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Polls find Democrats ahead in 3 vital states (Mason-Dixon, DeWine -2, Burns -7, Corker -1)
The State ^ | 1 October 2006 | Steven Thomma

Posted on 09/30/2006 10:13:58 PM PDT by okstate

WASHINGTON — Democrats are slightly ahead of Republican incumbents in three election battleground states that will help determine control of the Senate, a series of polls released Sunday showed.

In Montana, Democrat Jon Tester had the support of 47 percent of registered voters, while incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns had the support of 40 percent.

In Ohio, Democrat Rep. Sherrod Brown had 45 percent of registered voters, while incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine had 43 percent.

In Tennessee, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. had 43 percent, and former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, the Republican Senate nominee, had 42 percent.

Democrats probably must win all three races if they’re to take back control of the Senate on Nov. 7. They need to gain six seats overall, and these three are among the six seats held by Republicans that are considered most vulnerable.

Another Republican incumbent, Sen. George Allen of Virginia, was locked in a 43 percent to 43 percent dead heat with Democratic challenger James Webb, according to a poll released Friday by McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC.

The surveys underscored how much these states are up for grabs and how much rides on the final five weeks of campaigning. The work of both major parties to get their supporters to turn out on Election Day could prove decisive. One in 10 voters remain undecided in Montana and Ohio, 12 percent in Virginia and 14 percent in Tennessee.

The polls were all conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. for newspapers in each of the states — Lee Newspapers in Montana, the Cleveland Plain Dealer in Ohio and the Memphis Commercial Appeal and Chattanooga Times Free Press in Tennessee. Each state poll was of 625 registered voters and had an error margin of plus or minus four percentage points. The polls were taken between Monday and Thursday.

Mason-Dixon conducted a broader series of polls for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC in seven other closely fought Senate battleground states. Virginia results were released Friday, and the other six will be released Monday.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Montana; US: Ohio; US: Tennessee
KEYWORDS: 2006; 2006polls; brown; burns; corker; dewine; elections2006; ford; masondixon; montana; ohio; poll; polls; tennessee; tester
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This is decent news for DeWine; he's actually made up some ground. The Burns news is expected; I doubt he has much chance of winning now. However, the news from Tennessee is absolutely disasterous. This poll confirms the tightening here and TN is now a tossup.
1 posted on 09/30/2006 10:14:00 PM PDT by okstate
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To: Clintonfatigued; AntiGuv; Torie; Sam Spade; fieldmarshaldj

Ping - Mason-Dixon Senate polls in TN, OH, MT. Tester's winning, DeWine's down, and Corker and Ford are nearly tied (Ford leads by one)


2 posted on 09/30/2006 10:15:03 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

Yet more registered-voter polls.


3 posted on 09/30/2006 10:17:34 PM PDT by denydenydeny ("We have always been, we are, and I hope that we always shall be detested in France"--Wellington)
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Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

To: denydenydeny
Actually this year polls have found Republicans doing better among registered voters than among likely voters -- opposite from the usual situation.

Gallup observed this phenomenon in Montana and Ohio for the Senate races in particular.

5 posted on 09/30/2006 10:19:00 PM PDT by okstate
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Comment #6 Removed by Moderator

To: okstate

What to you think this phenomenon means?


7 posted on 09/30/2006 10:21:30 PM PDT by jmj3jude
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To: jmj3jude

Democrats are more motivated to vote. We have to convince typically Republican voters to "come home" to our candidates. If we do, our losses won't be too bad (probably just Burns, Santorum, and Chafee in the Senate). If we don't we're looking at losing 5 or 6 seats.


8 posted on 09/30/2006 10:22:23 PM PDT by okstate
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To: jmj3jude

not good


9 posted on 09/30/2006 10:24:46 PM PDT by Lib-Lickers 2
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Comment #10 Removed by Moderator

To: Ameritopia

Primary voting is not a function of the "motivation" of the parties.

It's about how competitive the races are, obviously.

In a competitive primary race more people will vote than in a non-competitive race. Has absolutely nothing to do with the state of the party.


11 posted on 09/30/2006 10:26:32 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

hide and watch...save the ultra liberal areas
we are gonna kick ass BIG TIME...hide and watch


12 posted on 09/30/2006 10:33:00 PM PDT by advertising guy
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To: advertising guy

I believe it too.


13 posted on 09/30/2006 10:38:41 PM PDT by what's up
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To: what's up

see my handle ? done some serious face to face research in bits of California ,Arizona where I live, and Nevada.

All want to be safe from moolim terrorists and NONE BELIEVE DEMS will keep em safe


14 posted on 09/30/2006 10:41:45 PM PDT by advertising guy
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To: advertising guy
The Dems are having a temporary spurt.

In about 2 weeks the Repubs surge and it doesn't stop until election day.

And we get an undeniable mandate from the public that the WOT is to continue with increased majorities.

15 posted on 09/30/2006 10:48:33 PM PDT by what's up
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To: writing
We've got to concentrate on the House too. Find someone good to replace Foley.

It's not looking good for our side in the House.

This thing with Foley and the latest revelation that the House leadership, including Denny Hastert, knew about this in '05 and let him keep his committee positions, is probably going to be the last straw. We may as well give Nancy Pelosi the Speaker's gavel.
16 posted on 09/30/2006 10:50:42 PM PDT by no dems (I'll take a moral Mormon over a demonic Democrat or repugnant RINO anyday.)
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Comment #17 Removed by Moderator

To: no dems

Nonsense.


18 posted on 09/30/2006 11:01:46 PM PDT by what's up
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To: okstate

This poll confirms that 50% of our fellow Americans are retarded.


19 posted on 09/30/2006 11:03:07 PM PDT by Rome2000 (Peace is not an option)
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To: writing

"However, we should pick up NJ and MO is looking nice."

Keep in mind that 49% of NJ voters "strongly disapprove" of Bush (per Rasmussen) in addition to 13% that "somewhat disapprove."

I was driving through Jersey City (a RAT stronghold) and they have plastered every light pole with "Stop Bush! Vote Nov 7th!" signs... no mention of their corrupt Dem candidate's name (Menendez) to be seen.

Add in a history of election fraud (with the election boards dominated by Democrats in major counties) and I'd say NJ is 50/50 at best. I agree that MO is key, as are OH, VA, and TN.


20 posted on 09/30/2006 11:03:16 PM PDT by nj26 (Border Security=Homeland Security... Put Our Military on the Border! (Proud2BNRA))
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To: what's up

it's already done...the polls are intentionally tweeked


21 posted on 09/30/2006 11:05:49 PM PDT by advertising guy
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To: okstate

Then what about the CT primary? That had pathetic turnout.


22 posted on 09/30/2006 11:08:26 PM PDT by AmishDude
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To: AmishDude
What the heck are you talking about? The CT primary had record turnout.
23 posted on 09/30/2006 11:14:00 PM PDT by AntiGuv ("..I do things for political expediency.." - Sen. John McCain on FOX News)
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To: AntiGuv

280,000 -- for both parties. Pathetic, "record" or no.


24 posted on 09/30/2006 11:17:49 PM PDT by AmishDude
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To: AmishDude

Your response -- just now. Delusional, here in reality..


25 posted on 09/30/2006 11:19:14 PM PDT by AntiGuv (sorry .. i couldn't resist!!)
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To: okstate

Why don't you adopt Dewine for your state of Oklahoma? He represents my state now, not yours, and I want him gone. Some say Sherrod Brown is a far-left liberal. I say Dewine is a far-left rino.


26 posted on 09/30/2006 11:20:02 PM PDT by Rudder
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To: okstate
However, the news from Tennessee is absolutely disasterous.

Wrong!

Black Democrats always poll much better than their actual numbers. People give the PC response to the pollster. This has been proven in election after election since at least the early 1980s.

27 posted on 09/30/2006 11:24:06 PM PDT by Hannibal Hamlin
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To: okstate
How did I know it was you....


28 posted on 09/30/2006 11:29:17 PM PDT by Antoninus (I don't vote for liberals, regardless of party.)
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To: okstate

Dewine will win as he is making up the ground and has the momentum going on.

Burns needs to run hard and hit on Testers support for repealing the patriot act.


As for Corker, I am not sure why he is trailing, he should winning the election in a cakewalk. I suspect he has a piss poor team with poor ads, he should hitting hard on Fords actual Liberal voting record in Congress which is not a very tough thing to do!


29 posted on 09/30/2006 11:35:00 PM PDT by GregH
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To: okstate

Corker will win. I dunno about dewine or burns.


30 posted on 09/30/2006 11:39:14 PM PDT by BoBToMatoE
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To: denydenydeny

With caller ID - cell phones and do not call lists how can you get an accurate poll?


31 posted on 09/30/2006 11:43:30 PM PDT by Brimack34
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To: okstate

Why didn't Denny Rehberg run for Burns' spot? I remember seeing Burns at the first Bush inaugural. He was a drunk mess and an embarrassment.


32 posted on 09/30/2006 11:44:05 PM PDT by montag813
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To: okstate
former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker

Unfortunate name, sounds like Porker.

33 posted on 09/30/2006 11:44:49 PM PDT by montag813
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To: writing
However, we should pick up NJ

Don't bet on it. Forrester ran 5% down in all such polls and on election day lost by well over 10%.

34 posted on 09/30/2006 11:46:18 PM PDT by montag813
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To: GregH

Let's remember that Corker pretty recently came out of a competitive primary. This tends to depress the nominee's numbers for a while. I've always felt we'd hold Tennessee, and I'm still cautiously optimistic.


35 posted on 09/30/2006 11:47:11 PM PDT by California Patriot ("That's not Charlie the Tuna out there. It's Jaws." -- Richard Nixon)
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To: okstate
We have to convince typically Republican voters to "come home" to our candidates. If we do, our losses won't be too bad (probably just Burns, Santorum, and Chafee in the Senate). If we don't we're looking at losing 5 or 6 seats.

Bush is the key. He must rally the troops. "Cut and run party" is a good start. But he needs to step it up. Allen needs to intensify the Webb Naval Academy chick ads. They will work. Burns is a lost cause, as is Santorum, sadly. Kean must chill out on the corruption attack ads for 3 weeks and then press Menendez with everything he's got. We will win in MO and TN.

36 posted on 09/30/2006 11:49:05 PM PDT by montag813
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To: okstate
Is Harold Ford an Arab in American clothes?
37 posted on 10/01/2006 12:12:23 AM PDT by Alex1977
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To: BoBToMatoE

Are you sure? What about Talent?


38 posted on 10/01/2006 12:14:11 AM PDT by Alex1977
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To: montag813

And Corker sounds like Al Gore.


39 posted on 10/01/2006 12:30:21 AM PDT by Ingtar (Prensa dos para el inglÚs)
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To: Hannibal Hamlin

You got to admit that Tenn is at least troublesome. I have always thought Ford would be a dangerous guy in the race and he is showing it now. If Tenn is doing this and this isnt the only poll I have seen on this race then it is making me fear how badly we are doing across the Country


40 posted on 10/01/2006 12:31:09 AM PDT by catholicfreeper (Geaux Tigers SEC FOOTBALL ROCKS)
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To: Hannibal Hamlin

Do you have any evidence for this at all, or is it just an assumption on your part?


41 posted on 10/01/2006 12:33:08 AM PDT by okstate
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To: montag813

We must also remind the people that the Supreme Court is still at stake here. I still think there is a chance that Stevens might retire since he was appointed by a Republican. HEck who knows maybe even Ginsburg might decide to retire. Anyway I hope that point being made in direct mail


42 posted on 10/01/2006 12:34:55 AM PDT by catholicfreeper (Geaux Tigers SEC FOOTBALL ROCKS)
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To: GregH
Corker does have a very poor ad team from what I've heard. The recent polls from Tennessee are bringing pretty bad news. I had always assumed Corker would win by 8-10 percent, but now I view him more like Talent in MO, where he'll be lucky to squeak out a razor-thin victory.

09-30 Mason Dixon ...... Ford +1
09-11 Survey USA ....... Ford +3
09-08 Rasmussen .......... Corker +1

Granted some of these polls are older, but that's the trifecta of the three best pollsters in 2004 and they all agree that Tennessee is a tossup right now - nothing more and nothing less.

43 posted on 10/01/2006 12:36:09 AM PDT by okstate
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To: catholicfreeper
Ford, Jr. is an extremely dangerous candidate. I think Corker underestimated him and is paying the price, potentially. The scary thing is that its been almost 2 months since the primaries, and Corker's numbers have gotten WORSE. After a rough primary the candidate should improve over time. That's not happening in Tennessee and that's very troublesome.
44 posted on 10/01/2006 12:38:09 AM PDT by okstate
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To: Alex1977
"Is Harold Ford an Arab in American clothes?"

No, Ford is a member of an infamous black criminal family
in Memphis. It goes back over 50 years.
My father was a Main St. merchant, and as a child I remember him talking about the Fords as check kiters and basic slime.

I cant imagine Ford wining the state.
He will carry Memphis by a landslide, as it is 60 percent chocolateville, but outside of that, I cant imagine anyone voting for him.
45 posted on 10/01/2006 12:51:14 AM PDT by AlexW (Reporting from Bratislava, Slovakia)
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To: okstate

I heard that he has built a new team, so i think Corker must be learning.

Also Fords support is stuck in the low 40's, this means he has peaked with all the ads and deception and still in the 40s'.

Outside memphis, it is very hard to see people voting for Ford, Tennesseans are quite informed on politics and know about the corruot Ford family and wont be fooled by his ads, remember Gore got tossed out in 2000.

The election is there to be won by Corker quite comfortably, however he needs to get on the game and be focussed.


46 posted on 10/01/2006 12:55:21 AM PDT by GregH
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To: okstate

That's okay .. let DeWine sweat a little .. maybe he'll listen to more conservatives now, instead of the liberals in congress.


47 posted on 10/01/2006 1:10:51 AM PDT by CyberAnt (Drive-By Media: Fake news, fake documents, fake polls)
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To: Brimack34
With caller ID - cell phones and do not call lists how can you get an accurate poll?

By Jupiter, that's an excellent observation!

48 posted on 10/01/2006 2:58:26 AM PDT by yankeedame ("Oh, I can take it but I'd much rather dish it out.")
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To: okstate
A poll commissioned by the Commercial Appeal is going to be extremely biased toward Ford! Other polls have Corker up by five or six points.
49 posted on 10/01/2006 3:58:52 AM PDT by Coldwater Creek
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To: GregH

A new ad is coming out, talking about the corruptness link to the Ford family.


50 posted on 10/01/2006 4:01:34 AM PDT by Coldwater Creek
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