Ship Avoidance Graphic
Posted on 10/29/2006 2:37:19 AM PST by bd476
Super Typhoon 22W (Cimaron) Warning Nr 011
Upgraded From Typhoon 22W
01 Active Tropical Cyclone in NorthWestPac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
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Warning Position:
290600z --- Near 16.3N 123.5e
Movement Past Six Hours - 285 Degrees At 11 Kts
Position Accurate To Within 025 Nm
Position Based On Center Located By Satellite
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 123.5E
1WDPN31 PGTW 290300
Msgid/Genadmin/Navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/Jtwc// Subj/Prognostic Reasoning For Typhoon 22w Warning Nr 10// Rmks/
1. For Meteorologists.
2. Prognostic Reasoning For 290000z Oct To 030000z Nov 2006.
A. Typhoon (Ty) 22w (Cimaron), located approximately 225 NM East-Northeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked West-Northwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours. A 282358z SSSMIS image and recent animated multispectral satellite imagery indicate that the eyewall convection has intensified rapidly over the past 06 hours and the system now has an 18 NM round eye.
B. The 28/12z 500 MB analysis indicated a strong subtropical ridge extending Eastward from a high centered near 23N 112E.
There is a slight weakness in this ridge situated over Taiwan associated with the Southern end of a midlatitude trough that is currently moving quickly East across the Korean Peninsula.
Ty 22w will continue tracking West-Northwestward under the steering influence of the ridge to the North and is expected to make landfall on Luzon near Tau 18 as a 130-knot system. Ty 22W will slow slightly and weaken rapidly as it interacts with 3000-7000 foot mountains over Northern Luzon and is forecast to enter the South China Sea near Tau 36.
Afterwards, the system will track Westward to West-Southwestward under the steering influence of the ridge situated North of the system, which is oriented West-Southwest to East-Northeast.
Available dynamic aids are in good agreement with this track with the exception of WBAR, which tracks the system Northwestward into both the upper ridge and strong low-level Northeasterlies and is unrealistic, and the NCEP GFS model which tracks TY 22W South-westward after Tau 48 and reflects an excessive weakening of the system. The forecast is based on a consensus of the remaining dynamic aids.
c. Ty 22W has maintained Dual Outflow Channels with the Mid-Latitude Westerlies North of Taiwan enhancing poleward outflow.
Therefore, Ty 22w continues to rapidly intensify and is expected to reach super typhoon strength prior to landfall near Tau 18. Ty 22w will weaken rapidly over Luzon and is expected to re-intensify slightly after moving over the South China Sea but this trend is expected to be short-lived due to interaction with relatively cool, dry Northeasterly winds. The Northeasterlies are forecast to strengthen in response to surface high pressure building over East China within the next 24 hours.
The 28/12z analyses show 1-2 MB surface height rises over Eastern China as well as strong convergence at 200 MB, which support this scenario. Models are indicating a sharp increase in low-level winds near 30/00z spreading westward across the South China sea. Therefore, ty 22W is forecast to weaken steadily after Tau 48 due to increasing shear and entrainment of the drier, cooler air.
D. Current wind radii are based on persistence. Forecast wind radii are based on climatology for an average-sized system.
e. Beyond Tau 72, as stated in para c, ty 22w will weaken considerably after Tau 96 and is forecast to make landfall in Vietnam near Tau 120. This scenario is also supported by the majority of the available dynamic aids. The long range forecast track is based on a consensus of all available dynamic aids.
Forecast Team: Delta// NNNN
Monsters and Critics and Deutsche Presse-Agentur
Philippines raises alert for typhoon Cimaron
October 29, 2006
Manila - Philippine authorities on Sunday raised the alert against possible floods and landslides as typhoon Cimaron bore down on a large portion of the country.
Cimaron was expected to make landfall in the evening in the northern province of Isabela, the weather bureau said.
It has maximum sustained winds of 175 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 210 kilometres per hour.
The weather bureau said Cimaron 'has gained more strength' as it moved west north-west at 15 kilometres per hour.
Storm warnings have been raised in more than 20 provinces in the northern, central and eastern Philippines, the bureau added.
'Residents in areas under storm warning signals are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides,' a weather bureau bulletin said.
'Residents along the eastern coast are advised to be alert against storm surge or big waves generated by the storm,' it added.
In late September, almost the same portion of the Philippines, including Manila, was devastated by Typhoon Xangsane, which killed at least 219 people.
Xangsane, the worst typhoon to hit Manila in a decade, caused massive power outages, landslides, floods and other accidents as it toppled trees and other infrastructure.
It destroyed an estimated 26.6 million dollars worth of crops and infrastructure, including more than 200,000 houses, according to disaster relief officials.
Philippines raises alert for typhoon Cimaron
Japan Meterological Agency Tropical Cyclone Information
T0619 (CIMARON)
Issued at 09:00 UTC 29 Oct 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 16.4N 123.1E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 160NM
Japan Meterological Agency Tropical Cyclone Information
'We're all doomed' ping.
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Tropical Cyclone Archive | Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping |
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It's interesting that folks living in the Philippines do not typically have many advance warnings for typhoons.
Currently Super Typhoon Cimaron's maximum sustained winds near the center are 224 mph with wind gusts up to 264 mph.
This one looks like a humdinger. Would not want to be in the path of this one.
just think....after it hits.....it will be Bush's fault for not doing something sooner....sounds just like katrina....people are warned...and they choose to do nothing!!!!
the lib/dems can start another charity drive....
although half a world away.....will all the filipino homeless get to move to houston????
....for the lib/dems....this had better happen very soon...say before november 7th...so the people can vote the lib/dem party line as well...
More like 121 mph sustained with gusts to 142 mph.
Neither would I.
Coincidentally our U.S. Marines stationed in Okinawa have been in Luzon, Philippines conducting some exercises including live-fire training and also training involving the use of robots to prevent things from blowing up.
The exercises were just concluding and now Typhoon PAENG or Cameron is on its way.
Troops from Okinawa, Japan set to wrap up Philippines exercises
Kipling knew a thing or two when he wrote "White Man's Burden". "When your goal is nearest, your hope for others sought, watch sloth and heathen folly bring all your works to nought."
I hope they got our people out of there. It's going to be chaos after this one rolls through.
Thank you, ASA Vet. This is good news! That is a substantial drop in wind speeds from the reported warnings of a few hours ago found on the Naval Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
This is one more reason why I appreciate Free Republic so much. There is always someone who has expert experience and/or someone who lives in the locale.
It will be good to read from a different source which will be more up to date than the Naval Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration and the Japan Meterological Agency Tropical Cyclone Information agency.
These days one can't have too many sources of information. I am looking forward to reading from your source about Typhoon Cimaron.
Thanks ASA Vet!
That was an interesting Kipling passage, JV. Thanks.
Hopefully rescue agencies are getting up to speed on giving organized help where it's most needed.
From what I've heard, the Philippines government has been giving some warning to people in affected areas. This one is packing a powerful punch.
Bush's fault.
The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
GALE WARNING NO. 11
For strong winds associated with Typhoon PAENG (CIMARON) issued at 5:00 p.m., today, 29 October 2006
The surge of strong winds associated with Typhoon PAENG (Cimaron) is expected to affect the open and inland seaboards of Luzon.
The open sea areas of the Ilocos Region, Cagayan and Eastern seaboards of Luzon will have stormy weather. Winds of 48 to 195 kph (26 to 105 knots) are expected and sea conditions will be rough to phenomenal with wave heights of 2.5 to 14.0 meters. Open and inland sea areas of the remaining seaboards of Luzon will be cloudy with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms.
Winds of 40 to 75 kph (22 to 40 knots) are expected and sea conditions will be rough to very rough with wave heights of 2.5 to 6.0 meters.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts in these areas are advised not to venture out into the sea while bigger sea vessels especially those plying the sea areas of northern and eastern Luzon are alerted against moderate to phenomenal waves.
Watch for the next update to be issued at 5:00 am tomorrow.
Those very high mph numbers you posted were caused by converting the kmph figures, to mph believing the first unit was in kts
The 09:00 UTC 29 Oct 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
has a MXWD (maximum wind) speed of 105kt, which converts to 120.83 mph or 194.46 km/hr.
That's a Cat III on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Bump! Good thread with a lot of useful info on this storm. Following this one closely -- looks to be a dangerous one ...
The current NOAA infrared image of Super Typhoon Cimaron
Thanks Babu!
The storm has increased to a cat IV. The forcast has it increasing to a low cat V.
Looks like landfall is imminent.
SUPER TYPHOON CIMARON [PAENG/22W/0619]
T2K PUBLIC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 010A:
As of 7:00 PM local (11:00 GMT) Sun 29 October
Source: JTWC Warning #011 (US Navy/Air Force)
CIMARON (PAENG) becomes the 6th Super Typhoon of the 2006 Season...now an extremely catastrophic Category 5 howler with 1-min winds of 260-km/hr...now off the coast of Isabela.
*This typhoon might become the most powerful disturbance ever to hit Northern Luzon since Super Typhoon ZEB (ILIANG) of Oct 16, 1998...continues to exhibit an 33-km round eye. All interests in the Northern Luzon Provinces should closely monitor the progress of this very dangerous typhoon.
+ Forecast Outlook: CIMARON is expected make landfall just north of Casiguran around 8 or 9 PM tonight. This system is forecast to create a devastating scenario as it crosses Northern Luzon thru the provinces of Aurora, Quirino, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao tonight and shall be over Benguet (Baguio City) & La Union area at sunrise tomorrow morning (Mon Oct 30). The 3 to 5-day (Nov 1-3) long-range forecast shows CIMARON over the South China Sea moving on a West to WSW path, weakening and shall make its 2nd landfall along Vietnam as a downgraded Tropical Storm by Friday morning, Nov 3.
+ Effects: The system's Inner Bands is now spreading over Isabela, Aurora, Quirino & Nueva Vizcaya...becoming worse as the EyeWall approaches the said provinces tonight. Typhoon conditions with extreme force can be expected along the EyeWall with more than 300 millimeters of rainfall expected. The rest of Luzon remains under its outer bands. Moderate winds with light to sometimes heavy rainfall can be expected over the affected areas under Cimaron's outer bands. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of moer than 18 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of where the center of Cimaron makes landfall in Aurora-Isabela Area of Northern Luzon, Philippines tonight.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 7:00 PM Sun October 29
Location of Eye: 16.4º N Lat 122.6º E Lon (Satellite Fix)
Distance 1: 60 km (32 nm) ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 215 km (115 nm) East of Baguio City
Distance 3: 270 km (145 nm) SE of Vigan City
Distance 4: 165 km (90 nm) SE of Tuguegarao City
Max Sust Winds (1-min avg): 260 kph (140 kts)
Peak Wind Gusts: 315 kph (170 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 5
Central Pressure: 898 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
General Direction: Northern Aurora-Isabela
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 ft (10.0 m)
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Time/Date: 7:00 PM Sun October 29
Cat 5
Maximum sustained winds 140 kts (161 mph)
Peak wind gusts 170 kts (196 mph)
Maximum sea height 33 ft. near center
898 mb
As I was falling asleep last night, Art Bell was talking about it, him being in Manila and all.
The lowest ever recorded was Typhoon Tip at 870 mb. That was in the western Pacific in 1979.
The lowest ever in the Atlantic basin was Hurricane Wilma in Oct 2005 at 882 mb.
Did Art give any particulars, i.e., how bad they were expecting it there on the scene, etc.?
Not that I remember, but I was asleep before the bottom of the hour.
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