Skip to comments.Polls find Democrats ahead in 3 vital states (Mason-Dixon, DeWine -2, Burns -7, Corker -1)
Posted on 09/30/2006 10:13:58 PM PDT by okstate
WASHINGTON Democrats are slightly ahead of Republican incumbents in three election battleground states that will help determine control of the Senate, a series of polls released Sunday showed.
In Montana, Democrat Jon Tester had the support of 47 percent of registered voters, while incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns had the support of 40 percent.
In Ohio, Democrat Rep. Sherrod Brown had 45 percent of registered voters, while incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine had 43 percent.
In Tennessee, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. had 43 percent, and former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, the Republican Senate nominee, had 42 percent.
Democrats probably must win all three races if theyre to take back control of the Senate on Nov. 7. They need to gain six seats overall, and these three are among the six seats held by Republicans that are considered most vulnerable.
Another Republican incumbent, Sen. George Allen of Virginia, was locked in a 43 percent to 43 percent dead heat with Democratic challenger James Webb, according to a poll released Friday by McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC.
The surveys underscored how much these states are up for grabs and how much rides on the final five weeks of campaigning. The work of both major parties to get their supporters to turn out on Election Day could prove decisive. One in 10 voters remain undecided in Montana and Ohio, 12 percent in Virginia and 14 percent in Tennessee.
The polls were all conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. for newspapers in each of the states Lee Newspapers in Montana, the Cleveland Plain Dealer in Ohio and the Memphis Commercial Appeal and Chattanooga Times Free Press in Tennessee. Each state poll was of 625 registered voters and had an error margin of plus or minus four percentage points. The polls were taken between Monday and Thursday.
Mason-Dixon conducted a broader series of polls for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC in seven other closely fought Senate battleground states. Virginia results were released Friday, and the other six will be released Monday.
Ping - Mason-Dixon Senate polls in TN, OH, MT. Tester's winning, DeWine's down, and Corker and Ford are nearly tied (Ford leads by one)
Yet more registered-voter polls.
Gallup observed this phenomenon in Montana and Ohio for the Senate races in particular.
What to you think this phenomenon means?
Democrats are more motivated to vote. We have to convince typically Republican voters to "come home" to our candidates. If we do, our losses won't be too bad (probably just Burns, Santorum, and Chafee in the Senate). If we don't we're looking at losing 5 or 6 seats.
Primary voting is not a function of the "motivation" of the parties.
It's about how competitive the races are, obviously.
In a competitive primary race more people will vote than in a non-competitive race. Has absolutely nothing to do with the state of the party.
hide and watch...save the ultra liberal areas
we are gonna kick ass BIG TIME...hide and watch
I believe it too.
see my handle ? done some serious face to face research in bits of California ,Arizona where I live, and Nevada.
All want to be safe from moolim terrorists and NONE BELIEVE DEMS will keep em safe
In about 2 weeks the Repubs surge and it doesn't stop until election day.
And we get an undeniable mandate from the public that the WOT is to continue with increased majorities.
This poll confirms that 50% of our fellow Americans are retarded.
"However, we should pick up NJ and MO is looking nice."
Keep in mind that 49% of NJ voters "strongly disapprove" of Bush (per Rasmussen) in addition to 13% that "somewhat disapprove."
I was driving through Jersey City (a RAT stronghold) and they have plastered every light pole with "Stop Bush! Vote Nov 7th!" signs... no mention of their corrupt Dem candidate's name (Menendez) to be seen.
Add in a history of election fraud (with the election boards dominated by Democrats in major counties) and I'd say NJ is 50/50 at best. I agree that MO is key, as are OH, VA, and TN.
it's already done...the polls are intentionally tweeked
Then what about the CT primary? That had pathetic turnout.
280,000 -- for both parties. Pathetic, "record" or no.
Your response -- just now. Delusional, here in reality..
Why don't you adopt Dewine for your state of Oklahoma? He represents my state now, not yours, and I want him gone. Some say Sherrod Brown is a far-left liberal. I say Dewine is a far-left rino.
Black Democrats always poll much better than their actual numbers. People give the PC response to the pollster. This has been proven in election after election since at least the early 1980s.
Dewine will win as he is making up the ground and has the momentum going on.
Burns needs to run hard and hit on Testers support for repealing the patriot act.
As for Corker, I am not sure why he is trailing, he should winning the election in a cakewalk. I suspect he has a piss poor team with poor ads, he should hitting hard on Fords actual Liberal voting record in Congress which is not a very tough thing to do!
Corker will win. I dunno about dewine or burns.
With caller ID - cell phones and do not call lists how can you get an accurate poll?
Why didn't Denny Rehberg run for Burns' spot? I remember seeing Burns at the first Bush inaugural. He was a drunk mess and an embarrassment.
Unfortunate name, sounds like Porker.
Don't bet on it. Forrester ran 5% down in all such polls and on election day lost by well over 10%.
Let's remember that Corker pretty recently came out of a competitive primary. This tends to depress the nominee's numbers for a while. I've always felt we'd hold Tennessee, and I'm still cautiously optimistic.
Bush is the key. He must rally the troops. "Cut and run party" is a good start. But he needs to step it up. Allen needs to intensify the Webb Naval Academy chick ads. They will work. Burns is a lost cause, as is Santorum, sadly. Kean must chill out on the corruption attack ads for 3 weeks and then press Menendez with everything he's got. We will win in MO and TN.
Are you sure? What about Talent?
And Corker sounds like Al Gore.
You got to admit that Tenn is at least troublesome. I have always thought Ford would be a dangerous guy in the race and he is showing it now. If Tenn is doing this and this isnt the only poll I have seen on this race then it is making me fear how badly we are doing across the Country
Do you have any evidence for this at all, or is it just an assumption on your part?
We must also remind the people that the Supreme Court is still at stake here. I still think there is a chance that Stevens might retire since he was appointed by a Republican. HEck who knows maybe even Ginsburg might decide to retire. Anyway I hope that point being made in direct mail
09-30 Mason Dixon ...... Ford +1
09-11 Survey USA ....... Ford +3
09-08 Rasmussen .......... Corker +1
Granted some of these polls are older, but that's the trifecta of the three best pollsters in 2004 and they all agree that Tennessee is a tossup right now - nothing more and nothing less.
I heard that he has built a new team, so i think Corker must be learning.
Also Fords support is stuck in the low 40's, this means he has peaked with all the ads and deception and still in the 40s'.
Outside memphis, it is very hard to see people voting for Ford, Tennesseans are quite informed on politics and know about the corruot Ford family and wont be fooled by his ads, remember Gore got tossed out in 2000.
The election is there to be won by Corker quite comfortably, however he needs to get on the game and be focussed.
That's okay .. let DeWine sweat a little .. maybe he'll listen to more conservatives now, instead of the liberals in congress.
By Jupiter, that's an excellent observation!
A new ad is coming out, talking about the corruptness link to the Ford family.