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Democrats Leading Many Pivotal Races
AP via myway.com ^ | 21 October 2006 | David Espo

Posted on 10/22/2006 5:17:58 PM PDT by YaYa123

WASHINGTON (AP) - Democrats hold solid leads for four of the six Republican seats they need to capture the Senate and about 10 of 15 required to win the House, according to officials in both parties. Numerous additional races remain highly competitive.

After two weeks of adverse publicity linked to the Mark Foley scandal, public and private polling suggested partial recovery for some endangered Republican incumbents, and senior party officials made a concerted effort to project confidence.

"By many measures, there are strong indications of a right-of-center base that is engaged and committed," party chairman Ken Mehlman said Friday in a memo written for public consumption.

The assertion was a response to independent polls that show disapproval of President Bush's policies, including on the Iraq war, and discontent with Congress have made Democrats more eager to vote on Nov. 7 than Republicans.

(Excerpt) Read more at apnews.myway.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006; election; elections; house; poll; polls; predictions; senate
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Oh dear, I hate bad news, but: This is AP, alledgedly well sourced by both sides, Espo has put his name on it, and with very few CYA qualifiers. I know things are looking up in some of the key races, and things can always change but: I'm posting this so we know what the other side is thinking. Their over-confidence is in our favor.
1 posted on 10/22/2006 5:17:59 PM PDT by YaYa123
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To: YaYa123

I'm going with Drudge's headlines this weekend where GOP will keep both houses. Just not buying this incessant gloom folks especially with funding raising looking good.


2 posted on 10/22/2006 5:20:24 PM PDT by conservativepoet
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To: YaYa123
Karl Rove has the information YaYa, don't fall for the lamestream media, especially now, there's no blue tidalwave coming. The AP is simply doing it's duty and pimping the DNC talking points. Since the plan was to depress and suppress the R vote, they have to continue the game. We just need to vote.
3 posted on 10/22/2006 5:24:05 PM PDT by ReaganRevolution (Broken Glass Republicans Unite!)
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To: YaYa123

Let's hope that the polls are as phony as they were in '04. I especially loved that Bob Shrum moment when he sia to Ketchup Boy: "Let me be the first to call you Mr. President." Still cracks me up!


4 posted on 10/22/2006 5:24:12 PM PDT by Chi-townChief
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To: YaYa123
Consider the source is AP. They're working their tails off to suppress the GOP vote.

Ignore the bastards, and VOTE!

Vote early, and vote often!

5 posted on 10/22/2006 5:24:57 PM PDT by BigSkyFreeper (Karl Rove you magnificent bastard!)
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To: Chi-townChief
I especially loved that Bob Shrum moment when he sia to Ketchup Boy: "Let me be the first to call you Mr. President." Still cracks me up!

It still makes me laugh too, what a clown.

6 posted on 10/22/2006 5:25:23 PM PDT by ReaganRevolution (Broken Glass Republicans Unite!)
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To: YaYa123

I read the article. It has only unnamed sources for the "Republicans are doomed" scenario. It also says Tennessee and Virginia are two of the Senate seats going Dem. I don't think so. More AP wishful thinking.


7 posted on 10/22/2006 5:25:24 PM PDT by LadyNavyVet
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To: LadyNavyVet
It also says Tennessee and Virginia are two of the Senate seats going Dem.

Good grief. That's just pathetic.

8 posted on 10/22/2006 5:26:41 PM PDT by ReaganRevolution (Broken Glass Republicans Unite!)
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To: BigSkyFreeper

YES!!!!!!!


9 posted on 10/22/2006 5:26:52 PM PDT by T Lady (The Mainstream Media: Public Enemy #1)
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To: conservativepoet

Up until 5 minutes before the polls open, the MSM will have the Rats winning everything!
Today the the feature story on the Senate race in largest paper in Montana said that the RNC wasn`t going to waste anymore money in the state, Sen Burns was toast. No direct quotes, of course. Nothing, not a word, on Burns pulling even in the polls. Lotsa people in the MSM better be looking for sales for egg-on-the-face remover.


10 posted on 10/22/2006 5:28:05 PM PDT by bybybill (`IF TH E RATS WIN, WE LOSE)
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To: YaYa123

YaYa....easy...don't fall for it. We will retain both houses.


11 posted on 10/22/2006 5:28:17 PM PDT by Dog
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To: LadyNavyVet

The big media is usually a week behind the news. People in the know have been saying that things began turning around for the GOP last week, and this has been backed up by internal and public polling. Yet, the media continues to lazily write last week's story.

They write about TN being in great danger, as if Harold Jr's stunt never occurred.


12 posted on 10/22/2006 5:29:07 PM PDT by Omega Man II
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To: YaYa123

I'm doing everything I can with limited time and resources here in IL-6, one of the key House races (Duckworth vs. Roskam). This should be a safe seat (Hyde's old seat), but Roskam is barely ahead, if ahead at all.

I hope I can exhaust myself in the 72-hour push, pending an agreeable schedule at work.

I am really getting discouraged, however, at how hard it is right now. Lots of people are "coming home," so to speak; but there are a stomach-sickening number of people who are going to make this election much more painful than it needs to be.

I know the polls are oversampling Democrats, and I know that everyone at FR thinks that a ceaseless, brutal, calculated, and organized MSM attempt to sway this election will only totally backfire and help elect Republicans. But let me tell you, it's harder right now than many people want to admit.

I am getting really worried about Corker in TN, Talent in MO, and to a smaller degree George "constantly apologize and hope to run out the clock" Allen in VA. Burns seems to be edging closer in MT, and GOTV is early in DeWine's favor - also, Chafee is more popular in RI than many Freepers believe. But I am beginning to fear for the first time that the Dems just might take the Senate, and probably have the House all but sown up.

I'm going to work my butt off as often as I am able. But let me tell you - on the ground, it's a lot harder than many people want to admit right now.

I need some cheering up after this weekend's trauma.....


13 posted on 10/22/2006 5:29:57 PM PDT by TitansAFC ("Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead.")
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To: YaYa123
Oh dear, I hate bad news, but: This is AP, alledgedly well sourced by both sides, Espo has put his name on it, and with very few CYA qualifiers.

Yeah this is AP, and if you don't know by now they are pro-democrat, I have a bridge to sell you.

14 posted on 10/22/2006 5:31:43 PM PDT by Dane ("Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" Ronald Reagan, 1987)
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To: YaYa123

this story came out late Saturday morning on the AP and was covered by the lib-media...they are doing all they can to keep it front page news almost 36-hours later...


15 posted on 10/22/2006 5:31:52 PM PDT by God luvs America (When the silent majority speaks the earth trembles!)
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To: LadyNavyVet
I read the article. It has only unnamed sources for the "Republicans are doomed" scenario. It also says Tennessee and Virginia are two of the Senate seats going Dem. I don't think so. More AP wishful thinking.

You're absolutely right. TN has been one of those states that has been "too close to call" for a long time, and VA has been Allen's for weeks now. The "macaca" business with Allen only affected him for one or two news cycles and quickly died out.

Meanwhile there has been momentum shifts toward the GOP as of late in Montana, Oregon and New Jersey.

This election won't be won on Foleygate or any other scandal. This election will be won on national security issues, which includes the WOT and illegal immigration. Two issues the Democrats find themselves on the wrong side of.

16 posted on 10/22/2006 5:31:56 PM PDT by BigSkyFreeper (Karl Rove you magnificent bastard!)
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To: YaYa123

look what they actually say, not what is in the headline. If I was writing the headline from the article, it would be something like "dems don't have enough seats to win either house" Or "currently, republicans hold both houses by a narrow margin" I guess a mention of how unusual it is for the majority party to not lose seats in midterms is out of the question though.


17 posted on 10/22/2006 5:32:54 PM PDT by jdub
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To: YaYa123

18 posted on 10/22/2006 5:33:28 PM PDT by Petronski (CNN is an insidiously treasonous, enemy propaganda organ.)
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To: Chi-townChief
I especially loved that Bob Shrum moment when he sia to Ketchup Boy: "Let me be the first to call you Mr. President."

Well, Shrum must have some credibility, since Kerry still believes him!

19 posted on 10/22/2006 5:34:23 PM PDT by Fresh Wind (Democrats are guilty of whatever they scream the loudest about.)
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To: YaYa123

I have posed this question and answer to all my democrat friends..If Osama, Saddam, and each terrorist would be given a chance to vote in the upcoming American election; which party would they vote for and why would you consider making the same mistake...they think about it!


20 posted on 10/22/2006 5:34:26 PM PDT by terycarl (G)
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To: BigSkyFreeper

Exactly!! This is the media, doing its partisan best to make their desired outcome a real outcome by making it the perception. DO NOT FALL FOR THIS!!! They think we are all stupid. They do not understand Republicans, especially not conservatives. We are a different species to them. Just go out and vote. They cannot win if we do not falter.


21 posted on 10/22/2006 5:36:41 PM PDT by fschmieg
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To: YaYa123
I stay with my Labor Day predictions, that the Republicans will hold both the Senate and the House. My marker was for Rep's down two in the Senate, and seven in the House.

Keep in mind that every loss of a Democrat seat in either House means they must gain two others elsewhere to gain seats. Ignorant pundits keep pointing to the Gingrich landslide in the House in 1994. That was the ONLY time in the history of the nation that one party made all the gains, and the other party suffered all of the losses. That was the ONLY instance that the two-for-one logic of making up for losses, did not apply.

Just using the numbers as presented in this AP article, it is good news for control of both Houses. In the Senate, a win in either New Jersey (Kean) or Maryland (Steele) will guarantee the Republicans remain in control.

In the House, this article notes that there are several races where Rep's are now leading in efforts to take Dem seats. If the Rep's take just two of those, and all the other races go as presently presented, the Dem's gain only eight seats in the House.

I am not saying that this is in the bag, and there isn't hard work to be done. It is not, and there is. What I am saying is that reality is setting in, and the results are probably that Pelosi will NOT be Speaker of the House, nor Reid (the million-dollar man) be Majority Leader in the Senate.

Congressman Billybob

Latest article: "Recess at Salisbury State"

Please see my most recent new statement on running for Congress, here.

22 posted on 10/22/2006 5:37:16 PM PDT by Congressman Billybob (Have a look-see. Please get involved.)
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To: TitansAFC

What the heck is your problem!! Stop it!!


23 posted on 10/22/2006 5:39:01 PM PDT by fschmieg
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To: fschmieg
Exactly!! This is the media, doing its partisan best to make their desired outcome a real outcome by making it the perception. DO NOT FALL FOR THIS!!! They think we are all stupid. They do not understand Republicans, especially not conservatives. We are a different species to them. Just go out and vote. They cannot win if we do not falter.

Excellent reply and also p!ss off the liberal media and vote GOP on November 7th to make them cry in their Starbucks coffee on November 8th.

24 posted on 10/22/2006 5:39:32 PM PDT by Dane ("Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" Ronald Reagan, 1987)
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To: BigSkyFreeper
Love your sentiments.

Exactly right!

25 posted on 10/22/2006 5:39:47 PM PDT by Northern Yankee ( Stay The Course!)
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To: YaYa123
It's what this story doesn't say that is important. With only four of the six Senate seats needed, and only ten of the 15 House seats needed,

the Democrats do NOT take control of either house.


26 posted on 10/22/2006 5:45:48 PM PDT by Hoodat ( ETERNITY - Smoking, or Non-smoking?)
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To: TitansAFC
Your problem is that you've been sucked in by the left winged media. The left winged media wants you to be down in the dumps. Take a look at any race in this country, and I've been watching my fair share of debates these last couple months. Every single Democrat is running on emotion. They have no issues from which to draw from, just pure emotion, all based on 6 years of Bush hatred, and months of goofy scandals.
27 posted on 10/22/2006 5:46:15 PM PDT by BigSkyFreeper (Karl Rove you magnificent bastard!)
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To: TitansAFC

Your # 13.

You are really on one of the front lines in this war. thanks so much for your report on what it's like. And thanks for all you do.


28 posted on 10/22/2006 5:47:17 PM PDT by YaYa123
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To: ReaganRevolution
re: Since the plan was to depress and suppress the R vote, they have to continue the game. We just need to vote.)))

I also wonder if this isn't a preemptive strategy to provide credibility to the inevitiable "we wuz robbed!"

They sounded like this in 2004, too, then started up with the accusations of 'foul' shortly after they lost. First, claim that they were winning--and when they lose, claim they were cheated.

29 posted on 10/22/2006 5:49:51 PM PDT by Mamzelle
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To: TitansAFC

Great post. I think many on here are too quick to dismiss some of these omens? Will we lose? Maybe. Maybe not but this is going to be a very tight election. The only way we win is by outworking them on the ground in the last two weeks like we did in 2000 and in 2004.


30 posted on 10/22/2006 5:50:06 PM PDT by SmoothTalker
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To: YaYa123; All

This article is designed to make you stay home. They want you to think it's over and we might as well not bother to vote.

PHOOEY ON THAT NOISE! IT'S NOT OVER TILL THE FAT LADY SINGS - and anyway - the silent majority hasn't shown up to vote and we sure as hell don't participate in any polls.

Aside from that .. the dems are weighting their polls by 16% dems - totally UNREALISTIC - just like everything else they do. If they need to use 16% more dems - then we're winning most of the elections and they are lying through their teeth.

To me .. this is actually good news .. I think it's just another ploy from the media. Please .. let's not be stupid and buy into it.


31 posted on 10/22/2006 5:50:53 PM PDT by CyberAnt (Drive-By Media: Fake news, fake documents, fake polls)
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To: Mamzelle
also wonder if this isn't a preemptive strategy to provide credibility to the inevitiable "we wuz robbed!"

Oh yeah, it's part of it too. They will never ever admit that the american people have rejected them and their ideas. It will always be a stolen election mantra.

32 posted on 10/22/2006 5:59:09 PM PDT by ReaganRevolution (Broken Glass Republicans Unite!)
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To: BigSkyFreeper
Dude,

I'm not getting sucked in by the left-wing media. I actually try calculating the polls with even turnout and try it from there, to compensate for what I think is purposeful oversampling of Democrats.

I'm telling you my anecdotal evidence. I live in Henry Hyde's district, IL-6. Peter Roskam is a popular Republican who has served the sixth district for some time now and deserves the promotion. Tammy Duckworth (Democrat) isn't even from the district and was propped here by the national Dems because she served in Iraq and lost limbs in the war.

It should be cake - Duckworth did poorly in the debates, comes off as rude in person, is clearly underprepared, and is outfunded by Roskam. The district has been safe for the GOP (relatively speaking) for some time now, and Duckworth disrespected a lot of mayors in the district by regularly skipping their debates and not even sending notice that she wouldn't show up.

Depite all of that - ALL of that which should add up to an easy Roskam victory, even the Roskam campaign is calling the race a "dead heat."

I'm telling you, BigSkyFreeper, it's rough. I can count the number of women in the targeted "swing" ground game who are going to vote Roskam on two hands (anecdotal evidence). The turnout in the district is usually 51% women. I go down streets where they had us posting Bush signs two years ago and they are saturated - SATURATED - with Tammy Duckworth signs.

The fact that this race is a dead heat with two weeks left - before the last barrages of "October Surprises" which will be bombed in the last 15 days - is frightenting. And I'm telling you, the ground game is rough.

The only true positive here is that Tammy Duckworth has no roots in the district, and has basically relied on automated phone banks and telemarketing. In other words, she doesn't have the same ground game as Peter Roskam.

But I'm telling you, even beyond the biased polls, I'm worried.

Anyhow, any more good news on Conrad Burns since the last Rasmussen poll? I could use some cheering up after hearing all of the lame excuses for not voting Roskam this weekend.....
33 posted on 10/22/2006 6:04:26 PM PDT by TitansAFC ("Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead.")
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To: YaYa123

"WASHINGTON (AP) - Democrats hold solid leads for four of the six Republican seats they need to capture the Senate and about 10 of 15 required to win the House, according to officials in both parties. Numerous additional races remain highly competitive."

So everything being equal, the Democrats are not in fear of losing anything.

OK, Dems pick up four in Senate and ten in house. Let's not have the election. The Republicans still hold both houses. Oh, I get it. It's a moral victory.


34 posted on 10/22/2006 6:19:05 PM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (Murtha is even cutting and running from a debate.)
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To: YaYa123
Notice how they bury the real news: "private polling suggested partial recovery for some endangered Republican incumbents, and senior party officials made a concerted effort to project confidence."

Translation: The GOP is actually back ahead in most of these races and will be ahead in all of them by election day.

35 posted on 10/22/2006 6:20:20 PM PDT by LS
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To: TitansAFC
Corker is safe. Talent is safe, and Allen is safe. Kean and Steele will win. Burns and Chafee have pulled to within 2-3 in their races. Only Santorum now is outside MOE, but moving up.

In the House races, we are moving ahead in most of the contested races---the three in IN, Reyonlds in NY is safe, and Musgrove in CO is safe. Carson (D-IN, incumbent) trails by 4 now; and both GA Dems are in trouble (Barrow, & forget the other guy). Bean will lose in IL. That only leaves us with 7 seats really to worry about, while we'll gain 2-3, maybe 4-5.

After factoring in turnout, we'll gain at least a seat in each house.

36 posted on 10/22/2006 6:23:41 PM PDT by LS
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To: TitansAFC
Burns was only down 3 with the last poll, so use the LS rule and he's tied. (I understand that the LS rule has to be whittled down the closer we get to the election because the pollsters will try to get a little more accurate so they will come within the margin of error, and thus can claim accuracty on election day.)

I'm also on the ground in OH, and while DeWine is facing a tougher test than he should, all of our polls are showing the GOP "coming home" here in the last two weeks. I think mainly they just didn't want to be bothered earlier.

37 posted on 10/22/2006 6:27:03 PM PDT by LS
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To: TitansAFC

Corker was up 7 points in the latest Zogby poll, and that was before Junior, panicked by the disappointing poll numbers, decided to committ political suicide by crashing Corker's Press Conferance on Ethics in Government. Junior will be lucky, after his petulant debacle, to be down by only 7.


38 posted on 10/22/2006 6:38:26 PM PDT by AdvisorB
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To: LS

Bear in mind, my friends, that these polls may be designed to extract one more contribution to pay for more advertising. The media is not a disinterested party.


39 posted on 10/22/2006 6:38:45 PM PDT by ClaireSolt (Have you have gotten mixed up in a mish-masher?)
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To: Mr.Smorch

Hope you're right my friend.

;-)


40 posted on 10/22/2006 6:39:41 PM PDT by TitansAFC ("Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead.")
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To: YaYa123
GOP 72-HOUR TASK FORCE
CLICK HERE & SIGN UP TODAY!!

41 posted on 10/22/2006 6:40:27 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (I am SO glad to no longer be associated with the party of "dependence on government"!)
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To: ReaganRevolution
"Karl Rove has the information....."


ROOOOOOOVE!!!

42 posted on 10/22/2006 6:43:04 PM PDT by wolf24 ("It's always easy to rally the stupid.")
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To: TitansAFC

Continue to work hard. Turnout will be the determining factor.


43 posted on 10/22/2006 6:45:21 PM PDT by Bombard
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To: YaYa123

AP = Al queda Press


44 posted on 10/22/2006 6:47:08 PM PDT by RasterMaster (Winning Islamic hearts and minds.........one bullet at a time!)
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To: TitansAFC
I am getting really worried about Corker in TN, Talent in MO, and to a smaller degree George "constantly apologize and hope to run out the clock" Allen in VA. Burns seems to be edging closer in MT, and GOTV is early in DeWine's favor - also, Chafee is more popular in RI than many Freepers believe. But I am beginning to fear for the first time that the Dems just might take the Senate, and probably have the House all but sown up.

I wouldn't worry about Allen. There hasn't been a single independent poll that has showed Webb ahead. I think Corker's chances are looking better. MO is going to be tough, but I still have hope.

Other than that I agree with you that things do not look very good. The optimism around here is excessive, and the insistence that the GOP will pick up seats is delusional.

45 posted on 10/22/2006 6:50:58 PM PDT by freespirited (The MSM is the root of all evil.)
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To: YaYa123
Democrats Leading Many Pivotal Races

Notice that they do not say exactly which ones? They are reaching.

46 posted on 10/22/2006 6:50:58 PM PDT by ARealMothersSonForever (We shall never forget the atrocities of September 11, 2001.)
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To: TitansAFC

I think Junior committed a major gaffe. I understand it was on all the local news channels in Tennessee this weekend. It was a stupid blunder on Junior's part, but if Zogby has a RAT down by 7, I suppose it's panic time if you're a rat candidate. One can only conclude that a whole bunch of undecideds fell of the fence and into Corker's lap as a direct result of Junior's latest fiasco.

I'm not saying it's a done deal, but it does look a lot better for Corker, than it did say a week or ten days ago.


47 posted on 10/22/2006 6:53:40 PM PDT by AdvisorB
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To: YaYa123

The AP, on the morning of 8 Nov will be reporting the elections as stolen by the victorious Republican Party, because the poll that matters, the official poll, doesn't match the exit polls.

Republicans need to stock up on beer and popcorn for the Media circus coming to town on 8 Nov.


48 posted on 10/22/2006 7:07:38 PM PDT by F.J. Mitchell ( I predict a victory for Republicans that will make Dims remember 1994 as a very good year for them.)
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To: YaYa123

I doubt that Karl Rove or Ken Mehlman spoke to crAP. These are the two most important strategist in the Republican Party and they know exactly what is going much more than any other Republican pundit or strategist crAP can access. They know that we are not going to lose more than 10 seats in the House and no more than three seats in the Senate, and hence we keep control of Congress.


49 posted on 10/22/2006 7:16:45 PM PDT by jveritas (Support The Commander in Chief in Times of War)
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To: TitansAFC
You are taking a licking here, but my own research is in line with what you are reporting.

The last few weeks have pulled even the closet Dems out and that is too bad because they don't usually vote.

Most Americans are not FReepers, they simply do not have the interest to sit down and work things through. The carpet-bombing by the MSM renders every day a difficult one for people who are watching what appears to be a meltdown in Iraq and in Congress. A certain level of exhaustion seems to be afflicting a number of ground-level Republican activists. The cut-and-run Conservatives are burning their own house down.

The only bright spot is the following story. I was at a dinner the other night sitting next to one of our state's leading Democratic pols, one of the state's leaders in the assembly. We were talking business (I was there as the token political scientist/academic.) I asked him who he thought would win the Dem nominee in 2008 and he said "Clinton." And then he paused and said: "and she will take all of us down with her."

That is the best I can do--we may hold Missouri, we will probably hold VA. I think TN is a long-shot. Ford is very very good.

The House is a mare's nest, but you have to really really believe to think we are going to hold it. I just don't see our ground war leaders having enough energy left to pull out the House seats.

McVey
50 posted on 10/22/2006 7:19:41 PM PDT by mcvey (Fight on. Do not give up. Ally with those you must. Defeat those you can. And fight on whatever.)
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