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Democrats poised for US Senate gains - Reuters poll
REUTERS ^ | Thu 5 Oct 2006 | John Whitesides

Posted on 10/05/2006 12:11:53 PM PDT by Alex1977

WASHINGTON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Democrats are poised for U.S. Senate gains in the Nov. 7 election, but face an uphill battle to pick up the six seats they need for control, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released on Thursday.

Democrats lead in five of 10 crucial Senate battlegrounds, including three Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania, Montana and Rhode Island and in Democratic-held Maryland and New Jersey.

But Republican incumbents lead in Virginia and Missouri, and Senate contests in Republican-held Ohio and Tennessee are deadlocked, the polls showed.

Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, has a big lead over Democrat Ned Lamont.

To gain a Senate majority, Democrats must hold their own vulnerable seats and sweep six of the seven at-risk Republican seats, including knocking off five Republican incumbents -- a tough but not impossible task.

"It looks like Democrats will make gains, but it will be very difficult for them to take control," pollster John Zogby said. "It is going to take an awful lot of work for them to pick up six seats."

The polls show Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee who lost an August primary fight to Lamont, with a 20-point lead over his rival.

Other polls have given Lieberman a smaller lead in the high-profile race, which will not have a bearing on the Senate balance of power. Lieberman has promised to vote with Democrats if he wins his race as an independent.

The polls, taken Sept. 25 to Oct. 2 in 10 of the country's most competitive Senate races, surveyed at least 600 likely voters in each state. They have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Public unhappiness with President George W. Bush, the Iraq war and the direction of the country has created a difficult political environment for Republicans and given Democrats momentum in the election battle for the U.S. Congress.

The polls overlapped by three days with the unfolding sex scandal involving Florida Rep. Mark Foley's explicit Internet messages to teenage male congressional pages, another setback for Republicans.

COMPETITIVE RACES

The new polls showed no Republican incumbents earning support from more than 50 percent of voters, usually a bad sign for current office holders. Sen. George Allen in Virginia was the only Republican incumbent with more than 40 percent of voters saying he deserved re-election.

While the Democratic fight for Senate control will be a tough challenge, they are in enough competitive races to have a shot.

Republican Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, perhaps the biggest target for Senate Democrats, trails Democrat Bob Casey Jr. 48 percent to 36 percent. Republican Sens. Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island and Conrad Burns in Montana each trail Democratic challengers by 4 percentage points.

In Ohio, Republican Sen. Mike DeWine and Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown are in a dead heat. The Tennessee race between Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Harold Ford Jr., who are vying for the right to replace retiring Republican Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, also is deadlocked.

The new polls showed Allen ahead of Democratic challenger James Webb 48 percent to 37 percent, even though Allen's re-election bid has drawn heavy attention for his campaign trail missteps. Other polls show the race closer or even.

"Webb doesn't seem to have taken advantage of a bad couple of weeks for Allen," Zogby said.

In Missouri, where Republican Sen. Jim Talent and Democrat Claire McCaskill have been running close in polls all year, the Reuter/Zogby poll shows Talent ahead 43 percent to 39 percent.

Democrats have firm leads in two states where they are on defense, with Democratic incumbent Robert Menendez leading Republican Tom Kean Jr. 45 percent to 35 percent in New Jersey.

In Maryland, Democrat Ben Cardin leads Republican Michael Steele by 45 percent to 37 percent in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes.

© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Connecticut; US: District of Columbia; US: Maryland; US: Missouri; US: Montana; US: New Jersey; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania; US: Rhode Island; US: Tennessee; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2006; democrats; elections; gop; polls; powerghraib; republicans; senate; vote
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Summary (most of these numbers look like outliers...):

MD SENATE Ben Cardin (D) 45% Michael Steele (R) 37%

PA SENATE Bob Casey (D) 48% Rick Santorum (D) 36%

VA SENATE George Allen (R) 48% James Webb (D) 37%

MO SENATE Jim Talent (R) 43% Claire McCaskill (D) 39%

NJ SENATE (wrong?) Bobby Menendez (D) 45% Thomas Kean (R) 35%

RI SENATE SHeldon Whitehouse (D) 45% Lincoln Chafee (R) 41%

OH SENATE Mike DeWine (R) 41% Sherrod Brown (D) 41%

TN SENATE Bob Corker (R) 40% Harold Ford (D) 40%

MT SENATE Jon Tester (D) 46% Conrad Burns (R) 42%

CT SENATE Joe Lieberman (I) 53% Ned Lamont (D) 33%

1 posted on 10/05/2006 12:11:56 PM PDT by Alex1977
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To: Alex1977

MO SENATE Jim Talent (R) 43% Claire McCaskill (D) 39%

18% undecided? Wow!


2 posted on 10/05/2006 12:13:31 PM PDT by listenhillary (Islam = Religion of peace. If you say otherwise, we'll kill you!)
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To: listenhillary

That MO race changed overnight-last night driving home, KMOX said it was even at 43%...


3 posted on 10/05/2006 12:15:03 PM PDT by cardinal4 (Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi..)
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To: Alex1977

Well, its over I guess.


4 posted on 10/05/2006 12:15:16 PM PDT by newconhere (bzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. zap)
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To: Alex1977

NOT NO MO...see Drudge


5 posted on 10/05/2006 12:16:24 PM PDT by woofer2425 (Kerry LIED)
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To: cardinal4; newconhere

I can't explain OH and NJ results.


6 posted on 10/05/2006 12:17:22 PM PDT by Alex1977
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To: Alex1977
I wonder if the story about the IMs being a prank pulled on Foley by the former page in question, then being picked up by Democrat operatives, thinking they were REAL and using them to hurt the Repubs, will affect the polls next week?

This is why polls taken in the throes of a big scandal are absolutely WORTHLESS. You never know what the real story is without some distance from the event.

7 posted on 10/05/2006 12:18:15 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: Alex1977

Did they Photoshop the poll results as well?


8 posted on 10/05/2006 12:18:32 PM PDT by stm (Katherine Harris for US Senate!)
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To: SuziQ

There's a reason this story broke on Friday after Rush.

The hit and run media had the Sunday shows to talk it up and 3 days before Conservative talk radio could respond. But internet forums and blogs are 24-hours live.

Pajama people rule.


9 posted on 10/05/2006 12:21:31 PM PDT by weegee (Remember "Remember the Maine"? Well in the current war "Remember the Baby Milk Factory")
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To: Alex1977
I think it will be a happy day for republicans Nov. 7th.
10 posted on 10/05/2006 12:22:21 PM PDT by boomop1 (there you go again)
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To: boomop1

make that late at night the 7th or 8th or later after the vote fraud democRats wail and rant.


11 posted on 10/05/2006 12:24:11 PM PDT by boomop1 (there you go again)
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To: weegee
Pajama people rule.

*snort* And the media ignore us at their own peril!

12 posted on 10/05/2006 12:25:39 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: Alex1977

I thought I read a poll somewhere yesterday that had kearn ahead by 5?


13 posted on 10/05/2006 12:25:59 PM PDT by AZRepublican ("The degree in which a measure is necessary can never be a test of the legal right to adopt it.")
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To: Alex1977

Looks like the Webb campaign slimed themselves right into the dog house. Looks like Clintonite style attack politics aren't working out this year.


14 posted on 10/05/2006 12:26:58 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Say Leftists. How many Nazis did killing Nazis in WW2 create? or Samurai? or Fascists?)
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To: listenhillary
18% undecided? Wow!

In heavily negative campaigns undecideds tend to not vote. That is what this reflects

Please keep your eye on the final few days of the races. And ignore the gay sex scandal.

If you look at the ratings the last week you will find that every Fox show is down. And every MSNBC show is up. Why? Democrats want to gloat and Republicans just want to escape the media.

Democrats are not going to vote for Repbublicans and Republicans are turned off by the unfair media. Not that long ago there were 2.3 million viewers watching O'Reiley. But now he is sex scandal all the time and his audience is off.

Hannity and Combs have done the same thing and their audience is way off. It is down to 1.7 million. It is less than GRETA.

But on the other hand Olberman, and Matthews are up. Only the people who are not going to vote for us are watching.

We are going to win this election and is the media going to be ticked.

15 posted on 10/05/2006 12:27:34 PM PDT by Common Tator
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To: SuziQ

Where are the investigative journalists in the media uncovering the background on this story and mapping the timeline?

ABC is apologizing for leaking information as to the identies of those involved (which is sinking the claims).

The same media that ridicules our military and "refuses" to air positive stories on Iraq ("what, you want us to push your propaganda") have no qualms about pushing Democrat propaganda from dirty tricks teams. And they don't even mind the appearance of impropriety.

The DNC was a conduit in the fake National Guard memos too.


16 posted on 10/05/2006 12:30:04 PM PDT by weegee (Remember "Remember the Maine"? Well in the current war "Remember the Baby Milk Factory")
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To: AZRepublican

Yeah, this make me feel Zogby's numbers (again) look like outliers


17 posted on 10/05/2006 12:30:43 PM PDT by Alex1977
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To: Alex1977

Not anymore they aren't.


18 posted on 10/05/2006 12:36:13 PM PDT by Soul Seeker (Kobach: Amnesty is going from an illegal to a legal position, without imposing the original penalty.)
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To: Alex1977

Zogby only has five weeks to reconcile his push-poll (for the Dems) numbers with what will actually occur on election day. That is the special sauce.

He did real good in 2000, blew it in 2002, and really blew it in 2004. He didn't lay off the sauce in time during the last weeks of 2002 and 2004, and that's where he blew it. Mow I see he's already backing off now. This year it's different. Why? Because if he blows it this election, three bad election calls in a row, just who will pay him for honest election results?


19 posted on 10/05/2006 12:36:49 PM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: Alex1977

NOT ANYMORE!!! SEE DRUDGE!

LLS


20 posted on 10/05/2006 12:37:05 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Preserve America... kill terrorists... destroy dims!)
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To: Soul Seeker

Exactly. Can ya re-do the poll Saturday, pretty please?


21 posted on 10/05/2006 12:37:15 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: Common Tator

Welcome back! How's the noggin?


22 posted on 10/05/2006 12:37:27 PM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: Common Tator

Do you think we can win in Ohio?


23 posted on 10/05/2006 12:43:12 PM PDT by Alex1977
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To: Alex1977

not so sure after foleygate


24 posted on 10/05/2006 12:44:28 PM PDT by dubie
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To: Alex1977
VA SENATE George Allen (R) 48% James Webb (D) 37%

MO SENATE Jim Talent (R) 43% Claire McCaskill (D) 39%

RI SENATE SHeldon Whitehouse (D) 45% Lincoln Chafee (R) 41%

Wonderful news if this holds up. Two conservatives reelected and liberal removed from the GOP. Now, if Santorum could just make a comeback and DeWine would headed toward defeat, it could be a good day for conservatives.

25 posted on 10/05/2006 12:53:58 PM PDT by Ol' Sparky
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To: dubie

i don't know if it'll lose ohio, but it certainly isn't helping anywhere. still more than a month to go.


26 posted on 10/05/2006 12:55:24 PM PDT by slick8790
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To: Alex1977

MSM can produce their tainted biased polls all they want. Come election day, it will be a different story.

These schmucks, along with the rest of the liberal biased pollsters have Maria Cantwell winning in Eastern Washington. Pure delusion. But its what happens every election. The MSM and democrats work hand in hand to release these polls, and if after the election the democraps lose, they will sue for recounts claiming the polls provide proof that the republicans commited election fraud somehow.


27 posted on 10/05/2006 1:01:47 PM PDT by Proud_USA_Republican (We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good. - Hillary Clinton)
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To: Alex1977

When you count the rino slime from the North East, the democrats already control the US Senate!


28 posted on 10/05/2006 1:04:40 PM PDT by thiscouldbemoreconfusing
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To: MNJohnnie

"The new polls showed Allen ahead of Democratic challenger James Webb 48 percent to 37 percent, even though Allen's re-election bid has drawn heavy attention for his campaign trail missteps. Other polls show the race closer or even.

"Webb doesn't seem to have taken advantage of a bad couple of weeks for Allen," Zogby said. "

I've been told by some Freepers that Allen is toast for the presidential race. I wonder if that's the case if he beats Webb by 10?


29 posted on 10/05/2006 1:13:12 PM PDT by FastCoyote
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To: Alas Babylon!
Zogby only has five weeks to reconcile his push-poll (for the Dems) numbers with what will actually occur on election day. That is the special sauce.

What did you say? Zogby has a push/tush poll, showing the Democrats win the house handily?

30 posted on 10/05/2006 2:06:55 PM PDT by Stepan12 (NY Times: Bush finds cure for cancer; healthcare workers to suffer massive layoffs)
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To: Alex1977

"NJ SENATE (wrong?) Bobby Menendez (D) 45% Thomas Kean (R) 35%"

Most recent polls have Kean ahead. No way he's down by 10 points. I would question the sampling in that poll when 5 out of 7 polls contradict it.

09/18 Quinnipiac - Kean +3
09/21 Monmouth - Kean +8
09/22 Rasmussen - Kean +1
09/26 Rutgers - Menendez +1
09/27 Mason-Dixon - Menendez +3
09/28 Marist - Kean +5
10/01 Strategic Vision - Kean +5



31 posted on 10/05/2006 2:22:06 PM PDT by ScottfromNJ
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To: Alas Babylon!

zogby is a muzzie and will do anything to help the lib/dem cause!!!

reuters is socialist anti-american and will do likewise!

why would anyone with a brain believe this crap....

everyone should crawl over glass if necessary to keep the lib/dems from f'ing up the US!!!!


32 posted on 10/05/2006 2:26:19 PM PDT by hnj_00
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To: boomop1

"I think it will be a happy day for republicans Nov. 7th."

I've got champagne chilling already. This is all Liberal Projection.

And no one EVER calls me to ask my opinion for these polls, so I can only deduce that they're not really sampling across the board.

We've already gotten rid of our drunken sot Attorney General, Peg "The Keg" Lautenschlager, D, WI.) She lost in the primary.


Now it's onward and upward to get JB Van Hollen (R, WI) elected to replace her, and to get rid of our DemonRat Governor and replace him with Mark Green (R, WI.)

Trust me, I and others in this Swing State are working our butts off to make this happen. Granted, we'll be stuck with Senators Kohl and Feingold and our CongressLesbian Tammy Baldwin for the rest of their natural lives, but we're doing what we can up here. :)


33 posted on 10/05/2006 2:33:38 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (Save The Earth. It's The Only Planet With Chocolate.)
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To: Common Tator

Welcome back.


34 posted on 10/05/2006 2:40:00 PM PDT by eureka! (Heaven forbid the Rats get control of Congress and/or the Presidency any time soon....)
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To: thiscouldbemoreconfusing

Sure! But the picture may even getting worse.


35 posted on 10/05/2006 2:40:45 PM PDT by Alex1977
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To: listenhillary

They've got 20% undecided in Tennessee and New Jersey, and 18% undecided in Ohio.


36 posted on 10/05/2006 2:43:04 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: Alex1977

Negative...negative.....negative...uh uh. (shaking head and grinning)

NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!!


37 posted on 10/05/2006 2:45:22 PM PDT by LadyPilgrim ((Sealed my Pardon with HIS BLOOD!!! Hallelujah!!! What a Savior))
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To: LadyPilgrim

Unfortunately, many of us don't live in Alabama... like you.

;-))

Alex


38 posted on 10/05/2006 2:48:38 PM PDT by Alex1977
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To: Stepan12; Lazamataz

Too bad you weren't here for the 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004 elections. We've been watching Mr. Zogby for some time now.

This is how he worked in 1998 and 2000:
Up through September, show all Dems ahead. In October, show rapid Republican gains until, come election day eve, he shows pretty much how the election will tally. In 2000, he was the closest pollster of all.

In 2002 and 2004, he came up with so many democrats ahead, there was no way save a miracle for the Republicans to win. In fact, he stated that the election of 2004 was "Kerry's to lose".

We seemed to note the pattern for Zogby: Show what he hopes the vote will be (pro-Dem) until right before the election, and then change the numbers to get the actual results. That is what FReepers refer to as the "special sauce". I belive Lazmataz made that up. Laz, correct me if I'm wrong.


39 posted on 10/05/2006 2:51:36 PM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: Alex1977
Yada Yada Yada wait till Nov. Screw the Polls Kerry (was in Vietiam) and was supposed to be President. Move along nothing to see here.
40 posted on 10/05/2006 2:54:21 PM PDT by bikerman (Democrats the cut and run party.)
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To: Alex1977

I know....but....but....but....let's strongly emphasis.....the rats are not taking over the Senate....or the House.
Don't believe it for a minute! It won't happen. ;-)


41 posted on 10/05/2006 2:55:05 PM PDT by LadyPilgrim ((Sealed my Pardon with HIS BLOOD!!! Hallelujah!!! What a Savior))
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To: Common Tator

Ray, you have no idea how wonderful it is to see you posting again.

Praise God from whom all blessings flow.


42 posted on 10/05/2006 6:27:49 PM PDT by Grandma Pam
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To: FastCoyote

--I've been told by some Freepers that Allen is toast for the presidential race. I wonder if that's the case if he beats Webb by 10? --

Actually it's good for Allen, if this phony race-card
crap is all the Donkeyrats can muster. It's all being flushed out now and isn't hurting him that badly. He may
be inoculated against similar allegations in the Prez. campaign.


43 posted on 10/05/2006 7:14:07 PM PDT by rfp1234 (I've had it up to my keyster with these leaks!!! - - - Ronald Reagan)
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To: rfp1234

Don't worry for Allen, he will win hands down. Instead, troubles are for Republican seats in PA, OH and MT.


44 posted on 10/05/2006 10:32:56 PM PDT by Alex1977
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To: SuziQ

The key purpose of these worthless polls is to get GOP donors to close their wallets.


45 posted on 10/06/2006 6:34:09 AM PDT by mwl1
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To: mwl1
The key purpose of these worthless polls is to get GOP donors to close their wallets.

Just like the reason for flogging the Foley story is to get Repub. voters to stay home in this next election. The more we find out about the story though, I think the base is going to get even MORE fired up, simply out of anger with the Dems.

46 posted on 10/06/2006 7:01:00 AM PDT by SuziQ
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To: Alex1977

For the next two years, any seat count for Republicans between 50 and 59 is a push. The degree of control compared to what they have now doesn't change.


47 posted on 10/06/2006 7:03:42 AM PDT by IamConservative (A mans true character is revealed in what he does when no one is watching.)
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To: Common Tator; All

Welcome back CT. You have described my attitude to a T. We have been so busy lately that if I listen to anybody it is Rush and Brit Hume and his news report and that is it. I pick up what else is going on by reading FR and other informed sites. I hate the Republicans, if that is actually their party, who want us to lose but won't come out and say so. They just keep chipping away every chance they get. I think that, unlike Rush, they need new material to keep their acts going and that means a RAT win. I sincerely hope that when we win in November, those who knifed Pres Bush and the Republicans working for a victory get a severe backlash resulting in them losing their profitable jobs. I have had it with party traitors.


48 posted on 10/06/2006 2:53:44 PM PDT by mountainfolk (God bless President George Bush)
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To: boomop1

I'm sorry to say,and I hope I'm wrong, but the Democrats are going to win big time.The Republicans NEVER defended the cause they let the democrats and the Media get away with the lies for too long,and people now believe it as fact.As usual Republicans are too late,with too little to say.


49 posted on 10/06/2006 3:00:01 PM PDT by patriciamary
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To: patriciamary

It is always this way, every election, I think the Rats are weaker then ever.


50 posted on 10/06/2006 3:13:17 PM PDT by boomop1 (there you go again)
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