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Zogby/WSJ Polls (Senate)
Wall Street Journal ^ | 10/19/06 | John Zogby

Posted on 10/19/2006 7:36:45 AM PDT by Ravi

Republicans edged ahead in one tightly contested senate race but while the latest Battleground States Poll puts the party on track to retain control of the chamber, several tight races leave the Election night outcome uncertain.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006; bullzogby; cookthebooks; elections; howtostealanelection; polls; zogby; zogbyism; zogbyspecialsauce
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1 posted on 10/19/2006 7:36:46 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

Not much. The GOP will retain House and Senate.


2 posted on 10/19/2006 7:37:58 AM PDT by pissant
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To: Ravi

Zogby's never worth much.


3 posted on 10/19/2006 7:39:57 AM PDT by SmithL (Where are we going? . . . . And why are we in this handbasket????)
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To: Ravi

Looks like Corker is opening some space between himself and Ford Jr.


4 posted on 10/19/2006 7:39:57 AM PDT by mainepatsfan
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To: Ravi

Does Zogby still send the long polls thru' email? I used to get them but haven't for ages. Are these results from phone polls or on-line ones?


5 posted on 10/19/2006 7:40:52 AM PDT by BonnieJ
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To: Ravi

I have to say, even though it's wrong, this is the closest poll overall I've seen to what I really think it happening. I do think Steele is slightly ahead, but this one is at least in the right range of DeWine and Corker and Kean and Blackwell. I think all four of them win. It will come down to three states: RI, MT, and PA. Because I think we'll win NJ and MD, if we hold two of those three, we gain a seat. If we hold all, we gain two.


6 posted on 10/19/2006 7:41:00 AM PDT by LS
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To: pissant

For those avoiding the click:

Zogby's numbers show the GOP losing only one seat and retaining control of the senate 54-44-2.

NJ now is in GOP camp.

Zogby then goes on about how you should ignore his numbers and see how the dems will actually win control-lol


7 posted on 10/19/2006 7:41:38 AM PDT by icwhatudo (The rino borg...is resistance futile?)
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To: SmithL

Actually, he's been TERRIBLE, except, for some reason, I think he's closer this year than most---still off toward the left, but better.


8 posted on 10/19/2006 7:42:17 AM PDT by LS
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To: Ravi

If anything, smarmy Zogby and his crappy skewed polls should "push" conservative and moderate voters to come out in force to vote to keep the rats out of power.

My biggest thrill in the last couple of years was watching the Senate Judiciary Committee rats (Kennedy, Leaky Leahy, Biden, Feingold, Chucky Cheese, and Turban Durbin) make complete asses of themselves in front of the nation. I don't think anything made the rats angrier than when Roberts and Alito were confirmed. HAH!

I am hoping that Bush will get at least one more SCOTUS pick before his term ends. Can you say "GLOAT"?


9 posted on 10/19/2006 7:43:21 AM PDT by goresalooza (Nurses Rock!)
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To: Ravi
OK. So now we trust Zogby?
10 posted on 10/19/2006 7:44:12 AM PDT by slowhand520
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To: Ravi

Zogby = DNC


11 posted on 10/19/2006 7:45:18 AM PDT by Niteranger68 (I gigged your peace frog.)
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To: icwhatudo
NJ now is in GOP camp

I wouldn't bet on it

12 posted on 10/19/2006 7:46:06 AM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: Clintonfatigued; AntiGuv; Torie; MikeA; fieldmarshaldj; JohnnyZ; GailA; mariabush; zbigreddogz; ...

Some Senate polls are looking good for us once. Regardless of what the polls say, get out and vote.


13 posted on 10/19/2006 7:46:08 AM PDT by Kuksool (Design your Own Polls. Go Vote and Take a Few Others With You)
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To: mainepatsfan
The left loves polls. They use them to make news, influence elections. I think it's about time to turn it around. Since according to the polls, the democrats have no shot of regaining the Senate, they should stay home on election day. Why bother to vote? Even if the left wins the House, it's a foregone conclusion that President Bush's and Vice-President Cheney's impeachment trial will end in acquittal. That's all the liberals want, that's their plan for the next two years. So give it up, call it quits democrats. It's all over for you.
14 posted on 10/19/2006 7:46:54 AM PDT by jimfrommaine
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To: slowhand520

Based on Zogbys numbers, if the GOP could pull 2 out of these 3 (Steele Dewine Santorum) they could actually increase seats in the senate.

Either the tide is starting to turn again, or the polsters have to start getting honst as the election approaches.


15 posted on 10/19/2006 7:47:24 AM PDT by icwhatudo (The rino borg...is resistance futile?)
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To: Ravi
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

16 posted on 10/19/2006 7:48:40 AM PDT by Slicksadick (Go out on a limb........Its where the fruit is.)
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To: Ravi
I heard that Zogby got in with the new lefty radio network that will emerge from the Air America ashes.

We the People, (The NEW Air America! - Zogby Signs On)

17 posted on 10/19/2006 7:49:31 AM PDT by b4its2late (I'm not insensitive, I just don't care.)
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To: Ravi

I think Zog's hedging his bets now...

I assume Santorum will not be able to overcome the Voter Fraud Factor, and massive Democrat fraud(ACORN) has already been uncovered in Missouri...

Montana isn't polled, and I think Michigan is takable...


18 posted on 10/19/2006 7:50:35 AM PDT by tcrlaf (VOTE DEM! You'll Look GREAT In A Burqa!)
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To: Ravi
When the libs say Republicans are "poised" to retain control, then this means Republicans will maintain FIRM control. I don't say the WSJ is liberal, but the pollster, one Zog, can be a bit skewed.... Doesn't really matter to me, though. I've STILL signed up for the
GOP 72-HOUR TASK FORCE!
so I can make sure the electable CONSERVATIVE party wins in November!

By the way, if you click on the link, you too can sign up for the
GOP 72-HOUR TASK FORCE!

19 posted on 10/19/2006 7:50:57 AM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (I am SO glad to no longer be associated with the party of "dependence on government"!)
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To: slowhand520
The scariest part of this is that its "Zogby Interactive". I don't know if the affiliation with the WSJ indicates an improvement in methodology.
Oddly enough, polling seems to be getting less accurate instead of better. I went back and looked at Real Clear Politics's collection of polls prior to the 04 Bush/Kerry race and almost all the polls were wrong, the spread was 0 to 6 point off and ALWAYS IN FAVOR OF KERRY. The average error was 2.5 towards Kerry. I realize this is within the margin of error for these polls, but how in the world could all of the error occurred in the same direction?
20 posted on 10/19/2006 7:52:37 AM PDT by don'tbedenied
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To: Puppage
"NJ now is in GOP camp"

No way. The New Jersey voter is an idiot. He/she will continue to elect crooks and then wonder why their state is an open septic tank.

21 posted on 10/19/2006 7:54:32 AM PDT by Redleg Duke (ˇSalga de los Estados Unidos de América, invasor!)
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To: Redleg Duke

I wasn't the one who said it, I happen to agree with you.


22 posted on 10/19/2006 7:56:25 AM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: Ravi

If you assume that Burns and Chafee are going to lose, their prediction now is actually an effective 52-48 split (which is what I'm guessing as my most likely outcome).

I'm still hoping Santorum can pull out his race. And I have a slim hope we can win in Maryland. That would put us at 54.

And if Burns actually wins based on simple republican turnout, we could possibly end up at 55, with the loss of Chafee AND DeWine, but the pickup of Steele and Keene.


23 posted on 10/19/2006 7:56:44 AM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: Ravi

I have a hard time believing that Rick Santorum is 8 points down in the polls after the last two debates. Casey Jr. is....I don't have an appropriate word to describe this guy.

This was not only shocking but it is very disheartening.


24 posted on 10/19/2006 7:57:29 AM PDT by no dems (I'll take a moral Mormon over a demonic Democrat or repugnant RINO anyday.)
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To: b4its2late

Is it me or did Zoby forget to include Rhode Island and Montana in his anlysis????


25 posted on 10/19/2006 7:58:53 AM PDT by Mike10542
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To: CharlesWayneCT

Zogby has Allen up by only 3 over the Wash. Post. The poll may match the DNC polling. IT would explain why the RATS are moving funds into the Wash. Post candidate.


26 posted on 10/19/2006 7:59:04 AM PDT by Kuksool (Design your Own Polls. Go Vote and Take a Few Others With You)
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To: jimfrommaine

The impeachment will end in aquittal anyway.

First, Leiberman will not vote for Impeachment, and neither will Ben Nelson.

Second, you need 2/3rds majority in the senate for impeachment, and there is no way any republican (except maybe Chafee, who could be toast) would vote for it.

The real problem is 2 years of investigations sapping the strength of the war effort.


27 posted on 10/19/2006 7:59:34 AM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: Kuksool

I think the conventional wisdom has been to add 3 to 5 points to Zogby's Republican numbers. That would make this interesting indeed.

The only one I can speak on is that I believe that Corker IS now up on Ford here in Tennessee. It is mostly gut feeling and the last SurveyUSA poll.


28 posted on 10/19/2006 8:02:07 AM PDT by Ingtar (Prensa dos para el inglés)
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To: Kuksool

Apparently we in Virginia haven't done a good enough job recruiting people to participate in the Zogby online polls. I know the DailyKos people have put a LOT of effort online into this campaign, just check out what they have done to the Wikipedia entries, starting with adding the definition of "macaca" after Allen said it but before the Webb camp complained, so that it would look like it was a racial slur.


29 posted on 10/19/2006 8:02:18 AM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: Recovering_Democrat

What State will you be working?


30 posted on 10/19/2006 8:04:14 AM PDT by no dems (I'll take a moral Mormon over a demonic Democrat or repugnant RINO anyday.)
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To: LS
if we hold two of those three, we gain a seat. If we hold all, we gain two.

I can see it now. If Republicans increase their seats in the Senate and dont lose the House, the Dems will demand an investigation of Diebold. Only way Republicans could have won is if the fix was in. :-)

31 posted on 10/19/2006 8:04:40 AM PDT by Dave S
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To: Ravi

I would chalk up any contest that is within the margin of error to a Republican win due to the overpolling of Democrats for these efforts by the MSM to influence the elections. Pre-Clinton polls were used to guage how the public fealt about issues. Clintonian polls are used to influence public opinion.


32 posted on 10/19/2006 8:06:56 AM PDT by OrioleFan (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but DemocRATs believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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To: CharlesWayneCT
Someone actually believe "Landslide" Zogby ?
The same guy who has a new JV with a new Left wing radio show ? The same guy whose brother was a Kerry delegate at the DNC convention ?

Zogby is the DNC !
He intentionally splashed THE HEADLINE " LANDSLIDE" ON A HIS WEBSITE TO THROW THE ELECTION TO KERRY !!!
33 posted on 10/19/2006 8:07:55 AM PDT by BurtSB (the price of freedom is eternal vigilance)
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To: CharlesWayneCT

Right. But I believe that a large portion of the liberal base believes that this is finally the chance to get Bush. They hate him, and they will demand that he's impeached if Nancy Pelosi becomes Speaker. Or else all their money disappears in 2008. Anyway I'm tired of these lunatics, I want to crush their spirit. Their allies in the media have tried to depress republican turnout, now it's time to return the favor.


34 posted on 10/19/2006 8:08:25 AM PDT by jimfrommaine
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To: RedRover
Hey Red, could you come over here and read and analyze this for me? (spit) I am out of time this morning. ;*)
35 posted on 10/19/2006 8:09:11 AM PDT by Just A Nobody (NEVER AGAIN...Support our Troops! www.irey.com and www.vets4irey.com - Now more than Ever!)
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To: Puppage

I agree it's overstatement to say NJ is now in the GOP camp, but Kean has a real shot at winning this. It's going to be a squeaker either way.


36 posted on 10/19/2006 8:10:41 AM PDT by MikeA (Foley has resigned. Bin Laden has not. That's what's at stake in this election, not some pervert.)
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To: Ravi
The key to Zogby and the other pollsters is what is the final poll showing on the eve of the election...... Until then they jack the numbers as they see fit or towards some goal by a paid entity..... Once the undecideds fall into place then it becomes a much clearer picture.
37 posted on 10/19/2006 8:10:48 AM PDT by deport (The Governor, The Foghorn, The Dingaling, The Joker, some other fellar...... The Governor Wins)
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To: no dems

Bob Casey during the last Debate looked like a Blithering Idiot of DNC talking points.

The problem was Rick was up against drive by media moderators as they set the agenda in that debate.

Rick still kicked butt even on Bobs own turf with comfort issues and softballs thrown Bob Casey's way.


38 posted on 10/19/2006 8:13:24 AM PDT by april15Bendovr
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To: CharlesWayneCT

Actually, you need 2/3 in the senate for conviction and removal. Impeachment occurs in the house and only needs a majority vote.


39 posted on 10/19/2006 8:13:38 AM PDT by almcbean
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To: mainepatsfan
Looks like Corker is opening some space between himself and Ford Jr.

Ignore the polls and look at how Ford is campaigning. He's trying to protray himself as a Reagan conservative in his TV commercials. It's laughable! He's loosing and loosing big time and he knows it. The dude is burnt toast. My guess is Ford's internal polling shows Corker with a double digit lead, hence his references to all things Reagan. Ford may have been elected to the House in a rabid Demoncrat district in Memphis, but Tennessee as a whole will never elect Ford to the Senate. Take that one to the bank.

40 posted on 10/19/2006 8:14:46 AM PDT by Thermalseeker
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To: MikeA

I would love to see Steele and Kean win. But if they force the DNC to throw money into those races, it should mean less funds for Missouri, Tennesee and Virginia.


41 posted on 10/19/2006 8:17:33 AM PDT by jimfrommaine
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To: Thermalseeker

The MSM really seemed to pushing Ford Jr. a few weeks ago but I haven't seen many stories on him lately. I guess they see the writing on the wall in Tennessee.


42 posted on 10/19/2006 8:21:33 AM PDT by mainepatsfan
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To: CharlesWayneCT


First, Leiberman will not vote for Impeachment, and neither will Ben Nelson.

Second, you need 2/3rds majority in the senate for impeachment, and there is no way any republican (except maybe Chafee, who could be toast) would vote for it.

The real problem is 2 years of investigations sapping the strength of the war effort.


Lieberman and/or Nelson have nothing to do with "impeachment". Impeachment is done in the House. The Senate conducts the trial. Which is why Clinton WAS impeached, but not convicted.


43 posted on 10/19/2006 8:21:35 AM PDT by DJnVa
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To: jimfrommaine
Yup. As long as the Dems are spending money in places they didn't think they needed to they are serving a purpose.
44 posted on 10/19/2006 8:22:43 AM PDT by mainepatsfan
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To: Kuksool

Those aren't polls, they're by "Zogby Interactive," so they are self-selective Internet surveys. They are about as unscientific as an online poll on CNN.com, and should be ignored.

That being said, I agree with you that it will all come down to turnout.


45 posted on 10/19/2006 8:24:57 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (http://auh2orepublican.blogspot.com/)
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To: Ravi

Keep in mind that Zogby will be a host on the new liberal talk network--successor to Err America.


46 posted on 10/19/2006 8:25:22 AM PDT by Antoninus (Ruin a Democrat's day...help re-elect Rick Santorum.)
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To: jimfrommaine

Let's hope they can force some of the DNC's very limited resources into defending Maryland and New Jersey. That would be so awesome. I think Steele has a real shot at it.


47 posted on 10/19/2006 8:28:44 AM PDT by MikeA (Foley has resigned. Bin Laden has not. That's what's at stake in this election, not some pervert.)
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To: LS
Although Zogby's polls may not be valid, they are reliable. In the last midterm election Zogby underestimated the Republican vote from 8-16%! ( http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1282/is_22_56/ai_n13659409 )

"In Minnesota, Zogby predicted Democrat Walter Mondale over Republican Norm Coleman by 6 points; Coleman won by 3. In Colorado, Zogby picked Democrat Ted Strickland over GOP incumbent Wayne Allard by 5; Allard won by 5. In Georgia, Zogby picked Democrat Max Cleland over Republican Saxby Chambliss by 2; Chambliss won by 7. In Texas, Zogby's final poll had Republican John Cornyn over Democrat Ron Kirk by 4 points; Cornyn won by 12. Zogby's final poll in the Florida gubernatorial race had Jeb Bush winning by 15, but only three weeks earlier he had Bush winning by only 3. Bush won by 13 points."

So add at least 8% to the Republican to get a better idea of where the final results will be. Blackwell right now is within the MOE!

Zogby's poll is an interactive Internet poll (I am a regular respondent-- probably because I represent an unusual demographic)-- but, in this case, his is closer to the reality that you and I are seeing because the bias from this poll (Internet users) is less than the bias from phone polls (i.e. Internet users more closely resemble actual midterm voters).

Remember, the drop off of voter turnout for off-year general elections in Ohio in the last 28 years is on average 15.46% (min= 10.12%; max= 23.96%; median= 15.64%). Guess which voters represent those that don't vote in off-year elections? The less-politically engaged-- "moderates" and young voters (i.e. answer polls but don't actually vote)-- who are also the more liberal. Strickland and the legacy Media are counting on these demographics to carry him to a win; Blackwell isn't. That's why Republican turnout is so important for a Blackwell upset, which I think is very likely.

Strickland's support peaked weeks ago as did Blackwell's negatives. The pro-Strickland Republicans and Bush/Taft voters are moving to undecided and the previous non-Democrat undecideds are breaking for Blackwell! That's the momentum that was starting to reveal itself in Aug. That’s where this election is going to be won or lost–- the votes of Republicans, not Independents and Democrats.

By my back of the envelope calculations, if KB gets >77% of previous Taft-- that's 90% of conservatives and 40% of "moderates", he probably wins. As of the beginning to middle of this month, based on the latest Ohio Poll, I calculated the race to be Strickland ahead by 6.2% (+/-4.5). I think that is probably closer to reality than any poll we are going to see, but I can't get it confirmed by "insiders". Maybe you can.

48 posted on 10/19/2006 8:30:31 AM PDT by Dr. Free Market (Do the right thing, and let the chips fall where they may.)
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To: MikeA

In the same time period, Rasmussen shows a 15 point lead for Cantwell but Zogby only 7. Also Rasmussen only shows a 5 point lead for Crist but every other poll that I've seen has him up double digits. I think Ras may be off this year. IMO.


49 posted on 10/19/2006 8:31:48 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: no dems

""I have a hard time believing that Rick Santorum is 8 points down in the polls after the last two debates. ""

hmmmm..in 1992 I had a hard time believing a sitting incumbent President with a record far better than most other incumbents was down 5 points to a draft dodging military hating philandering pot smoker...but here we are.


50 posted on 10/19/2006 8:33:11 AM PDT by DontBelieveAugPolls
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