Posted on 10/14/2006 5:51:57 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
The Democratic Party remains the most popular political organization before next month’s congressional election in the United States, according to a poll by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News. 50 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while 41 per cent would support the Republican contender.
Support for the Democrats increased by one point since September, while backing for the Republicans went up by 10 points. American voters will renew the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate on Nov. 7.
Internal numbers?
I predict the GOP holds the House and Senate. I also predict the GOP holds the presidency. In fact, I'm sure a Republican will be in the White House after November 7.
A fact which will continue to drive them nuts for a couple of years.
Generic polling data is not really very useful. People are almost always fed up with how Washington works so the party in power usually does badly in these generic polls. Attach names to the question and things usually change because most people seem to be under the impression that their own congresscritter is one of the few good ones. The problem is this year a lot of the non-generic polls have us hurting too. This is going to be an interesting election.
"In fact, I'm sure a Republican will be in the White House after November 7."
Quite the crystal ball you've got there, lol.
just a reminder of the polls in 2004
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/generic_vote.html
CBS News 10/14 - 10/17 39% 45% D + 6%
Rasmussen 10/14 - 10/16 42% 44% D + 2%
Newsweek 10/14 - 10/15 43% 46% D + 3%
GW-Battleground 10/11 - 10/14 40% 44% D + 4%
Karl, where are you? If you have an October surprise up your sleeve, you're waiting rather a long time to unfurl it.
If the Republicans are within 5 in the generic polls by election day, they hold both Houses.
The polls aren't honest. The only poll that counts is the election.
Well, yes and no. It is like the national popular vote polls. The electoral college is what actually decides things, but the popular vote poll gives an idea about where things stand.
Okay, the MSM, smelly polls and doom sayers have convinced me to sit out the election. NOT
This Dim advantage would be interesting if this was a national election.
About 20 House Districts are tied or going slightly Dim.
A national poll will not provide any clue on who controls the House.
Maybe the general theme might have an impact on the Senate, but not enough to turn six seats over to the surrender monkeys.
If it's a doozy, a few/several days before the election may be good enough? If it's too long, there will be time for Dems to fight back.
In CA, I am going to sit out for the most part - except the ballot measures. My House district is 85% DU and 15% Independent. No way I would vote for Ahnold.
People say this like it's a bad thing, but I submit it could be a good thing. Means that the Representatives tend to represent the constituents of their districts well. It's all them other f'ers, like the ones in Massachusetts for example, that are screwing everything up.
The most postitive thing about this poll is it showing support for Republicans up 9 points. I understand what these polls are saying, but they're causing a great deal of cognitive dissonance in me.
It just makes no sense that these polls say the macacas have a double digit lead on morality and defense. I can't get my arms around that.
"Things... Never are as bad as they seem... So dream... Dream... Dream..."
The larger the polling sample, the smaller the error factor (that old "+ or - 5 points," for example), but there's always an error factor. How easy is it, therefore, to get poll results showing, for example,
(D) .... 44%
and (R) .... 40% where,if you've really added in an error
factor of 4 to a (D) of 40% to get your "44%" and you subtracted 4 points, for "error" from the (R)'s 44% to get your (R) 40%.
Squirelly. The "trend" is what we need to watch; if the pollsters don't want to look too dishonest, they'll start to "up" the (R) numbers to reflect reality, but never to the point that shows the Republicans actually ahead, IMO. I think the process of "adjusting" the polls towards reality is already happening. Hope that's not just Wishful Thinking.
I'm hopeful that the polls are rigged like never before this time around. Anyway, the way these are being trumpeted, saying pubs might as well stay home because we have no chance, make me think they might drive us to the polls in record numbers, and make the rats forget to vote because they have it in the bag.
They're going to be surprised when they find out their poll was "FReeped"
The MSM forgets president Bush can use his veto, duh.
Yessir!
"The polls aren't honest. The only poll that counts is the election."
You are absolutely correct. If the Republicans do hold on to the house then the Democrats will scream they cheated because "polls" showed they were ahead.
Down nine in the generic ballot?
We hold the House, then.
I don't know where you get that idea. I'm never voting for Bush again. Ever.
Conservatives must win. Period!
Another Liberal Poll by the MSM (in this case, Fox News).
"If the Republicans do hold on to the house then the Democrats will scream they cheated because "polls" showed they were ahead."
OMG! I never thought of that- they WOULD, too.
Well he is 5 years late but it is about time president Bush started using his veto power.
Having made that totally inane comment, I'm 100% with you. I am convinced that the left has so distorted the process of polling as part of their subversion of the news cycle as to make their information more than meaningless and actively mitigated against any useful transfer of information.
I am of the mind that, like the last, oh, 8 election cycles, the "secret" of victory is turn out. The Democrat/DBM strategy is to suppress conservative and particularly Christian conservative turnout. I think they have failed. I think that they will suffer a defeat that will make 1994 look like a picnic for them. I further predict that the Democrat party as we know it will cease to exist after this debacle and that they will break up into warring camps of enraged leftist special interest groups who are way out of the mainstream of American thought. They are way out of the mainstream of American thought today, but by ganging up together they give each other's wacko agenda legitimacy. That patina will be stripped away and they will submerge themselves into the obscurity that they so richly deserve.
Good one!
And I bet that Bush won't run for re-election!
You're right; the timing has to be exquisite. But it's very difficult to envision any "doozy" that would alienate voters from every Democratic candidate in the House and Senate. I hope Karl has something.
In 2004 they kept adjusting the polling numbers right up to and including the exit polls, in an effort to influence the outcome of the election. I expect nothing different this time, except more exaggerated numbers, in favor of the Dems. The liberals are unbelievably slimy little creatures. Getting more slimely and slippery as they years go by too.
An interesting point. But one must consider they had Kerry taking popular and electoral and Zogby said it would be a landslide.
Though close in electoral, Bush got about 5 million more votes.
Even if Kommissar Pelosi and her fellow communists win a majority, it's going to be by one, maybe three seats. How does she think she's going to get ANYTHING done?
The liberals have been planting poisonous seeds of ill will for six years now. They will reap nothing but misery and grief for the short two years they have nominal control.
I hope he does. There was a NewsMax article that said he did, but it is somewhat vague.
Good news ping
I agree. My opinion on these generic 'party v. party' polls is that the R's can generally only top out at 65% to 35% wins in the strongest of 'strong Republican districts', but plenty of Democrat majority districts deliver 85%+ wins in contested races in urban districts. Thus, if the Congressional D's aren't up at least 5 points on election eve - it's an R landslide!
Happily, we don't elect Congress in an 'at large' format...
Anyone have any generic party v. party polling data from mid-October 1994 when there was a Republican Congressional landslide?
Reagan80
5.56mm
The only thing Pelosi wants is to bring impeachment hearings against Bush and Cheney. And we all know who is third in line for the Presidency.
She can easily tie Congress in knots for two years if they get a majority. I suppose that would get the GOP majority back in 2008, but 2 years of letting the terrorists operate with impunity is not worth it.
Yes, that is their plan; so, be ready !
I'm praying we hold the House.
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