Posted on 10/29/2006 11:49:36 AM PST by Alex1977
Democrat John Tester The campaign of Republican Senator Conrad Burns has inched forward in recent few weeks. But the third Rasmussen Reports poll this month of Montana's closely watched U.S. Senate race shows that Democrat Jon Tester is still slightly ahead, 51% to 47% (see crosstabs).
When leaners are included, it’s Tester by three, 51% to 48%.
Montana remains in the Toss-Up category for our Senate Balance of Power summary.
Tester led by seven points on October 11, and by just two on October 18.
We have polled this race more than a dozen times in 2006 and Senator Burns has never reached the 50 percent level of support in any of them. Tester has hit or passed that mark four times now, including three of our last five polls.
Still, Montana is generally a Republican leaning state. Despite the difficult political environment for the GOP in 2006, 50% say they'd vote for the Republican if their vote would determine which party controls the Senate. Just 47% say they'd vote to put Democrats in charge.
Montana is also a battleground state—one of a handful most likely to decide which party controls the Senate--and
Republicans are doing what they can to put Burns over the top.
A few weeks ago, it appeared as if the national party had written off Burns’ chances. Now, as the Burns has cut into Tester’s lead, President Bush and Vice President Cheney are expected to campaign here soon. Former Senator Bob Dole has also done so in recent days, stressing the value of the incumbent's seniority. (Burns is seeking his fourth term.)
By a small margin, voters tend to trust Republicans more than Democrats on the economy. By a 51% to 40% margin they also trust Republicans more on Iraq.
Half of all voters and 84% of Republicans say the economy is in good or excellent shape. Most Democrats (58%) say it's no better than "fair."
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2006 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election. We update the President's Job Approval Ratings daily and are polling competitive Senate and Governor's races at least once a month in 2006.
Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
The telephone survey of 500 Likely was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 26, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. (see Methodology)
Holding this seat would completely kill any chances of the RATs taking the Senate. Lets hope Burns can pull it out.
What's in the wind in your State? It seems we can lose three seats (for Congress).
If Montana elects Tester, we should de-annex the state and give it to Canada.
I think Burns is going to pull it out and win this senate election, Tester is too much of a liberal kook even in a libertarian leaning State like Montana.
The more voters think about this, the better Burns looks..........beware of a late suprise
I personally think all three seats could still go either way. Sodrel, my Congressman, looks to be in th best shape of the three, but his seat had been held by the RATs for decades (Lee Hamilton's seat) until Sodrel won it last time. Without Bush at the top of the ticket to help him, it could slip back to the RATs again.
Hostettler and Chocola both face tough candidates, and while both of them have shown a knack for winning close ones over the years, they have not faced this bad a climate in Indiana.
If we manage to hold all three seats, we hold the House. if we lose all three, we are in for a very long evening on Tuesday.
Burns ain't the best candidate but Montana voting for an outright socialist? c'mon people! GOTV!
Don't be so sure, they went for Jacob Thorkelson in a landslide back in '38.
"Despite the difficult political environment for the GOP in 2006, 50% say they'd vote for the Republican if their vote would determine which party controls the Senate. Just 47% say they'd vote to put Democrats in charge."
If voters realized the stakes, they wouldnt put a leftwing Democrat in there. Tester is leftwinger who raised money in San Fransisco to be competitive in this race.
Tester is wrong on taxes, he is wrong of war on terror, the kind of guy who opposes the patriot act, etc.
He will be nothing but a lackey for Schumer and hillary and Kennedy, and that totally misrepresents what Montana wants.
he's not the kind of senator who can be trusted on
its all about turnout in this one.
Agreed as it is not surprising as Burns has picked up a lot especially after the debates, Tester is not even bothered about looking moderate and he has portrayed himself a moveon.org type liberal. This is not going to play well in a libertarian, conservative State.
Who failed? Was it Montana or the corrupt pork loving Conrad Burns?
Do not blame Montana for the failure of Sen. Burns. Montana has the difficult choice of selecting a crook or selecting a Democrat. The GOP failed Montana by placing Burns on the ballot. Montana hasn't failed anyone.
How has your home state been performing on electing Republicans? If you think states like Montana should be de-annexed just for electing a Democrat then there won't be any states remaining.
I always assume a 5% fraudulent polling factor operating in favor of the Democrat.
> Montana has the difficult choice of selecting a crook or selecting a Democrat <
I disagree.
Burns comes across as a bumbler to be sure, but I haven't seen where he's been proven to be a crook.
In the meantime, Tester has revealed himself as a radical extremist -- far, far to the left of the average voter in Montana -- by saying among other things that he wants to repeal the Patriot Act.
So if Montanans should be so blind as to elect a jerk like Tester, then I'll be for turning the whole state over to Alberta.
I'd like to see you try! Oh, by the way, did I mention that Montana has a lot of nukes? Or that the terrain in Western Montana would make the terrain in Afghanistan look like a cakewalk?
Montana is not going to have a Queen anytime soon. And Montanans don't like people from out of state telling them what to do.
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