Skip to comments.Poll: Harris within 9
Posted on 09/20/2006 12:10:49 PM PDT by ghostmonkey
I haven't seen this poll mentioned on FR yet. (I have seen the SurveyUSA poll discussed.)
This poll has the race even tighter than SurveyUSA does. (9 Points).
Anyone know anything about the polling company??
The Jennings poll also said Harris trailed Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson 50-41 in the Senate race, and Republican Charlie Crist was up 51-37 over Democrat Jim Davis in the governor's race.
Very, very volitale..don't put much into this survey.
Good news for Harris. I'm a fan!
That is because only 91% will vote!!
Why can't you grasp that simple concept?
I believe these are the numbers within the district, not the numbers statewide.
In a nearly contemporaneous statewide poll, SUSA says Harris is trailing Nelson by 15 points, and Crist is leading Davis by 8 points. These statewide figures are consistent with the district figures, because the district tends to vote Republicans moreso than the state as a whole does.
The case of the missing 9%
As one of those who said she had no chance, I'd love to be proven wrong.
I think we are seeing a trend nationwide. Lots of polls show a growing movement in the GOP direction.
Have any of you heard about this "Jennings poll" that shows Harris trailing Nelson by only 9%?
1. Nobody knows who the hell these guys are.
2. If post #6 is correct, it's not even a statewide poll.
I have no problem believing Harris has improved since she was polling around 25%, but people are still nuts if they think she's gonna win. She isn't.
You're right, I just read the article, and it appears to be a Democrat poll of 500 registered voters within FL-13 (the congressional district Harris is vacating). Now, the numbers for the House race poll are just plain silly, which is why the Democrat Jennings (I now see that Jennings refers to the candidate, not the polling company) released them in the first place, but the numbers for the gubernatorial and Senate races are reasonable for the district.
It's like an old poster I saw - "The first 90% of the job takes 90% of the time; the last 10% of the job takes the other 90% of the time."
From what I can tell, the Jennings poll only measured in the 13th district. If you read the article in the bradenton.com site, it's clear that all that was polled was the 13th district and that the Harris question was part of the poll, which had the 13th district congressional race as its main question.
It would make no sense to poll anyone outside the 13th district to answer the main question.
Should Mr. Nelson's drop below 50% in more than one or two polls, RobFromGa will have to substantially upgrade Mrs. Harris' chances.
Not until I read it in this thread. Be nice if it were true. ;-)
How bad are things, that down 9 is a good thing?
I already promised to put Harris in play in the October predictions, just not sure of the percentage at this time. This poll appears bogus, but she is likely within 10-15. I would say her chances are about as good as Bouchard's to knock off Stabenow, maybe a lttle less, say 10% right now.
AS I have said before, I want to be wrong on this one. To win, the PResident and Laura and Jeb need to stump for her...
I'm also a fan of Harris & will be voting for her in November.
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