Skip to comments.Democrats poised for US Senate gains - Reuters poll
Posted on 10/05/2006 12:11:53 PM PDT by Alex1977
WASHINGTON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Democrats are poised for U.S. Senate gains in the Nov. 7 election, but face an uphill battle to pick up the six seats they need for control, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released on Thursday.
Democrats lead in five of 10 crucial Senate battlegrounds, including three Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania, Montana and Rhode Island and in Democratic-held Maryland and New Jersey.
But Republican incumbents lead in Virginia and Missouri, and Senate contests in Republican-held Ohio and Tennessee are deadlocked, the polls showed.
Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, has a big lead over Democrat Ned Lamont.
To gain a Senate majority, Democrats must hold their own vulnerable seats and sweep six of the seven at-risk Republican seats, including knocking off five Republican incumbents -- a tough but not impossible task.
"It looks like Democrats will make gains, but it will be very difficult for them to take control," pollster John Zogby said. "It is going to take an awful lot of work for them to pick up six seats."
The polls show Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee who lost an August primary fight to Lamont, with a 20-point lead over his rival.
Other polls have given Lieberman a smaller lead in the high-profile race, which will not have a bearing on the Senate balance of power. Lieberman has promised to vote with Democrats if he wins his race as an independent.
The polls, taken Sept. 25 to Oct. 2 in 10 of the country's most competitive Senate races, surveyed at least 600 likely voters in each state. They have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Public unhappiness with President George W. Bush, the Iraq war and the direction of the country has created a difficult political environment for Republicans and given Democrats momentum in the election battle for the U.S. Congress.
The polls overlapped by three days with the unfolding sex scandal involving Florida Rep. Mark Foley's explicit Internet messages to teenage male congressional pages, another setback for Republicans.
The new polls showed no Republican incumbents earning support from more than 50 percent of voters, usually a bad sign for current office holders. Sen. George Allen in Virginia was the only Republican incumbent with more than 40 percent of voters saying he deserved re-election.
While the Democratic fight for Senate control will be a tough challenge, they are in enough competitive races to have a shot.
Republican Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, perhaps the biggest target for Senate Democrats, trails Democrat Bob Casey Jr. 48 percent to 36 percent. Republican Sens. Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island and Conrad Burns in Montana each trail Democratic challengers by 4 percentage points.
In Ohio, Republican Sen. Mike DeWine and Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown are in a dead heat. The Tennessee race between Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Harold Ford Jr., who are vying for the right to replace retiring Republican Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, also is deadlocked.
The new polls showed Allen ahead of Democratic challenger James Webb 48 percent to 37 percent, even though Allen's re-election bid has drawn heavy attention for his campaign trail missteps. Other polls show the race closer or even.
"Webb doesn't seem to have taken advantage of a bad couple of weeks for Allen," Zogby said.
In Missouri, where Republican Sen. Jim Talent and Democrat Claire McCaskill have been running close in polls all year, the Reuter/Zogby poll shows Talent ahead 43 percent to 39 percent.
Democrats have firm leads in two states where they are on defense, with Democratic incumbent Robert Menendez leading Republican Tom Kean Jr. 45 percent to 35 percent in New Jersey.
In Maryland, Democrat Ben Cardin leads Republican Michael Steele by 45 percent to 37 percent in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes.
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
MD SENATE Ben Cardin (D) 45% Michael Steele (R) 37%
PA SENATE Bob Casey (D) 48% Rick Santorum (D) 36%
VA SENATE George Allen (R) 48% James Webb (D) 37%
MO SENATE Jim Talent (R) 43% Claire McCaskill (D) 39%
NJ SENATE (wrong?) Bobby Menendez (D) 45% Thomas Kean (R) 35%
RI SENATE SHeldon Whitehouse (D) 45% Lincoln Chafee (R) 41%
OH SENATE Mike DeWine (R) 41% Sherrod Brown (D) 41%
TN SENATE Bob Corker (R) 40% Harold Ford (D) 40%
MT SENATE Jon Tester (D) 46% Conrad Burns (R) 42%
CT SENATE Joe Lieberman (I) 53% Ned Lamont (D) 33%
MO SENATE Jim Talent (R) 43% Claire McCaskill (D) 39%
18% undecided? Wow!
That MO race changed overnight-last night driving home, KMOX said it was even at 43%...
Well, its over I guess.
NOT NO MO...see Drudge
I can't explain OH and NJ results.
This is why polls taken in the throes of a big scandal are absolutely WORTHLESS. You never know what the real story is without some distance from the event.
Did they Photoshop the poll results as well?
There's a reason this story broke on Friday after Rush.
The hit and run media had the Sunday shows to talk it up and 3 days before Conservative talk radio could respond. But internet forums and blogs are 24-hours live.
Pajama people rule.
make that late at night the 7th or 8th or later after the vote fraud democRats wail and rant.
*snort* And the media ignore us at their own peril!
I thought I read a poll somewhere yesterday that had kearn ahead by 5?
Looks like the Webb campaign slimed themselves right into the dog house. Looks like Clintonite style attack politics aren't working out this year.
In heavily negative campaigns undecideds tend to not vote. That is what this reflects
Please keep your eye on the final few days of the races. And ignore the gay sex scandal.
If you look at the ratings the last week you will find that every Fox show is down. And every MSNBC show is up. Why? Democrats want to gloat and Republicans just want to escape the media.
Democrats are not going to vote for Repbublicans and Republicans are turned off by the unfair media. Not that long ago there were 2.3 million viewers watching O'Reiley. But now he is sex scandal all the time and his audience is off.
Hannity and Combs have done the same thing and their audience is way off. It is down to 1.7 million. It is less than GRETA.
But on the other hand Olberman, and Matthews are up. Only the people who are not going to vote for us are watching.
We are going to win this election and is the media going to be ticked.
Where are the investigative journalists in the media uncovering the background on this story and mapping the timeline?
ABC is apologizing for leaking information as to the identies of those involved (which is sinking the claims).
The same media that ridicules our military and "refuses" to air positive stories on Iraq ("what, you want us to push your propaganda") have no qualms about pushing Democrat propaganda from dirty tricks teams. And they don't even mind the appearance of impropriety.
The DNC was a conduit in the fake National Guard memos too.
Yeah, this make me feel Zogby's numbers (again) look like outliers
Not anymore they aren't.
Zogby only has five weeks to reconcile his push-poll (for the Dems) numbers with what will actually occur on election day. That is the special sauce.
He did real good in 2000, blew it in 2002, and really blew it in 2004. He didn't lay off the sauce in time during the last weeks of 2002 and 2004, and that's where he blew it. Mow I see he's already backing off now. This year it's different. Why? Because if he blows it this election, three bad election calls in a row, just who will pay him for honest election results?
NOT ANYMORE!!! SEE DRUDGE!
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