a tipping point, expect an overt militant provocation from the Iranians. No one builds an empire quietly.