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16% undecided in 4th District race, poll finds (Shays up 4 in CT-04)
Stamford Advocate ^ | 3 October 2006 | Mark Ginocchio

Posted on 10/03/2006 9:56:41 AM PDT by okstate

An Advocate/Greenwich Time poll shows incumbent U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Bridgeport, has a 4 percent lead over Democratic challenger Diane Farrell among likely voters in the hotly contested 4th Congressional District race.

The poll, conducted by the University of Connecticut's Center for Survey Research and Analysis, shows 44 percent of likely voters support Shays while 40 percent support Farrell.

Sixteen percent of likely voters polled in the 17 municipalities that comprise lower Fairfield County's 4th district said they remain undecided.

(Excerpt) Read more at stamfordadvocate.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Connecticut
KEYWORDS: 2006; 2006polls; connecticut; electionshouse; farrell; poll; polls; rino; shays
This fits closely with the Majority Watch poll in CT-04, which had Shays up 7.
1 posted on 10/03/2006 9:56:42 AM PDT by okstate
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To: All

Excellent. Every single vulnerable seat held steepens the climb the Democrats face.

There is entirely too much talk of parallels of 2006 to 1994. The FUNDAMENTAL reality is that in 1994 there were over 100 seats thought to be vulnerable. There are far fewer than that now.

The Democrats have to run the table to make this happen. Odds are against that happening.


2 posted on 10/03/2006 10:00:25 AM PDT by Owen
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To: Owen
"The FUNDAMENTAL reality is that in 1994 there were over 100 seats thought to be vulnerable."

How vulnerable? Who said they were vulnerable? At what point in 1994 was that said?

3 posted on 10/03/2006 10:02:15 AM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

Shays will probably win. Farrell, as before, is running a terrible campaign. Half the people in the district don't know who she is.


4 posted on 10/03/2006 10:02:39 AM PDT by Dr. Thorne
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To: Owen
The Democrats have to run the table to make this happen. Odds are against that happening.

It was nothing more that a liberal fantasy slowing being flushed down the toilet. 

5 posted on 10/03/2006 10:02:49 AM PDT by 1035rep
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To: okstate

Not too bad, actually. Another poll out today also has Shays up by 5 (46%-41%), done by the University of Connecticut.

Also, released the other day by Public Opinion Strategies finds that Rep Rob Simmons of CT-2 leading 50%-36% over Courtney. If the DEMS don't win the CT races, their chances for a majority are greatly reduced.


6 posted on 10/03/2006 10:03:15 AM PDT by Princip. Conservative
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To: Princip. Conservative
"Another poll out today also has Shays up by 5 (46%-41%), done by the University of Connecticut. "

That's THIS poll. "The poll, conducted by the University of Connecticut's Center for Survey Research and Analysis, shows 44 percent of likely voters support Shays while 40 percent support Farrell."

"Also, released the other day by Public Opinion Strategies finds that Rep Rob Simmons of CT-2 leading 50%-36% over Courtney."

Keep in mind... POS is a partisan pollster.

7 posted on 10/03/2006 10:05:15 AM PDT by okstate
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To: Owen

The ratio is actually about 90 Dem seats in 1994 and about 50 GOP seats in 2006. The biggest difference though is that the vulnerable Dem seats in 1994 tended to lean considerably more GOP than the vulnerable GOP seats in 2006 lean Dem. In other words, the Dems have to push against the inherent partisan nature of the districts much more so.

In any case, just going by the ratio, a reverse 1994 would net the Dems about 27 seats or so, and that's more than enough to take the House.


8 posted on 10/03/2006 10:07:29 AM PDT by AntiGuv (o) (o)
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To: Owen
Shays is so far to the left, he makes Trotsky cringe:

He makes Michael Bloomberg look like a supporter of the Second Amendment.
He opposes the Iraq war, insisting on cutting-and-running.
He has long supported government funded abortion-on-demand.
He actually authored the BPCFRA travesty (McCain just got the credit).
He is an anti-property rights environmental wacko extremist.
Shays supports gay "marriage".
He was one of Clinton's closest Congressional allies in the impeachment vote.

Do ultraliberals like Chafee and Shays really strengthen the GOP Caucus or do they weaken it from within?

9 posted on 10/03/2006 10:09:17 AM PDT by Alter Kaker ("Whatever tears one sheds, in the end one always blows one's nose." - Heine)
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To: Alter Kaker

>>
Do ultraliberals like Chafee and Shays really strengthen the GOP Caucus or do they weaken it from within?
>>

They strengthen the US Congress' conservative composite, and that is all that matters. If you wish to move the country to the right, your best place to attack is those far left of center. If you attack those in the middle, you leave the impression that those farther to the left have the right attitude.

Support Chaffee and Shays because they vote for a GOP Majority leader and Speaker -- which are the most important votes that any member of Congress casts in a given session. That particular vote determines the agenda of overall votes that take place.

Oppose and attack Pelosi and Hillary and Kennedy since they are far left and to leave them alone, acquiesces. Devote ALL of your time to those who most deserve the attack.


10 posted on 10/03/2006 10:20:53 AM PDT by Owen
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To: Owen

Bump!


11 posted on 10/03/2006 10:24:45 AM PDT by 1035rep
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To: Alter Kaker
Well, the whole reason that Shays is in so much trouble is because he supports the Iraq war, so your second item is definitely off-base..
12 posted on 10/03/2006 10:25:55 AM PDT by AntiGuv (o) (o)
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To: Alter Kaker

do you want to holdthe House or not?

There will never and I mean never be any GOP member from CT who is anything but a RINO.

So if you want to lose Shays, you have to come up with a DEM seat that can go to a real conservative..I can think of fewer than 5.


13 posted on 10/03/2006 10:27:51 AM PDT by DontBelieveAugPolls
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To: Princip. Conservative

Wow P.O.S is respected pollster Bill McCinturff who has been down on the GOP all year. This means Simmons is in really good shape. We must get it together in Indiana though.


14 posted on 10/03/2006 10:54:59 AM PDT by Welike ike
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To: Welike ike

P.O.S is not a partisan pollster because it co owned by Republican McInturff and Clinton Strategist Hart.

Bill McInturff was the pollster who leaked to Novak over the Summer about GOP doom. He is even considered by liberal CNN's Schnieder to be the best in the business.


15 posted on 10/03/2006 10:57:17 AM PDT by Welike ike
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To: AntiGuv

Anit - GUV what you are selectively forgetting is that there were many more open seats on the DEM side in 1994.

How many competitve open seats are this year for the GOP?


16 posted on 10/03/2006 10:59:06 AM PDT by Welike ike
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To: AntiGuv

So if the Iraq war is the death knell to Conn candidates then why is Lieberman trouncing Lamont? Lamont is from the same area in Conn as Shays correct?


17 posted on 10/03/2006 11:01:20 AM PDT by Welike ike
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To: Welike ike

I hope that Simmons poll is correct. He and his opponent have dueling ads every night during Jeopardy. ;) Has anyone seen the Joe Courtney ads? He looks too much like the comedian Larry David to be taken seriously.

If Shays, Simmons, and Nancy Johnson all survive that will be a step in the direction of holding the House. Gov Rell might win by about 60-40 so that will help. The 3 GOP US reps managed to win last time, despite Kerry winning the state by about 10 points.


18 posted on 10/03/2006 11:23:56 AM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: okstate

well there were many more Dem retirements in 94 than R retirements in 06
we only knocked off a few incumbents in 94 the rest were all pickups of open seats
it was something like 100 seats in play back then to the 40 or so in play now


19 posted on 10/03/2006 11:43:54 AM PDT by DM1
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To: TNCMAXQ
Right TNC, I will take the word of a Conn. Resident anytime over the so called authorities on this site who seem to know the ins and outs of every congressional district, even if they have not ever been there.

Good luck to you mate, and vote GOP, Everyone I know is after the obvious DEM smear by Pelosi with the Foley emails.
20 posted on 10/03/2006 11:51:56 AM PDT by Welike ike
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To: DM1
Exactly DMI. also if you look at the Senate races of 1994, only 2 Dem Incumbents lost:

1. Sasser-Tenn
2. Wofford- Penn

The rest were open seats from retirements:

1. Mitchell- Maine (Snowe)
2. Boren- OK (Inahofe)
3. Matthews-Tenn (old AL Gore seat went to Thompson)
4. Deconcini- AZ- (Kyl)
5. Metzenbaum-OH (Dewine)
6. Reigle- Mich- (Abraham) 8 GOP pickups before Shelby(Bama) and Campbell(CO) switched.

In 2006 Frist is the only open Senate seat for the GOP
21 posted on 10/03/2006 11:58:33 AM PDT by Welike ike
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To: Welike ike

Ashcroft also won in 1994 when Danforth retired.


22 posted on 10/03/2006 12:20:05 PM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: AntiGuv
Well, the whole reason that Shays is in so much trouble is because he supports the Iraq war, so your second item is definitely off-base..

That was the reason he was in trouble. However, two weeks ago Shays reversed his position on Iraq 180 degrees, and is now a full-fledged Cindy Sheehanite, calling for an immediate timetable for withdrawal. I'm not quite sure why Shays identifies as a Republican...

23 posted on 10/03/2006 12:22:21 PM PDT by Alter Kaker ("Whatever tears one sheds, in the end one always blows one's nose." - Heine)
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To: Owen
If you attack those in the middle, you leave the impression that those farther to the left have the right attitude.

That is true, but Shays and Chafee are not in the middle. They have always been liberal.

24 posted on 10/03/2006 12:22:42 PM PDT by darkangel82 (Higher visibility leads to greater zottability.)
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To: TNCMAXQ

Right but not a pickup mate. Danforth was a pubbie.

It would be interesting to see how many DEM open seats in 1994 from the House.


25 posted on 10/03/2006 12:35:44 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: RaceBannon; scoopscandal; 2Trievers; LoneGOPinCT; Rodney King; sorrisi; MrSparkys; monafelice; ...

Connecticut ping!

Please Freepmail me if you want on or off my infrequent Connecticut ping list.

26 posted on 10/03/2006 10:27:59 PM PDT by nutmeg (National security trumps everything else.)
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To: Welike ike

Lieberman and Shays voters are often one in the same so your comparison doesnt fit. I will be voting for both for example. There was also an article in the Stamford Advocate recently pointing out they share the same fundraising base in CT as well. Both have been on record in support of the war. Shays has to moderate it on that subject as its unpopular here.


27 posted on 10/04/2006 3:02:39 PM PDT by LongsforReagan ("I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism."- Ronald Reagan)
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To: LongsforReagan

thanks mate, good info


28 posted on 10/04/2006 7:41:06 PM PDT by Welike ike
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