Posted on 10/19/2006 6:58:42 PM PDT by seanrobins
"Let me guess you are a Demonrat and actually think there are more Democrats than Republicans in the general population."
Actually, it's a valid question.
While the samples should be 'balanced' to reflect the real political balance, it is hard to measure.
What we do know is that party affiliation was running about even GOP v Dem (35% each) in 2004. So a poll that shows 43% to 37% party affiliation is either skewed to the Dems by about 6% or reflects a real shift in party affiliation (not likely but possible).
Of course, it is a valid question. But, seemed to be based on the assumption that there are more Dems than Republicans. Unless, we know what percent of the population is Democrat vs Republican these polls are useless. I am assuming there is some growth in the Republican party based on the fact I used to vote Democrat, but I won't anymore and 4 of my friends have switched parties as well.
Hopefully, it will backfire on the RATS. Some of their most "intellectual party goers' may figure they don't need to get up to go vote since they are so far ahead of the Republicans. By the time they 'come to' it will be all over. LOL!
Thanks for voting "anyway" but I do think your vote has some effect since Arnold is doing so well and if we come out big, could get some good R's in the downticket...I believe the D's aren't at all excited about voting in CA. Arnold has a good get out the vote/Absentee Voting program working all over the state and it's encouraging. Out of thousands of phone calls, very positive responses and you could count the hang ups on one hand. VOTE< VOTE
Didn't all of the polls this late in '04 predict a overwhelming Kerry win? Didn't these same polls predict that the Democrats were going to take the House???
Thank you for this interesting read.
bttt
Of course, you do. Percentages come from numbers or voters queried. Would you argue that 116 is not 16% greater than 100? It means the same thing as 116% being 16% higher than 100%.
You can figure out the degree of oversampling from percentages just as well as from the raw numbers from whence the percentages are calculated.
The point is that looking at 43% as only 6% greater than 37% is an invalid way of determining oversampling.
If you count all the illegals, there probably ARE more DemRats.
Because it's none of their damn business! I have better things to do than answer some jerk on the phone.
I will be too but in KY-1 its a safe district... But I will be voting even if we have a snow storm (unlikely)
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