Skip to comments.Zogby/WSJ Polls (Senate)
Posted on 10/19/2006 7:36:45 AM PDT by Ravi
Republicans edged ahead in one tightly contested senate race but while the latest Battleground States Poll puts the party on track to retain control of the chamber, several tight races leave the Election night outcome uncertain.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Not much. The GOP will retain House and Senate.
Zogby's never worth much.
Looks like Corker is opening some space between himself and Ford Jr.
Does Zogby still send the long polls thru' email? I used to get them but haven't for ages. Are these results from phone polls or on-line ones?
I have to say, even though it's wrong, this is the closest poll overall I've seen to what I really think it happening. I do think Steele is slightly ahead, but this one is at least in the right range of DeWine and Corker and Kean and Blackwell. I think all four of them win. It will come down to three states: RI, MT, and PA. Because I think we'll win NJ and MD, if we hold two of those three, we gain a seat. If we hold all, we gain two.
For those avoiding the click:
Zogby's numbers show the GOP losing only one seat and retaining control of the senate 54-44-2.
NJ now is in GOP camp.
Zogby then goes on about how you should ignore his numbers and see how the dems will actually win control-lol
Actually, he's been TERRIBLE, except, for some reason, I think he's closer this year than most---still off toward the left, but better.
If anything, smarmy Zogby and his crappy skewed polls should "push" conservative and moderate voters to come out in force to vote to keep the rats out of power.
My biggest thrill in the last couple of years was watching the Senate Judiciary Committee rats (Kennedy, Leaky Leahy, Biden, Feingold, Chucky Cheese, and Turban Durbin) make complete asses of themselves in front of the nation. I don't think anything made the rats angrier than when Roberts and Alito were confirmed. HAH!
I am hoping that Bush will get at least one more SCOTUS pick before his term ends. Can you say "GLOAT"?
Zogby = DNC
I wouldn't bet on it
Some Senate polls are looking good for us once. Regardless of what the polls say, get out and vote.
Based on Zogbys numbers, if the GOP could pull 2 out of these 3 (Steele Dewine Santorum) they could actually increase seats in the senate.
Either the tide is starting to turn again, or the polsters have to start getting honst as the election approaches.
I think Zog's hedging his bets now...
I assume Santorum will not be able to overcome the Voter Fraud Factor, and massive Democrat fraud(ACORN) has already been uncovered in Missouri...
Montana isn't polled, and I think Michigan is takable...
By the way, if you click on the link, you too can sign up for the
GOP 72-HOUR TASK FORCE!
No way. The New Jersey voter is an idiot. He/she will continue to elect crooks and then wonder why their state is an open septic tank.
I wasn't the one who said it, I happen to agree with you.
If you assume that Burns and Chafee are going to lose, their prediction now is actually an effective 52-48 split (which is what I'm guessing as my most likely outcome).
I'm still hoping Santorum can pull out his race. And I have a slim hope we can win in Maryland. That would put us at 54.
And if Burns actually wins based on simple republican turnout, we could possibly end up at 55, with the loss of Chafee AND DeWine, but the pickup of Steele and Keene.
I have a hard time believing that Rick Santorum is 8 points down in the polls after the last two debates. Casey Jr. is....I don't have an appropriate word to describe this guy.
This was not only shocking but it is very disheartening.
Is it me or did Zoby forget to include Rhode Island and Montana in his anlysis????
Zogby has Allen up by only 3 over the Wash. Post. The poll may match the DNC polling. IT would explain why the RATS are moving funds into the Wash. Post candidate.
The impeachment will end in aquittal anyway.
First, Leiberman will not vote for Impeachment, and neither will Ben Nelson.
Second, you need 2/3rds majority in the senate for impeachment, and there is no way any republican (except maybe Chafee, who could be toast) would vote for it.
The real problem is 2 years of investigations sapping the strength of the war effort.
I think the conventional wisdom has been to add 3 to 5 points to Zogby's Republican numbers. That would make this interesting indeed.
The only one I can speak on is that I believe that Corker IS now up on Ford here in Tennessee. It is mostly gut feeling and the last SurveyUSA poll.
Apparently we in Virginia haven't done a good enough job recruiting people to participate in the Zogby online polls. I know the DailyKos people have put a LOT of effort online into this campaign, just check out what they have done to the Wikipedia entries, starting with adding the definition of "macaca" after Allen said it but before the Webb camp complained, so that it would look like it was a racial slur.
What State will you be working?
I can see it now. If Republicans increase their seats in the Senate and dont lose the House, the Dems will demand an investigation of Diebold. Only way Republicans could have won is if the fix was in. :-)
I would chalk up any contest that is within the margin of error to a Republican win due to the overpolling of Democrats for these efforts by the MSM to influence the elections. Pre-Clinton polls were used to guage how the public fealt about issues. Clintonian polls are used to influence public opinion.
Right. But I believe that a large portion of the liberal base believes that this is finally the chance to get Bush. They hate him, and they will demand that he's impeached if Nancy Pelosi becomes Speaker. Or else all their money disappears in 2008. Anyway I'm tired of these lunatics, I want to crush their spirit. Their allies in the media have tried to depress republican turnout, now it's time to return the favor.
I agree it's overstatement to say NJ is now in the GOP camp, but Kean has a real shot at winning this. It's going to be a squeaker either way.
Bob Casey during the last Debate looked like a Blithering Idiot of DNC talking points.
The problem was Rick was up against drive by media moderators as they set the agenda in that debate.
Rick still kicked butt even on Bobs own turf with comfort issues and softballs thrown Bob Casey's way.
Actually, you need 2/3 in the senate for conviction and removal. Impeachment occurs in the house and only needs a majority vote.
Ignore the polls and look at how Ford is campaigning. He's trying to protray himself as a Reagan conservative in his TV commercials. It's laughable! He's loosing and loosing big time and he knows it. The dude is burnt toast. My guess is Ford's internal polling shows Corker with a double digit lead, hence his references to all things Reagan. Ford may have been elected to the House in a rabid Demoncrat district in Memphis, but Tennessee as a whole will never elect Ford to the Senate. Take that one to the bank.
I would love to see Steele and Kean win. But if they force the DNC to throw money into those races, it should mean less funds for Missouri, Tennesee and Virginia.
The MSM really seemed to pushing Ford Jr. a few weeks ago but I haven't seen many stories on him lately. I guess they see the writing on the wall in Tennessee.
Those aren't polls, they're by "Zogby Interactive," so they are self-selective Internet surveys. They are about as unscientific as an online poll on CNN.com, and should be ignored.
That being said, I agree with you that it will all come down to turnout.
Keep in mind that Zogby will be a host on the new liberal talk network--successor to Err America.
Let's hope they can force some of the DNC's very limited resources into defending Maryland and New Jersey. That would be so awesome. I think Steele has a real shot at it.
"In Minnesota, Zogby predicted Democrat Walter Mondale over Republican Norm Coleman by 6 points; Coleman won by 3. In Colorado, Zogby picked Democrat Ted Strickland over GOP incumbent Wayne Allard by 5; Allard won by 5. In Georgia, Zogby picked Democrat Max Cleland over Republican Saxby Chambliss by 2; Chambliss won by 7. In Texas, Zogby's final poll had Republican John Cornyn over Democrat Ron Kirk by 4 points; Cornyn won by 12. Zogby's final poll in the Florida gubernatorial race had Jeb Bush winning by 15, but only three weeks earlier he had Bush winning by only 3. Bush won by 13 points."
So add at least 8% to the Republican to get a better idea of where the final results will be. Blackwell right now is within the MOE!
Zogby's poll is an interactive Internet poll (I am a regular respondent-- probably because I represent an unusual demographic)-- but, in this case, his is closer to the reality that you and I are seeing because the bias from this poll (Internet users) is less than the bias from phone polls (i.e. Internet users more closely resemble actual midterm voters).
Remember, the drop off of voter turnout for off-year general elections in Ohio in the last 28 years is on average 15.46% (min= 10.12%; max= 23.96%; median= 15.64%). Guess which voters represent those that don't vote in off-year elections? The less-politically engaged-- "moderates" and young voters (i.e. answer polls but don't actually vote)-- who are also the more liberal. Strickland and the legacy Media are counting on these demographics to carry him to a win; Blackwell isn't. That's why Republican turnout is so important for a Blackwell upset, which I think is very likely.
Strickland's support peaked weeks ago as did Blackwell's negatives. The pro-Strickland Republicans and Bush/Taft voters are moving to undecided and the previous non-Democrat undecideds are breaking for Blackwell! That's the momentum that was starting to reveal itself in Aug. Thats where this election is going to be won or lost- the votes of Republicans, not Independents and Democrats.
By my back of the envelope calculations, if KB gets >77% of previous Taft-- that's 90% of conservatives and 40% of "moderates", he probably wins. As of the beginning to middle of this month, based on the latest Ohio Poll, I calculated the race to be Strickland ahead by 6.2% (+/-4.5). I think that is probably closer to reality than any poll we are going to see, but I can't get it confirmed by "insiders". Maybe you can.
In the same time period, Rasmussen shows a 15 point lead for Cantwell but Zogby only 7. Also Rasmussen only shows a 5 point lead for Crist but every other poll that I've seen has him up double digits. I think Ras may be off this year. IMO.
""I have a hard time believing that Rick Santorum is 8 points down in the polls after the last two debates. ""
hmmmm..in 1992 I had a hard time believing a sitting incumbent President with a record far better than most other incumbents was down 5 points to a draft dodging military hating philandering pot smoker...but here we are.