Swing District Analysis

NFRA Newsletter ^ | November 12, 2006 | Grover Norquist

[WOSG]

There are now 58 House Democrats elected in districts that voted for Bush in 2004. There are now only nine House Republicans elected in districts that voted for Kerry in 2004. Note the larger Bush Margins than Kerry margins. Those 58 Dem’s are in more difficult districts than the nine R’s.

If in 2008 the R's only won those districts that performed 58% or more for Bush in 2004 they would pick up 18seats.

If in 2008, the R's only win those districts that performed 55% or more for Bush in 2004, they would pick up 32 seats.

Remember, when Bush won in 2004 it was with only 51% of the vote. This is a low party vote for president, not a Reagan landslide number.

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58 Democrats in Districts Carried by Bush
	U.S. Rep.	District	Bush %		U.S. Rep.	District		Bush %
Alan Mollohan	WV-1	58%		Mike McIntyre	NC-7	56%
Allen Boyd	FL-2	54%			Mike Ross	AR-4	51%
Bart Gordon	TN-6	60%		Nick Rahall	WV-3	53%
Bart Stupak	MI-1	53%		Rick Boucher	VA-9	59%
Ben Chandler	KY-6	58%			Ruben Hinojosa	TX-15	55%
Bob Etheridge	NC-2	54%		Sanford Bishop	GA-2	54%
Brian Baird		WA-3	50%		Solomon Ortiz	TX-27	55%
Bud Cramer	AL-5	60%		Stephanie Herseth	SD-AL	60%
Charlie Melancon	LA-3	58%			Ted Strickland	OH-6	51%
Chet Edwards	TX-17	70%		Tim Bishop	NY-1	49%
Collin Peterson		MN-7	55%		Tim Holden	PA-17	58%
Dan Boren	OK-2	59%		Vic Snyder	AR-2	51%
Darlene Hooley	OR-5	50%			Harry Mitchell	AZ-5	54%
Dennis Cardoza	CA-18	50%		Gabrielle Giffords	AZ-8	53%
Dennis Moore		KS-3	55%		Jerry McNerney	CA-11	54%
Earl Pomeroy	ND-AL	63%		Tim Mahoney	FL-16	54%
Gene Taylor	MS-4	68%			Joe Donnelly	IN-2	56%
Henry Cuellar	TX-28	53%		Brad Ellsworth	IN-8	56%
Ike Skelton		MO-4	58%		Baron Hill	IN-9	59%
Jim Marshall	GA-3	55%		Nancy Boyda	KS-2	59%
Jim Matheson	UT-2	66%			Tim Walz	MN-1	51%
John Salazar	CO-3	55%		Heath Shuler	NC-11	57%
John Spratt		SC-5	57%		Carol Shea-Porter	NH-1	51%
John Tanner	TN-8	53%		Kristen Gillibrand	NY-20	54%
Leonard Boswell	IA-3	50%			Mike Arcuri	NY-24	53%
Lincoln Davis	TN-4	58%		Zack Space	OH-18	57%
Loretta Sanchez		CA-47	50%		Jason Altmire	PA-4	54%
Marion Berry	AR-1	52%		Chris Carney	PA-10	60%
Melissa Bean	IL-8	56%			Steve Kagen	WI-8	55%
9 Republicans in Districts Carried by Kerry
U.S. Rep.	District	Kerry %
Charlie Dent	PA-15	50%			Jim Gerlach	PA-6	51%
Christopher Shays	CT-4	54%		Mark Kirk	IL-10	53%
Dave Reichert*		WA-8	51%		Michael Castle	DE-AL	53%
Heather Wilson*	NM-1	51%		Rob Simmons*	CT-2	54%
James Walsh	NY-25	50%
*indicates official election results not in

[WOSG]

These are the seats that are most 'in play' to take back in 2008. With 58 seats up for grabs, there is rich pickings.

[MNJohnnie]

Boy that is the best news I have read since Nov 7th. Thanks for the lift. I have been dwelling how hard it was for us to get there. I should of remembered the world is a much different place in 2006. It is easier to do things the 2nd time.

The interesting thing about 2008 is for the 1st time in my political life there is NOT an Heir Apparent on either side. Before this there was always some clear heir on either side. 2008 is going to be really messy for both sides.

[Dark Wing]

ping

[WOSG]

Hang in there ... the pendulum always swings back.

If the House goes liberal, we will win back the House. We will smoke out the liberals in conservative districts like happened in 1994.

[KoRn]

"These are the seats that are most 'in play' to take back in 2008"

Rick Boucher

VA-9

59%

The Republicans won't get this one. Boucher could get caught with both a live boy and a dead woman and still win by 30% points. Having said that, he still votes against gun control every chance he gets.

[dufekin]

To capture any of these 58 seats, the Republicans will need to forgo their historic policy of deference to Democrats who purport to espouse conservatism while in their districts. They also must find credible candidates and fund them sufficiently to expose the liberal voting records that these purported conservatives accumulate in the confines of Washington, DC.

Republicans also must nationalize the Congressional elections every single time, regardless of the poll numbers, rather than run on "local issues," a euphemism for insufferable boasting about odious pork-barrel spending. Most Americans find such spending corrupt, petty, and foolish--even if it occurs in their district. The federal government must cut spending to pay off the federal debt, and political pork only takes money away from our troops in the field who perform the primary duty of the national enterprise.

[WOSG]

Why not beat him? Tie him to Pelosi....
Boucher is a Nancy Pelosi Boy now.

[WOSG]

"To capture any of these 58 seats, the Republicans will need to forgo their historic policy of deference to Democrats who purport to espouse conservatism while in their districts. They also must find credible candidates and fund them sufficiently to expose the liberal voting records that these purported conservatives accumulate in the confines of Washington, DC.

Republicans also must nationalize the Congressional elections every single time, regardless of the poll numbers, rather than run on "local issues," a euphemism for insufferable boasting about odious pork-barrel spending. Most Americans find such spending corrupt, petty, and foolish--even if it occurs in their district."

You are absolutely correct.

[Maelstorm]

I agree Republicans should always run on a national platform and clear issues. They didn't this time and it hurt them. The strategy was disjointed.

[Jim Noble]

Sorry, but they're not "rich pickings".

Exactly the same thing is seen in the Senate.

President Bush won 25 states with >54% of the vote in 2004. Those states had 11 Democrat senators prior to Tuesday. Now they have 14.

John Kerry won 13 states with >54% of the vote in 2004.Those states had 3 Republican senators prior to Tuesday. Now they have two, both from Maine. IOW, except for Maine, NO STATE which Kerry won big has a Republican in the Senate. TEN STATES which Bush won big have Democrats in the Senate, and four of them have TWO Democrats in the senate.

Republicans are not competitive - at all - in deep blue states. Democrats are competitive - very competitive - in deep red states.

Unless this changes, the Senate cannot be won back.

[FreeReign]

Pete King's (R) district voted for Bush?

[Aetius]

That's true, and while the GOP should stay positive about winning back the House and Senate, I think the days of Reaganesque landslides are over. I hope I'm wrong. I'd love to see a conservative Republican wipe out Hillary, or Obama, or whatever phony moderate the Democtats nominate, but unless the Republican candidate can repeat the Reagan-Nixon feat of winning well over 60% of the white vote, then there will be no landslide.

[Clintonfatigued]

Some of the newly elected Democrats (Nick Lampson, Chris Carney, and Tim Mahoney, for example) are not likely to survive 2008.

[WOSG]

The Senate in 2008 looks a bit thin, but there are maybe 3-4 or so pickup possibilities. We could win back the Senate, barely in a good election..

What make these rich pickings in the House IMHO is the ability to tie the Democrat 'blue dogs' to their very liberal Democrat leadership. We should definitely look for bringing back 10 or more of these seats, at a minimum.

We didnt have leverage to do that when the GOP was the majority, but the ballgame changes when the Dems are the majority.

Perhaps one way to calibrate this is to look at ADA, NARAL, ACU, AFLCIO, and NTU ratings... and tie every Congresscritter as a "Liberal Democrat" who did "XZ" and help Nancy Pelosi do ABC.... the issues will pop up like mushrooms after a storm as the liberal warhorses, Conyers, Waxman, Dingell, etc. do their predictable liberal, confiscatory, thing.

[KoRn]

"Why not beat him?"

I've often pondered why this hasn't happened. He's been in office for as long as I can remember. It's puzzling how our county voted for Allen over Webb by 60% to 40%, probably Allen's highest vote in the state by percentage, yet Boucher got about that same percentage, and he's a dem. The results were similar for Gore and Kerry as well, Gore/Kerry getting only 30-35% while Boucher being a dem gets 60-65% of the vote in the same elections. Apparently the locals here believe Boucher is separate from the national dem liberals. I've also noticed Boucher gets a higher ACU rating on election years.

[watsonfellow]

If we get our A game up and recruit even better than we did in 2002 and 2004, then we could do well in the Senate.

We could be competitive in seats in Ark, LA, South Dakota, Montana, and even Michigan and West Virginia.

Think about it, at this point in 2004 if you would have told me that the Dems would have won in PA, Montana, Virginia, Ohio, etc...

I would have laughed!

The dems realize that they had to act like no seat was out of bounds, so do we!

[WOSG]

"The dems realize that they had to act like no seat was out of bounds, so do we!"

I agree!

The Democrats contest *every* seat, and dont give up, and dont mind the long shot races.

When we discussed the Senate races in a thread, someone declared that the seat was not winnable. Hogwash. Montana this year proves that every race is winnable; and that wasnt even a good candidate. (Dems dont seem to mind voting for 2nd rate dunderheads.)

Your choice of targets is about right... we should be able to take MT, ND, LA, and possibly Ark and WV with good candidates. Also MI is a good possibility.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Rep. Denny Rehberg in Montana might take another shot at Baucus now that he's in the minority, and if he beats Baucus, he may well be the one that flips control back to the GOP. I'm sure we'll field a strong challenger to Landrieu here in Louisiana. I hope we get somebody to run against Johnson in SD, we could certainly use that seat.

[WOSG]

Another pick for MT would be Marc Racicot.

In SD, I think the top guy would be Gov Johannes (sp?).

Of course, the other trick is not to lose any GOP seats, and that may happen in Maine if susan collins or snowe retires. With so few blue state seats in GOP hands we are getting to our 'natural low' in Senate representation.

[misterrob]

If Democrats are competitive in some place I don't see how those places could be considered deep red.