Venezuelan Election: Chavez's Opponent Manuel Rosales Gains Ground in Race (Translation)

El Universal ( Caracas, Venezuela ) ^ | September 25, 2006 | Elvia Gomez ( translated by self )

[StJacques]

In nine states Rosales surpasses the President

Elvia Gomez
El Universal (Caracas)

Jose Vicente Carrasquero, manager of the campaign command of the opposition candidate, announced that next Wednesday Manuel Rosales will present his government plan in the matter of citizen security, while later he will expound upon ideas in matters of housing construction and about the treatment the military sector will have which, he put forth, will be strictly attached to that which the Constitution forsees.

In a press conference, accompanied by the ex candidate for the presidency of the republic, Roberto Smith (Venezuela First Party), Carrasquero explained that, according to data shown by recent regional polls, Rosales has managed to surpass the serving Chief Executive in the electoral preference in the states of Zulia, Lara, Falcon, Tachira, Miranda, Carabobo, Apure, Delta Amacuro y Amazonas.

"We are pleasantly surprised," he said, that the "numbers are near those of Chavez in [the state of] Vargas" and that a "technical tie" exists in [the states of] Bolivar and Guarico. In the concrete case of the state of Miranda, the spokesman stressed the rebound, especially in the municipality of Sucre (Petare).

Asked about the effect which the fear of reprisals may have on the results and the trustworthiness of the surveys which put Rosales in first place, Carrasquero said that the technical aspects [of the polls] are maximized, so that those questioned do not fear to express their true intention of voting.

He stressed that the rebound of Rosales is a product of the direct contacts which Manuel Rosales has carried out with more than 200,000 people in 39 cities (16 states), in a trip that has taken him more than 168 kilometers.

He insisted upon the importance which the plan against crime has, since one must put the brakes on "the shame of this government which has been incapable of articulating an efficient plan" against the [criminal] underworld.

[StJacques]

Tossing down poll results among Freepers is like feeding raw meat to zoo animals; we know how to tear them up. The fact that the polls were conducted by the opposition candidate's campaign leads us to think that there is an attempt to spin the results in their favor; the absence of hard numbers, which may be the newspaper's fault, does not encourage us; and our own knowledge of Chavez's ability to use intimidation -- note that the above article makes clear that "the fear of reprisals" could skew the results -- does not give us much hope that Rosales will be able to mount a successful challenge. But I have been paying attention to the Venezuelan election campaign somewhat and I'm going to suggest that the results released in the above article are believable.

There is external evidence from independent pollsters that Rosales is gaining ground fast on Chavez. It was only last month that the opposition parties united around Rosales, and the numbers from independent pollsters then placed his support at something like 17% to 19% and over thirty-five percent behind Chavez. Two very recent independent polls now suggest the situation is quite different. The recent release of a Hinterlaces Poll has it Chavez 48% Rosales 30%, and a Penn, Schoen and Berland Poll has it 50%-37% Chavez. When framed in the context of these two recent independent opinion polls, the above report from the Rosales campaign looks credible.

To digest these results, we must keep both population distribution and geography in mind. Most of the nine states listed are not very populous, as Venezuela's population is primarily located in the northern areas of the country, especially around Caracas. The U.S. Department of State's Venezuela Information Page says that 85% of Venezuela's 26+ million people are concentrated in urban areas in the northern portion of the country. Obviously, the Federal District of Caracas is the most densely populated as are its adjoining regions. But even then, the claims of the Rosales campaign bear closer examination, as the following map of Venezuelan states demonstrates.

Venezuela States Map	States Rosales Claims to Lead
	Amazonas Apure Carabobo Delta Amacuro Falcon Lara Miranda Tachira Zulia
	States Rosales Claims a "Technical Tie"
	Bolivar Guarico
	State Rosales Claims to be Gaining Ground
	Vargas

So as you can see, there are reasons to be hopeful given that there is a large geographical area in which Rosales is gaining popularity and in the states of Carabobo, Miranda, Guarico, and Vargas he is beginning to penetrate the most populous areas of the country.

I want to be clear that I do not believe that Rosales will be able to win the election because I am convinced that Chavez has corrupted the electoral process to a degree significant enough to guarantee his victory. But at the same time I believe that it is possible for Rosales to make a strong enough showing that Chavez and his regime will not be able to execute their electoral crimes in the dark and THAT is where things will turn south for Chavez and his regime, both within Venezuela and especially abroad on the international stage. I do intend to keep an eye on this in the future.

[StJacques]

For everyone interested, I am putting together a "Latin American Left Watch" ping list, which will not only include Chavez and Venezuela, but other Latin American Left issues such as the FARC in Colombia, Morales in Bolivia, and more. If anyone would like to be on this list you can either ping me on this thread or Freepmail me and I will include you.

P.S. - If you were pinged to this post I've got you on it.

[MikeA]

Well, the vote fraud efforts and the attempts to intimidate and even kill Rosales supporters by Hugo Chavez thugs will now have to kick into high gear!

[airborne]

Is there even a snowball's chance that Chavez won't steal the election?

[M1Tanker]

Looking at Chavez's past actions, I see a fatal "accident" heading for Rosales. Chavez, like 99.999% of all dictators, hates competition and like the same majority of socialists/communists, he cannot see why anyone would oppose him. Therefore Chavez imprisons them or simply executes them for the "good of the State and people".

The capitalization of "State" and not "people" reflects the true feelings and policies highlighting what is more important to a socialist/communist or any other dictator (like islamofacists).

[jazusamo]

Thanks for your analysis, it sounds like a realistic one.

[jbwbubba]

Don't worry, I'm sure Jimmy Carter will be on hand to make sure things go fair and smooth.

[kokonut]

Hey, is Jimmy Carter watching this election to make sure that Chavez wins the race?

[VRWCTexan]

No - because Jimmy Carter will once again be there to assure that the cheating and voter fraud is all nice and "legal"...

[kokonut]

BTW, any Venezuelan bloggers out there blogging about the election...in an honest fashion?

[jazusamo]

Yeah, you're probably right. Jimmah should move to Venezuela and stay there.

[LegendHasIt]

I'm sure jimmy carter will be down there to help him steal it, then 'certify' the election as the most honest election in history ......
Just as he did last time.

Then go on to say publicly and loudly that he wishes that USA elections were as honest and well run......
Just as he did last time.

[N. Beaujon]

There is no such thing as a non-rigged election in a Latin American country. Wont happen.

[camas]

depends on the military

[redgolum]

Please put me on the list.

[Gay State Conservative]

This guy had better pray that El Commandante gets at least 90% of the vote,otherwise....well,the Amazon region is wide,desolate and dangerous.

[LegendHasIt]

You guys are faster than me... Tapping things in from a PDA slows me way down.

But pointing out the idiocy of jimmy carter is worth repeating often.

[proud_yank]

PING – Hugo is at it again!

Please FReepmail me if you would like on/off the Hugo/Venezuela Ping list.

HugoPing Archive

[Brilliant]

I think Chavez is going to have to commit a Venezuelan holocaust before he'll be ousted.

[proud_yank]

We could move the UN there too!

[roses of sharon]

Thanks again for getting us this information.

[jazusamo]

Excellent idea, all the blame America crowd could hob nob with Hugo and Jimmah while his "democratic" government guarantees their safety.

[conservative in nyc]

Venezuelan State Population figures from Wikipedia (Rosales claimed leading states in bold). If the figures are correct, Rosales claims to lead in states with about 48% of the Venezuelan population, and be technically tied in states with another 8.25% or so:

By population # State Population (2005 estimates)

1 Zulia 3,520,376 13.1
2 Miranda 2,789,073 10.3
3 Ven.Cap.Dist. 2,284,291 8.5
4 Carabobo 2,106,264 8.38
5 Lara 1,751,625 6.75
6 Aragua 1,629,433 6.28
7 Bolívar 1,490,612 5.58
8 Anzoátegui 1,440,876 5.3
9 Táchira 1,145,374 4.5
10 Sucre 895,978 3.53
11 Falcón 877,386 3.45
12 Portuguesa 848,259 3.34
13 Monagas 828,363 3.26
14 Mérida 819,760 3.1
15 Barinas 730,407 2.87
16 Guárico 723,965 2.85
17 Trujillo 691,908 2.58
18 Yaracuy 499,049 2.16
19 Apure 457,685 1.79
20 Nueva Esparta 426,337 1.66
21 Vargas 329,447 1.29
22 Cojedes 291,234 1,14
23 Delta Amacuro 149,427 0.42
24 Amazonas 136,506 0.3

[StJacques]

Wow, why didn't I think to check the Wikipedia population figures? I just Googled a quick "Venezuela Population States" search, landed on the DOS page and posted that.

Thank you very much conservative in nyc! You've had a habit of being most helpful.

[Antoninus]

Elections in Venezuela are a joke. The only way Chugo will ever leave office is in a box after receiving hot lead therapy. He's a commie. Rule #1 for commie dictators is "Don't leave office voluntarily."

[freedumb2003]

Thanks St J!

[conservative in nyc]

Obviously, how much Rosales is ahead in the 9 states and how far behind he is in the other states matters a great deal. Winning 9 states 51%-49% won't do much if Chavez wins/steals 99% of the vote in the remaining 13.

[zbigreddogz]

Umm, it wouldn't matter if he were 80pts ahead. Elections in Venezuela have been corrupted beyond recognition in Venezuela. They had problems before Chavez, but he basically ruined them.

It's amazing how much easier it is to win when your political appointees run every polling place and you can add fictitious names to the voter rolls anytime you want.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Hi Saint:
Although I need to focus exclusively on Mexico due to time-constraints, I welcome being on any ping list you have for our neighbor. Meanwhile, for the sigh column... a fight between PANistas & ObraGorians just ensued where Felipe was...

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/377532.html

[StJacques]

Yeah, I saw that. I think that AMLO's peaceful civil resistance movement has now shown its true colors; violent intimidation. Over time this will make them very unpopular. Everyone in Mexico knows that the PRD had to journey to Guanajuato to pick that fight.

[kesg]

There is going to be an election in Venezuela? That's news to me. It would be even bigger news if it was actually fair and honest under current conditions.

[Shuttle Shucker]

I don't know if you're aware of this ping list index but if not, yours definitely warrant being included:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1608368/posts

[StJacques]

Thank you for that info Shuttle Shucker. I have just FreepMailed cgk suggesting that he create a new "Foreign Affairs" category and that my two lists should be entitled the "Mexican Affairs" and "Latin American Left Watch" lists.

[Founding Father]

>>>BTW, any Venezuelan bloggers out there blogging about the election...in an honest fashion?<<<<

Try this one:

http://www.caracaschronicles.blogspot.com/

---

Focus, damn it, focus!

Sorry to carp, but seeing this story about Rosales's campaign on Globovision's website made me despair all over again.

The Globo journo had to write up five - count them, FIVE - different themes in a five paragraph piece to cover what Rosales had said. So what's a poor voter to make of it? Is this campaign about how much Rosales loves Jesus? Or is it about maintaining the misiones? or opposing the fingerpring scanners? Or about public employees' pay? or is it about poll numbers?

The problem is that Rosales doesn't have an elevator speech - he has six or seven of them, which he mixes and matches in a not-very-coherent way. The guy needs to settle on ONE elevator speech, and he needs to be much, much more focused on it as he campaigns.

Because the torrent of different themes, with no connecting thread running through them, just dillutes his message. It stops him from imposing his vision of what this campaign is about. And it wastes the very narrow window of opportunity he has to win over people outside his already committed base.

Message discipline is as much about what you deliberately don't say - to avoid drawing attention away from your elevator speech - as it is about the elevator speech itself. No doubt many voters will find it heartwarming that he intends to govern under divine guidance, but that is not in his elevator speech so he should not be talking about it.

Staying on message when fielding questions
Granted, Rosales was fielding questions at an impromptu press huddle. Still, if he can't wrestle control of the agenda when talking to stenographing journos, what chance does he have against Chávez? A key part of message discipline is learning to answer any question anyone throws at you in a way that brings the discussion back to your elevator speech.
Q: Do you think Bush is the devil?
A: I think Chavez said that to distract our attention. After all, he promised to distribute oil rents to everyone's benefit, but he didn't follow through. Too much oil money is going to other countries and to corrupt officials, and common people only get their hands on it if they wear a red t-shirt...

Q: What about collective bargaining for public employees' pay?
A: The public employees have been subjected to the same political exclusions everyone else has. In my presidency, we will make sure that oil money is distributed fairly and cleanly, with no exclusions.

Q: What about the fingerprint scanners?
A: The government still thinks it can intimidate people into voting the way they want, because no one wants to risk their mision money. They're holding the people's oil money hostage, and that's wrong. Venezuelans are tired of this kind of exclusion, they're tired of having to put on a red t-shirt just to make ends meet. With Mi Negra everyone will get an equal share of the pie: chavistas, non chavistas, and everyone in between.

Q: Will you keep the misiones?
A: Of course we will, but they will be better. Everybody knows that too much Mision money is being stolen by corrupt officials, or funding hospitals and housing in other countries. In my presidency, we will make sure that doesn't happen.

Q: How about the polls?
A: The polls show that every day, more people agree that Chavez did not keep his promise to spend our oil money for every Venezuelan's benefit...etc.

This is a basic political skill, folks, almost a stereotype. A candidate should never answer the question he's asked; he must always answer the question he wanted to be asked.

Looking at it from Pepe Apolítico's standpoint...
Why is this important? Because the vast majority of people - and especially of NiNis - spend far less time thinking about politics than you and me.

The people Rosales needs to win over do not sit down to read the newspaper, much less a political website. When the news comes on the radio, they instinctively reach for the dial to scan for music.

They do not seek out political information, and they do not absorb it in big long chunks. They get it in little shards. A few seconds of news overheard on the radio. A glimpsed headline. A couple of soundbytes from the TV news report. That's your window of opportunity for reaching them. And you can't waste even a second of that, because CNE has limited paid ads on TV to just 4 per day!

Unless you focus on a single storyline, the information such voters get becomes totally muddled.

In today's little shard, Pepe Apolítico hears that guy from Zulia talking about how much he loves Jesus. The day before, he heard him going on about some voting machines. Before that, something about some black girl in his family - didn't understand what that was about. Maybe tomorrow he talks about collective bargaining for public employees - but hell, he's a buhonero, collective bargaining has exactly no meaning for him.

Messages conveyed in this way do not help to build up a narrative, a coherent storyline that answers, in Pepe Apolítico's mind, the question of what this campaign is about.

Only if the message is focused can Pepe Apolítico really take on board the storyline Rosales wants to establish as THE thing that's at stake in this election. And if Rosales can't seize control of the agenda, it'll be very hard for him to win.

---

The story referred was in Spanish so I couldn't translate and my kids that do speak and read it are unavailable.

[Founding Father]

>>BTW, any Venezuelan bloggers out there blogging about the election...in an honest fashion?<<

...and another:


http://vcrisis.com/index.php?content=home

---

He only offers fear

Teodoro Petkoff in Tal Cual

The candidate of continuity is feeling in his spine the chill of uncertainty and the fear of losing. He feels the ground moving and that his gunpowder is wet. Up to now, he has only made two new electoral offers, the creation of a single party and his indefinite reelection. Everything else is the same scratched vinyl that not even his supporters listen to anymore. But, besides this, in the face of this empty electoral offer, he resorts without shame to the use of fear as an electoral instrument. Not happy with having created a generalized atmosphere of fear in the whole country, he now devotes his time to scare his own voters. His last witticism was that of “warning” that if Rosales wins “the Cubans” (That’s exactly what he said, he did not even mention the doctors) would be kicked out of the country and Barrio Adentro would be eliminated.

One would think that such a ridiculous argument would be left aside by the candidate of continuity and given to his minions of fourth or fifth level and he would continue navigating the skies of the debate of ideas that VP Rangel is calling for. The squalidness of his last “massive” rallies, his reluctance to visit the popular barrios, the certainty that recently he has been screwing up way above his usual standards on that matter, have led him to personally assume the handling of the campaign of fear.

He is going to fail. He is sub estimating the intelligence of his listeners; nobody can be that stupid to believe that Rosales, who has presented a social program (“Mi Negra”) aimed at taking care of the needs of the poorest sectors of our society, at the same time that he implements economic and employment programs to promote investment and create jobs, could have in mind eliminating social programs. In fact, the Zulia Governorship maintains a whole set of them, much better implemented than those of the central government, which represent the best counter argument to the strategy of fear.

With respect to the social programs (“Misiones”), the policy will be one of assembling them with “Mi Negra”, freeing them of the corruption, waste and political sectarianism that accompanies them today, to guarantee their clean management and that access to them is not conditioned to any sort of party toll.

Barrio Adentro will be opened to Venezuelan medical doctors, to base it on Venezuelans and not on foreign professionals.

As long as the presence of these is necessary (because the substitution of such numerous personnel is not possible overnight), their contract with them will no longer be a mystery and will be made in an open and clearly budgeted way. Only someone brain dead would eliminate a primary medical assistance system like Barrio Adentro. But you can be sure that Barrio Afuera, that is the hospitals and health clinics that are today bare, will be the subject of a special program for their recovery and endowment.

The serpent has bitten its own tail. Fear has now reached the Great Terrorizer of the county.

---

This blogger is probably on the optimistic side.

[Founding Father]

Would you like to be fingerprinted?

http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/


Finger printing the Venezuelan voter


There are some debates that I try to avoid as I deem them “trapos rojos” (decoys), thrown by chavismo (and some time opposition) to distract people from the real issues. Perhaps the most famous one is the CNE fraud machinery, something that chavismo loves to see opposition politicians discussing instead of discussing all of the Chavez administration shortcomings where they would have a field day. In this Chavez benefits from the tendency of some politicians to favor comfortable A.C. TV studios to campaign against Chavez in lieu of hitting the dirt roads and humble neighborhoods, just as Rosales is doing these days, to great success. Then again, there is a reason why Rosales has become the unity candidate of the opposition and one reason why the Ledezmas and AD and others are left in Caracas pondering whatever happened to them.

But on occasion I must visit these electoral issues anyway and today it is the finger printing machines.

First, in an acknowledged reference to the increasing power of blogging, the recent debate one the usefulness of fingerprinting machine is making it more to newspapers, even if credit is not fully awarded. Nothing surprising there, newspapers everywhere are afraid of the power of good blogging and Venezuela is becoming fast a region full of excellent bloggers. Not necessarily because we are a particularly bright sort, but because we have to deal with such wily adversaries and compensate for a rather deficient press in matters of in deep and long ranging investigations. In particular when there is a lot of numbers involved, such as PDVSA or electoral issues, journalists are not too happy preferring to devote themselves to more scandalous and front pages news such as the Anderson case, nearing its Nth star witness, and no where near completion.

This El Universal expediente, based in part on the work of Bruni and Miguel, simply questions the suitability of the finger printing machines for the goal they were bought for. That is, it seems that the electronic investment that should be made to have a real time verification of the finger print of an elector has not been made. Thus one legitimately can wonder what is the real use of the finger print machines. Miguel wisely does not speculate much on it, but since it well known that I am unwise I am not afraid to thread that path.

Let’s focus on the problem briefly.

The elector reaches its voting station. His finger print is lifted and sent electronically to Caracas. There it is compared to a data bank which is now above 10 million prints (recent ID delivering operations were combined with finger print collection which allow me to guess that, adding finger prints collected at elections, as much as 10 million finger prints already exist at the CNE, which by the way does not come clear on such numbers).

It is quite obvious that the process requires sometime and can be only carried away with super fast computing system of which there is no clear evidence that it exists in the bowels of the Caracas CNE. From bloggers’s work, the time delay seem unacceptable to allow a free flowing election day, with the added risk that the system could come crashing at any time. When one looks at the expense bestowed on a system that offers no guarantees, one wonders which are the real reasons, when the traditional ink died finger seems to work as well as the finger printing machines at a fraction of the cost!

So, which could be the reasons?

Someone made a buck out of it. Jorge Rodriguez, a former obscure public servant who became the CNE head that forced through the finger printing system, lives now in regular splendor in Altamira, and crashes brand new Audi late at night. The reader may draw its own inferences.

The finger printing machines are really destined for some other usage. Two possibilities here.

By careful selection of the centers from which the finger print data is collected, chavismo can figure how the voting progresses. With the help of the Tascon (1) list the government can determine very easily how strongly the opposition electorate is making its presence felt at the ballot box, and how many chavistas are actually voting. This precious information, already available by mid morning, could spur some reaction from the government, ranging from ferrying in a haste chavistas that tend to stay home to preparing an actual electoral fraud by reprogramming some voting machines such as it is alleged to have happened at the Recall election of 2004, with now rather good evidence.

The other possible political usage of the finger printing machines is to scare away the opposition voter from the ballot, while forcing the chavista voter to participate if s/he wants to retain its misiones benefits. This is very simple to do once the perception of loss of the vote secret has permeated the population. It does not matter actually whether the finger printing machines can actually pierce the secret of the ballot, it is enough to have people think it can. And in the country of the Tascon list this notion is indeed very simple to put in people’s mind.

Thus it is clear to perceive where lies the real interest of the finger printing machines: psychological war against any opposition campaign effort. It is thus good strategy that Rosales has refused to get burdened by a sterile debate on finger printing which only can be won by the government. Instead, if Rosales manages a strong movement that has a chance to unseat Chavez, then the finger printing will become a non issue as people will not care to risk been pegged voting against Chavez since this one will not be around to harass them.

Very simple indeed, and yet another mark on how well Rosales is running his campaign so far, refusing to let Chavez set the agenda.

--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1) the Tascon list is the list of the names of all people that have signed the Recall election petition and who have since been branded enemies of the regime. Many of these people have met all sorts of discrimination. With time the Tascon list has created a modern apartheid when to it was added the names of all the people that were receiving misiones benefits and thus rated as pro Chavez. This new Maisanta list is widely used in many government offices to decide who gets what. References on the right side of this page.

[supremedoctrine]

Please put me on the Ping LIst!! Chavez was parading around here in what I dearly hoped would be his Last Hurrah, since I knew he was being challenged and the election was not too long a ways off: We should figure out a way to try to involve ourselves in this election, sort of as anti-Jimmy Carters, with whose help the corrupt Chavez probably won last time. I get the very strong impression that Chavez has been too busy working on his fantasy role as the new reborn Fidel Castro, the oil-rich World Leader of the NonAligned Movement to give his own country his attention, and I sense large numbers of Venezuelans sense it also.

[BLS]

"Venezuelan Election: Chavez's Opponent Manuel Rosales Gains Ground in Race (Translation)"


If Rosales wasa threat, he'd already be room temperature.

[Alia]

>i>If you were pinged to this post I've got you on it.

Good! Thank you.

[Stultis]

I think Chavez is going to have to commit a Venezuelan holocaust before he'll be ousted.

He's made an excellent start, at least in terms of an economic "holocaust":

The Truth About Venezuela (Shocking Video) ^

Posted by Stultis On News/Activism ^ 08/07/2006 9:51:26 PM CDT · 34 replies · 1,994+ views YouTube ^ | 2005 | DNAX Productions Believe it or not there's more than thuggery, political murder, smashing of the presses, arming of narco-terrorists, and hobnobbing with Castro and the crazy mullahs in Tehran. Chavez, despite record oil revenues, is presiding over the Cubanization of Venezuela. Video uses simple before (1998) and after (2005) images. See Hugo's "Beautiful Revolution".

[StJacques]

redgolum and supremedoctrine, I have put you both on the ping list.

[StJacques]

". . . We should figure out a way to try to involve ourselves in this election, sort of as anti-Jimmy Carters, with whose help the corrupt Chavez probably won last time. . . ."

The truth is that Chavez actually did win last time, primarily because the opposition to him divided amongst themselves and never developed an alternative to Chavez that could compete for the vote of Venezuela's poor, who are quite numerous and recently radicalized by Chavez and his followers.

But this time things are different. The opposition is unifying and there is a clear alternative in Rosales. I do not want to mislead anyone into thinking that Rosales is some kind of conservative, because he's nothing of the sort. Rosales is still pursuing an agenda based upon large government subsidies to the poor in Venezuela. But the differences between Rosales and Chavez are marked. Rosales is extremely critical of Chavez for his close contacts with Cuba, Iran, and China. Rosales also desires the restoration of Venezuelan oil production -- he's from the state of Zulia, the center of Venezuela's oil industry -- and he wants American technocratic help to return to the country to assist in the process. Rosales is also pointing out the horrific corruption Chavez has instituted, the intimidation of the political opposition, and the growth in both organized crime -- especially drug trafficking -- and random violence in the country. Finally; Rosales is a committed Roman Catholic who has some widespread appeal among the religious poor in Venezuela, which is a real factor. If you put all of these together, you have the potential for a legitimate challenge to Chavez.

[Founding Father]

http://blogs.salon.com/0001330/2006/09/26.html#a3078

Damage Control on the massacre, but no punishment on cover up?

Some damage control on the part of the Government, which in the end only complicates matters:

--Chavez recognizes there was “excessive use of weapons” and cynically begins talking about the human rights record of the Government as if Fort Mara, Puente El Llaguno, Plaza Altamira (twice) and many others had occurred in some other era. Maybe someone should show him the video of the song by Panaminian Ruben Blades Prohibido Olvidar.


We are still waiting for those guilty of Fort Mara to be charged. (In fact Chavez said one day it was a media scandal and the surviving soldier had light injuries, he died that night). Chavez admits that there was no confrontation.

--Chacon says there were “only” six people dead, in a slip of a tongue, which may have meant, thanks God there were only six.

--Andres Velasquez takes the Government to task, saying that the Government first denied the event ha taken place, then it said there was a confrontations between miners, then the Minister said it was a confrontation between the military and the miners and now the President admits there was “excessive use of weapons” and expresses doubts about the version of a confrontation. Velasquez ratifies that there are ten people dead, in contrast with Chacon’s “only six” version. Who is right?

--The Brazilian Foreign Ministry office announces that it has asked the Venezuelan Government for "detailed information" on the event, as some of the "seven" dead are Brazilian, introducing a new number for the deaths as well as a new monkey wrench into the affair.

The problem is that the law in the whole Bolivar mining region has become the Law of the Jungle as the military tries to enrich itslef (What else is new?) at the expense of the miners. There continued to be reports that a lot of gold owned by the miners is missing and that there are some miners that have yet to be found.


From a punlic relations point of view, the problem at this time is that the President and the Minister of the Interior and Justice are giving versions which are exactly the opposite of what both the Minister of Defense, General Ivan Baduell and the Governor of Bolivar State, retired General Francisco Rangel Gomez have said, not once but three times, falling into a trap of too many contradictions.

Will they then punish only some lowly soldiers for the massacre and not the high ranking Government officials for trying to cover the massacre three times, as well as covering up what the source of the conflict is?

[StJacques]

"Will they then punish only some lowly soldiers for the massacre and not the high ranking Government officials for trying to cover the massacre three times, as well as covering up what the source of the conflict is?"

No one is going to be punished. That's the entire reason for the conflicting stories, to create such confusion that everyone can stand around and say that "the interests of justice cannot be served by merely lashing out because we're angry, we have to get to the truth."

Hugo, you can't handle the truth.

[StJacques]

This is a "heads up" post to let you all know that Chavez's opponent, Manuel Rosales, gave a big speech today announcing his platform, which is overwhelmingly a law-and-order proposal. I've just begun translating it and I will be posting it in a new thread later this evening, I'm guessing between 7:00 - 7:30 p.m. Central Time, so you might want to look for it. Even though I translate rather quickly, it is a long article.

For any of you who may be able to read Spanish it is at:

http://www.eluniversal.com/2006/09/27/pol_ava_27A783319.shtml

More to come ...

[Shuttle Shucker]

7-11 will no longer offer Chavez's Citgo gas:

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4218565.html

[StJacques]

I have been pinged from several FreeRepublic threads on this subject today. The State of Florida wants turnpike Citgo stations removed as well. And there's more.

[Enterprise]

I wonder what his chances are of winning. How is it possible to have a free and honest election in Venezuela now?

[StJacques]

I rate his chances of winning at about 35%, which is to say "not good." But I rate his chances of exposing Chavez's "fraud of democracy" at about 80%, which is to say I expect both national and international opinions of Chavez will change dramatically as a result of this campaign. Rosales is going to be a martyr for Democracy and I'm of a mind that, for that reason, he deserves our attention and our respect.

[UpToHere]

ping