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Survey USA poll on Congressman Tom Reynolds' favorability (-44 percent margin)
Survey USA ^ | 4 October 2006 | Survey USA

Posted on 10/04/2006 7:40:44 PM PDT by okstate

Based on what you know now, do you approve, or do you disapprove, of the job New York congressman Tom Reynolds has done in response to contact between congressmen and teenage pages?

Approve 20%
Disapprove 66%
Not Sure 14

500 Adults, +/- 4.2% MOE

Partisan breakdown:
41% Republican
29% Democrat
23% Independent


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2006; 2006polls; logcabin; newyork; nrcc; poll; polls; reynolds; surveyusa
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Now before everyone FREAKS OUT on this poll, read what I have to say. This is the first wave of Survey USA's polling here. They likely released this number so that their client news station in New York has a headline for now. It's a lot shorter to poll 500 adults -- they probably don't have answers from 600 likely voters yet for a head-to-head matchup question. And it would be meaningless to report on the horserace among "adults."

I would guess that on Thursday or Friday we'll see the final numbers on this full poll including how Reynolds fares in the actual ballot test.

Having said that, I don't think we can draw a lot of conclusions from this one number. Reynolds is clearly in trouble, but we already knew that (The last Survey USA poll had him up only 2 points anyway).

1 posted on 10/04/2006 7:40:45 PM PDT by okstate
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To: AntiGuv; Clintonfatigued; Torie

Reynolds -44 percent margin on favorability in relation to the page scandal, says a new Survey USA poll (without a horserace ballot test question)


2 posted on 10/04/2006 7:41:25 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

I guess we will see how accurate the polls are in a few weeks. I know of no one that votes in his district that is planning on changing their vote because of the Foley fiasco.


3 posted on 10/04/2006 7:46:39 PM PDT by Dutch Boy
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To: crasher

The dike seems to be springing a lot of leaks these days. Maybe Hastert needs to go on the list. :(


4 posted on 10/04/2006 7:46:47 PM PDT by Torie
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To: okstate

OK this is crap. Please Do a better job of explaining how spewed these polls are. You make it seem like it is a ballot against his DEM opponent. You know better friend.


5 posted on 10/04/2006 7:55:32 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: Torie

Torie Matt Drudge plugged that leak tonight. The DEMS are finished, the ghost of Dan rather has risen for ABC and the sleazy Brain Ross.

Buck up


6 posted on 10/04/2006 7:57:03 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: Welike ike
Maybe you just can't read...

"Having said that, I don't think we can draw a lot of conclusions from this one number. "

7 posted on 10/04/2006 7:57:45 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

OK what is his challengers Favoribility. You selectively forgot that friend.

Also in the open NY 24th, Micheal Acurri, the DEM Challenger to the open seat got busted calling phone sex hotlines while on County Time. Maybe post something about that OK.


8 posted on 10/04/2006 8:01:06 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: okstate

Reynolds is also the Chair of the NRCC, which incidentally favored Huffman(Loser) Vs Graf(Winner) in the primary.

His gay staffer may have been making strategy decisions for the NRCC, which would explain lack of support for heterosexual Christian Conservatives by the NRCC and the lack of support for Graf (AZ CD8)and Kolbe (Ex AZCD8) who is allowing his name and quotes to be used by the Democrats. If the Gaystapo is involved in his staff he is done for.

Reynolds is going to have problems in the election. Two large (GM/Ford) plants are closing and a rural food industry is bankrupt (Agrilink/ProFac) in the outlying rural counties.

This isn't freaking out. There are other issues
There are other local economic issues that will not be overcome.

He had better come up with an explanation for the Log Cabin wing of the Republican party using his name and influence.
If the locals do not get a legitimate explanation he is toast.


9 posted on 10/04/2006 8:01:44 PM PDT by axes_of_weezles
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To: okstate

If you feel that is not a reliable indicator OK, why post it? I am being friendly, so don't alert the moderator please.


10 posted on 10/04/2006 8:02:24 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: Welike ike
There's no question about his challenger's favorability, because they didn't poll that.

"Micheal Acurri, the DEM Challenger to the open seat got busted calling phone sex hotlines while on County Time. Maybe post something about that OK." How about this? From that article: "This afternoon, after this story was posted, I was informed that the number in question, 800-457-8462, was accidentally dialed instead of 518-457-8462. The latter number is for the New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services."

It's a non-story.

11 posted on 10/04/2006 8:03:20 PM PDT by okstate
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To: Welike ike

It is simply spendid that we keep careful birth records isn't it? I wonder if Foley knew the age of his chat companion. In any event, Foley is a lucky man, and maybe the GOP will get lucky. A lot of the current damage is being done by the GOP leadership disagreeing about who said what to whom, and then revising and extending. That is not a confidence builder.


12 posted on 10/04/2006 8:04:05 PM PDT by Torie
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To: axes_of_weezles

Reynolds is fine. And the Drudge report nailed Brain ross tonight. this scandal is over, Haesert Stays.

Bob Novak at Human Events has the GOP holding the House due to DEM overreach


13 posted on 10/04/2006 8:04:14 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: Welike ike

It's not a reliable indicator of how he'll peform in the election... but it's reliable in the sense that the numbers it reports are true, I would think. Reynolds is clearly unpopular and is suffering among his constituents due to the Foley matter.


14 posted on 10/04/2006 8:04:36 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

Darn! I hate when that happens. :)


15 posted on 10/04/2006 8:04:57 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Welike ike

Novak's House race calls are ideosyncratic. Maybe he has the macro right. I hope so. The Dems have overreached. They would have been better off letting the Pubbies stew in their own juice.


16 posted on 10/04/2006 8:06:15 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie

Torie it is over. The scandal has now reached to the DEMS.

I know that you regard the old media with high esteem, but Drudge rules the net and you know it.


And Micheal Acuri, the DEM challenger to the NY 24 open seat, was busted today calling Phone sex lines as a County Prosecutor. He is toast.


17 posted on 10/04/2006 8:07:05 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: Welike ike

It's not just this scandal. His opposition is well funded and there are economic issues. This issue is not a winning topic for Reynolds.


18 posted on 10/04/2006 8:08:02 PM PDT by axes_of_weezles
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To: Torie

Torie, I value you as a terrific source on this blog. I do not mean to be smirky. But the winds have changed my friend. This is Rather all over again. Rove nailed Brian Ross today.


19 posted on 10/04/2006 8:08:42 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: Torie

Congressional GOP leadership is oxymoronic. But the dems have gone to far out on the limb. As the facts come in the branch bends ever more.


20 posted on 10/04/2006 8:09:50 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: axes_of_weezles

My friend Reynolds has more money than GOD, his rich challenger will now be subjected the GOP attack machine.

Davis is not clean.


21 posted on 10/04/2006 8:10:11 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: jwalsh07

Right Walsh. I am no fan of Haesert. But smears always backfire, especially for the dEMS


22 posted on 10/04/2006 8:10:58 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: okstate

OK i agree with that. but the foley scandal will be negated to a point once the DEM leaker is exposed.


23 posted on 10/04/2006 8:12:45 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: okstate

The democrap created scandal broke too early. Reynolds will get reelected despite his stupid antics.

Why?

The alternative is a decrepit protectionist. He is the unions's (UAW types) last gasp in NYS


24 posted on 10/04/2006 8:13:50 PM PDT by eleni121 ("Show me just what Mohammed brought:: evil and inhumanity")
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To: jwalsh07

Keep hope alive. The whole thing was BS from the getgo. The intial email was inappropriate, but hey, it was not like Foley should have been put in the stocks, or even that the some sort of investigation should have been conducted. There is no evidence the subsequent IM's were known by anyone, but of course that little detail is lost to the public square. Thus the age thing is only "fair" as a lucky joker card. The problem is the conduct of the GOP leadership. It was quite pathetic. Why didn't they hold some coherent press conference? I know the answer. Some Pubbies crave to be the new minority leader!


25 posted on 10/04/2006 8:17:17 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Welike ike

Maybe, if the voters forget the GOP leaderhip keystone cops act.


26 posted on 10/04/2006 8:18:09 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie
I think you're absolutely correct. The performance by the House and Senate leadership was quite miserable only rivaled by the Washington Times and right wing self appointed paragons of virtue. Quite the disgusting display. The new conservative principle is guilty until proven innocent and Hastert is individually responsible for the foibles of every member of Congress.

By the way, Foley didn't "exit" he went to rehab and blamed his proclivities on some Priest somewhere. :-}

Ayiieeeeee!

27 posted on 10/04/2006 8:20:57 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: jwalsh07

I am just so lucky to have been raised a near atheist. :) It has forged me as who I am. If and when I go down, I just won't have anyone to blame but myself. I won't invoke/blame religion, booze, priests, parents, mental illness (ya, Foley played that card) or anything else. It is infra dig.


28 posted on 10/04/2006 8:25:44 PM PDT by Torie
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To: jwalsh07

For the past few days, I never seen a bunch of headless chickens running around. I pray that we can keep the gavel from Pelsoi's hands.

That said, regardless of the 2006 elction results, we need to take out the trash in the House GOP. Haster resigning is a moot point. He had plans to retire in 2008. I hope Bohner retires too. We need new leadership. Mike Pence, Eric Cantor, JD Hayworth, and John Shadegg deserve promotions in the House.


29 posted on 10/04/2006 8:27:32 PM PDT by Kuksool (Design your Own Polls. Go Vote and Take a Few Others With You)
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To: okstate

Thanks for the ping! Reynolds is clearly in trouble, but we already knew that. We won't really know how much trouble he's in until we have a post-Foley poll, so there's not much else to say about it for now.


30 posted on 10/04/2006 8:29:45 PM PDT by AntiGuv (o) (o)
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To: AntiGuv; jwalsh07; Kuksool; Welike ike
A network source explains, messages with the young man and disgraced former Congressman Foley took place before and after the 18th birthday. Developing...

Just damnit. What is "given" can be taketh away, so said the "Lord." So now we need to know the before and after. Developing ...

31 posted on 10/04/2006 8:38:42 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie

I just posted this in the pulled thread, so here's take two: The photo request was definitely sent to a 16 year old, who is 17 now. From what I've gathered, the masturbation techniques were discussed with a late 16 or early 17 year old. And, evidently, the cybersex was with an 18 year old per the above.


32 posted on 10/04/2006 8:44:11 PM PDT by AntiGuv (o) (o)
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To: AntiGuv

I haven't read the cybersex chat. Do you have a link? The masturbation IM was what caused the firestorm no? Back to square one.


33 posted on 10/04/2006 8:45:46 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie

I just saw that on Drudge's website, too. Still hasn't changed his headlines. I guess "FAMOUS IM EXCHANGES TOOK PLACE BEFORE AND AFTER PAGE'S 18TH BIRTHDAY" isn't entertaining enough.


34 posted on 10/04/2006 8:45:51 PM PDT by okstate
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To: Torie
True story here.

My grades in high school were "sufficient" to get a high school diploma. My athletic ability and test scores were sufficient to get a scholarship to Brown if I did a year at an exclusive prep school in Ct and got high grades.

As part of my "scholarship" I had to do office work for the Dean of Students and of course play football and baseball. No work during football season so I started my office work for the Dean after the season. Well, as it turns out the Dean was a homosexual. He made an advance, I knocked him clear across the room with one shot. I had just turned 17 and any thoughts of matriculating at Brown were over. :-} My Dad came and got me the next day.

Some 12 years, one wife and two kids later I did get that Engineering degree though.

35 posted on 10/04/2006 8:47:49 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: Torie
Here you go: New Foley Instant Messages; Had Internet Sex While Awaiting House Vote.

They appear to have cut off the most salacious parts though, as ABC News puts it: "The exchange continues in which Foley and the teen both appear to describe having sexual orgasms."

36 posted on 10/04/2006 8:49:24 PM PDT by AntiGuv (o) (o)
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To: Torie
Foley got around, eh? But of course he didn't resign for having cybersex with an 18 year old. That part of the story is axiomatic. Foley deserves what he gets. The part of the story that has danger for the republicans and the dems is the ole who knew what and when.

BTW, did you see the ad the dem is running against JD Hayworth? It has that sepia effect to make JD look forboding and in the end it puts a sniper scopes cross hairs on JD's head. That one is gonna bite the dems right in the ass.

37 posted on 10/04/2006 8:52:25 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: jwalsh07

Well, perhaps diplomacy in your own self interest just wasn't job one back then. In fact, it still might not be. :) Back then, the few times a male was interested in me (which was rare, since I didn't play lacrosse or some other muscling activity), I just hit the ignore button. That seemed to do the "trick" as it were. I would not have foregone the oppotunity to go to Brown myself, assuming that the ignore button was sufficient. But then then, I was an intellectual snob. It took a couple of decades to make me sufficiently house broken to become tolerable in someone's living room. Well that is an overstatement, but whatever.


38 posted on 10/04/2006 8:55:10 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie
As it turns out PhiKapMom knows one of the pages invovled.

Small world, eh?

39 posted on 10/04/2006 8:56:09 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: Torie
In fact, it still might not be. :)

LOL, my friends, family and co-workers would heartily agree. I'm missing that gene.

40 posted on 10/04/2006 8:58:12 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: jwalsh07
Well, the cognoscenti did not put Hayworth in the ash heap of history, so no net gain. What do you have for us on Gerlach's opponent? Simmons was ahead on some poll I saw today or yesterday by the way. So was Davis in Kentucky.
41 posted on 10/04/2006 8:58:57 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie
No net gain in Arizona but a net gain for Pubbies if they tie that kind of campaigning around the dems necks and conflate it with the Foley thing.

Don't know about Gerlach but I do know that Simmons internals have him at 50 and up 11. Courtneys internals have it tied at 44 or some such. Basically the same as last time if I remember correctly.

42 posted on 10/04/2006 9:03:51 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: AntiGuv

Thanks. The invite for drinks one (apparently while on the "floor.") I conflated that with the masturbation one, as involving the same ex page. Thanks for clearing that one up for me!


43 posted on 10/04/2006 9:13:30 PM PDT by Torie
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To: jwalsh07

Do you have a link to the Hayworth hit piece?


44 posted on 10/04/2006 9:21:50 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie
Sniper crosshairs are coordinated with the words " a target of investigation".
45 posted on 10/04/2006 9:32:02 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: jwalsh07

The problem was not so much the crosshairs, but the oninous Mafia like black and white with sinister music, and then the cord change, with more cheerful music and color for the challenger. In this post McLuhan age, that is simply too obvious, and makes one laugh. It is another one of those bridges too far. Smart political ad types, know the lighter and more humorous hit piece, is what works with Booomers on down to Gen Y. There are not too many voters left, that are not totally cynical, and react to more subtle cues.


46 posted on 10/04/2006 9:37:34 PM PDT by Torie
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To: eleni121
The democrap created scandal broke too early.

Most people here think there is time to sort this out before the election. There isn't.

In a lot of the close house races, 60% of the vote will be by absentee. Absentee voting is starting this week. The election will be over (in terms of votes cast) in most close house districts before we can clear this issue.

It was timed perfectly and overreach doesn't matter. The votes are cast. Drive by media strikes again. They tried this in 2000 (drunk driving), 2004 (TANG and Al Kaa Kaa) and failed. They have probably already succeeded this time.

I don't like to be so negative but this was the best executed political dirty trick since the atom bomb ad by LBJ. It doesn't matter if the kid turns out to be 18. The retraction will be on page 43 of the NYT's and the networks will just drop the story. There's just not enough time for the blogs to turn it around. The election is over by the end of next week.

47 posted on 10/04/2006 10:06:49 PM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: Torie
Just in case you haven't had enough of Foley's IM chats, here's the latest, courtesy of the Washington Post: Lawmaker's Intentions Appear Clear In Exchanges

An especially suave excerpt: "We will make you successful," Foley promised, "as long as you don't mind me grabbing your [deleted] once in a while."

48 posted on 10/05/2006 1:38:03 AM PDT by AntiGuv (o) (o)
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To: okstate

Survey USA polls are considered inaccurate,skewed to the Liberals and democrats and dont have a great track record, I dont think their polls mean much this election.


49 posted on 10/05/2006 3:54:17 AM PDT by GregH
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To: AntiGuv

anti-guv, you are missing the big picture once again. You are a numbers cruncher, not a political historian.

Foley is not the issue at this point.

It is now about taking down Haesert.

The more the dEMS push this scandal, the more likely more revelations about Bill Clinton will surface, and not from the 1990's.


50 posted on 10/05/2006 5:32:16 AM PDT by Welike ike
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