The Polls Are Always Right!
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Posted on 10/24/2006 4:55:39 PM PDT by GarySpFc
Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10438
Geography Surveyed: Missouri Data Collected: 10/21/2006 - 10/23/2006 Release Date: 10/24/2006 11:45 AM ET Sponsors: KCTV-TV Kansas City, KSDK-TV St. Louis
MO Senate Seat Tips Back To Republican Incumbent Talent: In an election for United States Senator from Missouri today, 10/24/06, 2 weeks to Election Day, incumbent Republican Jim Talent rebounds to inch ahead of Democrat challenger Claire McCaskill, 48% to 45%, according to a poll of 630 Likely Voters conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis and KCTV-TV Kansas City. This is a dramatic reversal when compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll in Missouri released 10/12/06. In the 10/12 SurveyUSA poll, Talent had 42%, today 48%, a gain of 6. In the 10/12 poll, McCaskill had 51%, now 45%, a loss of 6. Talent trailed by 9, now leads by 3, a 12-point swing. Two things are simultaneously at work: In the 10/12 poll, 32% of Likely Voters identified themselves as Republican. Today, 38% do. Republicans appear newly energized in this contest, in part driven by the forces at work on Amendment 2, separate analysis to follow. Second, in the 10/12 poll, McCaskill led by 13 points among Independent voters. Today, Independents are tied at 41%. The number of "undecided" Independents has doubled since the 10/12 poll, and the number of Independents voting for Libertarian Frank Gilmour has doubled since the 10/12 poll. In the Ozark Region, Talent led by 6 on 10/12. Today Talent leads by 36, a 30-point swing to the Republican. In rural Central Missouri, McCaskill led by 16 on 10/12. Today, Talent leads by 8, a 24-point swing to the Republican. The St. Louis and Kansas City regions continue to favor McCaskill. There is other movement: Talent had trailed among whites, now leads. Talent had trailed among the youngest voters, now leads. Here is the inter-relationship with the Stem Cell Amendment: On 10/12, McCaskill led by 44 points among voters who were certain to vote "Yes" on Amendment 2. Today, McCaskill leads by 38 points among the "Certain Yes" voters. But: the size of the "Certain Yes" group has shrunk from 57% of Likely Voters on 10/12 to today 45%. On 10/12, Talent led by 68 points among voters who were certain to vote "No" on Amendment 2. Today, Talent leads by 56 points among the "Certain No" voters. But: the size of the "Certain No" group has grown from 27% of Likely Voters on 10/12 to today 36% of Likely Voters. Last, an imponderable: On 10/21/06, the first day of the field period for this survey, McCaskill began airing a TV commercial that featured the actor Michael J Fox, who suffers from Parkinson's disease. There is no way to estimate, or even guess at, whether this advertisement had an impact on the numbers that SurveyUSA reports today. SurveyUSA will make note, however, that the interviews for a competing poll released today by Mason-Dixon, which show McCaskill ahead by 3 points, were completed on 10/19, before the Michael J Fox advertisement aired. It is unclear if the airing of the Fox ad is entirely coincidental to the movement observed here by SurveyUSA, or if there is some relationship. Many other factors were simultaneously at work in Missouri, including a tougher, more aggressive stance taken by Talent in his debate appearances with McCaskill, and advertisements taken out by Talent attacking McCaskill. Those factors acknowledged, Talent did better day-by-day in this survey, from Minus 1 on Saturday 10/21, to Plus 5 on Sunday 10/22, to Plus 7 on Monday 10/23. When the 3 days of interviewing are averaged, Talent is up 3 points, which are the results SurveyUSA presents here.
Support For Stem Cell Amendment Begins to Erode, Opposition Increases; Males Bail: In a referendum today, 10/24/06, 2 weeks to Election Day, Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative, has more support than opposition, but: with 18% of Likely Voters Not Yet Certain how they will vote on the Amendment, and with some demographic groups dramatically shifting their position on the Amendment, the contest is too volatile, and too unpredictable, to reliably forecast. Twelve days ago, in an identical SurveyUSA poll, Amendment 2 passed, 57% 'Certain' to vote Yes, 27% 'Certain' to vote No. Since then, 'Certain Yes' is down to 45%, 'Certain No' is up to 36%; a 30-point cushion on 10/12 is today a 9-point cushion. Among males, the Amendment had passed by 49 points on 10/12. Today, it passes by 6, a 43-point swing. Among voters age 35 to 49, opposition to the Amendment has doubled from a SurveyUSA poll on 9/14. Among affluent voters, the Amendment passed by 35 points on 10/12, passes by 2 points today, a 33-point swing. In Central MO, the Amendment had passed by 32 points, now is defeated by 6, a 38-point swing. SurveyUSA did not read the full text of the Constitutional Amendment to respondents. The exact language that SurveyUSA read to respondents appears in the table below.
Filtering: 900 Missouri adults were interviewed 10/21/06 through 10/23/06. Of them, 821 were registered to vote. Of them, 630 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters. Note On 10/21 and 10/22, the first two days of the field period for this survey, a World Series game was played, featuring a team from St. Louis. The Michael J Fox advertisements aired during the World Series, and possibly at other times. It is unclear what affect the overlap of the World Series and the interviewing period for this survey had on the outcome, but we note it here, as a factor to consider.
1 Asked of 630 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%
If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jim Talent? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Libertarian Frank Gilmour? Or some other candidate?
48% Talent (R) 45% McCaskill (D) 2% Gilmour (L) 5% Other/Undecided
2 Asked of 630 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%
Also on the ballot is Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative. In an election today, are you certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or, are you not certain how you will vote on Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell initiative?
45% 'Certain' Yes 36% 'Certain' No 18% Not Certain
If missouri elects that dingbat, there is no hope for the GOP.
this simply can't be..the MSM is telling us a dem landslide is coming and the DU has already celebrated their victories..whether or not the VOTE has already happened notwithstanding..
Oh PLEASE let this be true through November 7th....
Damn, there are way too many polls out there. I'm waiting to see a poll on the polls themselves......
Did this poll take into account all the voter fraud that happens in St. Louis every election?
Drudge has a headline up that says actor Jim Caviezel (Passion of the Christ) and Cards Pitcher Jeff Suppan will appear in a response to the Michael J. Fox stem cell spot.
I like Jim Talent. He plays for keeps.
The pro-ads play at the heartstrings:
"Cancer survivor and Missourian Sheryl Crow wants you to vote yes on Amendment 2..." Sheryl - if you want to fund the killing of children, why don't you pony up your own cash? I'm sure you coulda leeched some off of Lance.
How are they figuring support is collapsing? What reasons?
I hope this is true! McRascal is a real socialist piece of work!
I'm at a computer with no speakers. Anybody got a link to a transcript?
In St. Joseph (pop: ~75,000), it's probably 2-1 Talent yard signs against McCaskill signs. Also, most of the McCaskill signs I see are in the 'vapid' Democrats' yards - where they have a sign for every Democrat candidate. Not scientific, just reportin' what I see.
Also, St.Joe is kinda Democrat.
If they run a poll on the polls, I'm gonna follow that up with a poll on the poll of the polls, myself!
That's a dynamite commercial.
Puny sample size. No wonder the results are all over the map.
Rush said today that the whole stem cell controversy in MS is a fraud. The bill is not really a bill to allow stem cell research - that is already legal. The bill is really a bill that is worded in such a way as to allow cloning, but the advocates chose to refer to it as stem cell research to disguise the true intentions of the bill. Maybe the truth about the bill is getting out now that the voters are beginning to focus more on the issues as the election approaches. That is one thing that really "gets" me about the libs - they can not be honest about who they are and what they believe. The only way they can win is to lie and misrepresent the facts. Despicable!
I've heard he Caviezel/Suppan ad. It is good. There is time. No on 2.
I saw Talent tonight for the first time on Hardleftball and he was quite articulate & was able to get out of the box chrissy tried to trap him in. I was impressed. Wish I'd noticed sooner.
Yup, Dems are gonna be slitting their wrists in two weeks. GOP will hold both chambers. So close, and yet so far away...
Both Talent and Santorum were excellent on Chrissy's dumb show. I am confident about Talent. Please, PA Republicans, get out there for Rick Santorum.
More fraud found in Kansas CIty today. Same people involved - group called ACORN.
Good for you.......I say "Pony up", too. Show us the money, we're tired of your mouth, Sheryl.
That's a lot of yard signs for Talent in St. Joe...and you are right, it's pretty democrat heavy. My husband is from there so I know.
Actually, if the traditional election day undecided break of 2-1 against the incumbant holds true, Talent will get 51% of the vote, and I don't care how many times David Bois, Al Gore and John Kerry count them, 51% ALWAYS wins.
Great! Thanks.
Phrased like that number 2 will go down and so will McCaskill.
The Polls Are Always Right!
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I pray you are right! We must win one for the W!
This is great news!
DU falls for the dem line every election -- we'll have to send over some crying towels...
Drudge had a headline that McCaskill voted against stem-cell research despite the now infamous Michael J. Fox pro-McCaskill ad.
A friend of mine is in the CGSS at Ft Leavenworth and he has been railing about the stem cell ads for months.
The ads say that if Missourians don't approve the amendment-if researchers anywhere find a cure using stem cells-
Missourians will be prohibited from participating in any medical benefits from that research.
He is incredulous that no one in the local media ever calls them on this blatant lie.
PMSNBC set up their cameras at the Republican campaign HQ in Springfield - Sen. Talent spoke to a group of us before he did the interview with Chrissy. I think Talent is solid on the issues and hope we can send him back to D.C. I saw several retired military people at the event this afternoon and I would guess that he will get a high percentage of the active and retired military vote.
The Michael J. Fox crap didn't do it for Claire?? What a shock.
Yeah, it's gonna be funny lurking in DU and hearing their wails of frustration when they don't get the seats. I'll be sure and post some funny stuff their myself. I'll probably get booted in about a minute.
Chris Matthews can suck rotten eggs.
I just registered myself. I am MeanBeagle.
LOL. I need to come up with something like that. Have fun.
Missouri, check. Tennessee, check. Virginia, check.
Montana, closing fast. Ohio and Pennsylvania left to go.
Keep your eyes on Maryland and New Jersey.
It's always ACORN. They pretty much only do voter fraud.
Montana, closing fast. Ohio and Pennsylvania left to go.
Keep your eyes on Maryland and New Jersey.
I am SO rooting for Rick Santorum and for Michael Steele!
Of course we have to hope Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island pulls it off, too...
Karl? Please help...
Only after Santorum, then Steele, then Burns, then DeWine, then Kean are secure, then I will worry about Chafee.
While I agree with you concept (thanks) I think this poll shows 48% Talent (R) 45% McCaskill (D) 2% Gilmour (L) 5% Other/Undecided. The 18% undecided is not regarding Talent it is from the stem cell question. Would Talent still reach 50%?
If Gilmour is pulling a REAL 2%, and "Other" candidates pickup 1%, the race is over and Talent wins.
"I like Jim Talent. He plays for keeps."Totally agreed. That's where I sent money :)
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