15 Comments on this storyPosted on 09/23/2006 11:07:54 AM PDT by axes_of_weezles
Good news for the Graf Campaign.
Ping.
Ping
Not so sure it is good news. We can hope they're mistaken, but it sounds like Emmanuel thinks Giffords will win without party money.
NRCC pulled their money for Graf wednesday night/thursday.
It's good news. The Rats think they can win on ideology.
Wont work in Southern Arizona.
2 Military bases in the district.
300 Miles of border with mexico.
Majority of the district is rural/suburban. Rats core are in Tucson only.
Don't be too sure. With all the code pinkos at the U of A and all the South Tucsonians on the dole the 8th district is getting pretty far left. The only thing that might hold it together is the widely divergent opinions by the candidates on taxes and illegals.
"Rest of AZ is sparsely populated and one can drive a hundred miles and see NOTHING but rattlesnakes."
Yet greater Sedona, Prescott (Tri cities) and Flagstaff are great places. All together they might reach 200,000 to 300,000 population spread across higher and cooler scenery.
"It's good news. The Rats think they can win on ideology.
Wont work in Southern Arizona."
I hope you're right, but, according to this, Graf is/was 19 points behind
NRCC pulls Graf ads in Arizona
thehill.com ^ | September 22, 2006 | Aaron Blake
Posted on 09/22/2006 12:07:50 PM PDT by VU4G10
National Republicans are pulling advertising in Arizona for 8th District GOP nominee Randy Graf, who last week won his party’s primary but is trailing by nineteen points in a general election poll released Tuesday by his Democratic challenger.
A spokesman for the Tucson ABC affiliate, where ads were reserved, confirmed that the party committee was pulling them.
The Arizona Democratic Party on Wednesday accused Graf of "associating himself" with former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke, citing a posting on Duke’s website but offering no evidence of an actual relationship.
On Thursday, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) sent a letter to the media addressed to National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y). In it, he cited Graf’s "ties" to Duke and called on the NRCC to stop supporting Graf.
An NRCC spokesman said it has paid for ads on behalf of Graf that are scheduled to run through Oct. 3, but declined to say what it would do beyond that date, citing a policy against discussing campaign strategy. The spokesman reiterated the NRCC’s full support for Graf.
Reynolds responded to Emanuel in a letter arguing that Duke’s posting didn’t amount to an endorsement and detailing several Democratic donors and candidates with criminal pasts or "radical views."
Rest of article and thread here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1706495/posts
Yes, I was mostly referring to the southern half of the state. Although the norther half is relatively unpopulated there are GREAT mountains and woods. I think the greatest stand on Ponderosa (except Russia) is in northern AZ. Much cooler because of elevation, but not too many people. All the people are in Maricopa county which is very quickly becoming Los Angeles II.
Yah, he's wrong.
The Dems are pulling out because they know they don't need them to win.
Graf is the darling of the one-issue-immigration crowd, but he has little appeal outside of that crowd.
I hope he wins, but I wouldn't bet the rent on it. For that matter, I wouldn't bet $5 on it either.
NOTHING but rattlesnakes?
That's not true - there is PLENTY of greasewood.
Bye-Bye-Gabrielle Giffords
Hello Randy Graf.
I'd bet the rent and more on it, Randy is a sure win.
You are aware that every poll has Graf down by double digits, aren't you?
Jon Kyl is running the cleanest campaign I've ever seen. His "opponent" on the other hand has been doing nothing but slinging major league mudcakes. Pederson is a braindead, Commie moron. He needs to just quit. Arizonans do not want people like Pederson in Washington.
Screw the NRCC anyway. Graf can get money from the grassroots.
This district is the Socialist stronghold in Arizona. They do have a small outpost in Flagstaff also because of the University for the Sexually Disoriented (USD) being located there. Graf can't get the illegal alien vote so it will probably be tough for him to win. The illegals will vote for the DemocRAT in hopes that the DemocRATS will continue to let them scrounge off welfare in Arizona.
Oh yah, sure, that explains a double digit deficit. Maybe that is true!
Maybe Bill Clinton will keep his pants zipped up.
Maybe Al Gore will stop exaggerating.
Maybe Trent Lott will lose in Mississippi.
Maybe a lot of things.
But but by any reasonable standard? No way.
Good to see you a DNC supporter. :)
True.
Luckily, they won't send him there.
I'm just glad he's spending all his money on this instead of other races.
Are you sure you are on the right forum?
Surrender monkeys do better at D.U.
The conservative voters in CD8 are not scared of a side to side comparison between Giffords and Graf.
You are blinded by your support of illegal immigration and amnesty.
Even Giffords has ads saying she is strongest on border security, just like the lies Huffman put out and voters saw trhough.
So, go ahead and put your money where your mouth is and support the DNC.
Meanwhile those of us who live in this district will support Randy Graf.
Can Graf beat Democrat Gabrielle Giffords?
Well, he can--but Giffords enters the race as the favorite. She ran a great campaign, grabbing more than 54 percent of the vote and beating out her closest challenger, former newscaster Patty Weiss, by more than 23 percentage points. Plus, Democrats appear much more united than Republicans, with most of Giffords' primary opponents backing her. Weiss in particular was a class act on Election Night, showing up at Giffords' celebration and throwing her support behind the nominee.
While Republicans are making a show of uniting behind Graf, there's a lot of pessimism in the smoke-filled back rooms about his chances. Just look at the Zimmerman poll released before the primary: Giffords was leading Graf by 10 percentage points.
Giffords is obviously an attractive candidate to Democrats, but she's also seen as reasonable by moderate Republicans and the business community.
But with all the money that's going to be tossed around, Giffords is going to have to work hard for a win. And if she wins, she's going to have to work even harder to hang on to it in two years.
This is from a local political pundit, not your beltway kneepadders.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1706983/posts
Primary School (Why did Randy Graf kick Steve Huffman's ass in the CD8 GOP primary?)
Did you appreciate his recent TV spot that bragged about his $97,000 tax relief from Bush, and how the little people need it more than he did!!! This is our own Soros.
Beltway kneepaders?
Ignoring the fact that this is obviously a useless and desperate personal attack, I'm from Seattle and live in Southern California.
And he's right that she'll have to work hard to keep this seat should she win it. We won't have a bad candidate next time.
I'm not going to bother to respond to your other silly attempts to drag the debate down into the gutter and namecalling. This isn't about issue politics, this is about an objective look at the possibility of victory in this race, which is quite small.
Republicans will hold their majority in November, but we are very unlikely win this seat. No amount of personal attacks or slander will change that.
Pederson is a sick puppy. His ads are bogus and he is so full of crap. I'm proud of the way Kyl is responding. Simon is running against my Rep., Rick Renzi. Her ads are laughable. The way I see things down here where "the rubber meets the road," Renzi is going to clobber her.
Anyway the DNC puylling their ads says to me that they already spent their money well(a rarity foir the democrats) by putting Graf over the top with their $175,000 expenditure against Graf's main opponent in the GOP primary, Huffman.
Agree on everything. I doubt that favor would be returned by the Tancrediacs, however. But I would do my duty and pull the lever for Graf.
Anyway the DNC puylling their ads says to me that they already spent their money well(a rarity foir the democrats) by putting Graf over the top with their $175,000 expenditure against Graf's main opponent in the GOP primary, Huffman.
Agreed. I'm not a big fan of Huffman either, but he would have been a better candidate then Graf. It seems like there must have been some better candidate somewhere in the district then either of them.
Stick to discussions of policy, and dont repeat DNC talking points then.
Randy started Prop200, which has been copied by the House republicans about two weeks ago. It requires Arizona ID and Photo ID to vote. You didnt hear anything negative in the press about it -did you? Of course not.
You are taking to heart internal DNC polling, which is wrong and skewed in the first place.
You were also on the Duke thread last night with provoking negative comments.
You cant be above the fray and make unfounded negative posts.
Residents have a personal stake in the election. From what the RNC and NRCC and other state parties have done in the Primary, folks that live here are rightly P.O.d at the parties.
Actually IMO, Graf was following the Mexicans that require a photo ID to vote.
You are probably correct, my district is Shadegg.
I am hoping we can elect a veto-proof legislature as a backup to not being able to oust that Dim Janet, vetoer of all things controlling immigration.
Having seizures, Howard?
Uh axes, it was howard dean, who spent $175,000 in AZ-8 attacking Graf's main GOP primary opponent, huffman. Thus giving Graf a boost with the DNC expenditure.
LOL! Graf was howard dean's choice and he got his wish.
Yeah Howard, you made a bad investment in Graf. Since when do Republicans make election funding decisions for Rats?
Dane, your boy lost. Get over it.
Huh? Saturday afternnon happy hour start early for you?
In 2004, the district voted 53 for Bush versus 47 for Kerry.
We can therefore suspect that, on a level playing field, with two equally good campaigners, the Republican would have a slight advantage. This is not a district you'd want to concede to the other side.
I therefore doubt that the Republicans would withdraw from the district because of the one poll we have seen since the primary (or, that the Democrats would likewise withdraw from the district just because the Republicans have withdrawn.)
I think the national Republicans want to see if the advertizing through October 2 will be effective in turning the numbers around in this district (and how resources and needs develop within this district and nationwide), before putting more money into the district.
In other words, if Graf can close the gap at least somewhat, generate some money on his own, so that another half million fropm national will do the trick, and if the national Republicans have funds relatively available, funds will come back into the district.
(The same could be said about the Democrats, if Graf can close the gap at least somewhat in the next couple weeks.)
Having said this, it does look like the Republicans are making some very tough decisions. They are NOT funding incumbents who should be able to win on their own (e.g., multi-term incumbents in districts with a substantial Republican tilt). Instead, they are focusing their resources on vulnerable incumbents and a very small number of pick-up opportunities.
This strategy is predicated on maintaining a majority, even if a diminished majority, in the House. It is a defensive strategy.
If this is, indeed, the strategy, the fact is that non-incumdents will be at a severe disadvantage relative to vulnerable incumbents in getting money from the national Republicans.
Thanks for the ping!
sorry for the double. Sometimes I don't think my internet cable is fast enough!
Interesting theory. It also gives the big picture view, which we tend to lack when looking at just one candidate. But you have more faith than I do that this isn't personal for the RNC and that they will come around if needed. I think they know Graf will be a thorn in their side and will not be able to be bought off. A real man, but not the kind of politican the Republicans like.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
