Skip to comments.UNREPORTED IN HOT SENATE RACES: Democrats broke while Republicans' powder is dry
Posted on 10/25/2006 8:38:08 AM PDT by dangus
One must be careful to make too much of a given Senate candidate appearing broke at the 3rd-quarter FEC filing time. After all, the national parties and major donors can rescue a strong candidates foundering finances. And certain costs, such as advertising, may even still have been paid up front. But when so many candidates from one party, who have been very strong, are suddenly out of cash, while the other party is cash-rich, something may be afoot. In this case, the Republicans continue to use their strategy which produced surprise wins in 2002 and 2004: They are keeping their powder dry for a last minute surge.
In Arizona, Jim Pederson (D) has outspent incumbent John Kyl, $10.3 million to $8.5 million. But Pederson is now outfunded, $5 million to 1.18 million.
In Connecticut, Ned Lamont (D) has spent $8.72 million challenging and has only $330 thousand left. Although his opponent is Democrat Joe Liberman, Lamont may yet draw last-,inute donations from other cash-starved Democrats.
In Missouri, Claire McCaskill (D) has matched Senator Jim Talent, $7.0 million to $7.85 million, but has only a quarter million dollars left, while Talent still has $4.2 million.
In Ohio, Sherrod Brown (D) has matched incumbent Mike DeWine, $7.5 million to $8.07 million, but trails in cash on hand, $1.21 million to $4.5 million.
In Montana, national Democrats have already scrambled to help John Tester find $3.7 million, but he only has $571 thousand left; Conrad Burns has $1.7 million.
Republicans looking to pick up Democrat seats have largely been woefully under-funded throughout the campaign. Some show signs of being able to make a last-minute push. A particularly hopeful race is in Maryland, where some polls show Michael Steele (R) has pulled even with Ben Cardin (D). Cardin has outspent him $5.19 million to $4.41 million, but Steele now has the advantage, with $2.06 million to Cardins $1.59 million.
In Washington, heavily indebted incumbent Maria Cantwell has spent $9.58 million to Challenger Mike McGavicjs $6.5 million, but has only a tiny cash-on-hand advantage, $2.4 million to $2.12 million.
New Jerseys Tom Kean has been outspent $2.43 million to Sen. Bob Menendezs $6.65 million, but is one of the very few candidates with more cash on hand than he has already spent, $3.23 million. (Menendez has $5.51 million.)
One race national Republicans should look to support is in Michigan, where Mike Bouchard is remaining vaguely competitive with Sen. Debbie Stabenow. She has spent $9.32 million to $3.94 million. She has only $1.25 million. Bouchard has even less, only $0.6 million, but Republican support for Bouchard could force national Democrats to spend on this race.
Not every race is cheery for Republicans, financially. In Tennessee, both candidates are running low. Bob Corker and Harold Ford have spent $12.42 million and $8.93 million, and both have less than one million left. (Corker has less than half a million, to Fords $0.77 million, but can spend his own money.)
And, in Pennsylvania, Santorum has spent $18,87 million to Caseys $11.29 million. Both seem to have adequate funds left, but Casey now has more than Santorum, $3.70 million to $3.64 million.
And in Rhode Island, Republican incumbent Chafee has spent so much, including beating back Republican challenger Steven Laffey ($3.42 million), he has only $.58 million against Sheldon Whitehouses $1.4 million.
Looking at the preceding data, Republicans should gain momentum in Ohio, Missouri, Montana, and could gain in Maryland, New Jersey and Washington. Only in Rhode Island and Pennsylvania do they look like they could yet drop further behind. It is very possible that they could lose no net seats in the Senate.
The author predicts that the GOP will hold both houses based on money raised. The prediction method has been highly accurate in races since 1972.
Rick Santorum is the candidate to whom I have contributed the most this year, and whose loss would most be felt by conservatives across the nation. I'm not giving up on him yet.
Another great Freeper post you don't see on other true grassroot conservative sites.
According to the DUmmies, that means the democrats are "confident". Otherwise, they wouldn't get into debt.
Stupid DUmmies. It means the American people are INVESTING in Republicans because that's what they want. They're not helping the democrats at all.
Note: The above chart is for house races. The method isn't quite as accurate for senate races. Since 1996, the cash advantage has resulted in victory about 89% of the time for senate seats.
Senator Shelby has $11 million on hand...
Please write him a note to get him to share the wealth to help his senate colleagues.
It's not just polls...it's much more than that. All the dims dirty tricks has also backfired on them big time. If Republicans were thinking about sitting out this election, they're NO longer goin' to do that. What the dims have done is make us once again realize how evil and untrustworthy they are...and HERDS of Republicans will be voting...and it would not surprise me if unregistered voters have registered to vote for the Republicans... ;o)
Didn't know the dollar figure, but that's what I heard too.
The DSCC's optimism about winning the Senate is apparently contagious as the DNC is going to pony up an extra $5-10M for the Senate committee, according to sources familiar with the previously reported arrangement between the two campaign orgs.
While the DNC doesn't have $10M to just toss around to another campaign committee, the DNC apparently has decided to go into debt to come up with the extra cash DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has been pleading for from DNC Chair Howard Dean. The actual amount of the loan the DNC is taking out is not known as the committee holds out hope they can raise nearly everything they need before the election. But a line of credit has been opened.
For sure. The democrats are acting like uncivilized Neanderthals. They're scratching and biting every hand that's ever fed them. I don't see where people would want to be represented by these animals. It would be a bad reflection on them.
(Not that I'm based or anything....)
Just to make sure..... Defeat the Democommies! VOTE!!!! More is at stake than you would believe!!!
I go back into the scriptures and look up publicans spoken of in Jesus day....that's what they were called back then...I always think of the rat party when I read those scriptures.
Getting a little late to spend it, isn't it?
Why do you think the DNC just borrowed 10 million for races. The close races will be funded by the DNC.
Think Pentecostal. Commercials are something to ignore, but a huge rally and a special campaign visit will get people praising when it matters the most.
BTW has Spenctor & Bush campaigned for him &/or are they? My guess is no. Keeping a conservative in this corrupt/fraudulent "Two-Party Cartel" doesn't sit well with the puppeteers that own & run this cartel.
Typical dims. They simply cannot handle anything involving finances.
But when so many candidates from one party, who have been very strong, are suddenly out of cash, while the other party is cash-rich
Typical dims. They simply cannot handle anything involving finances.
Hey.......how about they get those creative people from Air Amerika to help out?.......they are really great with financing.
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