Posted on 11/06/2006 6:00:40 AM PST by 11th_VA
Here's the last of my posts on Tuesday's election, this one on the House of Representatives. What makes the House harder to predict is (1) local issues are messing with the general "national" trend in several districts, most to the detriment of Republicans so far, and (2) polling in House districts is, um, an interesting art. Already, a well-respected pollster (John Zogby) got caught polling people in the wrong district, twice. Still, it is what it is, and more to the point, yours truly can still point my Canadian friends to the seats to watch.
Keep in mind, we don't name our districts; we just number them. As before with the Senate, the list below shows the states and districts to watch and the times the polls close there, listed in chronological order, and like the Senate list, all times are EST.
6 PM - Indiana (2, 7, 8, and 9) and Kentucky (2-4): As one would expect, all of the Kentucky seats and three of the Indiana ones are currently Republican. It may surprise some that I include a Democrat on the "endangered" list (Indiana Seventh incumbent Julia Carson). While it might not be well known, there are about half-a-dozen Democratic seats that looked competitive, and this was before the latest round of polls that saw the GOP dramatically improving its position on the "generic" nationwide House ballot. If Carson loses, the GOP will likely ride out the storm and keep the House. As for the Republican-held seats, I think the Repubs would be happy keep 2 of 3 in each state. If the GOP can sweep in either state (not including Carson in IN), they have the inside track to keep the House. Likewise, if the Dems can take 2 out of 3 in either, they have the early edge.
7 PM - Virginia (2), Florida (13, 16, and 22), New Hampshire (1 and 2), and Georgia (8 and 12): The seats in first three states are all Republican-held, both Georgia seats have Dem incumbents running against former GOP incumbents. IMHO, the Republicans have to hold Virginia 2nd and both New Hampshire seats, while at present none of the Florida seats look good. Still, the 16th (Mark Foley's old seat) is far more competitive than anyone imagined. Under Florida rules, although Foley resigned, he must remain on the ballot; if he "wins," Republican State legislator Joe Negron would go to Washington. MSM will play a nice joke on the GOP if they can win here, if you hear "CNN projects Mark Foley has won in Florida's 16th district", turn out the lights on the Dems prospects for a House majority. The other two seats could do just as much damage, but it doesn't look good right now (note: the Florida northwest panhandle keeps its polls open until 8, but none of the districts cited are there).
As for the Georgia seats, it's been a while since I've seen polling, but Georgia 8 was held by Mac Collins for years; he gave it up to run for Senate in 2004. He's going after his old job now, currently held by Democrat Jim Marshall. Georgia 12 is a rematch between Democratic incumbent John Barrow and Max Burns. The GOP tends to do far better in Georgia than polls suggest anyway, so these look good. Either win for the GOP would be a shot in the arm; both might mess up the Dem plans for a majority just enough to put it out of commission.
7:30 PM - Ohio (1, 2, 15, and 18), West Virginia (1), and North Carolina (11): West Virginia has the Democratic incumbent (Alan Mollohan); there's only one poll here, and Mollohan is up 10, but he is also deeply corrupt, so strange things can - stress, can - happen here. North Carolina's 11th is currently represented by Republican Charles Taylor, he's fighting what the polls are calling a losing battle against Democrat Heath Shuler. If Taylor manages the upset, it could mean more GOP incumbents will survive and surprise. Ditto any of the three incumbents in Ohio (1, 2, and 15). The 18th is an open seat last held by disgraced GOPer Bob Ney, if the GOP can win the 18th, the miracle comeback is a reality.
8 PM - Connecticut (2, 4, and 5), Illinois (6 and 8), Pennsylvania (4, 6-8, and 10), and Texas (22): Outside of Illinois, all seats are held by Republicans seeking re-election; Illinois 6 is an open Republican seat (Henry Hyde is retiring), while Illinois 8 is held by Democrat Melissa Bean. What makes the Illinois race interesting is that Bean won in 2004 by only four points, in a terrific year for Democrats in Illinois. 2006 is not nearly so good with an unpopular Dem Governor and no Senate race. Meanwhile, a third party candidate is taking votes away from her, and her Republican challenger is already within the margin of error. Illinois 6, by contrast, has been trending Democrat for years - Hyde's name was all that kept the seat in GOP hands. If the GOP can win either Illinois 6 or 8, it could be a good night for them. The Pennsylvania incumbents look to be in bad shape, in part driven by Santorum's weak performance in the Senate race, but as Santorum is picking up some steam, this may pull some of them through. Least likely to win is Don Sherwood, who was accused of choking his mistress (voters didn't know he had a mistress until that became news). If Don Sherwood wins, the GOP will win the House and gain seats. Sherwood only has to do three things to win, but - to borrow a line from Mark Shields - nobody knows what those three things are. So don't bet on this one.
The more interesting state will be Connecticut. Bob Simmons (2) seems OK, Chris Shays (4) looks to be in deep trouble, and Nancy Johnson (5) is in the fight of her life. I'm going out on a limb here - whoever wins the majority of these three CT seats will likely win the House. Texas 22, meanwhile, is a mess, Tom DeLay tried to get off the ballot, a judge wouldn't let him, and the GOP was forced to go with a write-in campaign. To make matters worse, the GOP candidate Karen (UPDATE: Oops! Shelley) Sekula-Gibbs, has a less-than-perfect name for a write-in candidacy. The Dems have felt this one was in their pocket for months. If the GOP can pull this out, its a body-blow to the Dem majority plans.
9 PM - Arizona (5 and 8), Colorado (4 and 7), New York (20, 24-26, 29), Minnesota (6), New Mexico (1), and Wisconsin (8): All Republican seats, all in trouble (except for the Minnesota seat). NY 24 is an open GOP seat, and looks as good as gone; NY 29 (GOP incumbent Randy Kuhl) would appear to be gone, too, but the last poll there is more than two weeks old, before the GOP comeback began. IMHO, the GOP needs all of these except NY 24 and 29, Colorado 7, and Arizona 8. Arizona 8 is the seat where anti-illegal immigration activist Randy Graf is running for Jim Kolbe's seat. Kolbe was one Arizona's most liberal Republicans; Graf would be among the most conservative. Graf's had trouble putting the party back together (the primary was late and nasty), but he might pull it out. If Graf wins, the GOP might be better off than even its most optimistic supporters think. Don't surprised if Kuhl survives, too.
10 PM - Iowa (1 and 3) and Nevada (2 and 3): Both Nevada Republican seats (2 is open, 3 is held by Jon Porter) seem to have stabilized for the GOP - stress seem. Meanwhile, Iowa 1 looks like a sure Dem pickup (it was the seat GOP incumbent Jim Nussle left to run for governor), but Nussle has come on strong in his race (he all but erased a double-digit deficit this week). That could have a greater impact, however, on Iowa 3, where Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell is being outraised (i.e., he has less $$ for advertising) by Republican Jeff Lamberti. No poll has been taken here in almost two months. Iowa 3 could be a vital pickup for Republicans.
11 PM - Idaho (1), California (4 and 11), and Washington (8): Outside of Idaho (an open GOP seat), all three are held by Republican incumbents battling for another term (Pombo in 4, Doolittle in 11, and Reichert in Washington). If the Dems can knock off one of these incumbents (or win the Idaho seat), it could provide cover against a surprise loss earlier in the night - if such a loss comes around, that is.
Prediction: This is a lot tougher, what with the various local ebbs and flows which could override a national "wave" at the latter's outer edges. For months, Republicans have been hoping these local issues could outlast a Democratic tide. However, it is the Republicans who have been surging in the nationwide polls.
I think that Republican "wave," while not exactly tsunami level, is genuine. Why? I look at the Washington Post poll. While the poll shows the Democrats ahead, it's only 6 points, and the Post has a history of inflating the Democratic numbers (they had the Dems with a 5-point edge in the 1994 elections; the GOP had a 3-point edge when the actual votes were counted). More to the point for me, for the first time in a year and a half, a majority of voters believed the President was telling the truth (or what he thought it was) when he called for the liberation of Iraq in 2003.
That is huge.
So, I'm following the same logic I followed in the Senate races. The close races (within the margin of error) will all tip one way - and I think that will be the Republicans' way. So, based on the latest polling data (which, again, can be a mess at the House district level), I see the Republicans losing 16 seats (Indiana 8, Kentucky 3, North Carolina 11, Ohio 1, 15, and 18, Connecticut 4, Florida 13, 16, and 22, Illinois 6, Pennsylvania 10, Arizona 8, Colorado 7, New York 24, and Iowa 1), but also taking 5 seats from the Democrats (Indiana 6, Georgia 8 and 12, Illinois 6, Iowa 3), for a net GOP loss of 11 seats (and watch Arizona 8 as a possible upset special). Final prediction: GOP 221 (down 11 from 232), Dems 214 (up 11 from 202+1 independent leftist who caucused with them - he's the fellow Vermont is about to elect to the U.S. Senate).
If I'm right (and that's a big if, given my pre-2004 history), there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth in Washington, and all over MSM. For all I know, Keith Olbermann's head could explode.
Relax, Keith; I'm just kidding.
bttt
One nit: KY does not have an all-Republican House delegation; Democrat Ben Chandler holds the KY-06.
buren(r) is now polling ahead of the dem in sarasota seat now.i know that i have worked for them this weekend .
I'm sure they have their spin ready.
The vote was not a referendum on the President, after all. It was a referendum on patriotism.
We're in a war, and the voters wanted to support their country.
Democrats were the most patriotic voters of all, because they held back from seizing power when it was in their grasp.
This perfectly positions the Dems for total domination in 2008
blah, blah, blah
I will be very shocked if Northrup loses in KY-3.
If true ... we'll never hear the end of their 'victory'
there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth in Washington, and all over MSM
I really hope so.
All Republican wins; "Expected. Not a surprise. A hold."
All Democrat wins; "Signals a shift! A big movement! The beginning of the end for the GOP!"
There will be MASSIVE spin as early as possible while the MSM attempts to portray a Democrat landslide in order to affect races in the Central, Mountain, and Pacific timezones.
You have Illinois 6 in both columns (losing and winning for GOP). Which is it?
I think Foley's, DeLay's (TX) and Harris (FL) have a pretty good chance of a win for GOP.
I didn't write the report, I just posted it.
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