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Swing District Analysis
NFRA Newsletter ^ | November 12, 2006 | Grover Norquist

Posted on 11/13/2006 6:18:22 PM PST by WOSG

There are now 58 House Democrats elected in districts that voted for Bush in 2004. There are now only nine House Republicans elected in districts that voted for Kerry in 2004. Note the larger Bush Margins than Kerry margins. Those 58 Dem’s are in more difficult districts than the nine R’s.

If in 2008 the R's only won those districts that performed 58% or more for Bush in 2004 they would pick up 18seats.

If in 2008, the R's only win those districts that performed 55% or more for Bush in 2004, they would pick up 32 seats.

Remember, when Bush won in 2004 it was with only 51% of the vote. This is a low party vote for president, not a Reagan landslide number.


58 Democrats in Districts Carried by Bush

U.S. Rep.

District

Bush %

U.S. Rep.

District

Bush %

Alan Mollohan

WV-1

58%

Mike McIntyre

NC-7

56%

Allen Boyd

FL-2

54%

Mike Ross

AR-4

51%

Bart Gordon

TN-6

60%

Nick Rahall

WV-3

53%

Bart Stupak

MI-1

53%

Rick Boucher

VA-9

59%

Ben Chandler

KY-6

58%

Ruben Hinojosa

TX-15

55%

Bob Etheridge

NC-2

54%

Sanford Bishop

GA-2

54%

Brian Baird

WA-3

50%

Solomon Ortiz

TX-27

55%

Bud Cramer

AL-5

60%

Stephanie Herseth

SD-AL

60%

Charlie Melancon

LA-3

58%

Ted Strickland

OH-6

51%

Chet Edwards

TX-17

70%

Tim Bishop

NY-1

49%

Collin Peterson

MN-7

55%

Tim Holden

PA-17

58%

Dan Boren

OK-2

59%

Vic Snyder

AR-2

51%

Darlene Hooley

OR-5

50%

Harry Mitchell

AZ-5

54%

Dennis Cardoza

CA-18

50%

Gabrielle Giffords

AZ-8

53%

Dennis Moore

KS-3

55%

Jerry McNerney

CA-11

54%

Earl Pomeroy

ND-AL

63%

Tim Mahoney

FL-16

54%

Gene Taylor

MS-4

68%

Joe Donnelly

IN-2

56%

Henry Cuellar

TX-28

53%

Brad Ellsworth

IN-8

56%

Ike Skelton

MO-4

58%

Baron Hill

IN-9

59%

Jim Marshall

GA-3

55%

Nancy Boyda

KS-2

59%

Jim Matheson

UT-2

66%

Tim Walz

MN-1

51%

John Salazar

CO-3

55%

Heath Shuler

NC-11

57%

John Spratt

SC-5

57%

Carol Shea-Porter

NH-1

51%

John Tanner

TN-8

53%

Kristen Gillibrand

NY-20

54%

Leonard Boswell

IA-3

50%

Mike Arcuri

NY-24

53%

Lincoln Davis

TN-4

58%

Zack Space

OH-18

57%

Loretta Sanchez

CA-47

50%

Jason Altmire

PA-4

54%