Posted on 10/12/2006 7:50:51 AM PDT by TonyInOhio
On new polls suggesting that the Republicans could be, in the words of some analysts, in free fall
Let me first say I do think that we are in a very challenging environment. I think that the situation with [Rep. Mark] Foley has made it even more challenging, but ... I have not seen a significant impact in most of the races around the country and I certainly haven't seen a free fall.
The three issues that I think we're dealing with [in the polls]: first of all is the partisanship of the electorate. In the last 25 years, the electorate has ranged from plus-4 Democrat to plus-2 Republican in '02. In the most recent poll's partisanship, USA/Gallup is plus-9 Democratic electorate, ABC News is plus-11 Democratic electorate, CBS/New York Times plus-5, Newsweek plus-8, Time plus-8, AP/Ipsos plus-8. So, every one of these polls has an electorate that looks more Democratic than any electorate has looked in 25 years.
Second, the Gallup specifically is the outlier in the change in the generic ballot. The Pew poll that came out recently showed no change in the generic ballot since the Foley scandal; other national polls have shown on average a 2-point dip, the Gallup showed a 23-point dip, which I don't think is convincing.
The third issue of course is the relevance of the national polls in predicting House races and the challenge that Democrats always have is that our voters are more efficiently distributed. You saw that in the recent battleground that came out between [pollsters] Celinda Lake and Ed Goeas, which showed an 8-point Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. But in the Republican districts that the Democrats have to win to win back Congress, it was even. In the Democratic districts, it was a 21-point Democratic advantage.
Translation: "Every one of these polls is lying because they are oversampling Dems."
If we hold, I would think this would set teh Dems and the media back ....well at least for 20 months or so, until they try it all again.
Translation: "Every one of these polls is lying because they are oversampling Dems."
Wonder what the sample rate was on the poll showing a tie in the districts the Dems need to win? Is Mehlman essentially saying we have a 3-5 point lead in the seats we need to win?
My wife is entertaining a liberal houseguest which means I had to endure listening to CNN News for the first time since I don't know when.
It's everybit as bad as I had feared. They are just stirring and stirring the pot on this Foley business. They just advertised a "CNN Special Report" about how middle class America is DOOMED, I tell you, DOOMED. In short, they're obviously unashamedly pulling out all stops for the DemonRATS.
Lower than whale dreck. I need to go take a shower.
He bought junk land. Zoning and environment laws stood in the way of the land being utilized.
He sold the land to his own company for $400,000 (but kept the sale secret from the Senate reports).
That got his name off the deed.
He then used his political power to get the zoning and environmental laws changed so the land could be used for contracting. Because the land was not "linked" to Reid, no one complained about the conflict of interest.
Then, he reclaimed the land and put it back in his own name after he got the laws changed for his own personal profit, sold it because his political power was able to clear the way, and made a cool $1.5 million on the scam.
This whole Reid scandal was Reid changing laws and pulling political strings for Reid himself to make millions. It had nothing to do with the American people at all.
Even when polling mostly democrats, the "Foley scandal" is having little affect on people voting in their own districts. Who's going to change their party affiliation because of some gay perv in Florida?
He only matters in his own home district. They have to chose a new guy.
Watch what the politicians do. The democrat politicians are running as Republicans. That tells you they know they're toast.
Democrats are even trying to make Republicans look like low life democrats! "Don't vote for that Republican! He's too much like a democrat! I'm a democrat, but the best Republican to vote for in this election."
"I read somewhere (no source sorry) that Ken Mehlman was going to be either the first or second name mentioned in the next few weeks that the Rogers guy is going to "kick out of the closet". I didn't give it much concern which is why I don't even remember the source." ~ napscoordinator
Don't doubt it. The twisted sex-obsessed neurotics who post at sites like these two mentioned below are bound and determined to ruin the lives of anyone they perceive to be standing in the way of their agenda.
Huffington Post 9/4/06
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jim-moore/the-closets-of-karl-and-k_b_28669.html
DailyKos 1-22-06
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/1/22/1759/64206
The one poll the MSM won't push is that over 60% are favorable to their own Reps.
I can't be polled. If I detect a computer pause when I answer the phone, I'm gone. Where do I show up? In the margin of error?
This is not a story. Reid is not a Republican.
I'm already seeing the images of the anchors on the MSM cable news channels either being elated and unable to contain themselves on election night or ready to run through windows.
I think this is going to be close and will be a long election night.
No way the predictions of a 1994 type overthrow happen here because the media is not looking at a granular level in these races as Mehlman points out here. But Republicans are going to be in a dire fight to keep both houses.
I just hope those smug smiles on the anchors faces disappear by the end of the night. I'm still holding out hope for McCarville again wearing a trash can over his head but that's a long shot.
Conservatives have demonstrated they "DON'T ASK" and they "DON'T TELL". Ah, but to OFFEND the "morals voters" with intent of swaying an election, a whole lot of liberals sure have been asking and telling to protect the children.
Imagine that, a segment of the population has been identified as 'MORAL'.
They put you down as a Dem and mark all the appropriate boxes.
I'm already seeing the images of the anchors on the MSM cable news channels either being elated and unable to contain themselves on election night or ready to run through windows.
I think this is going to be close and will be a long election night.
No way the predictions of a 1994 type overthrow happen here because the media is not looking at a granular level in these races as Mehlman points out here. But Republicans are going to be in a dire fight to keep both houses.
I just hope those smug smiles on the anchors faces disappear by the end of the night. I'm still holding out hope for McCarville again wearing a trash can over his head but that's a long shot.
The Senate is probably more vulnerable to party affiliation swings and now seems more volatile in turnover than the House. The exact opposite of what the Framers intended.
20 minutes...
I caught CNN the other evening for the first time in ages. Jack Cafferty had an e-mail segment called, "Advice for the GOP." Every e-mail he read was from a moonbat, saliviating over the Republican loss of Congress. And CNN wonders why they're losing viewers?
Absolutely one of the best I have seen yet.............
:}
Thank you for the two threads. They were even worse than I thought. You know Ken is doing great things for the Republican Party and I bet those KOS guys are just jealous that their democratic weirdo guy (can't think of his name at the moment) is seriously screwing up and might even make them lose seats. If I was Ken (whether he is gay or not) I would sue those idiots for following him around and asking questions that he has already answered (he does not have to answer the question for one, but even the answer he gave should be enough). I am so glad that democrats are self distructive in their elections. As much as they try, they just can't find that story or event that will stick and allow victory!!!! I was to be honest one of those that wanted gridlock with Republicans to be head of Senate and House (ONLY for fiscal reasons), but after the last two weeks, I hope that Republicans get 100 seats in the Senate and 435 seats in the House (lol).
I sure hope he's right. Terry McAwful was way off on his predictions when he was chairman of the DNC. But then, with McAwful, it is hard to tell if he was just deluded or lying through his teeth as usual.
It wasn't clear from Melman's statement if they truly are "oversampling" Dems or if more people are claiming to be Dems, which results in them being sampled more.
You're welcome. There are only two _viable_ political parties. In only one of those two parties do conservatives have any voice at all. Third-party voters or those who sit home are actually casting their votes for DemocRATS. They are short-sighted and in reality, are undercutting whatever progress we have been able to make.
This is a slow motion version of the Kerry Winning exit poll strategy. Tell everyone that the rats are unstoppably winning and the voters will resign to it and stay home or join the bandwagon. But we had the internet to challenge and dissapate that garbage and Bush won easily in FLA, and other places where those polls said he could not win.
Everything like this is someone's plan. We just need plans to overcome their plans.
Good.
I can screwm till my lungs ache that the polls are junk, but the skittish Reps on the Hill won't listen. They'll probably listen to Melhman who has real internals rather then push polls to back up the fact the MSM is pushing propaganda.
Here in OH, it's stunning. I've walked two different precincts in older Kettering, near UD, which should be HEAVILY Dem. Three out of four houses are GOP. I've only seen ONE Strickland sign---dozens of Blackwell signs.
Spoke to my supervisor about the utter absence of any walkers, ground game, etc. She said this is and ongoing, amazing thing that the Dems have ZERO ground game and ZERO walkers!!! Do you get the significance of this? Our research shows that personal contact, even through a lit drop, is the second best way to get a vote (a phone call is the best). We've dropped close to 200,000 pieces of lit in OH for Blackwell in the last three weeks.
The Dems and their pet pollsters (which is almost ALL pollsters) are attempting a full court press to demoralize Republican voters.
This demoraliation campaign worked...almost...back in 2000, when the MSM declared AlGore the "winner" of Florida's electoral votes. Based on what? Exit POLLS.
Between 10,000 and 15,000 Bush voters in the Florida panhandle --who hadn't voted yet-- gave up and went home without voting upon hearing that "news."
Even Democrat pollster Bob Beckel confirmed those numbers in his post-election analysis.
Among other pollster tricks, all having the effect and obvious design of boosting the Rats and attempting to discourage GOPers.
Is that the same Mehlman who said that conservatives favor candidates the support "comprehensive" immigration reform over securing our borders??
This is an ongoing debate in the polling community - should they control for party affiliation? Many (like Gallup) feel that party affiliation is not a fixed thing, and people switch back and forth between calling themselves members of one party or another. That's why you see a lot of insane whipsaws in Gallup. Others, like Rasmussen and Zogby, control for party affiliation.
I'm talking to pollsters and strategists in PA and they are seeing the same thing. So these pollsters like Ras and Mason-Dixon this time around are missing something big. I don't know why, but I'm here to tell you they ain't gettin' it. For most of the polls, whatever they say, I do a 10% adjustment: take the Dem down 5% and move the Republican up 5%. But some polls are so silly that even that adjustment doesn't give you an accurate number.
This will probably be a very low turnout election. Whenever there is a lot of mudslinging (a la Foley), the non-aligned voters get turned off and often don't bother to vote at all.
Look for the Dems to pull some last minute race-baiting to try and help with black turnout.
It will be a low turnout on the part of the Dems, that's for sure.
Dems don't have as much Soros money this year.
Gawd, I hope you're right!
But the money is irrelevant. That point was clear in 2004 when they were ROLLING in money and tried to HIRE a ground game. They still have the same strat in 2006, but without as much money. It's a losing strat.
can people in other parts of OH verify they have had same experience?
I'm voting Republican because, while they may be sinners, too, at least they have standards that they apply TO THEMSELVES, unlike Democrats who rationalize away literally everything.
Foley was forced to resign---by his own party.
Clinton? no way.
Bubbles Kennedy? No way
Hillary's cattle futures scam with Tyson and Red Bone? Hey, as the smartest woman in the world she hooked up with the smartest futures swindler in America.
Cantwell? no way.
Gary Studds? The Dems stood and applauded the child molester.
Harry Reid? What's a little rip-off? Big deal.
The Dems are probably itching to prove Mehlman is gay or something.
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