Skip to comments.Poll: Harris within 9
Posted on 09/20/2006 12:10:49 PM PDT by ghostmonkey
I haven't seen this poll mentioned on FR yet. (I have seen the SurveyUSA poll discussed.)
This poll has the race even tighter than SurveyUSA does. (9 Points).
Anyone know anything about the polling company??
The Jennings poll also said Harris trailed Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson 50-41 in the Senate race, and Republican Charlie Crist was up 51-37 over Democrat Jim Davis in the governor's race.
Very, very volitale..don't put much into this survey.
Good news for Harris. I'm a fan!
That is because only 91% will vote!!
Why can't you grasp that simple concept?
I believe these are the numbers within the district, not the numbers statewide.
In a nearly contemporaneous statewide poll, SUSA says Harris is trailing Nelson by 15 points, and Crist is leading Davis by 8 points. These statewide figures are consistent with the district figures, because the district tends to vote Republicans moreso than the state as a whole does.
The case of the missing 9%
As one of those who said she had no chance, I'd love to be proven wrong.
I think we are seeing a trend nationwide. Lots of polls show a growing movement in the GOP direction.
Have any of you heard about this "Jennings poll" that shows Harris trailing Nelson by only 9%?
1. Nobody knows who the hell these guys are.
2. If post #6 is correct, it's not even a statewide poll.
I have no problem believing Harris has improved since she was polling around 25%, but people are still nuts if they think she's gonna win. She isn't.
You're right, I just read the article, and it appears to be a Democrat poll of 500 registered voters within FL-13 (the congressional district Harris is vacating). Now, the numbers for the House race poll are just plain silly, which is why the Democrat Jennings (I now see that Jennings refers to the candidate, not the polling company) released them in the first place, but the numbers for the gubernatorial and Senate races are reasonable for the district.
It's like an old poster I saw - "The first 90% of the job takes 90% of the time; the last 10% of the job takes the other 90% of the time."
From what I can tell, the Jennings poll only measured in the 13th district. If you read the article in the bradenton.com site, it's clear that all that was polled was the 13th district and that the Harris question was part of the poll, which had the 13th district congressional race as its main question.
It would make no sense to poll anyone outside the 13th district to answer the main question.
Should Mr. Nelson's drop below 50% in more than one or two polls, RobFromGa will have to substantially upgrade Mrs. Harris' chances.
Not until I read it in this thread. Be nice if it were true. ;-)
How bad are things, that down 9 is a good thing?
I already promised to put Harris in play in the October predictions, just not sure of the percentage at this time. This poll appears bogus, but she is likely within 10-15. I would say her chances are about as good as Bouchard's to knock off Stabenow, maybe a lttle less, say 10% right now.
AS I have said before, I want to be wrong on this one. To win, the PResident and Laura and Jeb need to stump for her...
I'm also a fan of Harris & will be voting for her in November.
Put it this way. If Harris were to lose only by 9% it would help the GOP down ticket and US House Seats in Florida.
That is why people would be happy at a 9% loss.
"The first 90% of the job takes 90% of the time; the last 10% of the job takes the other 90% of the time."
Was it Yogi Berra who said "This game is 90% half mental"?
Looks like an outlier to me.
But just an FYI: If she wins, I will be very happy, and I'll gladly swallow my pride and admit I've been wrong all along.
Jennings is a liberal and a longshot to win in a GOP district.
Why would anybody believe her Internla polling?
She only let it be known to get desperation Fundraising from the DNC.
When you come to the fork in the road, take it.
Hardie har har har! Oh how sweet this would be! Still a long way off but wow! Maybe the GREAT Florida GOP GOTV and Charlie Crist can pull her along.
"This poll appears bogus,..."
Not really bogus, just, unfortunately, not representing the entire state, apparently. Oh well. It was nice while it lasted. LOL.
Here in Maryland, some of the lamestream media has attacked Mr. Steele because, 1) his commercials don't mention that he's a Republican (why would he in a state that's 2-1 Dammocrap??) and 2) in one ad, he's holding a dog that doesn't actually belong to him.
ROTFLMAO!! He must be doing well in polls unrevealed for them to reach so far.
I just pinged you the Steele poll just released on Rasmussen- he sat on it for a week (Premium side only)
If she pulls this out, it will be the comeback of the century.
Wow ... only 9 points! This could really turn into somthing quite remarkable.
She is leading among those who will pull the curtain and vote in private. Security is the only issue!
Pray for W and Our Freedom Fighters
But I don't understand. Everyone is in some column. It should be 100%. What category is the remaining 9% in?
It is a Dem poll of just the Harris Congressional District, and is worthless. It has the Dem CD candidate winning by 8%, while the consitutent dynamics poll, that in some CD's is now being replicated by other polls, had the Pubbie up by 15% or something like that.
Space aliens? New math? Farrakhan addition?
I dont think HArris will win, but this shows two things:
1. Nelson is extremely weak
2. If the GOP had gotten its act together early, Nelson would be trailing
Harris will win. I saw the first Nelson ad on TV last night, and he creates a very negative impression which is best described as "pompous ass". The more he appears on TV, and the more voters learn that he's a Kennedy-Kerry ultra-liberal clone, the more voters will say "no way", and vote for Harris.
Hi Torie good to see you back. How are you feeling about the House races these days? Did you see that Gerlach poll by Bill MCinturff and POS showing Jim ahead of Murphy by 8%?
Gerlach's up by 8% in an independent poll? If the Dems can't beat a weak Gerlach with a well-funded challenger in a Kerry district, I'll have to change my prediction from a net loss of 5 GOP House seats to a break-even election.
This poll is nonsense.
Auh2, and it was from a credible pollster. Public Opinion Strategies . It shows you why Incumbents have 98% retention rate.
That Gerlach poll was an internal poll his campaign released. I don't believe it. (He is down 5% in the Constituent Dynamics poll the numbers in which are being corroborated in a few districts now by other polls.) If it is real, the only seat the Dems might get in the Northeast I would think is the Sherwood seat.
If the Gerlach poll is real, nationwide the Dems would pick up TX-22 and *maybe* IA-01, CO-07 and AZ-08. Mass suicide for the Kossites.
I think the filandering Sherwood will survive even if Gerlach goes down (as I assumed he would before hearing about the POS poll). The Dems didn't run a strong enough candidate to beat him, and you can't beat somebody with nobody (absent a 1994-style tsunami that swept in even Michael Flanagan in Chicago). Bobby Casey would have been a far better choice (even with Scranton placed in Kanjorski's CD).
An internal (D) poll from the Democratic candidate in FL-13 of the Senate race in FL-13 is less than useless.
What is kinda hard to figure is that the Murphy campaign continues to tout its own internal poll it did in early August which showed Murphy up only 1 in the same breath as the C-D poll which showed it up by 5. They did this in some article I read yesterday talking about the race and Gerlach's internal poll dump linked by politicspa.com, if I can find it.
I would think they would realize that repeating the "...your own internal poll that doesn't show it nearly as good as this Indy poll here..." line would tend to encourage doubts on both polls, at least it always does in my mind.
That was another race that I had a big question mark in my head from the C-D results that has not been cleared (I know that I had mentioned PA-10 and CT-2 to you before) because of this internal thingy. Just a lot of doubt in my head.
I still think the Democrats take the seat. If they don't, I think we'd all agree that it will be a very long night for them.
Nelson will lose. His ultraliberal record is being exposed, and he's actually showing his face on TV, which will cause many voters to say, "I didn't realize he's been in the Senate for 6 years. What has he done?" Answer: nothing, except vote as intructed by the Clintonistas, Kerry, Kennedy, Levin, Schumer, Biden and the rest of the socialist party.
Yeah, I saw that thread NN, thanks. I hope they all push real hard for her election. We need a conservative from Florida and Nelson is the pits. I want to be wrong on this one.
Two days ago there was a thread that said she was down 40 points. Where are they getting these wild numbers?
This is not a statewide poll so it is relatively meaningless.