Skip to comments.Democrats Leading Many Pivotal Races
Posted on 10/22/2006 5:17:58 PM PDT by YaYa123
WASHINGTON (AP) - Democrats hold solid leads for four of the six Republican seats they need to capture the Senate and about 10 of 15 required to win the House, according to officials in both parties. Numerous additional races remain highly competitive.
After two weeks of adverse publicity linked to the Mark Foley scandal, public and private polling suggested partial recovery for some endangered Republican incumbents, and senior party officials made a concerted effort to project confidence.
"By many measures, there are strong indications of a right-of-center base that is engaged and committed," party chairman Ken Mehlman said Friday in a memo written for public consumption.
The assertion was a response to independent polls that show disapproval of President Bush's policies, including on the Iraq war, and discontent with Congress have made Democrats more eager to vote on Nov. 7 than Republicans.
(Excerpt) Read more at apnews.myway.com ...
I'm going with Drudge's headlines this weekend where GOP will keep both houses. Just not buying this incessant gloom folks especially with funding raising looking good.
Let's hope that the polls are as phony as they were in '04. I especially loved that Bob Shrum moment when he sia to Ketchup Boy: "Let me be the first to call you Mr. President." Still cracks me up!
Ignore the bastards, and VOTE!
Vote early, and vote often!
It still makes me laugh too, what a clown.
I read the article. It has only unnamed sources for the "Republicans are doomed" scenario. It also says Tennessee and Virginia are two of the Senate seats going Dem. I don't think so. More AP wishful thinking.
Good grief. That's just pathetic.
Up until 5 minutes before the polls open, the MSM will have the Rats winning everything!
Today the the feature story on the Senate race in largest paper in Montana said that the RNC wasn`t going to waste anymore money in the state, Sen Burns was toast. No direct quotes, of course. Nothing, not a word, on Burns pulling even in the polls. Lotsa people in the MSM better be looking for sales for egg-on-the-face remover.
YaYa....easy...don't fall for it. We will retain both houses.
The big media is usually a week behind the news. People in the know have been saying that things began turning around for the GOP last week, and this has been backed up by internal and public polling. Yet, the media continues to lazily write last week's story.
They write about TN being in great danger, as if Harold Jr's stunt never occurred.
I'm doing everything I can with limited time and resources here in IL-6, one of the key House races (Duckworth vs. Roskam). This should be a safe seat (Hyde's old seat), but Roskam is barely ahead, if ahead at all.
I hope I can exhaust myself in the 72-hour push, pending an agreeable schedule at work.
I am really getting discouraged, however, at how hard it is right now. Lots of people are "coming home," so to speak; but there are a stomach-sickening number of people who are going to make this election much more painful than it needs to be.
I know the polls are oversampling Democrats, and I know that everyone at FR thinks that a ceaseless, brutal, calculated, and organized MSM attempt to sway this election will only totally backfire and help elect Republicans. But let me tell you, it's harder right now than many people want to admit.
I am getting really worried about Corker in TN, Talent in MO, and to a smaller degree George "constantly apologize and hope to run out the clock" Allen in VA. Burns seems to be edging closer in MT, and GOTV is early in DeWine's favor - also, Chafee is more popular in RI than many Freepers believe. But I am beginning to fear for the first time that the Dems just might take the Senate, and probably have the House all but sown up.
I'm going to work my butt off as often as I am able. But let me tell you - on the ground, it's a lot harder than many people want to admit right now.
I need some cheering up after this weekend's trauma.....
Yeah this is AP, and if you don't know by now they are pro-democrat, I have a bridge to sell you.
this story came out late Saturday morning on the AP and was covered by the lib-media...they are doing all they can to keep it front page news almost 36-hours later...
You're absolutely right. TN has been one of those states that has been "too close to call" for a long time, and VA has been Allen's for weeks now. The "macaca" business with Allen only affected him for one or two news cycles and quickly died out.
Meanwhile there has been momentum shifts toward the GOP as of late in Montana, Oregon and New Jersey.
This election won't be won on Foleygate or any other scandal. This election will be won on national security issues, which includes the WOT and illegal immigration. Two issues the Democrats find themselves on the wrong side of.
look what they actually say, not what is in the headline. If I was writing the headline from the article, it would be something like "dems don't have enough seats to win either house" Or "currently, republicans hold both houses by a narrow margin" I guess a mention of how unusual it is for the majority party to not lose seats in midterms is out of the question though.
Well, Shrum must have some credibility, since Kerry still believes him!
I have posed this question and answer to all my democrat friends..If Osama, Saddam, and each terrorist would be given a chance to vote in the upcoming American election; which party would they vote for and why would you consider making the same mistake...they think about it!
Exactly!! This is the media, doing its partisan best to make their desired outcome a real outcome by making it the perception. DO NOT FALL FOR THIS!!! They think we are all stupid. They do not understand Republicans, especially not conservatives. We are a different species to them. Just go out and vote. They cannot win if we do not falter.
Keep in mind that every loss of a Democrat seat in either House means they must gain two others elsewhere to gain seats. Ignorant pundits keep pointing to the Gingrich landslide in the House in 1994. That was the ONLY time in the history of the nation that one party made all the gains, and the other party suffered all of the losses. That was the ONLY instance that the two-for-one logic of making up for losses, did not apply.
Just using the numbers as presented in this AP article, it is good news for control of both Houses. In the Senate, a win in either New Jersey (Kean) or Maryland (Steele) will guarantee the Republicans remain in control.
In the House, this article notes that there are several races where Rep's are now leading in efforts to take Dem seats. If the Rep's take just two of those, and all the other races go as presently presented, the Dem's gain only eight seats in the House.
I am not saying that this is in the bag, and there isn't hard work to be done. It is not, and there is. What I am saying is that reality is setting in, and the results are probably that Pelosi will NOT be Speaker of the House, nor Reid (the million-dollar man) be Majority Leader in the Senate.
Please see my most recent statement on running for Congress, here.
What the heck is your problem!! Stop it!!
Excellent reply and also p!ss off the liberal media and vote GOP on November 7th to make them cry in their Starbucks coffee on November 8th.
Your # 13.
You are really on one of the front lines in this war. thanks so much for your report on what it's like. And thanks for all you do.
I also wonder if this isn't a preemptive strategy to provide credibility to the inevitiable "we wuz robbed!"
They sounded like this in 2004, too, then started up with the accusations of 'foul' shortly after they lost. First, claim that they were winning--and when they lose, claim they were cheated.
Great post. I think many on here are too quick to dismiss some of these omens? Will we lose? Maybe. Maybe not but this is going to be a very tight election. The only way we win is by outworking them on the ground in the last two weeks like we did in 2000 and in 2004.
This article is designed to make you stay home. They want you to think it's over and we might as well not bother to vote.
PHOOEY ON THAT NOISE! IT'S NOT OVER TILL THE FAT LADY SINGS - and anyway - the silent majority hasn't shown up to vote and we sure as hell don't participate in any polls.
Aside from that .. the dems are weighting their polls by 16% dems - totally UNREALISTIC - just like everything else they do. If they need to use 16% more dems - then we're winning most of the elections and they are lying through their teeth.
To me .. this is actually good news .. I think it's just another ploy from the media. Please .. let's not be stupid and buy into it.
Oh yeah, it's part of it too. They will never ever admit that the american people have rejected them and their ideas. It will always be a stolen election mantra.
"WASHINGTON (AP) - Democrats hold solid leads for four of the six Republican seats they need to capture the Senate and about 10 of 15 required to win the House, according to officials in both parties. Numerous additional races remain highly competitive."
So everything being equal, the Democrats are not in fear of losing anything.
OK, Dems pick up four in Senate and ten in house. Let's not have the election. The Republicans still hold both houses. Oh, I get it. It's a moral victory.
Translation: The GOP is actually back ahead in most of these races and will be ahead in all of them by election day.
In the House races, we are moving ahead in most of the contested races---the three in IN, Reyonlds in NY is safe, and Musgrove in CO is safe. Carson (D-IN, incumbent) trails by 4 now; and both GA Dems are in trouble (Barrow, & forget the other guy). Bean will lose in IL. That only leaves us with 7 seats really to worry about, while we'll gain 2-3, maybe 4-5.
After factoring in turnout, we'll gain at least a seat in each house.
I'm also on the ground in OH, and while DeWine is facing a tougher test than he should, all of our polls are showing the GOP "coming home" here in the last two weeks. I think mainly they just didn't want to be bothered earlier.
Corker was up 7 points in the latest Zogby poll, and that was before Junior, panicked by the disappointing poll numbers, decided to committ political suicide by crashing Corker's Press Conferance on Ethics in Government. Junior will be lucky, after his petulant debacle, to be down by only 7.
Bear in mind, my friends, that these polls may be designed to extract one more contribution to pay for more advertising. The media is not a disinterested party.
Hope you're right my friend.
Continue to work hard. Turnout will be the determining factor.
AP = Al queda Press
I wouldn't worry about Allen. There hasn't been a single independent poll that has showed Webb ahead. I think Corker's chances are looking better. MO is going to be tough, but I still have hope.
Other than that I agree with you that things do not look very good. The optimism around here is excessive, and the insistence that the GOP will pick up seats is delusional.
Notice that they do not say exactly which ones? They are reaching.
I think Junior committed a major gaffe. I understand it was on all the local news channels in Tennessee this weekend. It was a stupid blunder on Junior's part, but if Zogby has a RAT down by 7, I suppose it's panic time if you're a rat candidate. One can only conclude that a whole bunch of undecideds fell of the fence and into Corker's lap as a direct result of Junior's latest fiasco.
I'm not saying it's a done deal, but it does look a lot better for Corker, than it did say a week or ten days ago.
The AP, on the morning of 8 Nov will be reporting the elections as stolen by the victorious Republican Party, because the poll that matters, the official poll, doesn't match the exit polls.
Republicans need to stock up on beer and popcorn for the Media circus coming to town on 8 Nov.
I doubt that Karl Rove or Ken Mehlman spoke to crAP. These are the two most important strategist in the Republican Party and they know exactly what is going much more than any other Republican pundit or strategist crAP can access. They know that we are not going to lose more than 10 seats in the House and no more than three seats in the Senate, and hence we keep control of Congress.
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