Giffords leads Graf solidly in Dist. 8 poll ( AZ Rat Poll,Rat Author)

The Arizona Daily Star ^ | 24 September 2006 | Daniel Scarpinato

[axes_of_weezles]

Poll results District 8, U.S. House

Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat: 48.4%

Randy Graf, Republican: 35.7%

David Nolan, Libertarian: 1.4%

Jay Quick, independent: 1.1%

Undecided: 13.4%

Margin of error of 3.9 percentage points. Survey of 600 likely voters in Congressional District 8 Sept. 16-19.

Name the single most important issue when deciding whom to vote for:

Border Control/Immigration: 45.8%

War in Iraq: 10.7%

Candidates' experience: 8.5%

Party affiliation/Support for President Bush: 7.4%

Health care: 7.2%

Education: 5.8%

Rate the importance of these issues when deciding whom to vote for:

Important or very important

Immigration: 82.3%

War on terror: 82.2%

War in Iraq: 81.3%

Which party controls Congress: 71.3%

National economy: 69.1%

Health care: 67.8%

Gay marriage: 43.4%

Gender gap

Men Women

Giffords: 38.4% 56.7%

Graf: 46.2% 26.9%

Nation

Giffords leads Graf solidly in Dist. 8 poll

By Daniel Scarpinato

arizona daily star

Tucson, Arizona | Published: 09.24.2006

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Democrat Gabrielle Giffords holds a solid lead over Republican Randy Graf in the Congressional District 8 race, according to a poll of likely voters sponsored by the Arizona Daily Star and KVOA Channel 4.

The poll, conducted by Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence, also found immigration is, by far, the most compelling issue on voters' minds when choosing a candidate.

Giffords is ahead by 12.7 points. Graf's biggest problem seems to be capturing undecided voters and losing crossover Republican voters.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points, surveyed 600 likely voters in Congressional District 8 Sept. 16-19, just days after the two were named their parties' nominees in the primary election.

According to the poll, with seven weeks to go before the Nov. 7 general election, 48.4 percent of voters favor Giffords, 35.7 percent are in Graf's court and 13.4 percent are undecided.

Libertarian David Nolan and independent Jay Quick each had less than 2 percent.

The poll indicates 67 percent of Republican voters support Graf, compared with 84 percent of Democrats who are sticking with Giffords. What's more, 16 percent of Republicans say they plan to vote for her. And more than 55 percent of independents are supporting Giffords, as opposed to 21 percent going for Graf.

"Arizonans know that we need someone in Washington who can get something done," said Giffords' campaign manager, Rodd McLeod, emphasizing Giffords' "bipartisan" support.

Among Republicans, 15 percent are still undecided. Only 10 percent of Democrats have yet to choose a candidate in the Republican-leaning district currently represented by the retiring Jim Kolbe.

Graf campaign manager R.T. Gregg acknowledged the campaign needs to work on shoring up the Republican base.

"We certainly have our efforts focused on what we need to do to win," he said.

The poll offers a few surprises.

Graf, who has made border security his key issue, trails Giffords among voters who say immigration is important to them in this election.

Giffords also leads in the district's rural areas — Cochise, Pinal and Santa Cruz countries — where Graf has enjoyed popularity among Republicans.

The poll reveals a sharp gender gap. Nearly 57 percent of women support Giffords, with 46 percent of men going for Graf. About 13 percent of both men and women are undecided.

Issues

When asked what the most important issue is in deciding whom to vote for, "border control/immigration" is the run-away leader, with nearly 46 percent saying that's what's most on their minds when it comes to this race.

That's more than four times the next-most frequent response, the war in Iraq, cited by 10.7 percent of voters. Experience was next at 8.5 percent. Health care with 7.2 percent and education with 5.8 percent are at the bottom of the list.

When voters were asked to rate the overall importance of a list of issues, immigration again finished on top with 82.3 percent rating it important or very important, followed by the war on terror with 82.2 percent considering it important or very important and the war in Iraq at 81.3 percent.

Control of Congress, the economy and health care were also rated important or very important by a solid majority of voters. Of the seven issues listed, only gay marriage failed to strike a chord with a majority of voters, at 43.4 percent.

Strategies

Carol Zimmerman, a long-time local Democratic consultant who ran the Star-sponsored poll, said her advice to Graf would be to make the election less about Giffords and more about keeping Democrats from winning control of Congress.

"I'd go right back to my Republican base and say, 'It's all about keeping control of Congress, and Republicans, you have to stay the course.' And I would try to find a way to appeal to them," Zimmerman said.

She also said that although Giffords' numbers are high, she cautions against calling the Democrat "popular," especially among Republican crossover voters.

"I don't know that they're saying, 'Oh, I just love her.' I think they're saying, 'I don't like him,' " Zimmerman said.

McLeod said he's not surprised by Giffords' approval rating on the immigration issue, but Judi White, chairwoman of the Pima County Republican Party, said she still thinks Graf "owns it" despite the poll results.

Zimmerman said that for Giffords, the key is turnout and holding her base, since Demo-crats are outnumbered in District 8 and tend to turn out in smaller numbers.

"Stay the course. Don't make a mistake," Zimmerman said. "It's hers to lose and there's still a lot of time to go, and being complacent would be the worst mistake."

● Contact reporter Daniel Scarpinato at 807-7789 or dscarpinato@azstarnet.com.

9 Comments on this story

[axes_of_weezles]

This is the Democratic Poll, talked about by the DNCC.

[BW2221]

The thing I wonder is how many said they weren't voting for Graf out of political correctness..


There's still about 5 weeks until the election.

[Jazzman1]

can ANYBODY trust any of these polls anymore? It seems they're all taken by DIMocRATs (or their accomplices in the media) and the numbers and findings are ALWAYS skewed in their favor. What a JOKE!

[LS]

Ok, so in a Rat-oriented, Rat-sponsored poll, the difference is just over 12 . . . whereas just last week it was, supposedly, 19.

I say, the difference is about 7-8, with the GOP candidate only SELECTED LAST WEEK. Watch this race start to shift.

[Cowboy Bob]

I've seen Graf posters all over northern Tucson. I've yet to see any for Giffords.

The Giffords campaign has been running commercials that call Graf an "extremist," yet offers no proof to back it up. What is interesting is that Giffords has a male voice-over in the commercials. I say this because when she comes on at the end to say "I approve of this commercial," she comes across as whiny. The Graf campaign needs to play this up.

Finally, both Graf and Giffords were in the Arizona legislature together - certainly they both have records that can be examined.

[axes_of_weezles]

You are correct. They have not even started to speak about issues, just slimy ads from Giffords.

There will probably be a couple of debates prior to election day.

Giffords cannot hold her own against someone with a logical argument and a policy. She is running on the goodwill of the Democratic party and her inheritance money.

[SandRat]

Here's the Money-Statement that the poll is bogus

Graf, who has made border security his key issue, trails Giffords among voters who say immigration is important to them in this election.

Giffords also leads in the district's rural areas — Cochise, ...

DELUSIONAL Arizona Red Star

[jamese777]

However it is true that Kolbe has refused to endorse Graf and the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has pulled all national funding out of the District 8 race.
The Dems then countered by pulling their money out too, believing that Giffords is a shoo-in.

GOP Drops Ariz. TV Ad Campaign
GOP drops plans for big TV ad campaign in House race in Arizona, sign Democrats may take seat
WASHINGTON, Sep. 21, 2006
By DAVID ESPO AP Special Correspondent

---

(AP) Republicans signaled retreat Thursday in their battle to retain an Arizona congressional seat, dropping plans for nonstop television advertisements through Election Day on behalf of GOP contender Randy Graf.

Officials in both parties said private polls show Graf trailing Democratic rival Gabrielle Giffords in the race to replace Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe, who is retiring after 22 years in Congress.

The maneuvering shows the intense district-by-district competition for control of the House, with the two parties adjusting tactics frequently to take changing circumstances into account. Democrats must gain 15 seats this fall to capture control of the 435-member House.

In many circumstances, a decision to turn back reserved advertising time suggests a party has concluded it cannot prevail and prefers to spend its money on a more winnable race. In this case, the GOP advertising is expected to end on Oct. 3, rather than continue throughout the campaign.

Carl Forti, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, declined to discuss the organization's advertising plans. "They haven't won anything until Nov. 7," he said.

R.T. Gregg, a spokesman for Graf, said he did not know about the developments. He noted that by law, the GOP advertising was undertaken independent of the candidate.

Bill Burton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said, "There was a reason that Jim Kolbe wouldn't endorse Randy Graf, and that's why national Republicans are walking away."

Kolbe declined to endorse Graf after his primary victory this month, citing "profound and fundamental differences" on several issues.

The decision came on a day party leaders clashed sharply over Graf.

Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, chairman of the Democratic campaign committee, sent a letter to his Republican counterpart saying that Graf had the support of white supremacist David Duke. He challenged Rep. Tom Reynolds of New York, chairman of the GOP campaign committee, to stop advertising immediately on Graf's behalf, adding, "Candidates tied to white supremacists are not right for Arizona and they are certainly not right for America."

In a scathing reply, Reynolds accused Emanuel of hypocrisy. Reynolds wrote that the Democrat had tried to recruit a candidate in Pennsylvania last year who "used the n-word with regard to his employees, a controversy that led to a local chapter of the NAACP calling for his removal from office. Your noble response was to stress that `there are two sides to every story,'" Reynolds wrote.

Graf defeated four opponents to win the primary on Sept. 12, running as the most conservative of the group. Immigration was a key topic in the race, with Graf emphasizing his determination to secure the border with Mexico and crack down on illegal immigrants.

Both parties sought to influence the outcome of the primary.

In an unusual move, the NRCC ran ads supporting Steven Huffman, and strategists at the time said they believed Graf could not be elected in the district.

Democrats, calculating that Graf would be easier to defeat in November, ran commercials attacking Huffman.

[conservativehistorian]

I blame the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee for at least part of the Graf deficit to Giffords. The RNCC spent >$130,000 in the primary campaign slandering Graf in an attempt to boost his opponent, Huffman. The consistent theme of these ads was that Graf was an extremist. Such repetition assuredly is reflected in part in the Star poll.
Moreover the RNCC, after pledging support for Randy in the November election, has without explanation has withdrawn all its TV ad revenue from this race.

My read is that the Washington Republican party is pissed at Randy for his support of en enforcement-first immigration program.

[axes_of_weezles]

It's not just the Washingtonians, which is the issue.

Jim Click, the local auto dealership magnate pressured the Chamber of Commerce to pressure the NRCC to fund his bud Huffman.

He carries alot of weight with the local media due to ad buys.

Jim Click does not own the voters, though.

The feeble minded who believe campaign ads and are moderate are the ones to be concerned about. Huffman and Kolbe are still spiteful and refusing to concede graciously.

The NRCC went the wrong way, Huffman may have spent up to $800k on his losing bid, rehashing ads from 2004 under Kolbe's tutelage. Giffords is using the same lame ads. Graf still won, even after the Chamber of Commerce and NRCC and neighboring states Republican parties funded Huffman. They all dug a hole and jumped in it, and are probably scared of retribution if Graf wins.

Graf is just the better candidate, and a better leader, plain and simple.

Giffords advertises herself as being the only one who can fix the border situation (a lie), a small business owner (a lie - she bankrupted and sold off the family business), and is espousing cut and run policies of the moonbat left; and is talking about socialized health care and more money for the education craphole.


Both Graf and Giffords, and Huffman for that matter, were Arizona state senators. Graf was the Majority whip for the Republicans. Huffman and Giffords are the same person as far as legislative policy goes; no original thought go along get along types. Randy was _The_ proponent of Arizona Prop 200 - denying Illegals voting by forcing voters to prove citizenship and residency with two photo ID's. He has something under his belt, whereas the other two cannot make local meetings, cannot attend to their elected local and state duties. Huffman did not even resign his State Senate seat to run for Congress, just like Giffords.

The local press has been spotty at reporting the truth of the campaign. Tucson Weekly has been the best at reporting accurately, probably because they do not depend on auto dealerships for ads like the TV, Radio and print media do.


My opinion would be for Graf to run spot radio ads at commute time on weekdays on the local radio stations; Between 7-9 AM and 4-5 PM to get around the local media blackout. He should just say what his policies are, since the local media will not allow him equal footing. He does not need to attack.

The locals are getting sick of the attack ads from the Rat campaigns.

[youthgonewild]

Thanks a lot to the 100 percenters who tanked Huffman, handing Giffords this seat.

[FrogMom]

Graf's response to the "He's an extremist" campaign was excellent.

He took all of their talking points and, essentially agreed with them, such as (paraphrasing), "Yes. I am EXTREMELY interested in protecting the border for the American people!"

I have met him, I like him, I voted for him.

I was polled, btw. The questions were good.

[defenderSD]

This will a horse race all the way to the finish. Graf will probably win by a narrow margin, leaving the Dims in an incredulous frenzy.

[conservativehistorian]

I would have been satisfied with 75% from Huffman - didn't get it in either the legislature or the campaign. All I got were negative and destructive "extremist" ads. Huffman does not even have the decency to concede the race to Graf even today.

[axes_of_weezles]

1. Huffman was not and is not a Conservative or hold Conservative principles in the least. He's a me me me me Me Liberal who votes with Democrats in the legislature. He was and is easily paid off by monied interests. 2. As a legislator he voted with Democrats 85 to 90% of the time 3. He ran while still holding his seat as a State legislator and did not serve and does not serve his constituents 4. He Lost. He is a Loser 5. He has still not conceded. He lost. The Loser has not been gracious enough to put his support behind the winner. 6. He has no original thoughts or policies. He's Kolbe's monkey butt boy. He used 2 year old campaign ads and slogans. If he cant hold an original thought, he cant hold against a Rat onslaught. 7. 100 Percenters my ass. It's the RINOS, Homosexual lobby and weak minded who were supporting Huffman. No position is still a position. 8. The NRCC went against their own promises to stay out of the primary. 9. Huffman spent around $800k of NRCC, Other State Republican Party and PAC monies to lose the race. He cannot manage money, why should he be a Congressman? 10. Dont beleive media coming from DC. They are wrong, and the beltway bandits do not represent this district. 11. Are you french? Have a white flag up in the face of a little adversity? Are you on the right forum?

[fieldmarshaldj]

Yeah, better to nominate a liberal RINO for the seat whose record was indistinguishable from the 'Rat running. Brilliant. Not.

[sabe@q.com]

Well our Dem Gov is up by 16 pts so this could be legit.

[youthgonewild]

Are you french? Have a white flag up in the face of a little adversity? Are you on the right forum?

Maybe Speaker Pelosi will send you a nice fruit basket in November for your tireless efforts to help her cause.

[axes_of_weezles]

Are you in the right forum, RINO?

[zbigreddogz]

Wow, I've heard of self parody before, but this is rediculous.

How old are you?

[axes_of_weezles]

Older than you junior a**bite.

[zbigreddogz]

I'm sure of that, I previously figured you were young enough to still have all of your marbles.

I was obviously wrong about that. You've obviously lost a few.

[Ben Ficklin]

a**wipe is far more effective than a**bite

[axes_of_weezles]

I guess I'm not up to your low standards of RINOhood, and support of amnesty for lawbreakers.

I know what you will be saying about support of Rudy if he ever gets the nod, and will gladly reference your current conversations here about support of Republican nominees in 2008.

I still wont be as pliable as any of your phony nominees.

Deal with the hand that's been led.

[Ben Ficklin]

Rudy who-dy?

[zbigreddogz]

I don't know where you get these rant ideas, or what Rudy Giuliani has to do with this, but I have never once said that I wouldn't support Graf over his Democratic opponent if I lived in his district.

I've only said that I think he's a poor candidate and that I think he'll lose. I stick by that.

But unlike you, apparently, I'm not a RINO and, with almost no exceptions, I support the nominee of my party.

So feel free to bring up any comments here should Rudy Giuliani get the nomination in '08.

P.S. I am virtually certain that I WILL NOT support Giuliani in the primary, and will vote for him in the general should he be the nominee only grugingly.

[zbigreddogz]

Don't try to make sense of his rants. It's worthless.

I'm pretty sure he's either some bored 14-year-old kid or 87-year-old man who's lost his marbles.

[Ben Ficklin]

He used to be worse.

[zbigreddogz]

Really? Wow, I'd like to see that.

That would make him even worse then Extremely Extreme Extremist.

[Ben Ficklin]

Crotchety old men

[Pelham]

Wow. The weenie-con strikes back with the dreaded Pelosi threat.

[axes_of_weezles]

"I've only said that I think he's a poor candidate and that I think he'll lose. I stick by that. "

You said a bit more than that.

You sayeth, or another poster using your stage personality said:

" The Tancredo people 'say' they are only against illegal immigration, they really don't see a difference between legal and illegal immigrants. When you force them to take a position on many 'legal' forms of immigration, they are almost always against that too. So it isn't really the illegality they object to, it's the immigration part. Sure, they might object more strongly to the illegal immigrant, but it doesn't change the fact that they are still anti-legal-immigrant as well."

" You are aware that every poll has Graf down by double digits, aren't you?"

"They TRIED to get someone else. They even pushed for him in the primary. Unfortunately, the Tancrediacks won. With only 43% of the vote, mind you."

"You don't pick divisive, one-issue candidates in marginal districts. Graf's already behind by 10% and will probably lose. Kolbe isn't helping, but the anti-immigration extremist need to take a hard look in the mirror for the problem in this race."

"The NRCC was right. You don't nominate one-issue candidates who seem to rival Howard Dean on the need for anger management."

"Pressing the so-called 'Border Security' issue won't save him. It's the fact that he's seen as a one-issue extremist. Which, frankly, he seems to be if his campaign is any indicator. "

"Graf was pretty vicious when he ran against Kolbe in the primary. While I disagree with Kolbe's decision, I think Graf is largely the author of his own problems."

It seems to me you are the one noter, with lack of thought prior to engaging posts. And a one noter who may support conservatives as a last choice.

You seem to have pigeonholed me as a Tancredoite. Shows how little depth of thought you really have and a simpleminded lack of judgement on your part.

This is not California or Washington State. You know little or care to know little of the demographics of this area, and are probably personally involved with Kolbe or someone close to Kolbe. Maybe you dont want to lose your day laborer/slaves/housekeepers.

You Say the NRCC was right to withdraw funds from Graf, but then comment how they are wrong in expecting losing the House and seats in the House in another thread. Kind of hard to believe what you post.

Your posts sound like a Huffman ad. Too bad your guy lost. and Graf will win the general.

[axes_of_weezles]

You are supposed to ping folks you talk about.

Protocol, youknow.

[phillyfanatic]

That is true and a real problem for the Pubs. How Janet got the cred on enforcing the border, taxes et al, I will never understand in Az. Just what do the Dems promise in Az that seems to be carrying the day in more than the guv's race? And does Goldwater have a chance to win?

[zbigreddogz]

And the things you posted contradict what I just said HOW?!?!?!?!

This is not California or Washington State.

Yah, clearly, California is nowhere near the border. :rolls eyes:

You know little or care to know little of the demographics of this area,

AH!!! And finally, we reach the truth. It's not about illegal immigrants, it's not about the rule of law, it's not about national security, if it were just about these things, you'd be open to a sensible plan like the Pence plan. Instead, it's about 'demographics' about the fact that you want less Mexicans in your district because Mexicans are 'bad'.

and are probably personally involved with Kolbe or someone close to Kolbe. Maybe you dont want to lose your day laborer/slaves/housekeepers.

Oh please! I've never met him or even been in his district. And even if I was the biggest Kolbe fan in the world (I'm not and never have been, I disagree with several of his positions, although I appreciate his work on free trade), it wouldn't make anything I say wrong.

You attack me as a person because you are incapable of actually arguing on any of the actual points.

And the 'slave' insult just proves that you are desperate. Only in DU land would an insult like this fly.

You Say the NRCC was right to withdraw funds from Graf, but then comment how they are wrong in expecting losing the House and seats in the House in another thread. Kind of hard to believe what you post.

Certainly, you are not so unlearned or illogical that you are unfamiliar with the concept of a strategic retreat.

You show me a general that never retreats, and I'll show you one who's going to lose the war.

Just because Graf is likely to lose doesn't mean they will lose the house. I fully expect J.D. Haworth to hang on. I expect Heather Wilson to hang on. I expect Clay Shaw to hang on. I think at least 2 of the endangered Conneticuit Reps. will hang on. I think at least two of the endangered Indiana reps will hold on, we will not lose either Navada seat, I don't think we'll lose any seats in New York, I don't think we'll lose more then 1 in Ohio, I don't think we'll lose more then one in Pennsylvania, I think we may topple Chet Edwards, I think Mac Collins may win his comeback race, I think Melissa Bean is going down, etc.

But clearly, you aren't really talking logic here. So go on beliving what you will. Just know how desperate and silly you are making yourself look.

and Graf will win the general.

I honestly hope you are right. It is important that we hang on to the house.

But just so you know, you'll be getting a huge 'I told you so!' should he lose.

[Ben Ficklin]

In spite of what the thread spinners say, Huffman lost the primary, not because of Graf, but because the moderate vote was split between Huffman and Hellon.

In spite of what the thread spinners say, the republican money was not spent to campaign against Graf, but to unite the moderates. The republican party knows that, while Graf's support is somewhat narrow, it is extremely deep and spending money trying to jar loose a Graf supporter would be a waste of money, something the republicans are short of.

[sabe@q.com]

Its the woman factor.