Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

UNREPORTED IN HOT SENATE RACES: Democrats broke while Republicans' powder is dry
Analysis of FEC reports ^ | 10/25/06 | Dangus

Posted on 10/25/2006 8:38:08 AM PDT by dangus

One must be careful to make too much of a given Senate candidate appearing broke at the 3rd-quarter FEC filing time. After all, the national parties and major donors can rescue a strong candidate’s foundering finances. And certain costs, such as advertising, may even still have been paid up front. But when so many candidates from one party, who have been very strong, are suddenly out of cash, while the other party is cash-rich, something may be afoot. In this case, the Republicans continue to use their strategy which produced surprise wins in 2002 and 2004: They are keeping their powder dry for a last minute surge.

In Arizona, Jim Pederson (D) has outspent incumbent John Kyl, $10.3 million to $8.5 million. But Pederson is now outfunded, $5 million to 1.18 million.

In Connecticut, Ned Lamont (D) has spent $8.72 million challenging and has only $330 thousand left. Although his opponent is Democrat Joe Liberman, Lamont may yet draw last-,inute donations from other cash-starved Democrats.

In Missouri, Claire McCaskill (D) has matched Senator Jim Talent, $7.0 million to $7.85 million, but has only a quarter million dollars left, while Talent still has $4.2 million.

In Ohio, Sherrod Brown (D) has matched incumbent Mike DeWine, $7.5 million to $8.07 million, but trails in cash on hand, $1.21 million to $4.5 million.

In Montana, national Democrats have already scrambled to help John Tester find $3.7 million, but he only has $571 thousand left; Conrad Burns has $1.7 million.

Republicans looking to pick up Democrat seats have largely been woefully under-funded throughout the campaign. Some show signs of being able to make a last-minute push. A particularly hopeful race is in Maryland, where some polls show Michael Steele (R) has pulled even with Ben Cardin (D). Cardin has outspent him $5.19 million to $4.41 million, but Steele now has the advantage, with $2.06 million to Cardin’s $1.59 million.

In Washington, heavily indebted incumbent Maria Cantwell has spent $9.58 million to Challenger Mike McGavicj’s $6.5 million, but has only a tiny cash-on-hand advantage, $2.4 million to $2.12 million.

New Jersey’s Tom Kean has been outspent $2.43 million to Sen. Bob Menendez’s $6.65 million, but is one of the very few candidates with more cash on hand than he has already spent, $3.23 million. (Menendez has $5.51 million.)

One race national Republicans should look to support is in Michigan, where Mike Bouchard is remaining vaguely competitive with Sen. Debbie Stabenow. She has spent $9.32 million to $3.94 million. She has only $1.25 million. Bouchard has even less, only $0.6 million, but Republican support for Bouchard could force national Democrats to spend on this race.

Not every race is cheery for Republicans, financially. In Tennessee, both candidates are running low. Bob Corker and Harold Ford have spent $12.42 million and $8.93 million, and both have less than one million left. (Corker has less than half a million, to Ford’s $0.77 million, but can spend his own money.)

And, in Pennsylvania, Santorum has spent $18,87 million to Casey’s $11.29 million. Both seem to have adequate funds left, but Casey now has more than Santorum, $3.70 million to $3.64 million.

And in Rhode Island, Republican incumbent Chafee has spent so much, including beating back Republican challenger Steven Laffey ($3.42 million), he has only $.58 million against Sheldon Whitehouse’s $1.4 million.

Looking at the preceding data, Republicans should gain momentum in Ohio, Missouri, Montana, and could gain in Maryland, New Jersey and Washington. Only in Rhode Island and Pennsylvania do they look like they could yet drop further behind. It is very possible that they could lose no net seats in the Senate.


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Arizona; US: Connecticut; US: Maryland; US: Missouri; US: Montana; US: New Jersey; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania; US: Rhode Island; US: Tennessee; US: Washington
KEYWORDS: 2006; bouchard; brown; burns; cantwell; casey; congress; corker; dangus; democrats; dewine; election; elections; ford; gop; kean; kyl; lamont; lieberman; mccaskill; menendez; msm; polls; republicans; santorum; senate; stabenow; steele; talent; tester; votegop; voterepublican
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-66 next last

1 posted on 10/25/2006 8:38:10 AM PDT by dangus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: dangus
McCaskill (D)... has only a quarter million dollars left, while Talent still has $4.2 million.

Now that's Talent.

2 posted on 10/25/2006 8:42:37 AM PDT by theDentist (Qwerty ergo typo : I type, therefore I misspelll.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

Let's just hope the libs starve to death and do this country a favor.


3 posted on 10/25/2006 8:44:11 AM PDT by EagleUSA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus
Why should the... “Blue Wave”... need any money at all?
4 posted on 10/25/2006 8:44:36 AM PDT by johnny7 (“And what's Fonzie like? Come on Yolanda... what's Fonzie like?!”)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: theDentist

I would think the ad buys are already done. Unless they find a way to cram in 8 more hours in a day. I wouldn't put it past them.

GO TALENT!


5 posted on 10/25/2006 8:46:06 AM PDT by listenhillary (Islam = Religion of peace. If you say otherwise, we'll kill you!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: dangus

Something is afoot, Republicans are voting with their cash and Dims just talk.


6 posted on 10/25/2006 8:48:16 AM PDT by tiki
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

Spent their wads like sailors in a foreign port..........


7 posted on 10/25/2006 8:48:30 AM PDT by Red Badger (CONGRESS NEEDS TO BE DE-FOLEY-ATED...............................)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

Here in TX, the dems are so bad off in the senate races that my neighbor and big union and dem man could not give me her name. KBH will win easily.


8 posted on 10/25/2006 8:54:25 AM PDT by Hydroshock ( (Proverbs 22:7). The rich ruleth over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

According to Drudge's headline over the weekend, which now seems to be gone, the two parties have spent as much money on this midterm election as they normally spend on a presidential election. More than two billion, I think.

I don't know if that's accurate, because there are various ways of hiding what's going on, but it suggests how important this election does.

And the importance of this election is also suggested by the behavior of the Democrat Press, which has never, never been so blatant in their partisanship and their propaganda spin as they are now. They are pulling out all the stops, and don't seem to worry about losing any remaining reputation they have for objectively reporting the news.


9 posted on 10/25/2006 8:54:53 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

I am guessing the GOP will lose 2-3 Senate seats with unfortunately Santorum being one of them.


10 posted on 10/25/2006 8:55:14 AM PDT by Always Right
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

Always like the comments about "surprise wins in 2002-2004"
Only the MSM and the experts are "surprised" Republicans know it is going to happen.....and so do the Dims, but they won't admit it.


11 posted on 10/25/2006 8:55:51 AM PDT by newcthem (Brought to you by the INFIDEL PARTY)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Lookin' good.


12 posted on 10/25/2006 8:57:43 AM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand; but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

If anyone's feeling generous, https://mikeformichigan.com/donate.php is the donation form for Mike Bouchard. I'd like to get rid of Fat Debbie.


13 posted on 10/25/2006 8:58:58 AM PDT by MichiganConservative (The US is so full of domestic enemies, maybe all we can do is slow the inevitable ascent of tyranny.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

How relevant are these FEC declarations anyway. Demoncats have been cheating on their taxes for years by shipping their money overseas. Why would I believe that these form reflect anything differently?


14 posted on 10/25/2006 8:59:18 AM PDT by deputac (NYPD & FDNY: The Other Twin Towers of New York)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

Rush reported last week that the Ragin Cajun said the DRats could win the seats if they had the funding.

Then there were reports that the DNC was trying to take out loans.


15 posted on 10/25/2006 9:00:29 AM PDT by IrishMike (Democrats .... Stuck on Stupid, RINO's ...the most vicious judas goats)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: IrishMike

Besides buying TV ads and buying votes on election day from homeless people, what else would the money be used for?


16 posted on 10/25/2006 9:01:59 AM PDT by deputac (NYPD & FDNY: The Other Twin Towers of New York)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: dangus

I just sent Santorum a donation yesterday. I hope many more do likewise. I really hate to see Pennsylvania going from swing to blue.


17 posted on 10/25/2006 9:02:29 AM PDT by marinamuffy ("..pacifism ensures that cruelty will prevail on earth." - Dennis Prager)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: IrishMike

I thought I read last week that Dean took out a 5 million loan for the DNC.


18 posted on 10/25/2006 9:03:30 AM PDT by Republican Red (if you don't want to root for the home team then get the hell out of the stadium)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: shield
Lookin' good.

It sounds like the democrats "poll" propaganda may have backfired. Cash is rolling into the Republican coffers.
The democrats attempt to "poll" the election has awakened the sleeping majority.

19 posted on 10/25/2006 9:03:31 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Cicero

Insightful. This off-year IS key, because as Rush points out, if the GOP were to lose, it would send people screaming into the arms of idiots like McLame, and guarantee a Hillary win in 08.


20 posted on 10/25/2006 9:04:00 AM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: dangus
Check out this article from Barron's:

The GOP Victory

The author predicts that the GOP will hold both houses based on money raised. The prediction method has been highly accurate in races since 1972.

21 posted on 10/25/2006 9:04:53 AM PDT by SuperSonic (Bush "lied", people dyed.......their fingers purple.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: marinamuffy

Rick Santorum is the candidate to whom I have contributed the most this year, and whose loss would most be felt by conservatives across the nation. I'm not giving up on him yet.


22 posted on 10/25/2006 9:05:58 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (http://auh2orepublican.blogspot.com/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: SuperSonic

23 posted on 10/25/2006 9:06:46 AM PDT by SuperSonic (Bush "lied", people dyed.......their fingers purple.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: dangus

Another great Freeper post you don't see on other true grassroot conservative sites.


24 posted on 10/25/2006 9:09:00 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (DON'T BELIEVE PESSIMISM: FEELINGS ARE FOR LOVE SONGS. FACTS ARE FOR PREDICTING WHO WINS IN NOV)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Republican Red
I thought I read last week that Dean took out a 5 million loan for the DNC.

According to the DUmmies, that means the democrats are "confident". Otherwise, they wouldn't get into debt.

Stupid DUmmies. It means the American people are INVESTING in Republicans because that's what they want. They're not helping the democrats at all.

25 posted on 10/25/2006 9:09:38 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: SuperSonic

Note: The above chart is for house races. The method isn't quite as accurate for senate races. Since 1996, the cash advantage has resulted in victory about 89% of the time for senate seats.


26 posted on 10/25/2006 9:10:11 AM PDT by SuperSonic (Bush "lied", people dyed.......their fingers purple.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: dangus

Senator Shelby has $11 million on hand...

Please write him a note to get him to share the wealth to help his senate colleagues.


27 posted on 10/25/2006 9:11:37 AM PDT by WOSG (Broken-glass time, Republicans! Save the Congress!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: concerned about politics

It's not just polls...it's much more than that. All the dims dirty tricks has also backfired on them big time. If Republicans were thinking about sitting out this election, they're NO longer goin' to do that. What the dims have done is make us once again realize how evil and untrustworthy they are...and HERDS of Republicans will be voting...and it would not surprise me if unregistered voters have registered to vote for the Republicans... ;o)


28 posted on 10/25/2006 9:12:05 AM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand; but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Republican Red

Didn't know the dollar figure, but that's what I heard too.


29 posted on 10/25/2006 9:15:42 AM PDT by IrishMike (Democrats .... Stuck on Stupid, RINO's ...the most vicious judas goats)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: IrishMike

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1721646/posts

The DSCC's optimism about winning the Senate is apparently contagious as the DNC is going to pony up an extra $5-10M for the Senate committee, according to sources familiar with the previously reported arrangement between the two campaign orgs.

While the DNC doesn't have $10M to just toss around to another campaign committee, the DNC apparently has decided to go into debt to come up with the extra cash DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has been pleading for from DNC Chair Howard Dean. The actual amount of the loan the DNC is taking out is not known as the committee holds out hope they can raise nearly everything they need before the election. But a line of credit has been opened.


30 posted on 10/25/2006 9:17:24 AM PDT by Republican Red (if you don't want to root for the home team then get the hell out of the stadium)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: shield
It's not just polls...it's much more than that. All the dims dirty tricks has also backfired on them big time.

For sure. The democrats are acting like uncivilized Neanderthals. They're scratching and biting every hand that's ever fed them. I don't see where people would want to be represented by these animals. It would be a bad reflection on them.

(Not that I'm based or anything....)

31 posted on 10/25/2006 9:19:00 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Republican Red

Thanks.


32 posted on 10/25/2006 9:19:07 AM PDT by IrishMike (Democrats .... Stuck on Stupid, RINO's ...the most vicious judas goats)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: dangus


Just to make sure..... Defeat the Democommies! VOTE!!!! More is at stake than you would believe!!!


33 posted on 10/25/2006 9:20:18 AM PDT by Paperdoll (Defeat the Democommies! VOTE!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: concerned about politics

I go back into the scriptures and look up publicans spoken of in Jesus day....that's what they were called back then...I always think of the rat party when I read those scriptures.


34 posted on 10/25/2006 9:23:11 AM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand; but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: dangus

Getting a little late to spend it, isn't it?


35 posted on 10/25/2006 9:24:54 AM PDT by Little Ray (If you want to be a martyr, we want to martyr you.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dangus

Why do you think the DNC just borrowed 10 million for races. The close races will be funded by the DNC.


36 posted on 10/25/2006 9:27:01 AM PDT by jbwbubba
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Little Ray
Getting a little late to spend it, isn't it?

Think Pentecostal. Commercials are something to ignore, but a huge rally and a special campaign visit will get people praising when it matters the most.

37 posted on 10/25/2006 9:30:43 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: AuH2ORepublican
Rick Santorum is the candidate to whom I have contributed the most this year, and whose loss would most be felt by conservatives across the nation. I'm not giving up on him yet.

BTW has Spenctor & Bush campaigned for him &/or are they? My guess is no. Keeping a conservative in this corrupt/fraudulent "Two-Party Cartel" doesn't sit well with the puppeteers that own & run this cartel.

38 posted on 10/25/2006 9:37:47 AM PDT by Digger
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: dangus
But when so many candidates from one party, who have been very strong, are suddenly out of cash, while the other party is cash-rich

Typical dims. They simply cannot handle anything involving finances.

39 posted on 10/25/2006 9:39:31 AM PDT by beltfed308 (Snap,bang or fizz works for me)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: beltfed308

But when so many candidates from one party, who have been very strong, are suddenly out of cash, while the other party is cash-rich

Typical dims. They simply cannot handle anything involving finances.

Hey.......how about they get those creative people from Air Amerika to help out?.......they are really great with financing.


40 posted on 10/25/2006 10:00:56 AM PDT by newcthem (Brought to you by the INFIDEL PARTY)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: tiki

Dims have less disposable income. They spend theirs at a higher rate on: illegal drugs, abortions, dining out, general partying, lawyers to cleanup after the previous, alimony, child support, mail order brides, vacations to Thailand......


41 posted on 10/25/2006 10:19:44 AM PDT by east1234 (It's the borders stupid. It's also WWIV.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: east1234

Whoops! Left out prostitutes, hush money, gambling, lottery, mistresses.....


42 posted on 10/25/2006 10:27:51 AM PDT by east1234 (It's the borders stupid. It's also WWIV.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: dangus
Oh well, after these lying rats go down in defeat, they can use the product below to restore some happiness.


43 posted on 10/25/2006 1:03:17 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (There's a dwindling market for Marxist Homosexual Lunatic wet dreams posing as journalism)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: concerned about politics

I know I have donated more than I usually do. I suspect I'm not the only one.


44 posted on 10/25/2006 1:09:58 PM PDT by Knitting A Conundrum (Act Justly, Love Mercy, and Walk Humbly With God Micah 6:8)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Paperdoll



Drive the Libs crazy. Show up and vote.

They really, really, really, want you to stay home and fume.

Tell them, "In your dreams, moonbats!!" and pull that lever, push that pin, punch that button.

The moonbats are counting on you to stay home.

You really ought to disappoint them, just for the pleasure of seeing the election reports and the crestfallen faces, if for no other reason.

They've earned it.


45 posted on 10/25/2006 1:10:59 PM PDT by Knitting A Conundrum (Act Justly, Love Mercy, and Walk Humbly With God Micah 6:8)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: dangus

Maybe they should raise taxes on all registered democrats to pay for the election campaign, ya know, for the common good.


46 posted on 10/25/2006 1:15:35 PM PDT by 38special (I mean come'on.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: east1234

I had already hit the post button when I remembered that most of their activists obviously don't have jobs either.


47 posted on 10/25/2006 4:03:35 PM PDT by tiki
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: marinamuffy

I have given Santorum $100 and I live in Ohio.
Whats going on over there anyway? :(


48 posted on 10/25/2006 5:39:00 PM PDT by Nav_Mom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: dangus


49 posted on 10/25/2006 10:45:45 PM PDT by dangus (Pope calls Islam violent; Millions of Moslems demonstrate)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nav_Mom

I'm not sure what's happening here. The media sure is going all out against him though. I worry about the masses who just get their information from the MSM.

I still have hopes for a Santorum victory. Even in Montgomery County, which gets a little more blue every year, I have seen plenty of Santorum signs. In Bucks county they are everywhere.

I'm just going to make sure eveyone I know who will vote Republican gets out to vote on election day. If we get a good GOP turnout I think we can do it and shock the pollsters and MSM types.


50 posted on 10/26/2006 7:56:17 AM PDT by marinamuffy ("..pacifism ensures that cruelty will prevail on earth." - Dennis Prager)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 48 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-66 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson