Posted on 10/09/2006 6:01:22 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
AZ- After spending over $8 million of his own money, developer Jim Pederson has narrowed Republican Senator Jon Kyl's lead to around 10 - 14 points. But it would take a 1974 style landslide for Pederson to actually win, and few see anything like that happening. LIKELY REPUBLICAN
CA- Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein remains far ahead of former state Senator Richard Mountjoy. Mountjoy has shaved a few points off the margin, but not enough to threaten Feinstein. SAFE DEMOCRAT
CT- Republicans ceded this race some time ago. Did they wring any concessions out of Joe Lieberman, the Democratis Senator running as an Independent? Some voters who HAD supported moonbat socialite Ned Lamont (D)are experiencing buyers' remorse, and Lieberman is pulling away. LEANING INDEPENDENT (pro-WOT liberal)
DE- Democratic Senator Thomas Carper is safe against former Deputy INS Commissioner Jan Ting. SAFE DEMOCRAT
FL- Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is running against Republican Congresswoman Katherine Harris. Given the amount of hard feelings this topic generates, I won't say anymore, except that I hope I'm wrong about it.
HI- Democatic Senator Daniel Akaka won the Democratic primary by 55% to 45%, less than expected. Republicans are running state Representative Cynthia Thielen, who has potential to appeal to those who supported Akaka's primary opponent, but Democrats look united. Conservatives can only hope that popular Republican Governor Linda Lingle has VERY long coattails. LIKELY DEMOCRAT
IN- Veteran Republican Senator Richard Lugar has no Democrat opponent, a first in Indiana history. Too bad he isn't lifting a finger to help other Indiana Republicans in tough races. SAFE REPUBLICAN
MD- An unpredictable race. Democratic Congressman Ben Cardin is leading Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele, who is African-American, by slim margins. Steele is a charismatic, well-liked candidate who's running an innovative campaign. But excellent as he is, even Steele faces tough sledding in heavily Democrat Maryland. A wild card are African-American voters, who are loyally Democrat but are intrigued by Steele's candidacy. LEANING DEMOCRAT
MA- The World's Oldest Juvenile Delinquent (you know who) will return to the Senate. Kevin Scott is the GOP's latest yawner. SAFE DEMOCRAT
MI- Democrat Senator Debbie Stabenow is leading Republican Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, but the margins have been all over the chart. Bouchard is an attractive candidate, but is struggling financially. Stabenow should win, but dissatisfaction with the economy and Stabenow's less-than-stellar approval ratings make this unpredictable. LEANING DEMOCRAT
MN- Democrat Hennipen County District Attorney Amy Kobluchar is pulling away from Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy. Kennedy has tried running whimsical ads a la Paul Wellstone. But while such tactics work in good times, in these troubled times they made Kennedy look plastic and frivolous. Bush's popularity has fallen more in the upper Midwest than any other part of the country. LIKELY DEMOCRAT
MS- Republican Senator Trent Lott will easily defeat Democrat state Representative Erik Fleming, a Lyndon LaRouche supporter. That's the good news. The bad news is he wants his old job as GOP floor leader back. ACK! SAFE REPUBLICAN
MO- Republican Senator Jim Talent and Democrat state Auditor Claire McCaskill are running neck and neck in every poll. Talent is worthy of his name, but has run a surprisingly timid, dull campaign. McCaskill was embarrassed by a gaffe about Bush's response to Hurricane Katrina, but the damage wasn't lasting. DOUBTFUL
MT- Republican Senator Conrad Burns is trailing Democrat state Senator Jon Tester by some 5 to 9 points and suffers from growing disapproval from the state's citizenry. Montana is a conservative, Republican state, but Burns ties to scandal-tainted lobbyists and repeated gaffes have made him, not conservative-vs-liberal policies, the issue. LEANING DEMOCRAT
NE- Democrat Senator Ben Nelson is running comfortably ahead of Republican brokerage magnate Pete Ricketts. On the plus side, Ricketts decision to spend $10 million of his own money means that Republicans can focus their resources elsewhere. LIKELY DEMOECRAT
NV- Republican Senator John Ensign is leading Democrat businessman Jack Carter (son of ex-President Malaise), although the margins have varied somewhat. Carter has climbed some, but was set back by health problems and the fact that voters have no particular complaint against Ensign. LIKELY REPUBLICAN
NJ- After falling behind a few weeks ago, Democrat Senator Bob Menendez appears to have pulled slightly ahead of RINO state Senator Thomas Kean, Jr. He is outspending Kean by a massive margin, but his lead is so small, it's pretty much meaningless, and the undecided vote remains high. DOUBTFUL
NM- Democrat Senator Jeff Bingaman is far ahead of Republican physician Allen McCulloch, who was never able to muster the resources needed to take advantage of his interesting background. SAFE DEMOCRAT
NY- The Hildabeast will be back. She will easily defeat former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer, whose personal life and nasty primary resemble an episode of The Jerry Springer Show. SAFE DEMOCRAT
ND- Democrat Senator Kent Conrad yet again didn't draw a known opponent. Republican farmer Dwight Grotberg hasn't made any headway, to the surprise of no one. SAFE DEMOCRAT
OH- After falling a few points behind, Republican Senator Mike DeWine appears to be pulling even with uber-leftist Congressman Sherrod Brown. If DeWine does lose, it won't be to Brown but to RINO Governor Bob Taft, whose unpopularity is radioactive. DOUBTFUL
PA- This sucks out loud! After gaining ground in September, Republican Senator appears to have stalled and trails Democrat state Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr. by about 10 points. Santorum has closed strong throughout hsi career, but is really swimming upsrtream. LEANING DEMOCRAT
RI- After winning a tough primary against a conservative, uber-RINO Senator Lincoln Chafee is in a close race with former state Attorney General Sheldon Whiltehouse. The race has swung back and forth, with Whitehouse currently ahead by a few points. Anything is possible. DOUBTFUL
TN- This race has become a huge headache for conservatives. First, the primary was won by RINO ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, who won through big bucks and platitudes. Now, he's blown his early lead over Democratic Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. and the race is too close to call. Ford has smartly attacked Corker's business dealings, but many undecided voters regard Ford as unaccaptable. DOUBTFUL
TX- The only Senate race in which both major party nominees are women, but it's drawn little press. Republican Senator Kay Hutchison is a shoo-in against Democrat lawyer Barbara Radnofsky. SAFE REPUBLICAN
UT- Republican Sentaor Orrin Hatch is way ahead of Democrat tech entrepeneur Pete Ashdown, who some say is using this race as a springboard for a future election. SAFE REPUBLICAN
VT- Liberal Independent James Jeffords is retiring, and Socialist Independent Bernard Sanders is far ahead in the race to succeed him. Republican businessman Richard Tarrant is running on his biography, but has made little headway at cracking Sanders strong base of support. SAFE "INDEPENDENT"
VA- The race between Republican Senator George Allen and former U.S. Secretary of the Navy James Webb is the most volatile of the year. Charges and countercharges about slurs dominated September. Allen appeared to be pulling ahead after a masterful speech made with paid advertising, but now questions about his business dealings have materialized. DOUBTFUL
WA- Another race that's become nasty and unpredictable. Democrat Senator Maria Cantwell leads Republican insurance magnate Mike McGavick, though the margin has varied in the past couple of months. The political environment and state's leanings favor Cantwell, but she's never developed much of a following there. LEANING DEMOCRAT
WV- Democrat Senator Robert Byrd fancies himself a Constitutional scholar, but is a truly pompous ass. That and questions about his pulse & brainwaves gave Republicans an opening, but their candidate (industrialist John Raese) was never able to take advantage of it. SAFE DEMOCRAT
WI- Another recruiting failure by Republicans. Democratic Senator Herb Kohl, the Daddy Warbucks of Wisconsin, is a sure bet against Republican Robert Lorge, a lawyer and perrinnial candidate. SAFE DEMOCRAT
WY- One could say that it would take a rocket scientist to defeat Republican Senator Craig Thomas. But he actually is being challenged by a rocket scientist, Democrat Dale Groutage, and is still a shoo-in. SAFE REPUBLICAN
Remember, this is a snapshot, not a crystal ball. Don't get discouraged.
Here's how I see it today. Maybe the serious issue of North Korean nuclear proliferation will take voters minds off of Mark Foley's talking trash.
You think Foley is on the voter's minds?
I don't think so.
Your doubtfuls should at least be "Tossups" as they are all in Red States and essentially tied.
Doubtful and tossup are essentially the same thing.
Don't know about that - he is advertising heavily in the Louisville media market in an apparent effort to help turnout in favor of Sodrel.
This must be a recent development.
N-i-c-e job---thanks for the ping.
New poll posted today shows Santroum down 5. Thread here.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1716553/posts
I thought I understood the book definition of socialism but I never understood why people want more of the same misery when they have a choice.
Never mind, just figured it out </wink> lazy people's vote count as the same value as those that actually contribute to the nation's success.
I don't think the mud-slinging has hurt Allen (VA) so badly that he'll lose. Not really a tossup/doubtful as of now. The negative stores seemed to be backfiring, but haven't followed the aftermath of the business revalation .. he didn't declare stock options.
You're very welcome, and I'm happy to do it.
Worthless stock options. APs trying to make people misunderstand the issue. Allen had some stock options in companies, the options are essentially worthless (one was worth about 2000 bucks in 2001). They were given him as compensation when he was on their boards, they weren't companies he helped as governor.
There was also a 250,000 deferred compensation PAYMENT. That WAS declared when received, and it was the same payment given to EVERY board member, which includes several democrat officeholders. Allen got advanced permission from the Senate Ethics committee on that payment.
He is guilty of a technical disclosure violation because he was supposed to list the worthless stock options, just in case someone thought he might be trying to do things to make them worth something.
But the AP found nothing he did, except that he did ask the ARMY to respond to a query by one company -- the army responded negatively, and Allen did not intervene.
There's nothing at all to the story, just AP trying to throw some mud around in the hopes it might stick.
I have never seen the mainstream press go after a candidate like this. Clearly, this is an attempt to help the Democrats in the 2008 election, not objectively report the news.
Thanks for the ping, good job. I think the closer to the election the more the voters will lean to the right, JMO.
I think I agree with your predictions pretty closely. There are a few things I would change (such as calling each "doubtful" race for the candidate towards which it currently leans), but overall we're in decent agreement.
McGavick will need to win by 10,000 votes in order to defeat the fraud in King County. That's a tall order.
Could be done provided the WA CD #4 & 5 Republicans get out and vote. No way can the tri-county Pugetopolis mine that many McGavick votes.
It will be up to the GOTV efforts in the remaining 35 counties to rid us of Cantwell.
I think debats can be important, but IO don't see anyone commenting on them and their impact. Why?
Pre North Korea I was at 50 R's
Today I upped it to 53.
Winners: Kean, DeWine, Corker (who is a lousy candidate), and Talent.
Losers: Still Burns, Santorum, and Chafee.
I agree with your numbers. You are spot on.
Agree completely and if NK launchs another one make that 55.
What is a recent development? new predictions?
I meant that Lugar advertising in the Louisville TV market was a recent development, as this is the first I've heard of it.
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