Posted on 10/28/2006 4:14:06 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Here's another race to keep people up late on election night. All year long, the two candidates have been trading the lead position. Now, with less than two weeks to go, it’s a toss-up once again.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Republican Tom Kean Jr. with 43% of the vote and Democratic Senator Bob Menendez with 41%. However, when we add in the leaners, it’s all tied at 45% (see crosstabs).
What’s truly amazing about these numbers is the fact that Menendez can’t pull away despite the deep Blue nature of the state. By a margin of 54% to 36%, New Jersey voters prefer Democratic control of the Senate. But Menendez attracts only 74% of those who want Democrats running things.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
The way polls are done now (over-weighting with Democrats), "tied" means Republicans will win.
Sweet.
Sounds like that race won't be called very early on election night.
Menendez will take this one.
ping
Tied means likey Dem win with voter fraud.
This is a passage that bears VERY close scrutiny:
"What’s truly amazing about these numbers is the fact that Menendez can’t pull away despite the deep Blue nature of the state. By a margin of 54% to 36%, New Jersey voters prefer Democratic control of the Senate. But Menendez attracts only 74% of those who want Democrats running things."
More than anything else, this reflects that Bob Menendez is a bad candidate. His corrupt record reminds New Jersey voters why they dislike politics. In spite of the DemocRATS best efforts, Menendez is an offer they CAN refuse.
As for vote fraud, the NJ Supreme Court's ruling on marriage should turn out lots of pro-family voters, and they won't vote for Menendez.
CF is this is the opposite of Montana.
In MT they want to fire Burns and keep the GOP in power, in NJ they want to hire Kean but the fire the GOP.
So with that said, I'll suspect that the GOP goes one for two in these races.
If that's the case, I'd rather keep Burns.
Wrong. What's amazing is that Menendez continues to be a serious candidate for the Senate even though he is tbe subject of a federal criminal investigation.
Montana is interesting. In spite of overwhelmingly favorable press and a scandal-tainted GOP opponent, Jon Tester has never been able to reach 50% in any polls. It's as if while voters don't want to reelect Conrad Burns, most of them don't regard Tester as an acceptable alternative.
You are correct. The vote fraud machinery in Camden, Newark, Paterson, Elizabeth, and Jersey City will cook Kean if Kean doesn't pull away with a bigger margin by E-day.
I don't believe most any poll because most all favor Dems. This would be some upset if Kean could win it.
I think that is exactly what is going on in Montanta.
In most states, I add 5% to any republican's poll numbers. In NJ, Michigan and Pennsylvania, I subtract 5% to account for fraud.
(Some states, like Illinois, aren't worth bothering with - the fraud will expand as needed...)
This usually works pretty well.
Sounds like the returns for Hudson County won't come in until late while they "count" (i.e., make) votes for Menendez.
I think that the anti-marriage ruling by the NJ Supreme Court will incite many non-political pro-family citizens to turn out, more than the Democrat machines can counter.
If Kean wins this out, I don't think we can lose the Senate.
Go Kean!
and no one is going to learn anything about Menendez in the next 10 days to put him in a more positive light then he is right now.
I think its Kean's to lose now.
Either that, or it'll be called when the first precinct reports a 1 vote Menendez lead.
You know, kinda like Flordida being called before the polls in the most Republican part of the state were closed?
Those who don't want to re-elect Burns can't see beyond Tester's goofy platform of "All Abramoff, All The Time". Tester is just simply a jerk who is devoid of any forward looking agenda.
When you got Islamofascists out in this world just waiting to wipe us off the face of the earth, I think a DC scandal is the least of our problems.
Ever since 9/11 my priority list just happens to be different these days.
Right up there at the top remains "Close the damn borders", and "Rid this earth of the Islamic scum that killed 3,000 of my fellow citizens in one day".
If voters want to punish the president and this Congress for trying to accomplish the seemingly impossible, then I don't want any part of their "If we leave them alone, they'll leave us alone" cut and run strategy. I've had enough of their gutless rhetoric.
Interesting analysis---but we can be sure Menendez will compensate for any shortages in Dem votes by getting all the illegals to the polls. There's be lots of Taco Bell wrappers lying about polling places election night---with a big M scratched on them.
You have hit on something. Jon Tester is way too liberal for Montana voters, to the left even of most Montana Democrats, and if elected, he will be a vote against things like border security and defeating Islamic terrorism. That's why he has been unable to poll higher than the high 40's, in spite of all of his advantages.
It's very possible that on election day, a narrow majority of voters will hold their noses and vote for Burns, even though they dislike him and think he's a crook.
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